S4E31 - NFL Super Bowl 60 Week - Betting Preview

Austin from Ajax joins us on the road to Super Bowl week.

We look at the early look at the betting lines and discuss props we will be keeping and eye on leading up to the big game.

• Will Sam Darnold get the job done... ?? 
• Who will be Super Bowl MVP?
• Excited for Bad Bunny?

00:00 Super Bowl Excitement and Anticipation
05:27 Super Bowl Week Timeline and Events
12:46 Sam Darnold's Journey and NFL Dynamics
17:28 NFL Awards Predictions and Player Performances
18:14 Emerging Talents in the NFL
19:28 The Comeback Player of the Year
20:46 Rookie of the Year Candidates
29:34 Entertainment Betting Strategies
37:04 Key Players to Watch in the Super Bowl
42:20 Bill Belichick's Legacy and Controversies

Follow Overrated Experience Pod on Twitter @OverratedExper2

Join the Overrated Experience Sports Betting Facebook Page

Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/overratedexperience/

Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome to the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Winder along with

Austin From... You Know Where (00:07)
Awesome for Mayjacks, baby, but you already knew.

Kyle Blondin (00:09)
There we go. So we're here on video. We're here on audio to make your Sunday absolutely amazing. This is the first Sunday in a long time where we do not have NFL football, but we are one week away from Superbowl 60, the Seattle Seahawks taking on the New England Patriots. Awesome. What's your excitement level right now at a 10?

Austin From... You Know Where (00:34)
Honestly I gotta say an 8. These are definitely top 2 teams from each side. Seahawks definitely being the best. You can't complain. Honestly I am fired up. I'm excited for a good one here. What are your thoughts?

Kyle Blondin (00:46)
I'm not there yet, I think I'm a 7. I'll say a 7, well, because the, buy week sucks, you know, there's nothing to sink your teeth into, an actual game to look forward to. So not, I understand the need for the buy week, I get it, it just sucks, that's all. But I'll get more pumped as the stories get...

told and told throughout, you know, one week from now, we'll hear so much about Sam Darnold and his journey in his career. We'll hear a lot about Mike Rable and the New England Patriots. And we're going to hear a lot about ⁓ many stories and the lead up to the halftime show. You excited for the halftime show, Bad Bunny?

Austin From... You Know Where (01:29)
I think so and Bad Bunny and Green Day, of the best bands out there, Green Day. I think honestly, I did my recap of the year for my Apple Music and I think Bad Bunny might've been like seven or eight or something. I've definitely, yeah, it's not bad. They're all in Spanish so I don't wanna even attempt, honestly. No, I can't, they're Spanish words so I didn't remember them, you know?

Kyle Blondin (01:41)
Really? Can you name two of his songs?

Try it, give me a try, come on.

But you would know where to find the songs if you had to. Okay. All right, so Bad Bunny is your boy. I'll give Bad Bunny credit that he has spent time in the WWE, wrestling. You didn't know that?

Austin From... You Know Where (01:59)
Yeah, of course. Yeah, I got a couple albums downloaded, so.

Really? I did not know that.

No, I didn't know he ⁓ fought in the WWE. That's hilarious.

Kyle Blondin (02:15)
About a year ago, he

had one of the greatest entrances when they had their pay-per-view in Puerto Rico, Backlash. And he came out, because it was a street fight with Damian Priest. So he actually, he got my respect because he was all in, right? He was not just the guy showing up. He was all in for a run with the WWE and put his body on the line, took it seriously, did a really good job.

Austin From... You Know Where (02:23)
Hmm.

Kyle Blondin (02:38)
So I give somebody props there. He's got a couple good songs. So I'm not hung up on the halftime show. A lot of people, for whatever reason, believe this is controversial, but to each his own. you know what? Next week maybe we'll even have some of our novelty picks because a lot of ⁓ bats include things like what songs Bad Bunny will play, not play, who will join him on stage. So now that I know you're the Bad Bunny expert, all right?

Austin From... You Know Where (02:42)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Yeah. Hey,

you already know Cardi B is going to make an appearance plus 200. You got to move now. I'm just kidding. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (03:09)
You gotta move now. That's right, it was plus 200.

She's the favorite to join him on in the performance. The connection with Stephane Diggs. So, what's this episode about? Well, first of all, I gotta mention you gotta join the ⁓ podcast on Axe at overrated EXPER2. That's overrated EXPER2. Austin from Ajax, I still don't see a handle on Axe from you. ⁓ So I'm hoping that by the Super Bowl you will have.

in X profile. I get a commitment?

Austin From... You Know Where (03:43)
No, you guys can you guys can find me on Instagram? K Phillips two two two zero give me a follow a follow back any fan of the any fan of the show is a friend of mine

Kyle Blondin (03:47)
Just sad.

Okay, how about creating an, why not create an X profile?

Why not create an X?

Austin From... You Know Where (03:58)
I had one back in the day. just, I don't know, grew bored of that. Don't not a fan. ⁓ I am officially, I actually will officially go out of my way not to commit. Maybe one day, but I don't know. I what you guys want to really hear my tweets. If we get, if there's a petition, five people sign it. I will officially create an X account, a new one. All right. I need five signatures on paper. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (04:02)
I think our fans want to hear you win X. Can you commit to it? You gotta promote the pod.

come on!

One day.

Okay, we'll get a petition over there. We'll scour the city.

Austin From... You Know Where (04:28)
Yeah, printer paper.

Kyle Blondin (04:29)
Alright, so anybody out there listening, please,

to get me to convince Austin Ramayjax to pump out an X-Profile so we can start pumping this podcast up, please leave me a message at overrated eXPER2, overrated eXPER2, and that's calling out Austin Ramayjax. He needs to get on the X. So I need that support. I need at least five commitments from you, the audience, to post that our way.

so that he has no choice, absolutely no choice but to get on X. So we'll see how that plays out and hopefully our listeners ⁓ stick it to you and bring up that they want Austin from Ajax on X. And this podcast is not gonna be the official plays just yet for the Super Bowl. We are one week out. This is a conversation about the whole event itself. We're gonna look at some early lines, have some discussion on some of the top players and the props. Props is absolutely huge.

