S5 E1 - NFL 2026 Futures Betting Preview

We are back!! 

Austin from Ajax has returned and we are setting youup for your 2026-2027 betting season

We talk Futures!

03:13 Introduction to the Overrated Experience Podcast
04:12 NFL Season Kickoff and Betting Insights
07:33 AFC East Analysis: Teams and Futures
15:10 Quarterback Battles and Team Dynamics
22:20 AFC North Overview: Coaching Changes and Predictions
32:10 AFC South Division Analysis
39:06 AFC West Division Insights
44:10 NFC East Division Breakdown
52:57 NFC North Division Overview
56:07 Lions' Likability and Division Prospects
57:03 AFC South Analysis and Baker Mayfield's Future
59:27 NFC West Overview and Team Dynamics
01:08:10 Super Bowl Value Plays and MVP Predictions

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Transcript

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Kyle Blondin (03:02)
Welcome back to the overrated experience sports and sports binning podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Blondet, along with our friendly neighborhood man from Ajax. Say hello.

Austin from Ajax (03:13)
It's awesome for me, Jax Baby. We're back.

Kyle Blondin (03:15)
Alright, here we go. It's been quite a while since we've gone to the airways, but we're back because guess what? It's NFL season closing in on us, and this is where the overrated experience was born based on NFL season. So for you folks joining us for the first time, the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast is a sports betting and sports podcast where we look at the betting world from the eyes of a regular person, a regular Joe,

What you call a square better and hope you guys can relate to the conversation. our picks are for fun. They're not looking for you to win your millions, believe me. please do not take what we say with a grain of salt. you can also follow the overrated experience on X at the at overrated EXPER two. That's overrated EXPER two. So let's get her going. And Austin, it's been a while. So what have you been up to?

Austin from Ajax (04:13)
not much. Busy at work. haven't been too on top of football. I got a lot of fantasy leagues to manage this year. I got three leagues I gotta start today, so that'll be interesting. it's always fun though.

Kyle Blondin (04:25)
Yeah, I think a lot of people are scrambling to get out of, you know, the World Cup base their you know baseball fantasy and and dive into football. And not only it's fantasy football, you got survivor pools, you got futures, and futures what we're gonna focus on here today, predominantly division winners and Super Bowl winners, maybe some individual awards and you know what talk about the general state of the NFL and some of the big stories that each team faces.

So let's let's get to it. But I want to make sure that we I think we're gonna start doing is making sure that we level set here that there is over time since we've last talked I I hear online about a lot of people that are you know having problems, you know, you know, slowing down and being you know, looking at the sports betting world as more of a pastime and a hobby versus trying to make the retirement plan based on

trying to win a you 18 game parlay so just be careful out there bet towards your budget and expect to lose what you're putting up so make sure you can manage that if you can or stay away or take a break because guess what there's always a game tomorrow so it's just want to throw that out there all right so nfl coming to us like just it's on top of us man we're in preseason have you been actually watching any of the preseason at all

Austin from Ajax (05:50)
no, I I've been following the scores, but watching no. I've never been much of a preseason watcher. Saw the Cardinals lost last night, seen there's one team that made a comeback, but I I don't know how important it is. What about you? Do you think preseason actually holds importance, like information things to learn from?

Kyle Blondin (06:10)
I've my it might obviously for, you know, the camps and you know, the teams putting the rosters together. Yeah. I guess if you want to look at it from a team perspective, looking at how to fill the final spots of a roster or who maybe you want to put on your practice squad. Yeah. And and maybe the odd battle is it is it really happening? We'll get into Cleveland. is that really a quarterback battle that's being won or lost in the preseason? I don't know. But

I I don't take much stock in I know a lot of people are heavily heavy betters and enjoy the preseason as far as betting, but I'm not one of those guys. So yeah, to answer your question. Not so into the preseason. I keep an eye on it, keep an eye on the stories, especially the injuries. And the injuries in the NFL are absolutely key. You know, you got some key guys that are gonna be gone for multiple weeks, maybe not even the season. So

A lot of weapons are on the sidelines for a lot of these teams that we really gotta account for when we're looking at the futures of how these teams would are gonna do this season. All right, so we're gonna dive into it to get to our listeners to make sure that they have what they need when they're putting their futures bets in before the kickoff of the 2026-27 season. And we'll kick it off in the AFC East. So the AFC East last year, surprisingly, the New England Patriots were the team.

That

was the story. You know, Mike Frabel returning. By the way, have you heard of Mike Frabel? Anything going on in the offseason there?

Austin from Ajax (07:40)
man, a lot of g stuff going on in the off season. But he's

Kyle Blondin (07:43)
Okay. So what

Austin from Ajax (07:44)
still the coach and you know, at the end of the day it's like does should that really have any impact on his coaching? You know it will because of the media, but it's like, you know, for me I'm almost looking at it as it's a separate thing from the game. Probably shouldn't be as looked at too much, even though it's kind of a terrible thing that he did, but yeah, that was one of the crazy stories I've actually heard.

Kyle Blondin (08:07)
So here it is. If your value as a coach is obviously Mike Vrabel t as ta takes this Patriots team to the Super Bowl, lose and lose to the Super Bowl, to the Seahawks, but where would you rank Mike Frabel as far as head coaches? Would you put him in the top tier?

Austin from Ajax (08:24)
I think honestly yes, but I also say it because, you know, I'm not very high on the Patriots team itself. So I think last year it really did like without that coaching, without that level of coaching, I don't think there's any way that they're actually there. So you know what, I think I would honestly going into the season, at least on paper, put him top five coach.

Kyle Blondin (08:44)
Right. So let's put let's put the fact that he's a top five coach. he just took him to the Super Bowl. That is the difference in the NFL that if he was a bottom five coach and the results were not there, he would not he would not be here. Some it's simple as that. Like the NFL works in mysterious ways. And what I mean by that is that as long as you can produce, you have a home here in the NFL. So let's not kid ourselves if this is the bottom tier NFL coach.

You know, year one, year two of a career. See you later. Gone. That's it. So Vrabel, he because he's top tier, he'll be coaching this team. Now the Patriots, although getting to the Super Bowl, nice run in the plus, they had a lot of things going their way. You know,

Austin from Ajax (09:29)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (09:29)
a Bo Nicks injury going into the conference championship, a lot of things. The Bills having quite you know a bit of a down year. However, the Bills from a betting perspective, with new coach Joe Brady, are minus 135 to win the division.

And I'll just go down the list here. Patriots are number two plus one thirty-five. Then it drops off a cliff. the Jets are number three. Dolphins are number four. It always seems that the AFC has either a like has one or two top shelf teams and then it just drops off a cliff. And that's what we're seeing this year. Do you agree with the rankings that are Bills, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins ranking in this division?

Austin from Ajax (10:07)
I agree with the rankings in terms of order one through four for this division, but I don't agree with the odds that I'm seeing. I see for the Buffalo Bills, I see a seventy four percent return if you place a bet on them winning the division. And that to me is too much. I think it should be more at a forty percent return. I think I think for sure the Bills are winning this division. I think the New England Patriots are competent, but I don't think they were the team they were last year. I think a lot of things had to fall right. And you know, Buffalo

Is also due for a bounce back. You know, they they were on the downturn as well.

Kyle Blondin (10:41)
Yeah, it's a big you know what you you make a valid point, right? Like I think we're not sold on what the Patriots are. So the Bills, for example, they have new quarterback, Joe Brady. It's quarterback, new head coach Joe Brady, which was the former offensive coordinator. the Bills are at that point in their, you know, their window of time with Josh Allen that they gotta keep throwing, you know, a a Super Bowl run, mix things up a little bit as Josh Allen's their guy.

And they're thinking this is the you know the change that get riding show get re getting rid of Sean McDermott is the choice. So interesting in Buffalo, minus one thirty five. If you're looking to put a nice little healthy wager on that, you're right. There might be some good value there. Now, any just going through these teams and some of the stories, what what have you, you know, heard about the Bills new stadium? I mean, it looked on the outside look pretty damn good. but a lot of folks are complaining about us obstructed views. Bill's mafia, not too happy.

Austin from Ajax (11:37)
Yeah, I wonder I like I've seen the pictures and some of them are awful. Like I I I seen this one picture and I don't even know how they did this, but it's like it's sitting right in front of like the glass the glass plating. Like so it's like you're pretty much looking through glass the entire game. There there's some some pictures I've seen like you can't see the field at all, you know. I heard that before, like they're making an effort to make some changes here. So I don't know if they just like tape off those seats and don't sell them. You know, that's how it should be.

'cause those people are gonna be standing up during the game, you know, in the in the like I'd

Kyle Blondin (12:11)
Yeah.

Austin from Ajax (12:11)
be staying like I'd be standing up the whole game to make it work, you know? So it's it's a little ridiculous, but you know, we'll see. I think you judge them more when they start selling tickets, you know, to their actual games. You know, are they still obstructed? Did they make something work? Did they stop selling the seats? But it it looks pretty awful.

