S4E24 - NFL wk15 - Sunday Bets

Its Fantasy Football playoff season and its always Betting Sunday during NFL season!

We have you complete breakdown of every game for week of the NFL!

• Looks like Old Man Rivers will be starting the the Colts 
• The Bills get the job done in New England
• Can Josh Allen or Jordan Love be value MVP betting options??? 

00:00 Introduction to NFL Week 15 and Sports Betting
02:04 Reflections on Recent Gambling Losses
07:57 Analyzing the Current NFL Season
12:50 Kansas City Chiefs: A Dynasty in Decline?
18:59 Fantasy Football Playoff Strategies
26:05 Insignificant Teams in Sports Discussion
30:08 Franchise Significance and Historical Context
33:05 Fantasy Football Memories and Experiences
33:29 NFL Week 15 Betting Analysis Begins
35:37 New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
38:05 Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals Preview
42:08 Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Showdown
48:45 LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup
52:37 Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders Preview
53:04 Eagles' Struggles and Jalen Hurts' Future
56:03 Ravens vs. Bengals: Playoff Hopes on the Line
01:00:15 Commanders vs. Giants: A Divisional Clash
01:04:53 Bears vs. Browns: A Test for Chicago
01:09:08 49ers vs. Titans: A Mismatch in the Making
01:11:02 Lions vs. Rams: A Must-Win for Detroit
01:14:04 Panthers: Surprising Division Leaders
01:17:05 Packers vs. Broncos: A Defensive Showdown
01:18:20 Green Bay's Surge and Game Predictions
01:19:17 Colts' Quarterback Dilemma
01:22:30 Cowboys vs. Vikings: A Clash of Playoff Hopes
01:24:31 Pittsburgh vs. Miami: Home Field Advantage
01:29:39 NFL MVP Race: Who's Leading?
01:35:23 Super Bowl Contenders: Current Betting Odds

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:00)
Welcome to the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin along with

Ajax Austin (00:07)
Awesome from Ajax, baby.

Kyle Blondin (00:09)
Austin from Ajax is back and we're here to talk sports betting, sports gambling, anything related to gambling, related to sports, all connected to each other. And then we will let you know that our focus here today is going to be NFL action week 15. The season is creeping along. It's almost over. I can't believe we're at this point where we're almost hitting the playoffs. Austin from Ajax, can you believe that we're this far along, far gone in the NFL season?

Ajax Austin (00:36)
It goes within a blink of an eye, know, these football seasons are really short. It's, it feels like it's been, it feels like it's been a couple of weeks to be honest.

Kyle Blondin (00:44)
Yeah, it goes

very, very fast and sometimes it feels too long because you just want to get your weekends back, your Sundays back, because you're so gravitated to sitting down watching eight hours of football action into the evening. But here are the overrated experience. You're joining us. We are an in-between square and a sharp kind of podcast. Yes, we'll use analytics and we'll use a strategy to make our plays that you're going to hear today, but we like you.

get caught up in the action the thrill and the you know sometimes chasing when we shouldn't chase so that's kind of what you're in store for here today you can follow the overrated experience at overrated eat up overrated exp er to that's overrated exp er to that's on x a k twitter you can also follow us on youtube at overrated experience could also get the pod there and you can follow us on instagram overrated experience so

Welcome everybody. Welcome back to everybody who supported the podcast week over week. We hear you, we see you, we enjoy your listening. So thank you very much. We're going to get into it. We're going to talk a few things before we get into the Sunday card. And I am going to first open up about, ⁓ there are some times where, you know, there are losses that you have on any given Sunday and we've talked about them back.

Ella, know, Stephon Diggs play with the Vikings beating the ⁓ New Orleans Saints where it just keeps you up at night. And you really think about replaying whatever situation in your head because you think it's going to change if you think about it long enough. And that occurred to me a few times from last weekend into Thursday that Philadelphia Eagles loss on Monday night. I had the play where I had a same game parlay

And again, you kids out there, same game parlays are not the way to go to make money consistently in sports gambling. But I do get caught up on the nice little promotions about profit boost and throw a few shillings on those same game parlays. Anyway, I had a ⁓ 30 % profit boost on the Eagles, ⁓ Jalen Hurts just throw just 150 yards passing, which he eventually got to. I had the game to go over 30, actually 29 and a half points, which is no problem.

But the big part and the big rub here is I had the Eagles to win outright. And the way it went down was just so ugly and frustrating to watch because they kept turning the ball over. Jalen Hurts kept throwing picks. There was a point earlier in the first half where he throws a pick. ⁓ The Eagles defense punches the ball loose. It comes back to Jalen Hurts. He fumbles again. He fumbles after recovering and but

You know, the game's still in connect, it's close. And then we get to the fourth quarter where the Eagles take the lead. the, had an opportunity, AJ Brown. I thought he missed a pass where it's an AJ Brown kind of reception he should make to kind of pull ahead of touchdown instead of a field goal. The charges march down, tie the games, Dicker like Dicker, the kicker, man, the guy had no, there was no

even thought that he was going to miss anything that night. He was hitting from everywhere. And then we get to overtime, the Chargers, they go up by three and keep in mind that Eagles defense kept this team in that game. Seven sacks on Justin Herbert, ⁓ outstanding, but they did give up a field goal in overtime. And with the NFL rules and overtime, each team gets a possession. The Eagles marched down to midfield.

a big fourth down or third down, whatever it was, big pass to Vonte Smith. You feel like the Eagles, this has got to be their game with that huge pass. And then there are like, what, on the 13-yard line or something like that, first down, first in the red zone, first down, Jalen hurts, just panics, and throws just an ugly pass up where it's tipped and.

You got two guys in the secondary making acrobatic plays to turn the ball over. Just sickening. Just sickening that Jaylen Hurts had a piss poor game and he hasn't had a great year. He comes back and makes a few big throws and then we're talking about a Super Bowl MVP. We're talking about a Super Bowl MVP potentially could have been a two time Super Bowl MVP if they had won in that first Super Bowl against Kansas City.

He looked like he was back to Jalen Hurts, you know, ⁓ first year quarterback, panicking, not calm under pressure, just ugly, disgusting. And again, I went to bed after watching what just happened, that turnover after getting my hopes up that the Eagles would score, and I couldn't go to sleep. I couldn't go to sleep because I kept replaying that fucking play in my head. And I felt if I could replay it,

I could change it. would change in my head. Of course it won't, but that's just the way a gambler looks at things. Add that in, and sorry, awesome, taking time on here, my soapbox. And then you go into Thursday night, and same idea, stupid me. I take a same game parlay, but it's as simple as the game to go over 30-something points, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to outright win against the Atlanta Falcons, who've looked like absolute garbage.

Ajax Austin (05:57)
Yeah

You

It's okay.

Kyle Blondin (06:24)
This season and the only hope that they have is a Bijon Robinson monster game and we're talking about a Thursday nighter Where the Atlanta Falcons had multiple penalties ridiculous penalties they had? They were down 14 points in the fourth quarter missing two-point conversions on their March on their March back to try to tie this ballgame and The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose I fell asleep on the couch when it was I think

Ajax Austin (06:29)
Yeah.

Yeah, wow.

Kyle Blondin (06:53)
They came within, they scored, went for a two point conversion, but the Buccaneers were still up by eight points. I passed out on the couch because, you know, it was just late and fell asleep. To wake up, groggy eye, you you're wiping your eye like, the hell's going on? I mean, I woke up just as Kirk Cousins put them in field goal position and I'm looking at, oh shit, their field goal is going to win this game. It's a 43 yard field goal. And I'm, I'm scrambling. What happened here?

Ajax Austin (07:05)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (07:23)
It was like the movie Hangover. I had to retrace my steps of like, how did we get here? How did the Buccaneers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off a loss to the New Orleans Saints again, shit the bed and choke, not even just lose, but just lose in that way, giving up like not just 14 points, but they had the advantage of the penalties on Atlanta, the missed two point conversions.

Ajax Austin (07:23)
Yeah. There's a tiger in the washroom.

Yeah.

And... No!

Kyle Blondin (07:53)
Also, was like third in like 28 like third in 28 and they can't shut it out. It's disgusting

Ajax Austin (07:56)
Don't forget Mike Evans comes back gets 11

catches and still the job doesn't get done. It's insane. Yeah Hey, yeah

Kyle Blondin (08:05)
doesn't get out like he was like Mike Evans was on fire he was like a difference maker and they can't close the door

and seal the deal so I just a bad six day like five day turnaround of disgust a disgust and like I almost canceled the podcast right there just this gambling topic sucks but that's the way gambling goes so that's my tirade that's my soapbox to kick off the podcast

Ajax Austin (08:14)
At the

Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (08:33)
Sorry Austin from Ajax, do you have anything to add? I don't know if you had any action on any of those games and felt any way like I did.