⁓ and look at some of the stories around the NFL right now. ⁓ So we got, it's such a massive week and we're gonna do some ⁓ fun things here including walk through exactly the timeline. So the timeline just to get you going here Austin, just looking at what we, what to expect on a Super Bowl week. So Monday, February 2nd is opening night, fueled by Gatorade teams take, make their first public appearance on Super Bowl week.

and usually speeches from coaches, selected players. So that's when the teams will first talk ⁓ and they arrive in, I don't have the dates when the Seahawks or the Patriots actually set down in Santa Monica where the Super Bowl is gonna take place. The media center opens Tuesday. ⁓ Pro ball games, flag football, yeah. there's, did you know that Tuesday that the pro ball game is happening? It's a flag football game, AFC versus NFC.

Austin From... You Know Where (06:23)
I didn't, I

honestly, I would have probably assumed it was today. I did not know it was on the Tuesday.

Kyle Blondin (06:29)
Well, used to be the week after, no, it used to be originally the week after the Super Bowl. And then it became the week in between and then it turned into a flag football game because nobody's watching this shit. So Pro Bowl happening Tuesday, flag football, it's probably the best they can do to be honest for interest. And then you have the Super Bowl Experience Opens, this is an interactive fan festival that opens up for fans. And it runs through Saturday, February 7th.

And then we got Media Day on February 4th. And any favorite Media Day moments that you recall back in the day?

Austin From... You Know Where (07:07)
Favorite media day moments? mean, there's that classic Tom Brady video. think it was, they were asking Tom Brady who his hero was, and he said his dad, and obviously that's an emotional moment. Funny enough though, I actually did see a clip of that, and then they're like, who's the biggest inspiration to you? And he's like, my dad. And then it cuts to Eli Manning going off, you know what I mean? That's a good one, but ⁓ other than that.

Kyle Blondin (07:17)
Yes.

There's also Marshawn Lynch

to refuse to speak to the media I'm up here because I don't want to get fined and he wouldn't answer a question. He just I'm here because I don't want to get fined So but there's a lot of like the media day brings in more than the traditional NFL media So anybody across the world Mexico like, you Europe they're all there to Join in and ask questions and some try to get unique

Austin From... You Know Where (07:38)
yeah, what did he used to say? Yeah, exactly.

Classic.

Kyle Blondin (08:01)
So I told you before the podcast, we're gonna play a kind of a game here. You're gonna play the part of your boy, Sam Darnold, and I'm gonna play the part of like some jackass media member who's asking inappropriate questions or framing the question inappropriately. And you're gonna take the high road and answer based on cliches and very boring answers, okay? Are you ready?

Austin From... You Know Where (08:08)
Okay.

Jesus.

Okay.

I'll give it my best. Let's do it.

Kyle Blondin (08:28)
Alright Mr. Darnold, this is Billy Johnson from ⁓ the Tallahassee Gazette. I'm here to talk about NFL football. So my first question Mr. Darnold, pleasure to be here by the way, well congratulations.

Austin From... You Know Where (08:42)
Thank you,

Kyle Blondin (08:44)
that's absolutely.

Sam Darnold, I think a lot of people want to know that you're known as the ultimate choker. You kind of have that reputation of being a total loser when it comes to pressure. Are you even surprised you haven't shit yourself yet up to this point with the massive pressure you have probably faced getting to this point?

Austin From... You Know Where (09:01)
Alright.

You know what, how dare you sir? My record, my win record speaks for itself. I don't need to justify things to you. Look at where the Vikings are.

Kyle Blondin (09:12)
You're missing the point of the whole exercise here.

You need the answer in a professional manner.

Austin From... You Know Where (09:17)
I can't do that.

Kyle Blondin (09:23)
You're supposed to say that ⁓ I'm very, you know, it's all about the team and ⁓ with the grace of God, you know, the teammates have really helped me get to this point and I feel that we're ready for the next challenge.

Austin From... You Know Where (09:36)
Alright, that's not my version of Sam Darnold, alright? This filet of fish is spicy. Alright, we got a new item on the menu now.

Kyle Blondin (09:37)
Okay. Okay, what's your verdict?

Okay, so basically your Sam Darnold version is a little more chip on a shoulder. ⁓

Austin From... You Know Where (09:51)
Yeah, you know,

you know, maybe the reason why I'm that version of him is because, know, this guy until maybe now this guy, Sam Darnold's never gotten any respect. You know, he hasn't even, I don't even think people really looked at him as like a top 10 quarterback. And, know, I could probably argue he's within the top five now. I mean, where's everybody else? Yes. His efficiency. Like, look, there's a reason why, ⁓ the Vikings, did they not, they just, they fired their head coach, right? Their general manager. Okay.

Kyle Blondin (10:08)
Really? Top 5?

Ahem.

No, they're general manager.

Yes.

Austin From... You Know Where (10:21)
I gotta assume though that's factored in letting go of Darnold. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (10:25)
That

whole scenario is very weird how it played out because you would have thought if they were going to fire and make that decision for their general manager, it would have happened immediately after the season. Just like kind of like coaching decisions take place. But the decision was made after they had sent this guy to the senior bowl to scout for the Minnesota Vikings. Then he comes home.

And they decide, that's it, we're done here, you're out.

Austin From... You Know Where (10:58)
Well, I heard this and this was like fan accounts on Instagram, but they're saying like, Sam Darnold got to the super bowl and that's why this guy is fired. You know what I mean? I mean, straight up, you can't tell me the Minnesota Vikings with Sam Darnold. You can't tell me they're not a playoff team.

Kyle Blondin (11:08)
What?