Kyle Blondin (12:30)
Yeah, the well, yeah, maybe it's being overblown. I I don't know. I think the stadium visually looks pretty good. I think you know this you know, their older stadium was getting a little outdated, especially in night games it looked poor, the lighting look like crap. So let's see what happens, but I'd be pretty pissed off that you know, I'm sitting in front of a glass, like you said, and there's like reflection. Like, you know, you're looking reflection,

Austin from Ajax (12:53)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (12:55)
like that's it's frustrating. And

Austin from Ajax (12:58)
Imagine you didn't

know. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (12:59)
Yeah, w y yeah, right. And then

you have Bill's Mafia. And if I know you didn't have a chance to get down to the old stadium. I had a chance to go a couple times. It's absolutely a shit show down there. and it's and I mean that in a fun way to a certain extent. There's people obviously overly intoxicated that are just just nuts. And I I'll say that with full compliments, Bill's Mafia, man. It's it's wild. they've built a great reputation going through tables and the tailgating and

It really maybe was the last spot in the NFL where you could probably get to a game with reasonable prices. So I think that is gone. So that's that's you know, you get one win by having a new stadium, but the economical value of heading down now to Buffalo, especially coming from Canada, it's gone. It's gone. So that sucks, man. So I guess we'll be watching the Bills on TV. also with the Patriots, AJ Brown. So we're thinking that the Patriots are a bit of a fraud.

I mean, I guess that's what we're saying, right? They're a bit of a fraud that they're gonna take a step back. They're thinking differently. They're thinking that AJ Brown move is that next layer that's gonna take them where they wanna go. What what are your thoughts? What he what is he gonna bring to this Pat's offense?

Austin from Ajax (14:11)
I think he I mean I think it's definitely a big step up from Stefan Diggs. You know, Stephon Diggs leaving, AJ Brown kinda filling in this role. So I think it's an upgrade on paper. Like on paper, maybe they're a better team. I just I think they're a ten win team. You know, that's still saying a lot in the NFL. It's not easy to get ten wins. I just don't think they have what it takes to get back to the Super Bowl. You know, I think I think they can get into the playoffs as a wildcard team. but we're gonna have to wait and see because I'm not

overly confident about it. You know, I I would also wonder, you know, this story around the coach, Mark Vrabel, you know, does this have any or Mike Rabel, Mike

Kyle Blondin (14:49)
Mike Vrabel. Mike Vrabel? Yeah.

Austin from Ajax (14:52)
Vrabel, sorry. does this have any impact on his coaching at all? You know, I I I don't think it's a high chance, but I think that's it there's there could be a chance that it has a factor, you know, does the story blow up more during the season, you know, I've seen it all over the place already, so we'll we'll have to wait and see.

Kyle Blondin (15:10)
It's

funny as you said Mark Vrabel. I'm thinking, is that what he checked into the hotel name under? You know, Miss Ed Mark Vrabel. I'm hiding

Austin from Ajax (15:14)
Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (15:19)
my identity but not changing my last name. Anyway.

Austin from Ajax (15:21)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (15:22)
so just last note about the Pats, AJ Brown, the story this week was they had a they had a a preseason game against the Patriots, also a joint practice, and it looks like he was chatting with Jalen Hurts and Devontae Smith, and so it looks like the

The bridges bridges have been mended there. So that's that story maybe has been squashed. Now we look, you know, I don't know how much time we want to spend with the bottom two tier teams here. Geno Smith, now going to be quarterbacking the New York Jets. The Jets, absolutely horrific. Aaron Glenn, first year head coach, really doubts about what he was bringing to the table for this organization. It looked like a shit show. you know, Justin Fields.

it just was ugly, man. It was really ugly last year. And you have now Geno Smith. Does this you know, is this team take a step forward or is this going the same spot? Like what what are we doing here? What do you think is gonna happen with the Jets?

Austin from Ajax (16:17)
I don't think the Jets are going anywhere. You know, Gino I I was always a big fan of Gino. you know, when he was quarterbacking for Seattle. But last year I'm I'm listen, I'm an amateur here, but I'm pretty sure he was a quarterbacking for the Raiders, is that correct? Yeah, and I r

Kyle Blondin (16:32)
Yes, he is. Yes, he was, sorry.

Austin from Ajax (16:33)
I remember I remember those games with the Raiders, just like piss poor performances, and I know the offense was young and it wasn't com necessarily maybe they didn't come together, but you know, he moves to the New York Jets who

I mean the guys around him might be okay. you know, you got what's his name? Not in Brees Hall.

Kyle Blondin (16:51)
Brees Hall. Brees Hall in the backfield.

Austin from Ajax (16:53)
yeah, they have a good receiver, that one good receiver. I think he's overrated. but you know what? I'm actually looking at this division here and I'm actually placing the Miami Dolphins above the Jets. I have no confidence in the Jets. with the Miami Dolphins, I actually have faith they can beat the the bad teams. But when the Jets face like a team like the Browns, for example, I don't know who to choose. You know, so I I actually put the Jets as

Potentially one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. so I got no hope for them, honestly. I don't know I don't know what Gino's gonna do, but I'm hoping it's enough to get them four or five wins, but I doubt it.

Kyle Blondin (17:27)
So, you know, Garrett Wilson, the r receiver you're referencing,

Austin from Ajax (17:30)
Garrett Wilson, yeah.

Kyle Blondin (17:32)
I mean, how much time do we gotta give before he shines, right? I haven't seen it. I mean he's okay's okay, I guess, but I mean there's always with the Jets world is potential. And there's never a step forward. So I I'm not I and it's gonna be a theme around the NFL and I look at some of these teams is I'm not fooled, man. I'm not fooled that you know, we're gonna be stuck in the same spot.

With these teams that we there was false hope at the start of the year. The Jets are one of them. Geno Smith to me, like you said, when he went to the Raiders, I thought that was a solid. You know, you had a professional quarterback. That's what I was hearing around the NFL. You had a professional NFL experienced quarterback, and he just sh shit the bed, man. Yeah, he he he looked like a an amateur out there, forcing plays down the field. the the Raiders

Under initially P. Carroll were not feeding Gentry the ball. It just didn't feel like Geno Smith was doing what you thought he was there to do. And I envision the same thing with the Jets. I'm not fooled here, man. I'm not fooled with the Jets that, you know, maybe they'll finish ahead of Miami. I don't disagree with the ranking here in the division, but don't fool me again. Geno Smith is somewhat of a fledgling quarterback that probably will put up the same performance he will. He'll have a couple highlights.

Couple bombs downfield and then throw three picks in a game that will just tank the Jets season. They'll be out of the gate slow. And there you go. on to the Dolphins now. We have the Dolphins. new coach, Jeff Hafley, taking over the Dolphins. Malik Willis, big free agent signing from the Green Bay Packers. And I remember quarterback Malik Willis when he came in with the Tennessee Titans. It didn't

Austin from Ajax (19:17)
Mm.

Kyle Blondin (19:17)
look like we could tell which hand he was throwing the ball in. That's how bad he was.

Okay, lefty, righty, what are you doing? I don't know what the story is on Malik Willis because he's not an NFL quarterback. However, in the brief time he was in last or the time the spot duty for Jordan Love that he had in Green Bay, he actually looked pretty damn good. And that maybe tell you that depending on the organization and the coaching staff you're working under, that absolutely contributes to your development. So interesting pickup by the Dolphins. but another team that's probably not going anywhere. They got rated rid of Jalen Waddle to Denver. So

do you really want to say much about the Dolphins? They're right where they are. They're plus thirty five hundred to win the division. That tells you everything you need to know.

Austin from Ajax (19:59)
Completely agree.

Kyle Blondin (19:59)
Any comments on the dolphins?

Austin from Ajax (20:01)
No, I I had a fantasy related co comment just just going back to the New York Jets. Yeah. I'm

Kyle Blondin (20:04)
Okay. And feel free to keep making fantasy related touch po okay, go.

Austin from Ajax (20:08)
just in my head, because you know, we were talking about Garrett Wilson, the receiver, and you know, we're not high on him. But you know, I feel like no one ever doubts the skill of Brees Hall, their running back. You know, he's more he's kind of a complete guy. But you know, with the way that Gino and Genty kind of perform together, do you think that you know

You Brees Hall runs this offense or do you think it's gonna be more like Gino and the Raiders where the running back isn't used fully? Because I think that's kind of their best their best play on offense. So I'm just curious to what you think. Would would I Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (20:42)
Austin, what

should happen is Brees Hall should be the main guy getting touches like there's no tomorrow. And he should be a guy you're saying, man, fantasy, he's gonna touch the ball, blah, blah, blah. The only risk is injury because he's gonna touch the ball so damn much. He's gonna be catching out of the backfield. He's gonna be holding the rock. He's gonna be on the one yard line, two yard line. I just think the Jets will fuck it up. I think that

Austin from Ajax (21:04)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (21:04)
the problem with it seemed like with the Raiders was you gave Geno Smith two free he wasn't a part of the plan that should have been put in place. And I

I don't have any confidence that what you just stated that Brees Hall should be carrying the rock as the main focal point of the offense is gonna be what happens here in the Jets season. So I'll leave it up to you. But Brees Hall is probably the only highlight to me in this offense, to be honest. But I just don't think he'll get the opportunities as he should based on you know, the decision making I think will happen on the Jets offensive sideline.