Ajax Austin (08:37)
Nope.

No, I actually did have action on those games, so I definitely feel what you were feeling there. But I just want to mention, you know, we talked about how fast the season went by. Would you also, would it also be worth mentioning that this may be the craziest football season that we've watched in a very long time?

I haven't, I've been watching football since 2015 and I think since 2015 I haven't seen like a crazier season just of teams not being where they're supposed to be and not, you know, not getting the job done. Kansas City and the Eagles both in the Super Bowl last year. If you combine the last 10 weeks or 10 games for these teams, they have what, two, three wins? It's unbelievable.

Kyle Blondin (09:21)
Yeah, like it's, and you know what? I'll throw out a bad beat. It was more on you than it was me. You had Cleveland to knock off the Tennessee Titans at home. And you know, from your perspective, I got to imagine that you thought that was a write off, like after, you know, hit in the fourth quarter, that Cleveland was out of it. It was done. And then, boy, here comes Chedur Sanders and the Cleveland Browns marching back. And how does it end? Like, awesome. Run us through how it ended, how you lost.

Ajax Austin (09:43)
Yep.

Also to put it within one touchdown for some reason the Browns go for two points instead of one and You know that forces them at the end of the game when they get the touchdown instead of getting that you know 95 % 99 % chance to win with the extra point just kick it boom you're going to overtime Nope, they go for a two-point play and it's one of the worst two-point plays I've ever seen in my life. Just a complete collapse of a play But you know, I'm not even mad at the play. I'm mad at the decision. Where was the logic to go for two?

Kyle Blondin (10:15)
GF

Ajax Austin (10:20)
⁓ on the touchdown previous unbelievable

Kyle Blondin (10:24)
Yeah, it doesn't make sense. have a

team that has, Shudder Sanders throw 300 plus yards. mean, he was her key weapon in that comeback. And then you take him out and then you have a trick play that didn't go well. And you look like complete morons. Like that's the kind of stuff where I, I, I enjoy a good review. I like a good breakdown of an NFL matchup and I am, you know, I'm not saying I don't watch these things. And I don't, I don't take information out as good, uh, info to kind of think.

Towards where I am going to make a play so you go on Instagram you watch NFL Network ESPN Everywhere where it's the breakdown a pregame where they're walking through who's gonna win and why or some you know a specific betting Podcast or whatever breaking down reasons why teams will win lose or cover spread or over under But you know take that with a grain of salt because there's never factored in

All these plays you can't predict. You can't predict somebody taking a stupid penalty. ⁓ I can't remember what game it was. ⁓ Yeah, was ⁓ Baltimore. So like we've seen that the Baltimore Ravens lost against the Steelers. And by the way, that reminded me, like, I don't know if you've seen that lively catch that was ruled no touchdown in the end zone where he had two hands on it, two steps, but for some reason you have to make a third step in the end zone.

That's fucking dumb. So they got job there, but nobody's going to remember that the end of the game there where the Steelers had the punt and they would have the ball roughly 40 yard line, 50 yard line, but some asshole on the Baltimore Ravens takes a holding penalty on the kick. How stupid you got to be that you understand that you have a limited time on the clock.

to march down the field because you need a touchdown. You just don't need a field goal. You need a touchdown. And at worst, you're to have the ball to 35, 40 yard line with over a minute to go. And how is it not common knowledge that you would probably be extra cautious to not take any penalties to move you, take any risk to move you back? Yes, you want to put yourself in a position for a potential punt return.

But the odds are there's going to be a fair catch wave and I'm going to take the ball and get it, get the ball in Lamar's hands. Those are the things that you'll forget about. You can't analyze. And these are huge factors in the, these games and in the outcomes. So yes, thank you everybody for your Instagram slash NFL network breakdown slash Vson breakdown of why you believe one team over another. But you know, it's a, you're full of shit.

because there is factors out there you cannot measure or predict that make huge, absolutely huge directional changes in football games. So that's my tie right again. I can't get off this, man. I just cannot get off this. And let's shift over to another topic I wanted to talk about. And if you watched that Kansas City game on Sunday night, ⁓ I mean, the thought was that loss to Houston was kind of like the final nail in the coffin to the Kansas City Chiefs ⁓ era.

Ajax Austin (13:31)
You

Kyle Blondin (13:49)
dynasty you might say over the last 10 years making what is it 10 straight AFC championship appearances You know, they're coming off of three Super Bowl appearances in a row ⁓ outstanding track record for this Kansas City Chiefs team, but when you watched on Sunday night ⁓ They just didn't have it. I mean you felt they were gonna pull it out one way or another it's common. It's common. It's common and they didn't have it and I but

Ajax Austin (13:59)
you

Kyle Blondin (14:18)
But the positive thing here is, I'm not gonna shit on Patrick Mahomes. Man, he had every ounce of effort trying to get, put the team on his back to try to get over the hump here and get that win. Scrambling, taking hits, and you have like the Rashid Rice of the world dropping key fourth down passes, like just through his hands. And this guy's supposed to be your big time receiver that you were waiting on his suspension to be over.

And we talked about Travis Kelsey last week and I mentioned potentially moving on and I think you were gonna, you you didn't say it, but I know we talked afterwards that you felt to bring him back. He's toast. Like he, he, he might've, he's at the stage of his career where just like Gronk, where I think he needs to say, Hey, I'm stepping back and I'm stepping back next year. I'm not going to start the season, whether it be Kansas City or anybody else. And we'll see what happens as the year goes on. He's a higher gun now.

Ajax Austin (15:15)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (15:16)
That's the stage of career he's in where he is the guy either that will be ready for Kansas City in week 14, 15 next year if they decide to make another run and they do make another run. But he's out of that stage where, yeah, we've seen him produce weeks earlier, but he's out of gas. He had huge drops. They had interception at the end where he's juggling the ball and the game's over because he can't hold onto it. That's not Travis Kelce that we know. He's toast.

He's done. So you could have a difference of opinion on that. My opinion is he's a part-time, impactful, no question, but he's done as a full-time NFL player. Austin, what do you say to that?

Ajax Austin (15:56)
Yeah. He can't,

I just, think Travis Kelsey, know, he's still.

I would say he's still better than your average tight end. Don't get me wrong. But he's getting older and you can't rely on him to be the difference maker. That's the issue. If they had, if they had another elite wide receiver and then Rashi Rice and he was their third option, I'd say that's, that's solid. That's fine. You know, but I don't like Travis Kelsey in this point in his career being the first or second option in a team. feel like he, you know, he's lost a step. You're right. He's, has too much miles on the tank. honestly resting and

and then using him as more of playoff weapon would honestly be a very sound strategy in my opinion. But I don't think he's completely washed. I just think he's old. He's on the back nine of his career. He's got what? A year or two left.

Kyle Blondin (16:47)
Yeah, and I think you make a good point is like, I think we all thought they had developed enough weapons, you Hollywood Brown, Worthy, Rashid Rice after suspension, Kelsey to kind of spin off, you know, in the tight end spot, you know, in the backfield, you got Kareem Hunt, Pacheco. But when you really look at it, this team is very bland. Like it's very, it's not.

Ajax Austin (16:56)
Hmm.

Kyle Blondin (17:15)
Like it's just not good enough. mean, if you got Patrick Mahomes, a generational quarterback, and I do not believe he's slowing down, he's going to get shit on. He's going to get that tag, at least at this point that he is on the downside, which is I think completely wrong and short-sighted by many in the NFL that look at a week to week narrative and bring it up and talk about it to death. But I think you need to provide him with a star.

superstar receiver. I know they got a lot of fast skinny guys, but they can't make it through the season without getting banged up. I mean, I don't like necessarily the situation in Philadelphia, but how well would Patrick Mahomes be with an A.J. Brown? Would that be a difference maker to you? Do you think if they had an A.J. Brown type top guy out there to throw the ball to, do you think that would be a difference maker for him?

Ajax Austin (18:10)
yeah, I think if you give Mahomes a top five wide receiver, that immediately makes Kansas City the best team in football. I have such faith in Mahomes, I think he's the best player in football. This just isn't their year this year. If they come back next year and they're very successful, I won't be surprised at all, but they've had some bad luck. And no, no doubt, if you put AJ Brown on that team, I'm making them my Super Bowl favorite. Would you agree?

Kyle Blondin (18:41)
I well if we're heading into next year with an AJ Brown ask right. Yep.

Ajax Austin (18:45)
Yeah, I'm not considering the record. You know what I mean? Like with

the record, it's like even if they win every game going forward, they still may not make the playoffs, right? So I'm more thinking just like actually best compared to getting the playoffs record going for the Super Bowl.

Kyle Blondin (18:59)
I would agree.