I think there's a chance that, know, okay, there's no question, like the quarterback situation in Minnesota fell apart, right? They decided not to resign or aggressively go after Sam Darnold and he leaves for Seattle. They hung their hat on JJ McCarthy and I gotta believe that they're thinking, fuck, we're screwed. Like, we're like, don't, I gotta believe this is kind of like an Anthony Richardson situation in Indy where, ⁓

they're raising a red flag that we may not have our franchise quarterback. We may have put our chips into the wrong ⁓ pile here because this guy might not be the guy. Remember they also had Danny ⁓ Daniel Jones ⁓ backing up late in that year last year and he left. So they were all in on JJ McCarthy and it did not work. It did not work. and the victim of that is obviously a general manager, Quasi ⁓ Quasi ⁓

Jesus man Adolfo Mensee Wow

Austin From... You Know Where (12:17)
I just,

really think the Minnesota Vikings took a gamble. mean, at end of the day, Sam Darnold, he gave you a 14 and four season and he's, this guy did that for your franchise and you know, he's getting paid big money. Don't get me wrong, but you know, he's on a three year, Sam Darnold's on a three year, a hundred million dollar contract, a hundred million and a half dollars for three years. And it's like, yeah, that's a lot of money. But I mean, guys like my homes are getting 500 for their entire career. know, you're getting Sam Darnold's prime.

Kyle Blondin (12:39)
Yeah.

Austin From... You Know Where (12:46)
I just don't think, like they're putting their faith in a guy, but there's too much uncertainty there. The Vikings should have been a win now franchise. Justin Jefferson, they got one of the best, one of the best wide receiver tandems in, ⁓ in the whole game. And you know, taking a, taking a shot at a rookie when, a guy just gave you 14, ⁓ wins in a season, it's just mind boggling to me. But I mean, you know, I've always been a big Sam Darnold fan. ⁓ you know, I don't think he's the sexiest quarterback, but he, always seems to get the job done.

Kyle Blondin (13:08)
Look, yeah.

Austin From... You Know Where (13:15)
always seems like he's like underrated and you know he's one game away from a Super Bowl now so

Kyle Blondin (13:22)
Yeah, hey, that's great credit where credit is due here is I even thought Sam Darnold after what we saw in Minnesota was, right, he's peaked. He's going to get you a solid season. If you got a strong team around him, he's not going to be necessarily the quarterback's going to raise up all that underachieving talent. But he got the job done and kind of fell apart to me in those tough pressure games against the Rams and Lions late in that year last year. So I was skeptical.

But let's look at some of the organizations out there that have a thought process, a pathway to success. And Mike McDonald, second year, just coming off one season as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, decided that, you know what, Geno Smith's not my guy. He's not gonna get us where we wanna go. They made the trade with the Raiders. They got rid of Geno Smith, which I thought at the time, probably for the Raiders, that was a good move because of the fact.

They had nothing a quarterback that obviously didn't work out as they're going to be drafting first overall. And then when they decided to pick up Sam Darnold, the thought was, did they really upgrade? But apparently, Mike McDonald's vision was spot on and bang on. The team he wanted to build, Sam Darnold was the guy to make that Seahawk team take that next step. Remember, they signed Cooper Cup as well.

And I thought he was done. He was done pretty much the whole year. But you can't argue the role he played, especially in that ⁓ conference championship we've seen last week. He was critical. Probably the most controversial catch to get that first down. But he was critical, Cooper Cups. So Mike McDonald, absolutely on fire when it comes to making the unpopular decision, the one that not everybody's backing at the time of the decision, and then you look like a genius.

That's what he looks like. He looks like genius.

Austin From... You Know Where (15:19)
Yeah. Cooper cup. what a great ad. I'm sure, I'm sure they got him on a massive discount. You know, he's just, he's been there before, right? He, Cooper cup has a super bowl. So, you know, you'd want a guy like that on your team, even if he's lost a bit of a step, know, and honestly, obviously I need a second here, but I want to see how much he's making a per year. Cause I think it's a massive discount discount.

Kyle Blondin (15:27)
Yes.

All

right, so when you do that, I'll just go back to the festivities that have taken place. And so we got media day on Wednesday where Sam Darnold here didn't want to participate. And then we have Thursday, we have the NFL awards. So this is where we're going to find out who the MVP is. And Sammy Darnold is number, sorry, our favorite right now still is Matthew Stafford. What do you think? What's like, do you believe that when the announcement comes out,

It's Matty Staff for the guy.

Austin From... You Know Where (16:11)
So, ⁓ I, I still think it should be Matthew Stafford. know Drake mays the guy who's in the super bowl right now, but officially with the voting, I'm pretty sure you cannot factor in the playoffs, right? So if we're going off straight off, if we're going straight off regular season, ⁓ I still think it's Stafford. you know, Drake may, would I throw a fit if Drake may was the guy to win? No, but I still would think it's like the wrong answer. I would think that there's a little bit of rookie bias. Like, I don't really know, like not rookie, but you know I'm saying?

Kyle Blondin (16:23)
No, you can't.

Austin From... You Know Where (16:42)
I think, I think you got to give it to, ⁓ Stafford. What are you, what are your thoughts? You know, I've been on Stafford all year. I've been telling, ⁓ our concrete community and our listeners take, take him, take him, take him every time that line switched. So I got it. I got to stay true here.

Kyle Blondin (16:59)
Yeah,

the opportunity we sat here on the podcast, like you mentioned, and we talked about Matthew Stafford, especially when he dropped back that one week where Drake May took over. And now it looks like Matthew Stafford's a runaway favorite here, minus 900 to win the award. And that value was there earlier on in the season, what everything looked like. It was going to be Matthew Stafford. And Drake May is a far distance, number two at plus 650. And everybody else is.

Austin From... You Know Where (17:14)
Wow.

Kyle Blondin (17:28)
Like Josh Allen's number three. Like I can't see him winning an MVP at all. So it's down to two, but really it's over. The race looks like it's gonna be over and it's gonna be Matthew Stafford at minus 900. That sucks because we had a chance. And the coach of the year, rookie of the year. So right now for the awards, we have offensive player of the year and Jigba's actually the favorite, which surprises me, right? And Jigba had a great year, but Puka's number two at plus 750.

Is there a shot that Puka can win this? Offensive player of the year? 750, plus 750.

Austin From... You Know Where (18:02)
I mean, if I'm not, I mean, Pooka, I

I'm pretty sure JSN has games on Pooka. Is that not did Pooka miss a couple of games this year? I'm pretty sure he did. I think Jason had a right, a pretty healthy season. I don't know, man. These guys are like, they're interchangeable, ⁓ like one and two receivers. It's too hard to tell both of them had such phenomenal seasons. you know, even, even at a fantasy standpoint, like say you're, say you're the first pick off the board, you want a wide receiver. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (18:14)
He did.