Austin from Ajax (21:35)
See, I I completely agree with you, but I what I love is that, you know, I think two weeks into the season we'll completely know what the situation is here with Brees Hall. You know, is he getting

Kyle Blondin (21:44)
Yeah, I agree.

Austin from Ajax (21:45)
twenty touches a game, you know? Is he getting f three

Kyle Blondin (21:47)
That's right.

Austin from Ajax (21:48)
three to five catches on top of that? You know, who knows?

Kyle Blondin (21:51)
Now I want to make sure that we keep into account that this is a unique year in the NFL as we go on to the other divisions and these two bottom feeders are probably gonna be, you know, a part of this conversation. But there is a projected that there's potentially six franchise quarterbacks that may enter the two two thousand twenty seven NFL draft. So there is a lot of you know, you gotta think that if teams will hit the eject button early, if things are going south, to put themselves in a situation to pick up

That

franchise quarterback. So, you know, the Jets and Dolphins fell into that category, like Arch Manning, you know, through the Manning family, Texas quarterback, Dante Moore out of Oregon, who declined. He was supposed to be in this year's draft, declined probably because the Jets held the second overall pick. And a few other guys, four more quarterbacks that we might see a quarterback heavy draft. And you know, if the NFL, you don't have a quarterback, you're dead, right? And if you could draft the right quarterback.

You're setting yourself up to 10 to 12 years of playoff runs and potentially getting a Super Bowl. So very important to keep that in mind when we're talking about futures on some of these teams that may decide to pack it in much early. AFC North, right? Some changes here. A lot of coaching changes actually. the Ravens top it off at even money to win this division. Bengals plus 165. Then we drop off a bit. Steelers plus 500 and the Browns plus 1800. Ravens, new coach, Jesse Minter comes in.

Same offense, pretty much. Lamar Jackson carrying the load as you would expect. Derrick Henry, is this the year he falls, you know, falls off? He didn't have the monster year that he did two years ago when he first joined the Ravens. So does this ranking Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns sit well with you, or is there value to pick up different division winner other than the Ravens?

Austin from Ajax (23:45)
I actually prefer the Cincinnati Bengals Bengals this year over the Baltimore Ravens. I just I

Kyle Blondin (23:50)
Oof.

Austin from Ajax (23:50)
have a good feeling about them this year. You know, they're finally it seems like they're coming in healthy. you know, the Ravens I Ravens are a great team, don't get me wrong. But I feel like I don't know, it seems more like Joe Burrow is the type of guy that maybe gets it done over Lamar, but I'm not sure. You know, we'll have to see. but

Yeah, I also I just looking at the bottom two teams here, I don't have it out in front of me, but I think it's interesting to take a look at Pittsburgh Steelers just making the playoffs in general just because they have so many times in the last ten years and the numbers don't reflect that. but Cincinnati all the way here for division winner. You disagree?

Kyle Blondin (24:32)
So let's it's funny.

it's funny how we look at the Bangles, right? So I'll tell you right now, I think the Bengals fall into that category. I've already seen this show before, the potential. They made their Super Bowl run, right? They made their Super Bowl run. They were on the verge of taking that next step. And then whether it be injury, whether it be underperformance, whether it be their D just can't stop anything, can't stop a cold. I am not sold. I have to see to believe that the Bengals

Are taking life seriously. Taylor, head coach, has been there for a while. I don't know if we're gonna see a s similar. I think they're gonna be in playoff contention, but is it gonna be that, wow, we started off 0-3 and then we're battling our way back once again, right? and is there gonna be, my God, Jamar Chase and Higgins are complaining and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. so I I I'm not convinced. I still think that the Ravens will.

win this division. I think you're in a situation with Baltimore where you can make the call to say, John Harbaugh, thank you for the legendary service you provided. We got to go in a different direction because the Lamar Jacksons of the world basically run this offense and you're not gonna, you know, have such a radical shift in what he's gonna perform week in and week out. So I mean I I want to see it to believe it for the Bengals. So I think we're right here. The Ravens should be leading the pack. we'll

Derrick Henry have a season? I don't know. it's he's got a lot of miles on him, so we'll see if he can somehow bring his performance to the level it needs to be. And the only question is Lamar Jackson, can he stay healthy? He still takes a lot of hits, right? And he's he makes this machine go. So if he's healthy, then I feel the Ravens can do it. The Steelers, Mike McCarthy now in as head coach. you know, the as far as Mike Tomlin saying, I'm I'm done. I'm gonna go to the

TV booth, I don't know what we have here right in the in in Pittsburgh with Tom and Gone and McCarthy back with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers looked like a shadow of himself. He looked like a very old man, you know, in in the last stages of his career last season. There was talk that he was not a hundred percent, but at his age, when are you gonna be a hundred percent? They brought in Michael Pittman Jr. out of w from the Colts. So they beefed up the receiving core, but can he gain enough space in the pocket?

For the things to open up for him and DK to put points on the board. The Steelers D should be solid, but can they stay healthy? So I don't know. Will they make a playoff run? Hard to say. So what what are your thoughts on the Steelers?

Austin from Ajax (27:09)
my thoughts on the Steelers. you know, I've always been a big Michael Pittman fan. I think that's a fantastic ad for them. you know, I think I do think though Rogers is done. You know, I don't know if he's got enough gas in the tank to go on a Super Bowl run here. you know, the Steelers always defy the odds. but I'm not too high on them this year. You know, here's the thing, too. And I did say, you know, there might be good value at them making the playoffs. I haven't seen the odds.

But with Tomlin not being there, you know, how much of their record over the last ten or the last decade is because of him as well. You know, I always considered him a good coach at the very least. so with him being gone, Rogers on his, you know, fortieth year season where he's already shown he's fallen off, you know, it'll be interesting to see. I did I did have a random question for you. just just because we're on the division.

a hundred percent healthy this year. Who are you taking? Joe Burrow or Lamar?

Kyle Blondin (28:11)
100% healthy? It's a good question, right? Because Joe Burrow, you you have to keep the injury factor. He I think here's here's how I'm gonna answer this. If you want stats, I think Joe Burrow's gonna put up ridiculous stats. If he's healthy and he's got the receiving core and offense, lights out fantasy football, watch out. But if you want wins and you want, you know, to make a credible playoff run, Lamar Jackson. So that's that's my

Thought. I mean, I'm just looking at the history and or the consistent performance that we've seen over the last few years. So that's my answer. I'm sticking to it.

Austin from Ajax (28:47)
Yeah. See I I agree with the consistent performance, but I do think, you know, Joe Burrow is is the one in the playoffs who's made it further. He's made it to the Super Bowl before. Lamar's never done that.

Kyle Blondin (28:57)
he's once once. Like once. It's not like it's

Austin from Ajax (29:00)
Yeah. Yeah, and then but

then every every other year, like I know it's not an excuse, but I mean every other year, like last three years, Joe Burrow has missed like half the season, right? So it's just like I just want to see this guy play a full season and then I wanna

Kyle Blondin (29:15)
What if he can? Do you believe he can?

Austin from Ajax (29:18)
I I believe I don't know, I don't know, but it's a big if. But I think he if he plays if he plays every game he's top three in my eyes.

Kyle Blondin (29:27)
But they you know, even their D, do you believe in it? Because I they would score forty five points, but they would give up fifty. So, I mean, that's another hindrance.

Austin from Ajax (29:34)
Yeah, see that and that goes why he's probably putting up bigger stats as well, right? That Baltimore has that lockdown

Kyle Blondin (29:38)
Yeah.

Austin from Ajax (29:39)
D, they're probably running the rock a lot more for sure.

Kyle Blondin (29:42)
Yes. And then we go down to the Cleveland Browns. So they are probably where they need to be at the bottom of the division plus eighteen hundred. Now the story at a Cleveland is the quarterback battle. Deshaun Watson recently getting booed. and then chirping back at the fans about being this being disrespectful. And Shadur Sanders coming off a pretty solid rookie performance when he got his opportunity in Cleveland and

It all signs point that most likely Deshaun Watson is gonna be Todd Monk Todd Munkins quarterback, but I don't know if that's the end of the story. So w what what do you feel is going on in Cleveland in the quarterback battle?

Austin from Ajax (30:26)
it just looks like a crap show. You know, I don't I I

Kyle Blondin (30:30)
We can swear here, you don't need to create a crap show.

Austin from Ajax (30:32)
Alright, all right, sorry. i it's a shit show in Cleveland. you know, their best player by a mile is gone. I I got no faith. Deshaun Watson hasn't looked good in how many years, you know? since he's been on the Texans, honestly, I would say. just nothing to say about the Browns. I don't I don't want to watch his team.

Kyle Blondin (30:53)
I think what you're looking at here is a a franchise that can't get out of their own way. I think you're looking at they should be thinking, all right, the Deshaun Watson experiment is done. It's over. Okay. My bet is to try to look at Shadur Sanders. Is he the guy or not? With a full season as QB1. Give him the full reps, the full vetting process to see if he is your NFL quarterback going forward.

I just talked about six potential first round franchise quarterbacks that you cannot miss out on. You cannot miss. Okay. So you have to ensure that in this season, coming out of the season, you 100% know who your starting franchise quarterback's gonna be for the next foreseeable future. So that's simply the way it do you lose Austin from Ajax, you dropped off. I can hear you now.

you're gone. Austin's gone. Austin he's back.