I would still put them near the top. There's just no question on that. But right now you're going to hear the narrative that this Chiefs team has done. I think that's short sighted. So if you have a futures play down the road for 2026-27, I would suggest keeping in mind that the Kansas City Chiefs might be a play. It might be value because of this down season. The odds are they're not going to make the playoffs. Stranger things have happened, of course. And you know, I guess if the Kansas City Chiefs somehow

make the playoffs. It's not going to silence the narrative that the kids it's fixed. It's rigged for the Kansas city chiefs. You know what I mean? So yeah, they say it's rigged from a homes, but we'll see how it plays out. What other stories, uh, Austin, I know that fantasy football has played out in a big way that most, most, all, uh, regular seasons came to an end last week. And now we're in the playoff hunt. Someone buys this guy right here. I'm going to buy.

Ajax Austin (19:34)
Yeah. Yeah, so many people say that.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (19:56)
⁓ What,

what, did your final weekend of regular fantasy football season go?

Ajax Austin (20:01)
Honestly, not great. There was a hundred dollar league where I could have won that week

And, ⁓ you know, been into the playoffs. Sadly, didn't get that done. I'll let you guys know my performance on the overall year. So, in eight fantasy football leagues, I was in eight leagues. And I finished with an all-time worst, where only two of my teams actually made it into fantasy playoffs. ⁓ So, remember guys who you're listening to advice to. Because also, this year was definitely easily my worst year. I came in ⁓ last place in two of my leagues as well.

Kyle Blondin (20:23)
my god, that's horrible, that's horrible.

Ajax Austin (20:37)
It's, I'm washed up man, I'm washed up. This is why you're carrying the show. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (20:39)
You know what's funny? Do you feel like you gotta

quit your job now to focus solely on fantasy football? Is that the idea for next year?

Ajax Austin (20:46)
I think that's the only option Yeah, I'm gonna need a I'm gonna need a raise for this podcast so I can I can focus Yeah

Kyle Blondin (20:49)
Yeah, that's smart, rational thing to do.

So yeah, I'll double your salary with what you're making now. ⁓ So

we're in the 416, which is our fantasy football. ⁓ I stole the second seed, so I get to buy, which you were expecting to have. And unbelievably, your opponent this week,

Ajax Austin (21:10)
Mm.

Kyle Blondin (21:17)
had to use Tyrod Taylor because we were, their quarterback was on a buy and they were scrambling for a quarterback to use. Tyrod Taylor goes out early with a, I think it was a concussion or whatever injury. So he was like minus one or something like that. He was minus 7.6. You lost to a team, their quarterback was in the negative numbers. How, how disgusting is that?

Ajax Austin (21:31)
9 minus 7.6. or 0.76

Okay, but we gotta...

We gotta mention that she had Brandon Aubrey who had 23 points. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (21:48)
You basically get kicker

at quarterback like numbers. That's insane. He had three plus, I know he had four field goals against Detroit on that Thursday night. Three of which were 55 or plus. That guy's hitting them like no tomorrow, man. That guy is on fire. And what else? You also ⁓ got.

Ajax Austin (21:53)
God.

Well, I do

want to mention I want to mention last week of the season I had a lot of players on by Christian McCaffrey debatably my best player second best player after Nikua He was gone. So that that's a big one McMillan and Stefan Diggs who are to my like I wouldn't say they're my best receivers, but they're key guys You know, I play matchup base week to week and then on top of that she had a JSN best player in in fantasy football and Tony Poehler going off for 28 points, so

Kyle Blondin (22:35)
What, and you know

what, because of, Tennessee Titans, Tony Pollard, when he left the Cowboys, you almost forgot about him. And then suddenly, two years later, week 14, end of regular season fantasy football, he terrorizes you. Yeah.

Ajax Austin (22:42)
Yeah.

Yeah, you know, I

saw this coming with Tony Pollard. I bought low for him in one league just because I was trying to stay out of last place in that league and I was like, you know what, maybe he blows up one or two weeks down the stretch. I'm not trusting him for consistency, but you know, he's going to be their goal line guy. If they get two touchdowns in a game, odds are he scores one of them.

But yeah, that was a hard, a hard loss. But you know what? I just got to do it the old fashioned way. Win all the way through and we'll be fine. Hopefully I'll see you again in playoffs or see you in playoffs for stealing my seat.

Kyle Blondin (23:21)
Any tips for like, you know, for example,

I'm on a bye week in the 416. Is there anything that you would suggest I should be doing with my lineup? Should I still be checking the waiver wire? Should I, what, what, what are the unwritten rules? What are the best strategies? What are the do nots? Like what would you suggest how playoff etiquette and strategy goes in fantasy football?

Ajax Austin (23:43)
Yeah.

So one big thing I think you should pay attention to, know, Saturday, or sorry, yeah, come end of the week if somebody has like a day-to-day player, ⁓ you know, they may be like, all right, it doesn't matter if this guy's on my team, I got a...

You I gotta win now. So you gotta pay attention to the drops. You know, there could be a key players drop for value that may or maybe they have a 50 % chance of playing next week, but that guy could be, you know, a key player on your team. So you wanna pay attention to that. You know, I wanna say most of it is sitting back and relaxing, but you you wanna make sure you have your depth. If you need more depth, obviously pay attention to waivers. I wanna assume you should pretty much have... ⁓

Kyle Blondin (24:03)
Yes.

Ajax Austin (24:28)
you know your team ready to go for playoffs and you're not still like picking through the waivers but you may be there i can see right now actually i heard a friend ⁓ picking up isaiah likely because they have a tight end i think that's a great option right now ⁓ but i wouldn't i would say there's too much more to do

Kyle Blondin (24:47)
The NFL is

like tricky in fantasy football to this point of the season. There's so many injuries, significant. I feel that any decent running back who's going to touch a ball on a Sunday or a wide receiver who's going to get a reception or at least a target is almost gone. And like you said, you probably got to take a risk that you're ahead of the game on information of somebody coming back that the rest of the rest of your fantasy football league is unaware of. ⁓ but, it's thin pickings right now.

Ajax Austin (24:50)
Mm-hmm.

Hmm

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (25:15)
And very important to, ⁓ I find, looking at the whole season on the waiver wire, to maybe make a pickup that may not necessarily help you in that direct week you're working on, but to build up the depth. For example, if you had, let's say, Rashid Rice, or if he was available and you knew to suspend it, you might put him in the shelf for a while to have him later. ⁓

Ajax Austin (25:34)
Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (25:42)
you know, Joe burrow, like let's say you have a quarterback and you have flexibility in your roster. If you're crammed, there's, you're not going to take on another quarterback. He's not playing. But if you have the ability to put Joe burrow for anybody who dumped them early because of that significant injury, you might have the opportunity to put them on the back shelf because you he'd be definitely valuable in last couple of weeks. ⁓ if, if when quarterbacks are running thin, so, all right. ⁓ what else here? I'm just thinking any other topics we're going to,

Ajax Austin (26:05)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (26:11)
For the listeners out there, know you might want to just get to the football plays and football picks. We're going to post the check, the timeline so that you can pick the, when to start. So I think that's pretty effective. So you can go and move past all this ⁓ BSing going on between me and Austin from Ajax. The last thing I'll talk about is something came up. I think Bill Simmons ⁓ named the Columbus Blue Jackets, the most insignificant team in sports, which for the NHL.

I look at the Columbus blue jackets as yeah, probably the, if they were gone, you wouldn't miss them type of situation. But it got me thinking about other sports. And I thought I just bend your ear on this. if I said basketball NBA, what, what team or teams would you put in that category is so insignificant. If they were gone, you wouldn't even notice as a franchise NBA. Yep.

Ajax Austin (26:54)
Yeah.

in basketball.

I don't know, maybe like the Jazz? I'm trying to think. I wasn't necessarily ready, I'm trying to think like... I feel like, like me personally, can appreciate like following like every team, you know, the more teams the merrier. ⁓ But insignificant. You know, I feel like I'd have more success naming teams in football, honestly, but the Jazz is one that comes to mind.

Kyle Blondin (27:06)
Yeah, I think...

W

So you're not

old enough to recognize, remember when the Jazz had Karl Malone and John Stockton and they faced Michael Jordan in the finals. I don't put the Jazz in that category because I remember them having a significant part to play ⁓ in the NBA. I look at teams like the Washington Wizards. Like if the Washington Wizards folded tomorrow, would you really remember that? yeah.

Ajax Austin (27:48)
See, but

then I think of like the John Wall days. I'll think of the John Wall days where it's like, at least they were an entertaining team. Maybe they were never significant, but they had their decent storylines. You know what I mean? If I'm being honest, if I'm thinking insignificant teams, baseball's coming to the top of my mind right now, you know, I'm looking at Miami Marlins who, you know, they're selling their tickets for $4 each and they got less than 10,000 fans coming to each game. Like I was actually Googling, I'm sorry, this is a little story, but I was Googling how unbelievable

Kyle Blondin (27:59)
Okay.