He did, yeah.

Austin From... You Know Where (18:32)
you know, do you really care which one of those two guys you get? You know what I mean? ⁓ just do amazing talents.

Kyle Blondin (18:39)
Yeah, for some reason I feel like Puka stood out more, like more dominant. And it's probably because of those couple games he did miss ⁓ that probably is the difference.

Austin From... You Know Where (18:44)
Yeah, but-

See po-

Puka may have been better, but also JSN, this was the one year he truly emerged. Before this, he was not the same guy. So I think there could be a little bit of like all the eyes are on him. Like, holy shit, like he, this is the biggest breakout we've seen in years, right? Cause he's been in the NFL for what, two, three seasons already playing with Lockett and DK Metcalf. And then those two guys leave and he's like, Hey, I'm the guy now. And you know, the whole league's looking at him as kind of like the new contender for number one at the very least.

Kyle Blondin (18:56)
Yes.

Austin From... You Know Where (19:21)
It's been fun to watch. It's been fun to watch. you know, I obviously I think Darnold's a factor in that, but wow, JSN, what a talent.

Kyle Blondin (19:21)
I am the Captain now.

Now kudos again, Mike McDonald, you know, I forgot about that, you know, letting DK Metcalf go and Tyler Lockett giving Njigba the respect to be the number one guy. And it's paid off, like it absolutely paid off. Every move he's made has turned to gold so far. So you got the offensive, looks like it's gonna be Njigba. Who do you think the comeback player of the year is? Minus 4,000.

Austin From... You Know Where (19:49)
Comeback Player of Year.

Kyle Blondin (19:50)
He helped you in fantasy, a lot.

Austin From... You Know Where (19:52)
He helped me. ⁓ Christian McCaffrey has to be right. Yeah. ⁓ he, you know what? Yeah. Everyone. Yeah. McCaffrey like, man, the amount of people who I like, I've talked to about McCaffrey this year and they're just like, yeah, he's, he's back. Like, I think a lot of people still even view him as like, this is the number one running back. And it's like, you know, I think he's, he's lost us a slight step, but, the guy's still a stud. ⁓ you know,

Kyle Blondin (19:54)
That's right. Yep, he's minus 4,000.

Defensive

defensive player of the year. I don't think it's too hard to figure this one out. We've got the sack record Miles Garrett runaway and who do you the rookie is?

Austin From... You Know Where (20:23)
Yep, Miles Garrett, of course. Yeah.

Rookie of the year. Rookie of the.

Kyle Blondin (20:30)
Think wide receiver,

think a team that has shit quarterback, lost against the Rams in the playoffs.

Austin From... You Know Where (20:36)
Lost against, ⁓ I'm tripping. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (20:41)
Think South, think Carolina.

Austin From... You Know Where (20:45)
⁓ Macmillan. Macmillan. Wow. He, Macmillan's the rookie of the year candidate. Really? I mean, he, yeah. He had, I had him in my, fantasy league, for the four one six that actually won. And yeah, he was a great pick. He was always like a big depth guy. Like every, you know, he wasn't, he would, he wasn't like, ⁓ blowing you away, but he'd have his like a hundred yard weeks out of nowhere. And you know, obviously, obviously that rookie pick was a huge part of Carolina success this year.

Kyle Blondin (20:46)
McMillan, yeah, he's the runaway favorite right now.

He's like the odds on favorite, yes.

Bye.

Right.

Austin From... You Know Where (21:14)
Still such a weird one.

Kyle Blondin (21:15)
It is

weird because I can't believe that a wide receiver with that passing attack is, you know, had a successful season, but he was, he was definitely successful, noticeable, even in the playoffs, had some big catches. So if they just had a quarterback and give him the ball, he might even become more dominant as he gets into second and additional years. So that's kind of what we're looking at on Thursday for the awards. And then we get into, let's see, concerts, Friday, music and networking events.

has nothing to with us Saturday Super Bowl breakfast not to be there for that ⁓ NFL Super Bowl ⁓ Alex flag football game on YouTube this is more like celebrities that play flag football sure that everybody will tune into that garbage and then you get some of the big game the Sunday game kicks off at 630 ⁓ Eastern Standard Time the opening line and hasn't moved since I probably won't move until we get into next week is

Austin From... You Know Where (21:49)
Not this year.

Kyle Blondin (22:15)
Four and a half, the Seahawks open as four and a half point favorites. And right now, the over under is 45 and a half. And I'm looking at the different books, right? I'm using, and this is not a sponsor, but Betstamp. And I'm looking at all the Canadian books. And yeah, it's outside of maybe one book. Power Play, I've never heard of this book before. There at minus four. Majority have the over under 45, 45 and a half.

I'm starting to see some 45s on the board and several bet rivers has 45 and ⁓ some other books you bet unibet or whatever has 45 but the majority still have 45 and a half. What's your initial take on that spread and look I know Sam Darnold your boy and you get into like I gotta protect Sam Darnold I gotta support him I gotta back him up. Well look at it from a neutral point of view is

What's your thoughts on the spread? What do you like so far?

Austin From... You Know Where (23:16)
You know, I'm gonna say, I'm gonna say, my bad. ⁓ It's pretty accurate to what I would have guessed. You know, I clearly do think that Seahawks are the better team. You know, they got that lights out defense. ⁓ If it moved to like four, if it moved to five, I'd be surprised. Four and a half seems right on. Four, I wouldn't be that surprised either. But initially, you know, this is probably around where I would set it.

Kyle Blondin (23:43)
Well, what side would you take right now if you had to make a play?

Austin From... You Know Where (23:47)
If I had to make a play right now, and I still do need to think, so this, yeah, I'm not locked in. Next week I could completely go in a different direction. Just letting the fans know, I don't want you to commit to my thought. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (23:48)
We're not going to lock you into it until next week.

Yes, that's fine. This is lean. This is mean and lean Sunday.

So what's your direction if you had to lean?

Austin From... You Know Where (24:02)
Like a part of me

wants to say the Seahawks, like the Seahawks by seven. That's, that's like what I kind of think this game. I mean, I'm getting into a little bit of the total here, but I think it could be a defensive kind of. Defensive kind of Superbowl, which I mean, I, you know, obviously I want to see the offense for the entertainment, but I can see it coming down to the better defense. And I think the Seahawks could be that, you know, Drake may and Arnold both moving the ball. Well, both great quarterbacks. but I just think.