Austin from Ajax (31:58)
Okay. I've been looking at the stats on my phone. I apologize. Usually I'm moving the mouse a lot. you've never heard AFK? Away from keyboard?

Kyle Blondin (32:02)
They went what? AFK? What is AFK? you've never heard AFK. No, what is AFK?

Austin from Ajax (32:07)
Away from keyboard. You never heard that? Really? It's a very

it's like LOL, right? It's like Yeah,

Kyle Blondin (32:10)
Look, I wear reading glasses, that's how old I am. AF I went AFK.

Austin from Ajax (32:15)
I went AFK, I went away from keyboard. So basically, okay, I wasn't moving my mouse around, so it just you know, it went on sleep mode basically. That's what I'm trying to say.

Kyle Blondin (32:22)
Okay.

If you say so. All right, we're gonna pick up the pace here because we're like already a half hour in. We've only gotten through two divisions. Right.

Austin from Ajax (32:28)
Lot to talk about here.

Kyle Blondin (32:29)
So AFC South, interesting division. this one is I think should drive some conversation. Texans, surprisingly to me, are plus one twenty to win this division. The Jags are plus two ten. the Colts plus three fifty. And the Titans plus nine hundred. Now, the Texans, I'm not buying them at all, man. You got what we seen last year.

What do you i are the Texans rightfully the

Austin from Ajax (32:54)
So

Kyle Blondin (32:54)
the betting favorite here?

Austin from Ajax (32:55)
so listen, I come into this podcast sometimes without a lot of research, but it kinda the the the

Kyle Blondin (33:01)
That's great dimension on the podcast.

Austin from Ajax (33:03)
No no no but I'm I'm bringing out a positive here. But like my genuine reaction to see the Jacksonville Jag Jaguars at three to one and being like, Holy shit, how is this possible? Yet last year we were talking or sorry, yesterday, me and you were talking about how you know, they won like what, fourteen games last year or something. Thirteen or fourteen games. It's like

Why wh why are the Texans in first here? You know, and why are the ja why are the Jags three to one? I th to me this is a clear you take the Jaguars. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (33:31)
Well the Jags are plus two ten. So like the Colts are three to one and

the Jags are two to one.

Austin from Ajax (33:38)
For for me, if you put a hundred dollars in the jags, you're getting two ten profit here.

Kyle Blondin (33:41)
That's right.

Austin from Ajax (33:42)
Yeah, so wouldn't that not be three to one?

Kyle Blondin (33:44)
You'd be doubling your money, wouldn't you?

Austin from Ajax (33:46)
Two to one is doubling your money. Three to one is tripling your money.

Kyle Blondin (33:49)
Right. You're not tripling money because you have your hundred dollars back.

Austin from Ajax (33:53)
No, you're getting two hundred dollars back on the Jaguars.

Kyle Blondin (33:55)
You're getting two hundred dollars profit, so you're doubling your bet. That's doubling your money.

Austin from Ajax (33:59)
see

you're no you're tripling your money though.

Kyle Blondin (34:02)
Th how you trip if you put if

if you take a hundred dollars out your pocket, you pass it to the betting window, and then when the Jags win the division, you come back and collect three hundred dollars, you've only

Austin from Ajax (34:13)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (34:13)
profited two hundred dollars.

Austin from Ajax (34:15)
Yeah, you profited, but your money is now triple.

Kyle Blondin (34:16)
Two to one. Two

to one. It's not triple. I can't be you've already if you if you've

Austin from Ajax (34:20)
But if you turn one

dollar into three dollars, you tripled your money.

Kyle Blondin (34:23)
But you only getting

but you're only getting two dollars extra. You've doubled your money. Okay. All right.

Austin from Ajax (34:29)
No, i that see that's not how I say it.

Interesting debate here. I don't know. yeah. I did so am I. yeah, there

Kyle Blondin (34:35)
I will figure out maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. I the hell do I know? I'm in I'm sitting in a basement. I don't like what do you want? Okay. So

Austin from Ajax (34:42)
there's just so much to talk about here. Even the the tanking that you're talking about. I would love to talk about that 'cause the NBA has made big changes, but I know we gotta keep going here.

Kyle Blondin (34:52)
Okay, so

so y you you like the Jags to win this division? You think there's value there?

Austin from Ajax (34:57)
I think it it's the clear pick. I think if I was making these odds, they're a hundred percent at the top and it's not even a debate. What did they lose? Like what am I not seeing here that they lost? There's gotta be

Kyle Blondin (35:04)
What about seat.

Austin from Ajax (35:08)
information that I'm not filled in with looking at these numbers, you know what I mean?

Kyle Blondin (35:12)
Right. I think the Jacksonville Jaguars are in the upswing. I I think I I think the Texans are obviously being ranked based on their lights out defense. But with the fact that CJ Stroud was so bad against the Patriots in the playoffs last year, if I'm game planning the the Houston Texans, I'm absolutely taking to account that CJ Stroud's not gonna move the ball. I'm gonna put him in, you know, long field situations.

Maybe I'm going to choose to punt instead of going for it on, you know, fourth and short because I'm playing the CJ Stroud card where he's going to shit the bed somewhere deep in his zone and I'm going to get the ball back a few minutes later in a better offensive position. I think the CJ Stroud card is going to limit the effectiveness of that defense. I think that teams are going to pressure, settle for field goals, not take chances, and make the Houston Texans play catch up.

So CJ Stroud card's gonna be a big deal. I don't see him improving. I thought he would have bounced back last year. Remember his rookie year, he took this team into the second round of the playoffs. He had a a great season, but it's really declined from here. so we can't forget what we've seen. While the Jacksonville Jaguars under Coach Cohen, I really think put the offense in a good position where Trevor Lawrence was you know, rebounding and his career back on path. And but but I think the real value here is the Colts.

Right. So the Colts potentially plus three fifty could bring value here. They they why can't they? Right? They got they got the horses, Taylor in the backfield, good coach, defense. I think there's value there. and the Titans, well, we'll see what Cam Ward does kind of in his second year as the previous first overall pick. But what I will throw out there is you better out there, after watching the Colts, remember the Colts jumped out like ridiculous.

And last year and people were talking Super Bowl, you know, your best record in the NFL. What happened to them? It fell off the planet.

Austin from Ajax (37:15)
Hm. No Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (37:18)
Right? So I'm almost thinking that you might find value here on waiting, you know, five, six weeks, looking at the futures on this division, and then reassessing is, you know, the Jacksonville in the hunt, and they were, you know, put now plus three fifty or plus four hundred.

So there might be value of waiting to choose a division winner. I'm going to take the Colts in this one. You're taking the Jags. But there might be value of waiting five, six weeks to get a better number for a division that, you know, we seen last year, a team just got well ahead, but fell back to the pack and fell off the table. So that's my thoughts

Austin from Ajax (37:55)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (37:56)
on that.

Austin from Ajax (37:57)
Just a small thing to add about the Houston Texans, and I really hope I'm not wrong here, you know, but they added David Montgomery, correct?

Kyle Blondin (38:04)
Yep, they did.

Austin from Ajax (38:06)
The fact listen, David Montgomery to me is a legitimate running back, a legitimate quality running back, and I think I think he can help CJ Stroud take off some pressure. You know, it's not justifying the numbers that I see, but I just think it's a big thing to mention that the Houston Texans have a legitimate

running back who can dominate, I would say. Getting older, getting older for sure, but

Kyle Blondin (38:27)
it's see yeah.

Austin from Ajax (38:29)
I mean this guy just pummeled through people with Detroit and I'll say he was one of the most entertaining running backs to watch. So we will we'll see what happens there.

Kyle Blondin (38:38)
Interesting. And then just a last note for this division is for the Colts. Keenan Allen just signed with the Colts. So former Chargers receiver might be an interesting he's always he's a go-to guy, he's not as fast or whatever, but he's definitely a professional receiver that you can't hurt having him in your on your offense. AFC West. This is an interesting division. There's a lot new of new powerhouses here, a lot of interesting teams.

Where

the Chiefs once ruled the NFL. The Chiefs had a horrible season last year. Things did not go their way. And it ended with Patrick McHombs having a knee injury that is questionable if he'll be ready. He seems to be thinking he'll be ready for week one. Will he be 110% in 2026 with the with the with the medical science? Like there's no question that he could.

it's it's insane how well these doctors are performing these surgeries. But the Chiefs do still lead the division as favorites plus one seventy-five. The Chargers move up to number two plus one ninety. The Broncos with Bo Nicks coming off that broken leg plus two ten and the Raiders looking to be on the rise in the next couple seasons after drafting Mendoza from Indiana, but having Kirk Cousins, they rounded up a plus fifteen hundred to win this division.

Is it ranked properly? Do you do you like w plus one seventy five for the Chiefs, or is there value somewhere else?

Austin from Ajax (40:09)
I do I actually do like the Chiefs here. you know, y over the blast five years you wouldn't ever seen any numbers close to this for the Chiefs. you know, the Chiefs do seem like they're on a bit a bit of a downturn. but I mean I don't want to bet against the Chiefs. I look at last year more as an outlier than anything. you know, do you need Mahomes a hundred percent healthy or in is ninety percent enough to be better than everybody else? added Kenneth Walker.