Yeah?

And again.

Go ahead.

Ajax Austin (28:18)
is because obviously you know the Jays they've raised their prices because you know more popularity with this recent postseason run but Miami Marlins actually has a deal where you can take four people out to the game get four hot dogs four soft drinks for $44 four tickets four hot dogs four drinks for $44 and they're still not selling out they're still not even cracking 10,000 people so I think the teams that don't have the fans coming out to support them I think that's the

Kyle Blondin (28:23)
Yes.

Ajax Austin (28:48)
⁓ the insignificant so I would really like to go and look up the the blue jackets ⁓ you know attendance but I but I gotta assume that whoever said that was probably I don't want to say taking a shot at hockey but obviously hockey is one of the lesser watch sports compared to these other big ones right so maybe that's why they were labeled that but on the scale on the scale of hockey compared to baseball you know I don't think it's fair I don't think that's fair

Kyle Blondin (28:49)
insignificance.

Right.

That's fair.

I

also look at, so you got the Washington Wizards in my mind. When you say Marlins, I see where going for that. agree, it's pathetic. And I can't help not remember, you know, they won two World Series. Like they've done it. But they've only had a real short window of making runs and the rest of it's been, as soon as they moved to the new stadium, it's just been nothing. Like you're right, they're like,

Ajax Austin (29:44)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (29:45)
If I had to buy a Miami Marlins jersey, I can't tell you who I'm going to put on the back of it. Right? It's just not... And then you look at NFL. To me, the Tennessee Titans are the team that are the most insignificant in my mind. I don't know if get another team stansil to you in the NFL.

Ajax Austin (29:49)
Yeah.

⁓ as a just a bottom-tier team

Kyle Blondin (30:03)
Well, insignificant. talk about like if

they left tomorrow, you wouldn't really think about them.

Ajax Austin (30:08)
Mean like I said, I started watching in 2015 I want to say truthfully even though you know this year You might be able to watch him because their defense with the Cleveland Browns have definitely been an all-time horrible franchise just

very insignificant as well. I don't know if you agree with the Cleveland Browns being one of the worst.

Kyle Blondin (30:23)
Wow.

Well, that's the...

Ajax Austin (30:28)
But, but I also,

the thing is too, I don't like necessarily jumping into saying this because I, you know, you're bringing up these, these olden days where, ⁓ you know, even the Miami Marlins have one, ⁓

Championships, you know, I don't know the history so I don't think it's fair for me to go and say like oh This is an insignificant franchise maybe 20 years ago They were significant, you know the Cubs the Chicago Cubs didn't win a World Series in 108 years and 108 years later. They became significant, you know so

Kyle Blondin (30:58)
Well, I think our definitions are

different because even before the Cubs won the World Series, if they came to Toronto, that would stand out to me that the Cubs are there, right? Whether, just like the Yankees, good, bad, or whatever, you gotta watch the Yankees. The Cowboys. Like the Cowboys are not necessarily, they're kind of mediocre at the moment, but the Cowboys, if you were going down to Buffalo to watch a game and you had the choice to watch Bills and Titans, Bills and Cowboys, which one would you gravitate to? Who cares about the record? Cowboys, man. Cowboys.

Ajax Austin (31:04)
Yeah, true. Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

well for me bills for me bills

for me bills even over the dollars jersey ⁓

Kyle Blondin (31:29)
Huh? No, no. If you're talking, sorry. I'm talking about if you went to

Buffalo to watch the Bills play the Titans or the Bills play the Cowboys, which game would you choose? Right. I mean, you're wearing a Cowboys jersey. see it's a, is that a Dez Bryant jersey?

Ajax Austin (31:38)
Cowboys. Cowboys.

Yes, that's Brian Jersey. ⁓ So the story behind this is my first year in fantasy football. He was kind of like my key, like my first round draft pick.

Kyle Blondin (31:47)
What's the story behind that?

Ajax Austin (31:56)
And then, you know, I made it into the playoffs with the last seed. Christmas Day happens. You actually buy me this jersey. And then the following week or the same week, I believe, you know, Dez Bryant not only scores a touchdown, but throws for a touchdown to win me my first ever championship in the first ever fantasy football league I was in, 16 man league. So I always have the significance of like Dez Bryant was the guy for me. Maybe, you know, for the Cowboys, they didn't really make the playoffs. They didn't really do much.

Kyle Blondin (32:04)
okay.

Ajax Austin (32:26)
me he won me my championship so always have a appreciation for Dez Brian in this jersey. That's the 416 two-time baby, two-time champ.

Kyle Blondin (32:30)
And wasn't that the 416?

So two time 416 champion. So I brought you in

your first foray into fantasy football. And now years later, you're talking about eight fantasy leagues that you had to worry about. Anyway.

Ajax Austin (32:39)
Yep.

Yeah, and

I was against joining too. You kind of, remember you kind of convinced me. You're like, come on man, I need one extra guy. Just fucking do it. Just fucking do it. And I'm like, all right, fine. I'll do it. And yeah, I remember, honestly, I will say those first couple of years were probably the most fun I've ever had in fantasy football, despite being in one league, which is just crazy.

Kyle Blondin (32:52)
Yeah. And lucky you now.

Yeah,

because now you're running leagues. Now it's a lot of business and money collecting and all that stuff. It's not as fun. All right. Let's move on to what the audience wants, why they've tuned in and why they tune in week over week. And that is to hear us go through our expert analysis of week 15 of the NFL card betting wise. We're going to talk about spreads and overruns. And again, I apologize. I don't necessarily have.

Ajax Austin (33:08)
Yeah, a lot of work. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (33:29)
Player props I didn't have a chance to kind of analyze the lines and bring them to the table here today But what I will say is week 14 results you really want to hear

Ajax Austin (33:38)
god, I know this is gonna be bad.

Kyle Blondin (33:40)
So from a spread perspective, 13 games last week that we went through, I was 10 for 13, so the genius over here, you were 5 for 13. Absolutely disgusting. Ugh, like, you were as good as a Cleveland Brown two-point conversion attempt right there. Awful. And then over-under, we did a lot better. I did have a little bit better of a record. I was 10 for 13 again on over-unders, while you were 9 for 13. So I believe the over-under analysis

Ajax Austin (33:49)
⁓ 10 for 13, good for you, that's amazing.

Hahaha

Wow.

Kyle Blondin (34:08)
probably something the listeners want to listen to even more than necessarily the spread. So I think we have a little bit more success there. But I want to shout out, we talked about one of the plays or call outs you made in the Miami game. What was it again? Miami.

Ajax Austin (34:13)
Yeah.

⁓

You know what I messed up I think I had Breeze Hall to score a touchdown and then I did mention Waddle or A-chain was like a good mention because I went back and watched so my two honorable mentions hit but my actual bet that I told you guys to pick did not come through with Breeze Hall.

Kyle Blondin (34:33)
You did? Okay.

Yeah,

you're on Breeze Hall and the waddle was a value play. A plus 180. Got it.

Ajax Austin (34:41)
Yeah, yeah, and

yeah, I did mention A chain also had good value, but I think at plus 100 I said don't lock that down as even a recommend. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (34:49)
Yeah, but even the waddle value play, that hit early and that was like

a plus 180. So that was a... So we'll give you a little bit of a pass.

Ajax Austin (34:58)
I'll still take it as a loss, but I mean... Hopefully you took both. You know, if you took both, you still are up. fingers crossed.

Kyle Blondin (35:03)
Yeah, ticket is lost.

Now

speaking of the Jets, that's the first game on the card here. The New York Jets, the New York football Jets, the disaster of a franchise going on the pathway to insignificance are 13 and a half point underdogs into Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars are surging. They are the division leading Jacksonville Jaguars. Can you believe we're saying that? ⁓ If we looked at a month ago and we were talking about Jacksonville, we basically focused on their inconsistency.

Ajax Austin (35:37)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (35:37)
Lack of coming through in a big game situation, but now they lead the pack in the AFC South. What were your thoughts here? again, so let me go over it again. 13 and a half, 41 and a half over under Brady Cook for the New York Jets is going to start. Undrafted quarterback Brady Cook is going to be taking the ball and running with it for the Jets.

Ajax Austin (35:47)
Yeah.

Wow.

Hmm.

So I want to say Jacksonville being this good honestly doesn't surprise me. They've always ⁓ been a team to me that's like underperforming their expectations. So I always kind of believe that they have had this in them, but I never necessarily knew if I was going to see it or not. So it's not like I would have told you this was going to happen. I would have probably told you, hey, they're probably going to shit the bed. They're probably going to disappoint you. ⁓ But the fact that they're here now, it's like, all right, yeah, this is where they're supposed to be. I'm not necessarily surprised. know, I've always thought a lot of this came down upon Trevor.