You know, this is like a 21-17 kind of game. Or maybe not 21, maybe 24-17, something like that. And... I think, I think Seahawks get it done. I, I've been such a fan of Darnold, I think a lot of this game comes down to him, and the belief is there.

Kyle Blondin (24:49)
Okay, okay. So, yeah, go ahead.

Austin From... You Know Where (24:50)
Also, ⁓ one thing for the

fans, I was gonna save this for a little later, but I'm jumping the gun a little bit. If Sam Darnold, and the Seahawks win the Super Bowl and Sam Darnold wins Super Bowl MVP, I will eat a double filet-o-fish live on air. At least one big bite for the viewers.

Kyle Blondin (25:10)
at least one big bite. You gotta finish the whole thing and try to talk at the same time.

Austin From... You Know Where (25:12)
Yeah, I've never, and Hey, I've, I've, I've never had a filet of fish in my

life, but I'm doing it for Donald. I'm doing it. I'm doing it for this man. I respect. No, have you.

Kyle Blondin (25:19)
You've never had a flay of fish?

Yeah, it's not bad. You haven't tried just to change it up on a Friday to have a filet-o-fish.

Austin From... You Know Where (25:25)
Really? No, in my life. 28 years on this earth, never had a flay of fish.

No, and I, and I've met those people that like die by it, like, you know, they go to McDonald's, they only get the Flay-O-Fish never haven't had anything off the menu for 10 years other than that. You know what I mean?

Kyle Blondin (25:45)
Are you trying to say there's

like a Flayofish community out there?

Austin From... You Know Where (25:47)
They're just like the concrete community. Yes, there is a filet of fish community out there. They.

Kyle Blondin (25:51)
Do the filet-o-fish people

interact with the concrete community often? Are they the same people sometimes?

Austin From... You Know Where (25:55)
No,

we actually go in our way to avoid those kind of people. We're quarter pounder guys, so you don't fuck with that.

Kyle Blondin (25:59)
Okay. Quarter pounder guys, get it, okay?

Well, just to look at, I know we just talked about the opening line. I also think right now if I had, if you put a gun to my head and I had to make a decision, I would take the Seahawks. They're on a roll right now, like just a heater. ⁓ But I too could probably be convinced ⁓ to ⁓ give the Patriots a shot straight up, just because ⁓ I think the line's gonna go up. I think it's gonna wind up at six, in my opinion.

Austin From... You Know Where (26:15)
Yeah.

Wow, six, really?

Kyle Blondin (26:28)
I

think it's gonna be six. think the betters are gonna load the pros. Remember it's the professionals out there that change these lines and I think they're gonna some guys gonna have a shady briefcase dumped on a desk at Caesar's Palace and talk about yeah give me a hunch. When I say a hunch, grand on the Seahawks and they're gonna have to move the line to account for those who are hammering the four and a half. That's my thought.

Austin From... You Know Where (26:54)
I will say just a couple thoughts I want to say too, or just a thought. ⁓ You know, if you were betting this game for pure entertainment, you'd probably want to go on the side of the Patriots straight up. Cause there's a clear, obviously they could win this game. You know, this team has been lights out, amazing to watch. At three to one, that seems like great value, but man, do the Seahawks feel like the best team in football. It's hard to go against them. Anything could happen in one game.

But, you know, I'll have to take the week and decide and come back when I'm officially locking down.

Kyle Blondin (27:28)
You have no fear that Sam Darnold's gonna feel the moment. It's gonna be too big for him. He's got to this point. He's looked pretty good. Do feel that he's gonna have one of those three to four interception games that he gets known for? He cracks now and then. What do you think?

Austin From... You Know Where (27:43)
You know, I think I think I'll be eating that filet-o-fish in on air. I think he'll even I think he will win MVP. Yeah, no, I think he will win MVP. I think he'll be solid. think you know as good as he's been he has the odd turnovers I could see I could see this game for whatever reason zero turnover game. I might be looking at that as a prop next week Not zero turnover. Sorry zero interception could be a fumble. That's a little more unpredictable my eyes

Kyle Blondin (27:47)
MVP.

CD

Austin From... You Know Where (28:10)
I'm

rolling. I'm rolling with this guy. I love the same Arnold guy. I think, you know, if he wins the Superbowl, I will be, I might get a Sam Darnold Jersey.

Kyle Blondin (28:19)
See the thing about this is that I had that same thought process on Brady, right? Every time Brady was in a Super Bowl, except once. I always felt like had to defend him. I always felt like I had to back him. And for the most part I did. The only time I did not back him and I got greedy was, and it worked out, was that first Super Bowl against the Giants. the perfect season. And got quite a payday on that one. It was nice back then to get money. ⁓

Austin From... You Know Where (28:39)
The Giants? Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (28:48)
I just don't, and people like are, congratulations, the Patriots got to the Super Bowl. I'm like, look, I'd love to take credit for this, but I'm not really a Patriots fan. I'm more, I was more of a Brady fan. So even I have to like disassociate myself now with the Patriots. So I feel like I gotta put out a press release. Like, no, you know, I'm not associated. ⁓ I will take credit for those six Super Bowls though, and one Super Bowl in Tampa Bay, but I can't take credit for this run. I'm not on a Patriots bandwagon ⁓ without Brady, so.

Just to be clear and public about that, am very neutral and that's how I'm to look at this game and I'm to take a hard look at the lines. Any prop bets that you bet in the Super Bowl that, and again we don't have to look at them necessarily right now, but is there any bets that usually you would bet in a Super Bowl or consider that

Austin From... You Know Where (29:34)
⁓ so, ⁓ no, definitely, you know, like we are, you know, we tried to use our patients on this show. tried to, ⁓ make the great picks for you, but when it comes to the super bowl, you know, there's a little more entertainment factor for me personally. You know, there might be a hundred bucks that I'm willing to lose on like five $20 prop bets, like a heads or a tails, you know, ⁓ one, just something to mention. And, you know, I want to say this.