I think I'm rolling with the Chiefs here, but I'm not actually confident about it. It doesn't feel like a sexy bet to me. am surprised to see the the Chargers above the Broncos, but man, this is just a solid division where anybody other than the Raiders obviously could come out on top, even though I think the Raiders will improve this year compared to last. but I think you gotta take the Chiefs. It's pretty much like i the n the odds are so close it's almost a pick'em between these three teams. Nearly. but I like to hear who your thoughts.

Kyle Blondin (41:04)
What's your final answer?

Austin from Ajax (41:06)
Chiefs, Chiefs, hundred percent.

Kyle Blondin (41:06)
Cheese okay.

Austin from Ajax (41:07)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (41:08)
Okay, so I think the value to me is the Broncos. I I think the Broncos is Sean Payton. I think he obviously is a l is a future Hall of Fame coach, knows how to run his program. Bo Nicks was a is was a s you know, has been very good the last couple years. But I I think that's part because Sean Payton is a quarterback offensive kind of guy that knew how to develop him. I think coming off the injury, I think

Sean Payton has a good assessment of what Bo Knicks can or cannot do if he's hindered at all by the injury. this this team, they pick up Jalen Waddell, which I think is an impact player. I think the Broncos, to me, I don't think they're gonna take the foot off the gas. I think they're on the upswing here and probably should have been playing in the Super Bowl, if not with the injury to Bo Knicks. So I think the Raiders, sorry, the Broncos are best valued here. I think the Chiefs will still make the playoffs. it's interesting what they do with Kenneth Walker.

Walker was a big deal with the Seattle Seahawks to get them where they needed to go and win the Super Bowl. That's why he was a Super Bowl MVP. the Chargers saw it. I think interesting that Mike McDaniels, former head coach of the Miami Dolphins, will be running the offense for Justin Herbert. Herbert year after year just takes a beating every year. Like he, you know, he'll see him more bandages wrap up his fingers as the years go on.

So can he take that next step? Maybe. they had a key injury on the offensive line. So that injuries keep becoming a problem for this Charger team. so you mean these teams will be in the playoff hunt, but I think the Broncos will win the division. And as far as the Raiders go, I think you'll see you know four to five weeks of Kirk Cousins, and then Mendoza will get his shot and probably finish pretty solid. remember, they're a team that is not going to be looking at those franchise quarterbacks.

A next year they're going to be looking at developing Mendoza, hopefully not quicker than they need to. If they don't need to rush him in there, if they feel he's not ready, there's no need to be patient. but if he's ready, you got to put him in and sit cousins on the bench and or maybe use cousins down the road as a future trade bait because you know and I know there's gonna be injuries at the end of the year where teams are gonna need a veteran quarterback just to continue their playoff run. So look for the Broncos to win this division.

any other notes in the AFC West? Are we good to move on?

Austin from Ajax (43:34)
I don't I don't think I have too much to say. You know, I know we're taking a lot of time here so I won't get into any small things.

Kyle Blondin (43:42)
Okay. All right. Now we go on to the NFC. The NFC East, we have the Eagles are leading the pack with plus 130. The Cowboys plus one 175. The Giants at plus 550. And the Commanders at plus 600. just maybe I'll kick it off here. The Eagles have lost AJ Brown. I think we'll we will see a difference that they don't have that explosive. I know they got Devontae Smith and they had a

you

know, Lemon or one of their pa picks out of USC is kind of hobbling right now. And to me, the Eagles have, you know, at times really had periods where they sputtered on offense and just can't get it going. And unless Saquon Bar Barkley returns to form, which I hope he does because I think the NFL's better when a Saquon Barkley as exciting as he is, comes back to form. But he really had a down year last year.

And I don't see this Eagles offense being as explosive without AJ Brown. so I like the Cowboys maybe as a value pick here. What's your initial thoughts on this division?

Austin from Ajax (44:49)
so you actually just did cut out there just for a couple seconds,

Kyle Blondin (44:51)
Done.

Austin from Ajax (44:52)
but I'm pretty sure you asked me what I think of this division here. And I I agree with what you said or what I think I heard you say, where you actually like the cowboys here. For some reason I also have that feeling. no, wait, you didn't say that? Okay, I j

Kyle Blondin (45:02)
I didn't say that. I didn't say that. I'm just kidding. I did say that. I did say it. I did. I did say that.

Austin from Ajax (45:07)
legitimately I did it wasn't sure. I thought I heard cowboys. Okay. So I actually

Kyle Blondin (45:09)
So I did say that, yes. You did, you're right. I was right.

Austin from Ajax (45:12)
I actually will ride that boat with you and I will say

Dallas Cowboys are the play here. That being said, you know, AJ Brown, you know, early in the season last year, I'm pretty sure AJ Blow was throwing a hit a shit fit because you know, he wasn't getting the throws. And they were able to stay relevant without without AJ Brown being a a key focal point in the offense. So I I I'm not surprised if they're a competent team here. I just think the Cowboys could beat him by like a win or two in the season to squeak out the division. And I think the value's a little better.

Where, you know, in my head it could go either way, so obviously take the the better odds with the Cowboys here.

Kyle Blondin (45:51)
Does Von Miller add value you think to the Cowboys in their pass rush?

Austin from Ajax (45:55)
I don't think it really it's standout value. It's not like Miles Garrett going to the Rams, you know, it's not anywhere close to that. But I think it adds slight value.

Kyle Blondin (46:06)
Okay.

Austin from Ajax (46:06)
and it's good to have, you know, a Super Bowl MVP, somebody who's been there before, somebody who, you know, has all that experience. So I think it adds to the team, but nothing crazy.

Kyle Blondin (46:19)
Yeah, he's won two Super Bowls, right, with the Broncos and the Rams. he may be getting along in the tooth. I mean, we we people probably forget he was with the Bills and was with the commanders and really injury plagued and not really a difference maker. But the way that the Cowboys obtain by signing as a free agent, but he got to lose. Maybe there's value here. Will he stay healthy? If he gets one or two sacks and he puts pressure on a key game, then you gotta win there. But you know, it's a bonus and see what happens with Vaughn Miller.

And the rest of the division you have the Giants are looking Jackson Dart, second year quarterback. Funny thing is, man, there should be a bet on how many times Jackson Dart will be told to go to the blue tent with the number of hits he takes. I don't know if this kid gets it, man. I don't know if he understands that an NFL quarterback has to really take into account the pounding that they take and throw the goddamn ball away, run out of bounds, live to fight another day.

He's a guy that might get in his own way. So what what what's your thoughts on the Giants? I mean, OBJ is back as well. Malik Neighbors trying to get healed. I don't know if he'll be ready for week one. Scatabo back after injuring to end his season last year. new coach John Harbaugh, which is a positive. so a lot to think about when the Giants do you see them on the upswing or the downswing here?

Austin from Ajax (47:40)
I think they're on the upswing. that being said, you know, what you said about Jackson Dart, I just to me, I think there's some guys where if they're gonna produce, if they're gonna get the wins, they do have to put their body on the line week in and week out. You know, some guys are talented enough where they don't they they have a choice, you know, they can hold back a little bit to save their body. But I think him and Scatabow, man, these guys are battering Rams. Like they're going in head first and crap like that, right? But it's like, you know

It almost seems like their identity to me. You know, and it it makes it more fun to watch, but you know, it's only a matter of time before they get injured, right? I mean they both went out. Yeah, they both went

Kyle Blondin (48:19)
Might be their identity, but that might that

Austin from Ajax (48:21)
out for the season last year, right? Based on what they were doing. So

Kyle Blondin (48:24)
Well, I mean it could be their identity, but it's dumb. It's it's stupid. Like, I mean, they even had to tell Scadaboo no more backflips. So he was doing backflips and

Austin from Ajax (48:33)
That's crazy.

Kyle Blondin (48:34)
scoring touchdowns. Like, what are doing? So I think he did a

Austin from Ajax (48:36)
That's crazy.

Kyle Blondin (48:37)
backflip in the offseason, like, hey, yeah, hey, hey, no more, man. Your your whole your whole function is your legs. And you're gonna screw around by doing backflips. You gotta use your goddamn brain, man. Big picture, you have a short window. Jackson Dart is has an opportunity here. The Giants have nothing else.

However, you don't tell me that Jackson Dart and the Giants, sorry, the Giants are not also looking at those six quarterbacks that if I have an injury play quarterback, I'm just gonna bail. I'm bailing here. Sorry, I'm gonna move on to that next opportunity for a quick fix young quarterback. So I don't know who's in his ear, but there's a difference between, you know, keeping a play alive at third and twenty in your own 20-yard line and putting your head down versus

You know, fourth quarter, two-minute drill, and you're you know, you put your head down because there's a win in front of you. So he's got to pick his spots or he'll be done quick and they'll move on, and he'll be a footnote in the history of the NFL because that's exactly how the NFL works. Commanders, Jaden Daniels, you know, two years ago leads his team to a conference championship, and then you have a bad season last year where he's in and out of the lineup due to injury.