Lawrence himself honestly the personal around him I don't want to say has been elite but I want to say has always been above average so I'm happy to see this and you know Jacksonville's always had a solid defense that being said obviously a lot of uncertainty with this quarterback you know if I was creating this line I'd probably make Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite and that's still a lot don't get me wrong but I don't think the Jets have a useless

Useless defense even though they traded away key players, so I'm gonna take New York Jets plus 13 and a half this week, and I'm gonna take the over 41 and a half

Kyle Blondin (37:05)
I'll put you down for that. I'm gonna take Jacksonville and part of it. I'm gonna take the over as well, but I Do I fully yet trust Jacksonville? Probably not I'm creeping towards that. Maybe they really got something real here Maybe they're a real threat to win a playoff game potentially There's a chance anything's open to the AFC at the moment NFC seems to have more heavyweights than the wide open AFC I just can't at any point any further rely on the New York Jets in any way

Ajax Austin (37:19)
Hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (37:35)
Impossible. It's a car wreck. It's a mess their offense sucked with veterans Justin Field and Tyrod Taylor now you have an undrafted Brady cook I guess you can't get any worse, but it's just so bad in New York that I got to go with the Jacksonville Jaguars and I just I can't back the horse like the Jets to even come close. So I'm gonna live it with that We're not gonna spend too much time in that game, but we move on to another game, which ⁓ is interesting because it impacts

Ajax Austin (37:37)
Mm-hmm.

Fair enough.

Kyle Blondin (38:05)
The Jacksonville Jaguars and that's the Houston Texans that are probably the next threat now in that division are hosting the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona Cardinals, you know, they're in the loss season. They just don't have anything going right. They lose every close game that they possibly can be in. Jacobi Berset is nice little bright spot. He'll have a, that's a guy that's always going to have work in the NFL. He's going to bounce around from team to team to team. He's going to either be in a transition team that's going to a rookie quarterback.

Ajax Austin (38:07)
Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (38:34)
or he's gonna be a backup and come in for a team that has a significant injury. But Jacoby Brissette's gonna have employment in the NFL for the next few seasons absolutely for sure, based on his performance this year for sure. ⁓ The Texans, like I said, are nine and a half point favorites, 42 and a half. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out again for the Cardinals. ⁓ Houston coming off a big, actually, statement win in Kansas City. What do you think here?

Ajax Austin (38:41)
Mm-hmm.

You know, I agree with what you're saying with Berset. You know, I pretty much look at him as one of the top backup quarterbacks. You know, I wouldn't definitely call him a good quarterback. ⁓ But you know, he surprises you time to time. And you know, I think this Cardinals team could keep it by losing by seven, losing by touchdown. So you know, I'll take the points with them at nine and a half. I'm going with the points this week. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (39:24)
God.

Jeez.

Ajax Austin (39:30)
And I'll also, you know what, I really, I'm pretty confident in this over. My favorite bet so far in this slate of all the games we've been through, the two games we've been through. So give me the over 42 and a half and give me Cardinals plus nine and a half.

Kyle Blondin (39:44)
Wow

man I look at this game completely opposite the way you do the Houston Texas defense is arguably the best defense in the NFL. They are they're ugly and I mean that in a compliment way that you do not want to throw a receiver a bad pass over the middle they'll knock your lights out they'll destroy you. So I'm going to take the Houston Texans to cover I think the car we seen where when Arizona and Jacobi Berset came off a big win against Dallas.

but they walked into Seattle the following week and they got torched and the Seattle D just took over. And I think you'll see something similar here where the Houston D is not going to let them off the ground. It's just, the Houston D is such a punishing, no bullshit kind of defense. I don't think they're going to give Arizona a chance at all. So give me the points. I'll take, sorry, no, give me the points. Give me the, you know, I'll go with Houston.

Ajax Austin (40:33)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (40:39)
I like the under, I think this is going to be a bit of more of a scrappy, settle for field goals. Fair bear is going to be the guy that's going to be there. And also want to add in Houston, a shout out to Jorge de la Rosa, the working dog saloons survivor champion this year. Yes, he got it. So we're talking about a man that, you know, I asked, Hey, do you want to join the working dog? Yeah. Okay. Sure. Sure. Sure. You know, and as we journeyed through,

Ajax Austin (40:56)
Wow, he got it! What a- Wow.

Kyle Blondin (41:09)
this week to week as I got knocked off, a few others got knocked off, Jorge's hanging around, he's getting the wins and then you can see him gravitate to doing a little more research. You know, he's really looking at it really more in depth. And then by the last few weeks when it was down to three, including him, he was charting out what possible decisions these other players could make. heading to the working dog, checking out what his opposition is taking. He really put the work in.

Ajax Austin (41:22)
Yeah

Yeah

Kyle Blondin (41:38)
And then finally landed on the Houston Texans. Sorry. He landed on the Denver Broncos against Vegas last week, which was a cakewalk. Good, good, good, uh, pathway to keep the Denver Broncos hanging around this long. Well, his other two appointments had the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who lost against the saints. And then the evening game he had, uh, the other guy had the Kansas city chief. So as soon as the Texans, which we're talking about, won that game, Jorge de la Rosa was the 2025 working dog.

survivor champion. I think he picks up his money today, but shout out. Congratulations.

Ajax Austin (42:11)
Wow,

that is actually awesome. Nicer guy couldn't have won it. Congratulations, George.

Kyle Blondin (42:15)
It's a great survivor

story to say the least. All right, so we move on. Buffalo, this is a huge game. This is a big game. This is a huge game. The Buffalo, no, no, no, no, man. Come on.

Ajax Austin (42:24)
This is a huge game. Game of the Week. Game of the Week. ⁓ well here's the thing. I haven't

looked. I haven't looked at ⁓ necessarily other games. I, or at least I can't, I probably looked at them but I can't like retain a game that would stand out more than this to me. This would be my Game of the Week pretty much despite anything. I like this one more.

Kyle Blondin (42:39)
Okay, we're going to talk about Green Bay and Denver later. We're also

going to talk about Detroit and I think they got a Rams, Detroit and LA Rams.

Ajax Austin (42:48)
Yeah.

Well, there's I guess there's a reason why I want to I mean, I'll have some stuff to say about Buffalo, so.

Kyle Blondin (42:51)
Okay, fine well So

the Buffalo Bills currently hold down the second wild card position at nine and four while the New England Patriots leaders of the AFC East at 11 and two Host the Buffalo Bills in the Buffalo Bills are actually a point-and-a-half favorite heading into New England. So the Patriots really don't have respect right now. I think Everybody loves what Mike Fable's done

They love the fact that Drake May is developing as a quarterback. He's the golden child right now in New England. A lot of things going well. But do people really believe in the Patriots? Well, I don't think so. I'm not saying I don't or do, but I think the betting public still believes that they're over their heads a little bit. ⁓ And especially coming into this game, saying that the Bills coming off a big win against the Cincinnati Bengals are favorites on the road against a team they lost to ⁓ weeks earlier.

Ajax Austin (43:47)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (43:49)
I answer point and a half bills are favorite this game has an over under of point over under forty nine and a half so expect me a lot of points where you see this going.

Ajax Austin (44:01)
So I just want to say I've had this weird feeling about the Buffalo Bills. You know, obviously they're in the second wild card spot. They're not like blowing teams away or anything right now. But I actually think I like the Buffalo Bills as my Super Bowl pick for the year. If not, if not, if not, okay, I wouldn't lock in the Super Bowl, but I lock in getting to the Super Bowl. You know, I've looked at the league and it's like, there's not a lot of like shoe in teams here, but then you got Josh Allen and it's like, Hey, my homes is out of the

Kyle Blondin (44:15)
Whoa, whoa!

Ajax Austin (44:31)
battle man you're you are the best quarterback in football left I know you they don't have the greatest weapons but I you know I didn't come with any ⁓

Didn't come with any ⁓ prop picks this week or player props, but you know I like going so I'm gonna I'll give you guys my normal pick I'm gonna take the bills minus one and a half I'm gonna take the over forty eight and a half overs only baby But then I'm actually gonna do a separate bet where I think the Buffalo Bills win by more points, so ⁓

Kyle Blondin (45:03)
Sorry, the what?

Ajax Austin (45:04)
I'm gonna have to look

at... So I'm trying to look right now. Yeah, I want the bills like minus five and a half, opposed to like minus one. I don't want to get too crazy and do it, but I think they could win by double digits. So I like that alternate line. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (45:07)
you're talking about an alternative spread. Got it, I got it.

Wow.

Holy crap, man. So you really believe this line

is way off?