To all our listeners here, but like one that I usually wouldn't bet is ⁓ the heads or tails, but on FanDuel I don't know if you've seen this it looks like if you put if you put a small bet on the coin toss you actually win a share of ⁓ a million dollars and three million bonus spins Which probably is will be like a free 10 15 bucks something like that. Maybe even less but some free money there I might throw ten bucks in the coin toss ⁓ Funny story. I'll never forget when my my uncle Dilla

Kyle Blondin (30:10)
Yes.

Austin From... You Know Where (30:32)
We got the, it's super bowl, super bowl Sunday and we got the TV in the kitchen, TV in the living room. And I'll never forget the tail. The guy flips the coin. It lands hails tails or sorry, heads, I think. And all I hear is yes. And ever since then, you know, I've always, I've always thought of putting small bets on the, ⁓ coin toss. So with fan duals offer there, I definitely will be sad to see they don't have the Gronk kick there again, but it is what it is.

Kyle Blondin (30:59)
Now I think this replaces

the grand kick, right? This is the simplicity of trying to get people to participate. It's funny how the heads or tails is a big one for Super Bowl that you probably wouldn't bet any other time. If there's a community out there that bets it normally, then hats off to you. I don't see how you're getting an edge one way or the other, but definitely that color of the Kool-Aid or Gatorade that we put over the winning coaches ⁓ after the win. Those are the bets.

you would probably make during the Super Bowl, not regular Sundays. Stuff that stands out to me ⁓ are unique to these games because teams have two weeks to plan and get creative offensively. I know last year, was it last year two years ago? ⁓ No, was two years ago, was this Casey and San Fran where would there be more than two people or three people to throw a pass?

In a game for the 49ers. No, no, no, it'd be more than three people players to throw a pass in the game. It could be both teams and this is it is plus money, right? You have the two quarterbacks. Obviously to make a throw you have the odds are that maybe another quarterback comes in due to injury, but it's usually a player that's a halfback option where they throw it downfield. That's what happened. That was the touchdown. They scored. I think it was Jennings that was the third.

Austin From... You Know Where (32:23)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (32:24)
player credit it with a pass. So those are the things I would look at in a Super Bowl context versus any other Sunday. So that's one I'm keeping an eye out for. There's another one right now that my early look at some of the special bets. This, and I thought this is pretty freaking valuable, right? And it's on FanDuel. And where is it? ⁓ Worldly Patriots have more...

Dammit, let me just look at this again. Will the players rush it? Yeah, well the Patriots have anybody, have more than three and a half players Right? So right now, the last couple games, it's only been Henderson and, ⁓ what's the name, Rashad ⁓ Stevenson ⁓ and Drake May.

Austin From... You Know Where (33:06)
Yeah

Kyle Blondin (33:20)
that had the rush attempts. You tell me that in the Super Bowl for plus 162 that the Patriots might not have a reverse something like that. I gotta believe there is, can't remember, it the Seahawks or the Patriots? It might have been the Seahawks. I can't remember which one. I gotta go back and check now. I know it sucked. But those are the kind of bets that I feel teams will get very creative throwing

Austin From... You Know Where (33:30)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (33:45)
I think these bets have real value to them. Like will there be like more than the average like the number of players that see a reception or see a rush or a pass or make a pass attempt. Those are things are very in play for me heading into next week.

Austin From... You Know Where (33:45)
Hmm.

Mm-hmm. Yeah.

One thing I also want to say here, you know, we preach on this podcast, not necessarily every week, but to diversify your betting accounts, you know, have multiple sports lines or sports books so that you can, uh, you know, find the best odds. But for Superbowl Sunday is not just about that. You know, every website, every betting site is going to have its unique individual offers to take advantage of, even if it's like a 10 or $20 offer on each site. But that adds up and make sure to keep an eye out for kind of the specials, you know, the

the free juice in a way, you know, even we're talking about the coin flip and I remember there's one, it's either bet three, six, five or the score, but they actually, they're going to take no big on the coin toss whatsoever. So, you know, it's, it's small things like that. If you're going to even place these entertainment bets where the odds really could be in your favor, ⁓ because of these boosted odds, you know, so yes, it's entertainment, but it's still strategic. And I think, you know, that's what I'm going to try to come with next week. Some of those bets like, Hey,

You know, they're, they're giving you double the money for touchdown scores up to $10. Maybe that's not a lot, but if you're doing that on three different sites, you know, there's your entertainment bets and there's a way to make some quick, uh, maybe not a ton, but make some quick, easy money.

Kyle Blondin (35:09)
Yeah, I can't agree more. ⁓ I think if you want to test that theory, this is the perfect game to look at and review all the different books out there. You know, take three or four. Look at those props. I guarantee you, will find multiple differences for those props you like. If you like Kenneth hone in on a site that's going to give you the best, even if it's a yard, the best odds that you could possibly take, because it will come down to that.

It'll come down to those kind of situations where yard does matter and you didn't take advantage of it and you were stuck only using fan duel or only stuck using draft Kings. You're to put yourself in a losing situation. So I think that's going to be part of our play as well. I encourage both of us heading into next week to look around beyond the fan duels for those, uh, you know, examples where you're going to get it better on MGM than you do on this or draft Kings has a better here or there.

And ⁓ we gotta point those value plays out and that's exactly what we wanna do is shop around, especially during Super Bowl week. And you might even find a promotion that suits you to put some money in that might be, as a new player, help you out in your bankroll as well. So lot there to discuss. mean, ⁓ thoughts, like what players do you think will have a massive game here that you're gonna be looking at and checking out their

Austin From... You Know Where (36:29)
So there's one player that stands out to me that maybe you would know but the listeners wouldn't know that I think could have a big game And then obviously I'll state the obvious one first JSN You know can he take over here or will he be a focal point to take away from the Patriots? Because you know you can't leave him unchecked but on the Patriots side, you know ⁓ You know one look ahead bet. I'm not gonna give you guys too much I'm gonna come with at least five six maybe up to ten props next week But there's a guy that I've really liked on the Patriots who you know, he doesn't necessarily show up every game

But I feel like he shows up in the big moments and that's ⁓ Booty. I'm just, I gotta pull up his first name.