They're bringing in digs, loose Debo Samuels gone. I don't know what this commander's team is. I do believe the plus six hundred is the right place to do it. Like where's Jaden Daniels in his career? Where what do you think is gonna happen?

Austin from Ajax (50:04)
you know, Jaden Daniels is a very talented quarterback. I don't know. I don't have much hope though for the Washington Commanders. I feel like, you know, they could be a five or six win team here.

I don't know. I don't I don't think they're as bad as the Jets or the Browns. You know, I think they got competency, but I just don't think and I could also see them finishing above the Giants, even though I don't think it's necessarily likely. But you know, not too much to say. Jaden Daniels fan.

I don't know. They could strive for average. You know what I'm saying? They could strive to be an average team in the NFL. If they got up to eight wins, I think that's their best case scenario.

Kyle Blondin (50:47)
I you know, it's funny, I think you know, like in baseball, you know, when a player comes up to the majors, they get hot and then, you know, people catch on that this guy can't hit a breaking ball, he's susceptible to the high fastball, he doesn't swing on the first pitch, so let's throw strikes so he's behind the count. I I think Jaden F Daniels falls into this category of teams after that rookie year and that run, have kind of caught on.

that he leaves the pocket and you know I think they've got him figured out where he'll still be effective but I don't think as effective as we've seen in that rookie year. And honestly, I feel like he's very fragile. it's no fault of his own, but he's not a big guy. And he's playing with like monsters out there. So I I foresee him as being a guy that's gonna take too many hits. He's gonna have concussions. Excuse me

Shoulder issue re I just see it. I I just see where he's gonna be on the IR more times than you can have for a franchise quarterback to lead you anywhere significant. So I hope I'm wrong, because when he's on, he's exciting. But I just think he's a fragile kind of quarterback, just a small man in a big man's world. That's what

Austin from Ajax (52:03)
Mm.

Kyle Blondin (52:03)
I think.

Austin from Ajax (52:04)
Yeah. I I completely agree, but we've all we've all seen Jaden Daniels step up in prime time. You know, he he's been quite the entertainer over the last couple of years and two two years ago, yeah, they but

Kyle Blondin (52:12)
But when? Two years ago. I mean it's not it's not been regular.

Austin from Ajax (52:16)
they made they made playoffs, did they not that year or

Kyle Blondin (52:19)
They th but they haven't done it since. Like that's what I'm saying. This this

Austin from Ajax (52:21)
Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Blondin (52:22)
hasn't been since.

Austin from Ajax (52:23)
I g I guess in my head, at even at that point they kind of overexceeded expectations, but I do agree.

Kyle Blondin (52:31)
Okay, and then we move on to maybe one of the more interesting divisions that may have four solid teams, and that's the NFC North. Now the Lions lead the pack at plus 155, the Packers plus 250, Bears 340, and the Vikings at plus 430. the Lions probably the most stable team that's coming back, but they do have Jameer Gibbs as the lone wolf here.

used to be the one-two punch Sonic and what is it? Sonic and Knuckles. They called Montgomery

Austin from Ajax (53:01)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (53:02)
and Gibbs, but it's just Gibbs now. He's got the contract and will be the main guy, not surprisingly. You look at the Packers, you know, Parsons, big acquisition last year. He'll probably start a little few games into the season based on his injury had last year that ended his season. the Bears, Caleb Caleb Williams almost pulled off the miracle against the Rams at home in the playoffs.

And then the Vikings with Kyler Murray starting quarterback

Austin from Ajax (53:28)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (53:29)
for them and just an interesting division. do you disagree with the Lions being the favorite and should be taking this division?

Austin from Ajax (53:39)
Honestly, now that I look at it, I feel like the Green Bay Packers are more of a sure thing than the Lions. Even though I want the Lions to be better, it doesn't matter when it comes to the bets that I'm placing. I think the Packers here at 3.5 to 1 or 2.5 to 1, as you would say, or or whatever whatever it

Kyle Blondin (53:57)
Right.

Austin from Ajax (53:57)
actually is, we'll figure it out after the podcast. But I think Green Bay Packers is the better value. You gotta take them here for the division pick. But this is the first division where I look at every team.

And I would not be surprised if any of these teams won the division. Even even Minnesota with Kyler Murray. Who's to say they can't be a twelve win team or or a thirteen win team? Because you know, with Sam Darnold, and yeah, he won the Super Bowl last year, Sam Darnold. Phileo Fish, hey, I might even say

Kyle Blondin (54:25)
Yeah.

Austin from Ajax (54:25)
double Big Mac at this point. I'm just gonna say it, but

Kyle Blondin (54:28)
Okay.

Austin from Ajax (54:29)
but you know, with Kyler Murray, everyone everyone knows Kyler Murray has the talent. They got the number one receiver in the NFL and Justin Jefferson.

they could easily even be the number one team. I'm not saying it's the most likely scenario here, but I'm rolling with the Packers.

Kyle Blondin (54:44)
Rolling with the Packers.

Austin from Ajax (54:45)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (54:46)
Rolling with the Packers. Okay, so that man, this division's out for grabs. Like you said, the Vikings could even make a run here, right? The Vikings can make a run. I would not be surprised. The Bears could build off top. They take a step back, step forward. Lions with Gibbs and that offense. I mean, you know, there's there's something to be said when you have you know Goff back there, Ahmad St. Brown and Williams and Laporta's a little banged up, so I don't know if he'll be ready for week one.

But this offense is so familiar with themselves. they could keep chugging along at a high rate. The Packers had a few losses in their receiving core, but should be pretty solid. Jacobs looks like he's a bit bit you know banged up a little bit. The Bears should be solid. The Vikings, Kyler Murray. I mean, they had to do something. JJ McCarthy was not showing what they needed him. And when you do have a JJ McCarthy,

Sorry, you have a Justin Jefferson. You have to mix them in as a focal part of your offense. And part of that is getting the damn ball. And if you can't have a quarterback to at least give him the ball and make him do things, you're just, you're just shooting yourself in the foot here. If if you can't get Justin Jefferson the ball, he's useless. So it'd be interesting how this offense goes with Kyler Murray. He's not your traditional drop back quarterback that will, you know, be like an Aaron Don like a Sam Darnold where he's throwing three steps, seven step drop.

it's gonna be a little bit more of a scramble, which be interesting to how it fits into this offense. But I really think the Lions are gonna take this division, to be honest. I like the makeup of their team, Dan Campbell. I think they rebound and you know, maybe have one of the best records in the NFC, to be honest. And they have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That's my story. I'm sticking to it. And then we go on to the your hope's case, yes. Cause

Austin from Ajax (56:28)
I hope that's the case. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (56:31)
you know, would you say that Detroit's probably what team is the most likable team? Is Detroit one of them?

Like a likable team.

Austin from Ajax (56:39)
definitely right now, over the last couple of years, a hundred percent.

Kyle Blondin (56:42)
Like I'm not a Lions fan, but I like they're so likable that I wouldn't mind seeing them make a Super Bowl run.

Austin from Ajax (56:48)
Yeah, they got grit, they they have offense. don't I feel like everyone was flabbergasted last year with them missing the playoffs. That was probably the biggest shock in the NFL, maybe.

Kyle Blondin (56:58)
Yeah.

Austin from Ajax (56:59)
but but like a bowl, yeah, a hundred percent.

Kyle Blondin (57:03)
AFC

South, again, I think we're looking at a division that is still the weak link of the NFL. And that is led by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at plus 200, the New Orleans Saints at plus 260, the Falcons at plus 290, and the Carolina Panthers plus 330. Wow, the Carolina Panthers have no respect. Absolutely no respect. I mean, this was a playoff team. So it's interesting that they are at the bottom of the pile here. So

is this order correct? Are the Bucks gonna take the division? Any surprises?

Austin from Ajax (57:35)
so for the last three years straight, you know, we've t we've taken the Bucks winning the division. I think two or three of those years we predicted correctly. and you know, Baker Mayfield, you know, he feels disrespected. He didn't get that contract that he wanted and that contract that he deserved. And, you know, he's fighting for money here. Baker Mayfield is fighting to get paid week in and week out here. And I think honestly that's the biggest storyline. I don't want to bet against that.

you know, Carolina Panthers, you know, we we know they were the biggest frauds in the NFL last year. You know, they they were out there beating the good teams and losing against the shit teams. You know, I think there was a lot of luck there. I feel like Tampa Bay is the clear clear favorite here. Maybe, you know, Atlanta Falcons would be the next team that I'm looking at. I don't want to look at the Saints or the Panthers. but give me give me Baker Mayfield, even without Mike Evans.

Kyle Blondin (58:31)
Yeah. like you said, Baker is looking at his contract as a story. You know, he wants I think the fifty million over a lengthy period of time. They wants the Bucks to commit long term. I think they were willing to pay fifty million, but not for the length of time that he wants. Imagine your life you could say, you know what? I'm gonna say no to the fifty million, right? You know, I'm gonna turn that one down, guys. I'm gonna turn that extension down.