Ajax Austin (45:21)
yeah, I believe this line is off. I, even though, even though I'm not, the thing is the Patriots do deserve respect. I think they're better than most teams. I just think that Josh Allen is the best player in this football team. And I think he, like this, this could be like, I don't know. He needs this showing against, ⁓ you know, the team they're basically chasing here.

Kyle Blondin (45:24)
So you think this is like a gift?

Ajax Austin (45:44)
and I think they're gonna get it. So you know what, can't find the exact... I'll let you speak on what you think is gonna happen in this game and then I'll come with the line on the alternate spread. I'm just gonna search.

Kyle Blondin (45:46)
Okay.

Sure.

Well, do I necessarily believe it's going to be Bills all day? I don't know. But I do think that a point and a half, there is good value to take a team that has the best player and the guy who's going to have the ball in his hands to determine the outcome of the game more than anybody else. And that's Josh Allen. To your point, think that if they're going to take a run at this division, has to be there, has to be Sunday.

because they lose it's the Patriots wrap this division up because there'll be three games ahead of the Bills and also two wins against the Bills and it's like shut the door. I know the Bills have to chase and hold on to a wild card spot. I think the opportunity is here for Josh Allen to have a game knowing that you have to have in the back of your head that if I'm a Buffalo Bills fan and I'm Josh Allen that the Chiefs, all those Chiefs are not going to be there in the playoffs. I don't have to go to Arrowhead or Patrick Mahomes doesn't have to come to

our turf and we have to go through them because that didn't work out multiple times that we tried the window. There was earlier talk when the bills lost. Kimmer was able against Houston that the window is closing right the window the Josh Allen, Sean McDermott era is coming to an end. But do you really believe that if they get a big win on Sunday you can't you don't believe in it wide open AFC that they can't run the table and get to the Super Bowl. So I like what you're saying. I think it's believable.

Ajax Austin (46:54)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (47:19)
Would I be shocked if New England somehow gets a victory here? No, I think you believe it's going to be more of a smashing than maybe I do. But I do believe that Bills get the job done. Josh Allen regains like that respect of that MVP type of form. And he comes through in New England disappointing the fans. The Patriots fans are trying to go back to the Brady era and the Bills get the job done. And I'll go with the over as well. I think there'll be some points scored here. So I think we're on the same page. So go ahead.

Ajax Austin (47:34)
Hmm.

Yeah,

and I just want to mention the bills this is gonna be a lock pick for me. ⁓ know yeah, so I want to add it yeah, and if so if ⁓ So I looked at the spread and it's plus 200 so if the bills the lock is the bills minus five and a half as the alternate spread total and It's three to one at plus 200 so I really like that bet Not yet, but I'll probably throw like 20 on it or something like that

Kyle Blondin (47:51)
Lock! I'm gonna put a little symbol lock.

Did you put a bat on it yet?

You heard that Josh Allen's out, right? I'm just kidding. All right. Yeah. All right. Another interesting match up here. We have the LA Chargers head into Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. This is a great card this week, honestly. There's a lot of significant games. And when we get to it, there's five games in the four o'clock window. That's, you know, we're usually stuck with like two or three. So we really love this week.

Ajax Austin (48:19)
Yeah, I hope not. Alright.

Kyle Blondin (48:45)
The LA Chargers coming off a big win on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles are five and a half point dogs heading into Kansas City to take on the team we talked about the reeling probably not making the playoff Kansas City Chiefs, but the Chiefs backs are really against the wall here and they're five and a half point underdogs or sorry favorites with a 41 and a half over under. and please note that the KC Chiefs are missing three starting offensive linemen. That's not going to help. So

Where you see this going, the Chargers give up seven sacks. But Justin Herbert keeps going, but will he break down at some point? He's already got a broken hand.

Ajax Austin (49:21)
you

I know I sound like a broken record here, but I gotta keep rolling with the Kansas City Chiefs. For me, one of those teams that's way too hard to bet against. ⁓ I think they're out of the playoffs no matter what happens now, even if they win all the rest of the way. But with no pressure now, and even with these injuries, I'm gonna put my faith in my home straight up. can't bet against my homes. ⁓ If you did that any other year but this year, you'd be fucked.

Kyle Blondin (49:25)
You sound like a broken hand. Yes.

Yeah.

Ajax Austin (49:54)
So

I'm going to take Kansas City, minus five and a half. And that under over really looks low. I'm going to take over 41 and a half. No under's here, baby.

Kyle Blondin (50:04)
Well, can you remind me what the Chief's record is?

Ajax Austin (50:07)
⁓ six, seven. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (50:10)
There you go So when

you look at the wild card standings here week 15 of an NFL season you know, I'm looking at the fifth like the the teams out of the you know on the edge of the playoffs and significantly out are the Baltimore Ravens at six seven and the Kansas City Chiefs at six seven I can't believe we have these two powerhouses

Ajax Austin (50:34)
Yeah

Kyle Blondin (50:38)
dominant teams in the AFC two games out of a playoff spot now the Ravens ⁓ obviously have more of a Opportunity because they're only one game in the division behind the Steelers and I believe they still got the Steelers to go again So the Ravens are not in panic mode, but the Kansas City Chiefs are two games Well, look at this. Well, okay. Let's let's look at this for sure here, right? Okay, so you have You know, you've played 13 games right four games to go

Ajax Austin (50:48)
Mm-hmm.

Okay.

Kyle Blondin (51:06)
They have to leapfrog the Ravens, the Colts, and the Colts are real and we'll get to them later because they have a significant weird decisions quarterback that we'll talk through. The Texans, which I think are lights out with D, but I'm in, they're not, I'm not betting the mortgage on them. They may fade. ⁓ So there's a chance. So I'll in with Kansas City Chiefs, I just win. I just win. That's all I gotta do. And I think they do cover the spread here. I think the Chargers have limped through.

Ajax Austin (51:13)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (51:36)
to get these big wins. Philadelphia to me was more inept in their offense. We're gonna get to them, but their offense is piss poor. I don't get it, but let's go with the Chiefs on this one. I'm gonna put the cape. Go ahead and I'll take the over as well.

Ajax Austin (51:48)
I'm not going to take

it, but I think this week is a good bet for Kelsey to get a touchdown. But I'm not going to take it, I'm not even going look at that. That's just an honorable mention. Yeah, every week I come with a couple of those, or at least one, so that'll be my touchdown bet for the week, if you got ⁓ a boosted touchdown bet.

Kyle Blondin (51:59)
You're just putting out there for the audience. Okay.

Okay.

All right. So if I look at the next game, we have an interesting matchup. Honestly, interesting, not really because it should be one way action. And that is Kenny Pickett quarterbacking for the Las Vegas Raiders as Geno Smith is out. And they head into Philadelphia to take on the two game in a row losing or I think three, whatever they're in a bad run, the Eagles. ⁓ Okay. So three games.

Ajax Austin (52:33)
Three, three. It's three, I think.

Kyle Blondin (52:37)
⁓ three losses, disgusting. For the Super Bowl champions, 11 and a half point favorites are the Eagles at home. Normally I would say that's too much for a team that's looked like they have, but we're talking about the Raiders. The Raiders are absolute garbage. They keep firing coordinators and coaches when the real problem is just the, you might as well fold the franchise, man, because Pete Carroll is done. I don't see in any world.

Ajax Austin (52:40)
Terrible losses. Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (53:04)
where the Raiders bring back Pete Carroll to coach his team next year. And they got to revamp everything. They held on to Max Crosby. Could have been a nice trade ⁓ chip here, but they didn't. And now they are stuck with all these veterans. They could have unloaded for next year's draft, but didn't decide not to do that. ⁓ Eagles, man, they, I don't know if you watch this team. I don't know if you, do you watch them? Have you watched them last four or five games?

Ajax Austin (53:29)
Yeah, I've watched them

I'm pretty sure was Dallas that made the three touchdown comeback Which was just absolutely brutal. I watched that game. I was following this game I think I didn't necessarily watch the whole thing, but I've been on top of the Eagles You know the Eagles are the suit reigning Super Bowl champs They're definitely one of those teams that I'm always like checking the score for for sure Yeah

Kyle Blondin (53:52)
Right, but the fact that

this team is just absolutely, I've heard the word pedestrian, like on offense, it looks bad. It looks very, very bad that this team just won a Super Bowl. ⁓ They have all these weapons and it just doesn't look like ⁓ they have an offense that's been together for multiple years, which it has. So I don't know what is wrong.

Ajax Austin (54:00)
Imploding. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (54:21)
I don't know if there's something wrong with Jalen Hurts. I have faith in Jalen Hurts. mean, some idiot asked, you know, if it's time to Sarayani to remove Jalen Hurts as quarterback. You gotta be an idiot. I can't believe somebody even uttered those words in a press conference. Who has a press credential that would actually state that? Yeah, the guy's struggling. He's a Super Bowl MVP. You're not gonna get a better option with Gardner Minch. I don't know if Gardner Minch is the guy backing up, but I can't remember where he went. Anyway.