What's his name? Can you remember his first name? But I seen, ⁓ you know, Keaton Booty? Is that it?

Kyle Blondin (37:07)
Yes.

Austin From... You Know Where (37:12)
Yeah, well anyways for three receptions in the Super Bowl, he has a lineup plus 112 and I think he gets at least three if not four or five catches. He had a big game last week and I think he comes through again in the Super Bowl. Yeah, sorry for that pronunciation on my part. But I think that's one to look at. Potentially him having a good game because his lines are all kind of low.

Kyle Blondin (37:30)
K Sean booty, K Sean booty. You disrespect the booty.

Austin From... You Know Where (37:44)
Yeah, that's my thoughts. That's a look ahead. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (37:46)
That's a look ahead, okay? And then

the MVP odds, Sammy Darnold's plus 115, Drake May's plus 230, Jackson Smith and Jig was plus 550. Now here's the value I think that there is in this bled. Kenneth Walker, plus 800, Seahawks. He's the main guy, whether it be rushing, passes out of the backfield. Like he is just as, odds are that he's gonna have a dominant MVP like game like anybody else.

Austin From... You Know Where (38:02)
Yeah.

Yeah, I love that one. Yeah. 850, 20 bucks on it. let's yeah. I, I like that one. If you have a, if you find a free touchdown score play that is that's one to I, I, yeah.

Kyle Blondin (38:21)
Yeah, so

Yeah, so Kenneth Walker's

anytime minus 190 to score a touchdown, plus 310 to score two or more, but he's also plus 370 to score the first touchdown, which I am thinking, man, he might be that first guy, like to score that touchdown.

Austin From... You Know Where (38:42)
Yeah,

I think 850 is a great value. I think I will be taking that. Obviously, I'll come back next year with the locked in picks, but good find.

Kyle Blondin (38:53)
Yeah, it's a lot there. Now I was gonna take a little quick look at some of the history, embedding history in the Super Bowl. You might surprise you. So last 15 Super Bowls, nine have been won by the underdog. Nine out of 15 Super Bowls have been won by the underdog. Hold on, where the hell is my thing here? No, I want that. Okay, so looking back, remember last year, remember the Chiefs were a point and half favorite of the Eagles. And that didn't turn out too good.

Austin From... You Know Where (39:07)
Wow, that is crazy.

That's insane.

Kyle Blondin (39:23)
So just taking a look back at some previous Super Bowls, Chiefs are 1.5 point favorites. Oh, I'm trying to get the, oh yeah. So Chiefs are 1.5 point favorites. The game was over 48.5 and it went over. So, but the Underdog won. Did you know that two years ago, the 49ers were 2 point favorites over the Chiefs? Yes, I remember that. Because it was always about my homes. You don't bet against my homes. And the game finished 25, 22 in overtime, but stayed under.

Austin From... You Know Where (39:53)
Yeah, and they had a big comeback in the fourth quarter, think, the Chiefs. Maybe not a big comeback, but I know they came back.

Kyle Blondin (39:57)
Yeah.

And then you remember Eagles chiefs. The Eagles are actually the favorite in that game, but they went up losing and the game went over. Rams, Bengals. What do think the line was that during that two ball?

Austin From... You Know Where (40:12)
I think the Rams were a heavy favorite there. Maybe four, four. Yeah, I was about to say four.

Kyle Blondin (40:14)
Four and a half points.

The game obviously covered 2320 RAMs, so the Bengals did cover.

Austin From... You Know Where (40:21)
Yeah.

That was all Joe burrow. Cincinnati had a, still had a bad defense back then even, think. I don't know if the old line was still crushed, but I remember that super bowl, ⁓ the, the Rams felt like a way more complete team. Another Matthew Stafford season, MVP season, by the way, I think.

Kyle Blondin (40:34)
And then you got chiefs.

Yeah, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and the Chiefs are three point favorites and the Buccaneers blew them out, 31-9. See the theme here, all the, we got a winner in the Rams but they couldn't cover the spread. So nobody's been covering the spread in this Super Bowl. So I mean, this is the kind of things that screw with my mind thinking, okay, New England, New England, you know, let's go pay, Pats. All right, let's get back on the bandwagon. Yeah, so a lot to think about.

Austin From... You Know Where (40:44)
Yeah. Show.

Yeah. And no one's surprised if this team wins. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (41:06)
you know to really look back at the history that it's one game one big game and you got drake may you know the thought is that the Patriots had the easy road to get into this super bowl while the Seahawks had to have offices and tough matchups 49ers Rams and do you hear the Drake may song I sent you

Austin From... You Know Where (41:24)
No, I didn't see that. You sent me a Drake May song? no, I didn't see that. What? Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (41:26)
I text you, there's a Drake May song. Drake May, Drake May, like this is actually an

actual song on Spotify, somebody put together about Drake May. encourage you to ⁓ take a listen. Okay, and I'll give you your thoughts.

Austin From... You Know Where (41:39)
All right. I ⁓

yeah. something very important on the podcast. I don't think I've, I've broken the podcast up with the weekly concrete fact. And I got an interesting one this week. Okay. ⁓ by carefully mixing lightweight aggregates like expanded clay shale, or even tiny pockets into the mix, we can create what's called lightweight concrete, ⁓ strong enough to build with yet light enough to float on water.

Kyle Blondin (41:44)
Yep.

Let's go. Let's do it.

Austin From... You Know Where (42:05)
So you can actually make concrete that actually floats on water, which you think it's like a stone, to the bottom, but by mixing in those things, you can actually build the floatable foundations.

Kyle Blondin (42:10)
down.

fact. There we go. You gonna run into these facts or

Austin From... You Know Where (42:17)
Yeah, nice one. ⁓

⁓ mean the, quality could drop. I'm not sure, but I mean, I'm sure there's, there's gotta be a couple hundred, right?

Kyle Blondin (42:26)
Do find your cement guru, do people stop Two times a day, got it. Okay, we forgot to talk about one thing before we close out is the NFL Hall of Fame was voting and Bill Belichick is not in on the, he'll probably, he'll get in next year, but they decided he deserves to wait a year. The guy's only won six Super Bowls as head coach more than anybody else.

Austin From... You Know Where (42:30)
A few times a day.