And take my chances of getting my head taken off as a quarterback in the NFL and losing the opportunity to make that much coin. So I hope that doesn't become a deterrent for this Bucks team and Baker gets in his head that, you know, he's pissed off and it affects his play. I hope it doesn't. I you know, they the Bucs have not been I mean they've they've been maybe the best team in the division, but they haven't really you know, destroyed

this

division and like set themselves apart in a in a way. But I do believe they take it. So I think we both agree on the buck. It's plus two hundred. The Saints are going into, you know, Tyler Shook is their guy, a quarterback. solid. Will he will he come back and improve? I mean if slight improvement could mean that they are challenging for the division for sure. so interesting to see here. Falcons sh

Stavnosky in former Cleveland coach now over helm over overseeing the Falcons. Good offensive mind, but it it's Bijan Robinson is a generational talent. Would you agree with that?

Austin from Ajax (1:00:11)
yeah, j a

lot of people consider him the number one running back in the NFL. I still have Gibbs over him personally, but

Kyle Blondin (1:00:14)
Right. Right.

Austin from Ajax (1:00:17)
he might be one of the mo or he might be the most complete running back.

Kyle Blondin (1:00:21)
Right, so there's a small window where you have an exceptional talent like that. And they're really in a pro a pickle right now because Tua has looked horrible in the preseason. we talked about what does preseason mean? Well, I mean, if you look at Tua, maybe that is an indication that you're not gonna you're this guy's like on the decline even worse than we thought. And that could be a hindrance. And Michael Penix Jr. that you know, their first round pick of a couple years back is just been cleared.

to practice and there's a reason why they went after two and other bodies because they didn't trust him and he wasn't explosive enough. So what do they have in Atlanta? So that's g that's gonna be a mystery. And they lost a couple of their pass rushers to injury and suspension. So it might be tough sailing. The only thing saving the Atlanta Falcons might be the division they're in. so not holding out hope. the f the Panthers honestly w I mean they were successful last year with

Bryce Young, despite a Bryce Young, right? Despite. So, I mean, there might be value there in the plus three thirty. So despite Bryce Young, but the Bucks, I'm just going to cha take the Bucks as a I'm not confident, but they're the best of the worst in the division. Let's say that.

We move on to maybe the heavyweight division of the world, and that's the N NFC West. And that is with our Super Bowl odds on favorite, the LA Rams, minus 120, the Seattle Seahawks defending undisputed champions of the world, plus 220, the 49ers at plus 350, and the Cardinals well behind it plus what do you think they are plus? Plus 10,000. Plus 10,000. Well, you have

Austin from Ajax (1:02:00)
Holy

Kyle Blondin (1:02:03)
three potential Super Bowl contenders here, and then you have the Cardinals.

So that's that's a tough one to I mean the Cardinals are not looking good in their own division. They may not get a win in their division here. So let's start with this is that the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champions. However, the Rams are the favorite. I know that the Rams picked up Miles Garrett in a big trade with the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, the Seahawks being disrespected here.

Austin from Ajax (1:02:30)
Very disrespected. Very disrespected.

Kyle Blondin (1:02:33)
Okay.

Austin from Ajax (1:02:34)
That's my boy. That's my boy, Sam Darnold.

Kyle Blondin (1:02:37)
Okay, but either not

okay, unless you agree that you're gonna choose somebody other than the Rams or the Seahawks, then you you are a part of that disrespect. So who you gonna take to win

Austin from Ajax (1:02:47)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:02:47)
division?

Austin from Ajax (1:02:48)
you know what? No, I'm taking here's the thing. Right now, this bet is based on I'm betting on the numbers. I'm not betting on you're giving me a straight bet and I'm picking who I'm gonna win. I'm looking at what has better value. And that is clearly Seattle. You know, it it I guess it comes down. Seattle beat the Rams in the playoffs last year. You know, Stafford's getting older. I kinda think it comes down to, you know.

How massive is the impact of Miles Garrett going to a team like this? Like a guy coming off a season of what, twenty sacks? Going to the you know, maybe the sec last year you'd call him the second best team in football. And but I I don't know. Seattle Seattle is a legit team, a legit threat. And I don't think they're going anywhere. I I like Seattle over the Rams in this division. San Fran, you know, getting Mike Evans, what a huge ad.

You know, that could that could honestly make them make them even more dangerous. but I think you gotta go with Seattle. I'm a big Sam Darnold guy. I I feel like he's consistent. I feel like I don't know, there's no reason to doubt Seattle. They dominated the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl, they they technically, listen, it was the shittiest Super Bowl I ever watched, but technically it was the most dominant Super Bowl I've ever witnessed. The other team d it was a shutout.

They didn't they didn't allow the Patriots to score a single point. You know what I mean? So I'm not I'm not doubting Seattle here. I'm not doubting my boy Sam Darnold. I might even eat a fleo fish.

Kyle Blondin (1:04:21)
What?

Austin from Ajax (1:04:22)
I might even dili del I might even eat a fleo fish on air just for fun out of respect for the man. Or did did did the Patriots score a point? Did they score three? They score three?

Kyle Blondin (1:04:30)
Yes, like geese.

Austin from Ajax (1:04:32)
I if they scored okay, I might a I might have been thinking not a touchdown. That's what I might have been thinking. What? No. That that man, that was an awful

Kyle Blondin (1:04:35)
It was twenty nine thirteen. Yes. Only you know, it was only witnessed by a couple of billion

people watching the Superbowl, man. That's

Austin from Ajax (1:04:42)
Yeah.

It listen, it was a awful performance. I'm sorry. They didn't score a point. That's what it felt like. You know, I

Sorry for the amateur.

Kyle Blondin (1:04:52)
Man, you really disrespected

the Patriots there. Wow. That's a huge disrespect to Mike Frabel,

Austin from Ajax (1:04:57)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:04:58)
Mark Frabel, and the Patriots. That's right.

Austin from Ajax (1:05:00)
he's a dirty cheater anyways.

Kyle Blondin (1:05:03)
So I think you're correct. I think the value is the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams obviously were you know one reverse pass, sorry, one coach's challenge or booth review away from maybe representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

on that you know that sam darnal play for the two point conversion that was weird. that was a difference on how things lined up and playing at home or not playing at home. so that's that's a big factor and they they're legit, no question. Matthew Stafford was the NFL MVP and he deserved deservedly so had it. He had it, you know, the MVP for a while and it was kind of dipping a little bit from Drake May coming back into the mix. But he earned it. He deserved it. But he's an old man. I mean there it's there's a

You know, the who who says he's gonna stay healthy, right? One you know, problem with with the availability of Matthew Stafford, that Super Bowl win that Super Bowl hope goes out the window, right? It goes out the window. are they gonna get Aaron Donald back? Is he gonna come out of retirement? It's a possibility that he sticks around and waits to see how the season's going. I don't think there's a rush for him to come back. Do you think it's best for him to hop on a plane and go to Australia?

As potentially his first game back. No. so I look at this division. I think Seahawks, Mike McDonald, head coach of the Seahawks, is legit. I think he runs a great program. I am a little you know, concerned about the running back situation. Running, you know, Walker has gone to the Chiefs, Charbonnet is there, but he's not your feature back, and they got a younger kid that's gonna probably take the bulk of the touches as their featured running back. That's my only concern with them. the 49ers.

Kittle's questionable to even, you know, head out to game to to first game, week one. I mean, it really bugs me that these two teams, the 49ers and Rams, are gonna be having to start out in Australia. What, you know, it's not even like they have a bye week the next week. What

Austin from Ajax (1:07:06)
god.

Kyle Blondin (1:07:06)
what's that gonna look like coming back? Are they gonna be able to function at a high level? Is this gonna put them behind the eight ball and maybe not challenge for the division? So that's a concern to me, and that gives me the Seahawks more of an advantage, in my opinion.

so and then the Cardinals. All right. The only the only reason why you're watching the Cardinals is Jeremiah Love running back from Notre Dame, their first round pick. He's got a high ankle sprain, but he's an explosive running back. Could be some promise there. They got Marvin Harrison Jr. that's yet to live up to his promise. So but who's gonna give him the ball? Jacoby Brissett's an NFL quarterback, solid, but he's not your franchise. Is Carson Beck, your quarterback, you know, out of Miami?

I I don't know, you're gonna see a lot of stories come out of Arizona, but they're they're just over their heads in the division they're in. And I think they're in the mix for those six quarterbacks that potentially could be drafted in the first round. so I like the Seahawks to win it, and I think it's helped by that Australia games that that the Rams and the 49ers gotta participate in at the kickoff the year.

Austin from Ajax (1:08:09)
Some great insight there.

Kyle Blondin (1:08:10)
Of

course, that's me. All right, what

do you can say? Anyway, that is our division preview, and we're gonna end it off with what are our value plays for the Super Bowl. And the Super Bowl right now is the Rams plus 500, the Bills plus 1000, even though they haven't even sniffed a Super Bowl during Josh Allen's tenure, and ple betters believe that maybe this is the year that they'll represent the AFC East. So the Seahawks plus 1200 and the Ravens plus 1200.

And it goes on and on. where where's the value here? what do you like for the Super Bowl? If you are going to place money, what is worth your time to place money on here?

Austin from Ajax (1:08:51)
So I'm actually going a little down the list. I'm not sure if we'll agree on this one. and it comes down to the quarterback here being literally probably he's got to be the number one quarterback in football, which he's capable of. But I see the the Cincinnati Bengals at twenty two hundred. plus

Kyle Blondin (1:09:06)
my god.