Ajax Austin (54:33)
That's crazy. Yeah.

Yeah.

That's crazy.

Solid

backup though. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (54:50)
Yeah, I don't even know if he's

the backup. know he's somewhere. was through, I can't remember. think he's in Philly, but yeah, but yeah, but what I'm saying is that there is no option other than jail and hurts. And for somebody to utter that it's ridiculous. So what do you see here? Do see the Eagles covering this big spread at home?

Ajax Austin (54:54)
He's been all over. Jacksonville Raiders, I think he's been all over the place.

I do see the Eagles covering this spread. We've talked about Vegas being the potentially the worst team in football. They do have some key weapons, but I don't think that's enough to get it done against the reigning champs. They need to win like blood. Obviously they're going to have to win. The spread's more of a question, but I'm going to take them at 11 and a half and give me the over 38 and a half. That's pretty easy too. Overs only,

Kyle Blondin (55:33)
Okay, so either we're on the same page, over is only baby. There you go. Gino out,

Kenny pick it in. Kenny, like he came in. And I'll tell you, that's a topic we didn't talk about, but a lot of gamblers were really pissed off that the Raiders hit that last second field goal down 10 against the Broncos because the spread was seven, seven and half, sorry, for most people who took that line. So it moved it to seven, screwing big bad beat for a lot of betters out there. So you heard a lot of noise online.

Ajax Austin (55:55)
man.

Kyle Blondin (56:03)
I thought it was the right play. There's nothing else they could do with once like three seconds on the clock. And it worked out for me because I needed the point to get a get an over and in game over there. So I'm okay with it. All right. We move on to the Baltimore Ravens heading into Cincinnati and taking on the Bengals. The Ravens are two and a half point favorites. The 51 and a half is the over under. The story is that the Ravens just don't look like the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson. It does not look like what we know.

Ajax Austin (56:06)
Mm-hmm.

Let's go.

Kyle Blondin (56:33)
is Lamar Jackson and the Cincinnati Bengals basically probably crippled their hopes last week losing and choking a lead in Buffalo but I gotta believe they're still gonna come out gunning and they'll still continue to ⁓ always be that mathematical hopes alive to get into the playoffs and what could have been if Joe Burrow didn't get injured again for the Bengals. T Higgins is out, he had a concussion.

Ajax Austin (56:52)
All

Kyle Blondin (57:00)
in his previous game he will not be in there and that's a significant weapon lost what's wrong with the ravens what do you think is wrong with them

Ajax Austin (57:08)
I mean They're definitely they're not sexy this year. You know, I I mean they have since the bars gone back I know the games haven't been the greatest but I'm pretty sure they have a winning record since he's been back right have they lost one or two Since he's returned two games. I Think two games. So what are they two and two or three and twos ⁓ since he's gone back You know, I'm hoping that for the Baltimore Ravens. It's just them more get it needing to get

Kyle Blondin (57:26)
I think was two, I think they lost the game against... ⁓

Remember they lost on Thanksgiving against their two losses in a row against Cincinnati. So they limped along. So when they beat their dolphins, that's when Lamar came back in week nine, they rolled through the Vikings. rolled. Well, they didn't roll. They limped along and got the wins in Minnesota, at Cleveland, at home against the Jets. They only won 23-10 against the Jets. It's not like they dominated. The Jets were still in that game for a while. They lost at home against Joe Burrow who returned to beat them.

Ajax Austin (57:39)
Back into the groove of things.

wow.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (58:06)
and then lost against the Steelers at home. So two at home losses. Now they go on the road against the team they lost to two weeks ago.

Ajax Austin (58:11)
Yeah.

I'll make my pick for this game. I'm not exactly sure.

what's going on but I want to believe that they finish it strong. I'm going to take the Baltimore Ravens two and a half but I'm going to actually take the under 51 and a half. ⁓ You know what? No. Hey, know what? Overs only. No, no. I just I remembered that for a second. It's a high over but you know what? Joe, you know Joe Burrow is going to score and I also think that Derek Henry has a monster week. You know, he hasn't had the greatest year but you know the Bengals struggle on

Kyle Blondin (58:26)
Okay.

You just said over spoo

Jeez.

Ooooo

Ajax Austin (58:49)
defense that's their biggest weakness and other than their O line but I think I think they get it done here and I think they crushed Cincinnati by 10 points so give me give me Baltimore here

Kyle Blondin (59:01)
Okay, well the Bengals, I

don't see how a franchise can't improve on their D over the last couple years. It's just absolutely horrid. Like the Cincinnati Bengals D, that's another story. But I wanna go back to the Ravens. And you look at a must-win game, they need this game to stay in the hunt for the division because after the Bengals, they will be playing, get this, they go and host the Patriots, which is not an easy one, they go to Green Bay.

the following week on a Saturday short week and Steelers to end the season off. So on the road. they, but to even get to that game in week 17 to make it mean something, they got a tough road ahead and they don't play the Bengals too well, right? The Bengals show up. So I think the Bengals.

Ajax Austin (59:32)
my god.

Steelers at home or? ⁓ my God.

Yeah. Wow.

Kyle Blondin (59:51)
Let's think of the story because every many people think that the NFL season is already pre written. Okay. And let's go with that theme. Let's go with that conspiracy. It makes sense that the Bengals get the job done. I think it's a close game. So I'll follow you as you're about to fall asleep. It like you but the fall asleep over there yawning and like rubbing your eyes like God, I thought my voice is very energetic and keep you up. Okay. Sorry.

Ajax Austin (1:00:07)
No, no, I'm good.

I ran out of coffee, what do want?

Kyle Blondin (1:00:15)
So I think the

Ravens get it done. They don't make it look easy. I'm going to say it goes over too. So let's go with the overs. Only overs, unless I change my mind. The Ravens get it done. They scrap through. And I think the Ravens will make at least a bit interesting in this division by week 17. All right. We head on to a game that we're not going to spend too much time on. The Washington commanders head into New York. Divisional matchup to take on the Giants. Jackson Dart is two and a half point favorite.

⁓ this, I'll say is like, be honest with the, with the commanders, we thought that was that line last week when they walked into Washington was wrong. think we both let lean towards the Washington commanders and we significantly lean towards commanders and they got, they got hosed, they got screwed, not screwed. They got, they got smashed. They got shut out. And we talked about the footage of Zach Ritz getting his ACL knocked out on that one hit.

Ajax Austin (1:01:11)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:01:16)
And the audio, if you haven't seen it guys on Instagram, Zach Ertz, tight end for the commanders who suffered a season ending ACL injury where his leg up, his knee got basically blasted and bent back. He was miked up and can see as soon gets a hit, he knows he's in trouble. He reigns calm actually, pretty calm. Yep, my knee's good. I can't get up. And then when he gets on the cart, you hear him getting emotional. He's crying. And I got to imagine what's going through his mind here is not only is this season done,

But there's a risk here that his career's over, right? With an injury like that and the way it happened. So I don't know what you, like you remind yourself, you know, these guys are fantasy football players, yes, in our minds, but they're human beings. And I'm more on the side when it comes to contracts and if they feel they can hold out and get guaranteed money or renegotiate their contract, I'm not gonna say anything. That's their job to try to maximize the payout. So I don't know what you thought about that Zach Earths injury when you seen the footage.

Ajax Austin (1:01:48)
Yeah.

Yeah,

man, you know, I heard a good quote once that, ⁓ you know, NFL players are considered like modern day gladiators. You know, these guys actually are putting their lives on the line. They're, you know, maybe not their lives in the sense of, they're going to die in the field, but they're taking hits to the head. They're losing 10, 20 years of their life. You know, this is a brutal sport and, ⁓ you know, stuff's going to happen and it's awful.

Kyle Blondin (1:02:38)
Yeah, it's just

not life-changing injuries that could happen like that. I mean, the only thing I could say is in 2025, at least there are procedures now that can pretty much take care of an ACL injury. I don't know, I'm not gonna be the guy with the knife fixing up Zach Ertz, but if this had been 20 years ago, it would have been a significant injury that would probably be lingering to his after playing career as well. All right, so commanders, I'm not gonna say too much. Jaden Daniels is out.

Ajax Austin (1:02:42)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:03:08)
Marcus Mariotis back in to start for the commanders. What do you say here? We'll go quickly through this one.

Ajax Austin (1:03:14)
Okay, I will say New York minus two and a half and give me the under. Give me the under.

Kyle Blondin (1:03:21)
46 and a half is the over under. Under.