Kyle Blondin (42:54)
He's won two Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator with the New York Giants back in the day. But I guess he's not good enough. ⁓ sorry, he's got second most wins ever as a coach. He's got the number one amount of wins in playoff history, but his resume is not deserving of a first ballot Hall of Famer. What a joke. What? I mean, we're a dead horse here. I pretty much align with this, but.

Unless you're a douchebag out there and there's many douchebags online that try to just have a hot take for people to listen to them, a la Skip Bayless, that guy just loves to hear himself talk, man. He had an 11 minute rant about, I guess, justifying why Bill Belichick wasn't put There's idiots okay.

Austin From... You Know Where (43:40)
That's stupid.

Yeah. That's it's disgusting.

mean, at the end of the day, you have a conversation with any NFL fan. You're sitting at a bar, you know, you're talking, Hey, who do you think the best coaches of all time? Nine out of 10 of them are probably saying bill Belichick. And if they're not saying it, I could beat them in argument to say why he is. You know, it's not even. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (43:58)
If he's not a first ballot Hall of Famer,

there's something wrong. There's something wrong with this whole process. And all they've done right now, that committee, by not putting him in the first year, by of SpyGate and Deflategate, et cetera. ⁓ You're torpedoing your credibility as an organization and this whole thing, like the whole concept of the Hall of Fame.

Austin From... You Know Where (44:09)
Idiots.

Kyle Blondin (44:26)
is now done this to yourself.

Austin From... You Know Where (44:27)
I

think it takes away from every other person that's made it in the first ballot because it's a joke. It doesn't fucking matter. They've made it a joke, therefore how can you respect a first ballot vote anyways? It's not accurate. Not only did Bill Belichick win six Super Bowls with the Patriots, he won two Super Bowls as a coordinator, did he not? It's disgusting.

Kyle Blondin (44:37)
That's right.

It's terrible.

Yes, yes, he did.

Austin From... You Know Where (44:57)
Like I will say to play devil's advocate like the flake gate. First of all, here's why I don't think you can involve the flake gate is because if you're doing that to build Belichick because of the flake gate, you're telling me you're going to do that to Tom Brady. If you do that to Tom Brady, I don't give a shit who is in the hall of fame anymore. It doesn't matter. You know I mean? So the only argument, the devil's advocate thing that I could see is, know, near the end of Bill's career, obviously it fell off a cliff, right? And that was when Brady left and I don't think he did enough.

To try to, you know, they, the Patriots could have made an all in push for one more Superbowl, but they kind of were like, it's time to move on for Brady. Time to move on from Brady. That was the worst decision any franchise could have ever made of all time. Right. But, ⁓ you know, and bill didn't seem like bill was like, let's, I don't know. He was, it seemed like they were enthusiastic to try a new rookie quarterback at the time. And I always thought like, what the hell are they doing? You know, I don't care if they lose, you know, Tom Brady got you six Superbowls. What else does he have to do?

Kyle Blondin (45:36)
It's true, yeah.

Austin From... You Know Where (45:55)
And then Tom Brady leaves when the Patriots didn't make it a priority and he goes and wins a Superbowl with the bucks kind of saying like, Hey, bell bell chick didn't made me I'm a standout. regardless of that devil's advocate, what a joke. What a joke.

Kyle Blondin (46:09)
Is the baseball hall of fame better not having Barry Bonds and

Austin From... You Know Where (46:12)
See, I can understand

like, they did steroids, you know, that I still think that's a joke because at the end of the day, you let them play in baseball, knowing that they were on steroids and listen, you profited from it. You profited from Barry Bonds. You're going to collect that money and then shaft the dude. That's awful. That's, don't know. I hope that one day, you know, they put in Barry Bonds. He has got the home run record.

Kyle Blondin (46:32)
Yeah.

Austin From... You Know Where (46:41)
It makes no, it's a joke. You, you allowed him to play. Therefore it's your fault. Have higher standards, do more testing. That's not on you. Like, you know, back in the day, seemed like everyone was on the juice and you know, I blame the MLB for allowing it if the players got away with it at that point. So.

Kyle Blondin (46:58)
That's the problem when you give too much power to somebody who's wielding it like a reporter who's got a vote that I'll be the judge and jury. I will step up, you know, for society and ⁓ not allow them into the hall of fame because I believe it's tainted. Like that's, that's the problem you get into society. If somebody gets given too much power and they're wielding it. And sometimes there might be something you agree with and like, yeah, okay, we don't stop this person from doing this. But now that you've allowed the power, there's a chance that

and probably more of a chance that they're going to wield the power for something you don't want. that's the problem here is somebody playing judge and jury on Bill Belichick because he probably pissed them off based on his bland answers in a press conference that he would normally give. It's just dumb. It's very dumb and want to bring that up. So that's the Bill Belichick scenario here. ⁓ Any other NFL news and notes you want to bring up and talk about or are we ready to dig in and...

Get some picks ready for next week, the big Saturday show. We're locked in, man, we're gonna do this. It's gonna be a big one. It's gonna be a lengthy one. And we're gonna look under the couch. We're looking for all change, you know, because we're looking here to make a profit. So we're gonna do it. We're gonna do it. So anything else to add before we cut off today?

Austin From... You Know Where (48:16)
Nope super excited for the Super Bowl excited to come back next week with some good picks for you guys You know I'll try to get upwards to 10 props that I like something like that ⁓ I think I think we've got it all we got that concrete fact out of the way. I'm good on my end

Kyle Blondin (48:31)
And okay,

and I encourage everybody, if you have not set your Super Bowl plans yet, start getting to it because the bars, the restaurants, they all will have a strategy and will be booked up very, very fast. So get to it, don't wait. Use the Sunday, the downtime, the cold weather to work on your Super Bowl plans. And we'll catch you next Saturday, the massive Super Bowl football finale.

Austin it's the football finale this is what we've built for this is it this is our Super Bowl of podcasts so the Super Bowl of podcasts will take the place next Saturday let's rock and roll all right the ⁓ that's right I'm not doing that shit not doing no Russell Wilson anyway the pleasure's all been yours the overrated experience is over and out

Austin From... You Know Where (49:10)
Let's ride.

Ha

Awesome for Mayjacks out.