Austin from Ajax (1:09:06)
plus twenty two hundred. you know, I wouldn't be surprised if they went on a run. I got a weird feeling. listen, I don't know if it's Super Bowl bound, but I got a weird feeling the Cowboys could have a big year. I don't know why.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:18)
my god. You're

ruining your credibility here, man. my

Austin from Ajax (1:09:20)
At nineteen hundred.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:22)
god.

Austin from Ajax (1:09:23)
Chiefs Chiefs being like number eight on the list, you know, good bet there. I I I I'm trying to lock in right now my like fr my value pick. maybe maybe you can make your pick and then I can lock mine in.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:37)
Okay, I'm gonna say that there is value on the Chiefs. even though I said that the Broncos would win the division, I think the Chiefs will get to the playoffs. I think you having plus 1700 for the Chiefs despite the injury. I think everybody's writing off the Chiefs. Travis Kelsey's pr I don't know, he's on his last legs. But Andy Reid's, you know, 20 plus years NFL head coach. I think he's got a few tricks up his sleeve, and he got the best quarterback on the planet. I still agree he is. Patrick Mahomes.

And maybe there's value on the Lions as well. plus nineteen

Austin from Ajax (1:10:09)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:10:09)
hundred, my opinion.

Austin from Ajax (1:10:11)
You know what? Value play? Detroit Lions. Let's see Gibbs have a dominant year. AFC player, AFC offensive player of the year. Or yeah. I think I think Lions are my pick. Plus nineteen hundred. I see a lot

Kyle Blondin (1:10:27)
Okay. All right. And then

Austin from Ajax (1:10:29)
of value here though. I what do you think of the Rams at plus five hundred? Do you think that's a little much with the Miles Garrett? You think that's justified?

Kyle Blondin (1:10:41)
I guess. I mean, they got a stack roster. I mean, Sean McVay, head coach, has a lot of credibility that he is one of the top tier coaches. So you got the whole mix, right? You got the offense, you have the reigning NFL MVP a quarterback. You have Puka and you have Devonta Adams. you have the running situation, your defense has improved. I mean, we've always talked about the Rams having a great no name defensive line, young players, great draft. I mean, the Rams got it all.

The Rams have the the the drafting capability to find diamonds in the rough. The coach, offense, defense, I mean they got up the whole thing, but I mean, I I don't know if you're gonna put f plus five hundred. I I'd rather stick to more of a value where I see other teams making a run. The NFL season is long, injuries play a big role in it. so I'm not sold on the Rams necessarily being heads above everybody else

Austin from Ajax (1:11:34)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:11:34)
when it comes to the end of the season.

Austin from Ajax (1:11:37)
It's not like baseball when you see the Dodgers and it's just a clear pick, you know? At the end of the day, when you look at the Rams being f plus five hundred and then the Seattle Seahawks at plus twelve hundred, it makes you think it should be a little closer than that. I think just

Kyle Blondin (1:11:51)
It does.

Austin from Ajax (1:11:52)
looking at the I think looking at the Seahawks is what really makes me think, maybe this should be plus nine hundred. You know what I mean? Like

Kyle Blondin (1:11:58)
Right.

Austin from Ajax (1:11:59)
It's interesting.

Kyle Blondin (1:12:00)
So okay. And then what about any thoughts on do have the MVP numbers in front of you?

Austin from Ajax (1:12:08)
I can in a second here.

Sure.

Kyle Blondin (1:12:22)
If you want to name off the favorites.

Austin from Ajax (1:12:24)
I do not have it in front of me. I don't know why it's not.

Kyle Blondin (1:12:26)
boy.

Austin from Ajax (1:12:27)
Awards. okay. MVP. All right. So we got Josh Allen, number one, plus seven hundred. We got Joe Burrow, number two, at plus eight fifty. And then we got Laj Lamar Jackson at eight fifty as well. Followed by Matthew Stafford at plus one thousand. Justin Herbert one thousand and Drake May one thousand, which I really don't like that one, honestly.

Anything stand out to you with the top six here? There's a lot more on the list. Mahomes at plus thirteen hundred. we got Sam Darnold at twenty

Kyle Blondin (1:12:55)
Sam Dark?

Austin from Ajax (1:12:55)
five hundred.

Kyle Blondin (1:12:58)
Loser.

Austin from Ajax (1:12:59)
But you guys know I've been kind of on Cincinnati, so I think Joe Burrow plus eight fifty may be my play.

Kyle Blondin (1:13:09)
Joey V, huh?

Austin from Ajax (1:13:11)
Joey B for MVP. And just a little thing to mention here. I I hate picking anything other than quarterback for MVP betting. it just

Kyle Blondin (1:13:20)
Yeah. Yeah. I I

Austin from Ajax (1:13:21)
fe it feels like it's never gonna happen, despite how good these guys are. You know, it's almost like

Kyle Blondin (1:13:25)
Yeah.

Austin from Ajax (1:13:26)
the the offensive player award is for position players and quarterback is for MVP. You know what saying? That's how it feels.

Kyle Blondin (1:13:31)
I agree.

Here's what I'm going to say is I'm going to say that it's not going to be the sexiest choice because he's number one on the list, but when you look at that division and the teams he's going to mow through, I I gotta believe that the Bills are gonna be contending for that number one seed. You know, he's gotta play the Dolphins and Jets twice and maybe an underwhelming Pats team that I think they're gonna be gunning for. So I'll take the Bills, I'll take Josh Allen as MVP. I think he's gonna light it up.

And I think he's I don't know what their playoff run is gonna look like, to be honest, but I think that he's gonna be in such control from start to finish in the AFC that he's going to be out of the gate as the number one. And I think it's gonna be tough for anybody else to supersede him. That's what I think. So put me down as Josh Allen. What are the odds there for Allen? Plus what?

Austin from Ajax (1:14:19)
That j all

it's our plus seven hundred for Allen.

Kyle Blondin (1:14:23)
Okay.

Okay, I think we've taken an hour and eleven minutes of podcast time to kick us off for the new season. It's exciting to be back. How did it feel doing another pod after such a an extended break?

Austin from Ajax (1:14:37)
It feels good. I'm I'm excited to get into the routine of it. You know, when the the NFL season starts, you know, it's easy to just roll out this podcast. There's there's tons to talk about week in and week out. I don't know if we're gonna get on here before the season or after. You know, I guess we'll get on here for week one breakdown, games we think are gonna win picks, right?

Kyle Blondin (1:14:58)
Yeah, we could we'll figure out what or why it could be that or or earlier. It's up to it's up to us to make that call. So we'll probably have to pencil out a schedule for our viewers and our listeners a little better than maybe we haven't previously. But also before we leave, reminder you can follow the overrated experience on X at overrated EXP E R two. That is overrated E X P E R two. And we also understand, Austin, that you've been doing some moonlighting as a Twitch star.

Did you want

Austin from Ajax (1:15:27)
Ha ha.

Kyle Blondin (1:15:27)
to shout out your Twitch channel and what it's for?

Austin from Ajax (1:15:30)
I guess I guess I'll shout out my Twitch channel here. It's HaSUp Games, H O S S Up Games at Twitch, I guess. I just I mean I I'm a big gamer, so I figured why not just stream while I game if people want to watch. I I don't know how many people actually want to watch, but every once in a while, you know, you'll have two, three people in there watching you play. So you know, i it's more for for fun. You can also while you're gaming, you know, you can record clips and stuff. That's what I really like.

But it's been fun and I'd appreci

Kyle Blondin (1:15:58)
And what are you playing?

Austin from Ajax (1:16:00)
game called Arc Raiders. But I mean I'm not limited to any game. Just any game I'll be playing at the time, say a new game comes out, I could stream that, you know what I mean? Or anything I want on a stream. I'll I'll do it for,

Kyle Blondin (1:16:10)
All right.

Austin from Ajax (1:16:11)
you know, maybe I don't know, five five to ten hours a week maybe, but I've been having fun with it, so

Kyle Blondin (1:16:17)
Shout it out again, what's where they can find you on Twitch?

Austin from Ajax (1:16:20)
Hoss Up Games at Twitch.

Kyle Blondin (1:16:23)
Okay, so fans get in there and check Austin out in a different world that you've never seen him before outside of the sporting network. And maybe as the year goes on, we will have more concrete facts, which we missed today because there's no concrete facts, unless you have one at the top of your

Austin from Ajax (1:16:36)
Ooh. no,

I wasn't really I wasn't really solid on that one this week.

Kyle Blondin (1:16:42)
Solid now and yeah, that's

well the jokes are gonna get better as the year goes on, because that was not an A plus joke, but we'll give you a pass because it's only our first podcast of the new season. So the overrated experience is you know, I think we're done for today finishing your division winners, your MVP, your Super Bowl. that's our thoughts and that's what we're gonna stick with. The pleasure's been all yours. The overrated experience is over and out.

Austin from Ajax (1:17:07)
Awesome from Ajax. We're out.

Kyle Blondin (1:17:10)
Okay, now I've got to stop the podcast in one second. So just hold on, Austin. Hold smile as I do that. And we are stopping now. Adios.