I'll just I'll match that because I don't see any reason why we're gonna see a lot of points here and Any reason why the Giants lose this they seem to be a little more? Active and this is like the story of Dan Quinn coach of the commanders right he was on fire when he took over the Atlanta Falcons He went to a Super Bowl and then they choked away to the Patriots And he kind of faded out where the Falcons kind of went on the decline after that rise And it sure seems like the commanders after getting to the NFC championship with Jaden Daniels that nothing has gone, right?

for the commanders this year. yes, I understand that Jaden Daniels has missed significant time due to injury. And then you question that, man, he's kind of a skinny guy. Like, is he going to be injury prone going forward? It's not his fault, but that's just the reality when you look at, when you're projecting going forward as a franchise. Obviously Jaden Daniels is healthy. Like, you want to ride that train. But even the commanders, with or without Jaden Daniels, to get shut out? To get shut out by the Vikings?

Right? Like it's that's disgusting. That's that's that tells you that stuff is not going well in Washington. Anyway, Cleveland Chicago interesting matchup. Shadr Sanders had a huge victory. Sorry, huge game against the Titans in a Lute loss. I think he threw for four touchdowns or something like that. 300 plus yards and lost our seven and half point dogs in Chicago who lost against Green Bay. I don't know if you've seen how that Green Bay Chicago game ended.

Ajax Austin (1:04:23)
That's crazy.

Kyle Blondin (1:04:53)
The Bears were impressive. They were impressive. The way they were running the ball, the play calling. But there's still questions to me about Caleb Williams. ⁓ That play at the end, has, I think he struggles to think quick on his feet. Each quarterback has multiple, know, here's my main target, here's my check down, check down, check down. I don't know if he processes information as fast as a superstar quarterback needs to.

Ajax Austin (1:04:53)
Yeah, I watched that one.

Kyle Blondin (1:05:22)
because I don't understand why he chose that option to float that up in the end zone, under throwing it. There's some question marks to me about his decision making. He rolls out, you know, many times throws darts, bullets, and then he misses easy throws. But despite that, the Bears have had a great season. ⁓ Ben Johnson's absolutely the head coach they need to move this offense and just tremendous progress. But they are seven and half point favorites over the Cleveland Browns.

Who do you think is happening in this game? Silver under 38.5. Weather is probably going to be an issue here in Chicago. Give me your take on this.

Ajax Austin (1:05:57)
Mm-hmm.

Hmm. I think I'm gonna roll with the Chicago Bears at seven and a half ⁓ You know, I talked about earlier in this podcast just how the Cleveland Browns, know might may be one of the worst like franchises franchises in term of ⁓

Reality to expectation so I don't want to I don't want to my faith in them And then even though weather is concerned, you know 38 and a half. I think for sure ⁓ that goes over, you know, a Shadoor Sanders has been he honestly the last game when he rallied for that comeback He's been looking electric and then we all know the Chicago Bears are a top five top six Sort of offense. So I think that ⁓ That's a low total, you know, obviously it depends I'd keep an eye on the weather if you're gonna make that back closer to the game But those are my picks

⁓ Nope, took the bears minus, no it's okay, it's okay, I took the bears minus seven and a half and the over.

Kyle Blondin (1:06:46)
Sorry, you took Cleveland?

I'm sorry, taking, was falling soccer here too as I'm trying to, yeah.

Okay.

I can agree again. I can't say anything. I mean, yeah, the Cleveland offense exploded, lost, and it was against the Tennessee Titans. So I don't think this offense is going to be clicking as it was against the Titans, especially on the road in Chicago. I think it's going to be a grind. I think it will reach 40 points, but I think it's going to be like a 31-10 type of game in favor of the Bears.

and you know it's one of those games where the Bears win, we forget about it, we move on. So I agree with you on this one. By the way, Adunze, questionable, I know that impacts your fantasy as well. I don't have confirmation if he's in or out, but it does impact your week in fantasy football, does it not?

Ajax Austin (1:07:30)
Mm-hmm.

Yes, let me ⁓ I'm just making sure cuz I he was a do and say I drafted in five of my eight leagues I really liked him in the eighth round But let's see if this impacts my team Yeah, yep. Yep. I do I got I got him on the bench that being said I have a lot of wide receivers in this league the Kua Macmillan Stefan Diggs McLaurin ⁓ and a do and say so

Kyle Blondin (1:07:56)
Live here, folks, live.

all those guys and the one team

so

Ajax Austin (1:08:12)
Yeah, and this is the

14-man league as well, 416.

Kyle Blondin (1:08:16)
So if a doonze is healthy and there's no question mark, is he cracked the starting lineup for you?

Ajax Austin (1:08:18)
Yeah.

Honestly, I don't know. He's been, at the beginning of the year, I would have considered him my first or second best receiver, but he's been really underperforming. know, lot of goose eggs on even, ⁓ sorry, games where they're successful. So I don't know, I might sit him coming back off injury. We'll have to see how that plays out. Recap that.

Kyle Blondin (1:08:29)
Right?

Mmm, okay and plus Coming off injury weather

and you got like a guy like Stefan digs is probably gonna be in a shootout kind of game against the Bills I Gotta think so Okay, and then Just want to make sure you're gonna come on man. The guy misses the net and sock come on come on Bullshit well we move on to the four o'clock card, which is a heavy no teams on buys We're gonna have mismatch. think probably the

Ajax Austin (1:08:47)
Yeah, know what? Stefan Diggs has to be above him, right? Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:08)
You could argue maybe the biggest mismatch of the day and that's the 49ers coming off a bye week hosting. The absolute insignificant Tennessee Titans. the 49ers are 12 and a half point favorites. The overhungers 44 and a half. Is there a way that Tennessee comes through here and wins this game outright?

Ajax Austin (1:09:27)
outright no outright I don't there there's a very very small chance I don't think it's completely impossible but I yeah I don't think so give it a five give it a five percent chance they win

Kyle Blondin (1:09:34)
⁓

Okay, what about the line here? Do the four dinners cover or no cover?

Ajax Austin (1:09:47)
Alright, I'm gonna say that, you know what, I'm gonna take the Tennessee plus 12 and a half here. I know it sounds a little crazy, you know, they had a good perf- 12 and a half's a lot of points! Alright, I mean if it was 100, I can't still take the Titans, right? So... No, I guess not.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:54)
I thought you said quote unquote never again. Never again for Tennessee. Yeah.

So never again doesn't mean never again.

Okay, well

I'm gonna ride that train as well. I'll say that the Titans cover, even though I have no logic to why. I just feel that the 49ers will not blow them out. And Tennessee, I don't know. I feel that they'll hang around.

Ajax Austin (1:10:19)
Yeah. And you know what?

I think this is the first one of the podcast for me, but give me the under.

Kyle Blondin (1:10:27)
Whoa, whoa. I'm go over. Screw it.

All right, not gonna spend too much time on that one. We're gonna go move on to a bit of a heavyweight tilt here. In the NFC, we got the Detroit Lions heading into SoFi to take on the Los Angeles Rams. What a matchup. Get your popcorn ready. Dan Campbell heading into SoFi to take Sean McVay and the Rams. Now from a playoff perspective, let's go back and just make sure we're on the same page of exactly how things stand for the Lions. The Lions are out looking in. So they are one game out, eight and five. The Bears are nine and four.

The 49ers are 9-4. This is really a bad situation for the Detroit Lions. They head into the LA Rams, arguably the top team in the NFL right now, against teams that they've got to chase that are, you know, the 49ers are playing the Titans and the Bears are playing the Browns. ⁓ This is a must-win for the Detroit Lions. They've got to walk into SoFi here and beat the Rams. Can they do it?

Ajax Austin (1:11:12)
Mmm.

Yeah.

Yeah, you know what? I I like the lions winning straight up on this game if I'm being honest with you

Kyle Blondin (1:11:32)
Whoa!

Ajax Austin (1:11:32)
And

you know what this this is right there with game of the week, you know Don't forget guys these teams quarterback swapped and that's why they have their respected QB's now But no, I think you know, I think that this is a 50-50 game and I think the line is very off You know the the Lions can be any given week. They can become the best team in football so I'm obviously taking the plus five and a half, you know looking at this is a 50-50 game and

Kyle Blondin (1:11:56)
Right.

Ajax Austin (1:12:03)
I will take I'm gonna take the under 54 and a half just seems so much. I know

Kyle Blondin (1:12:07)
Whoa! So you're

spouting out the whole podcast. What was the saying you say? What'd you say? Only overs? Yeah, but you're two in a row now. Like this, you never bet the Titans again. ⁓ man, this is gonna be Austin the hypocrite from Ajax. From going out. So you like the Lions. I'm gonna ride it too, man. Like I know we've been agreeing a lot the last few of them, but I think like, this is stupid, but I...

Ajax Austin (1:12:13)
⁓ yeah. Hey, I took the under on the last one too though, so.

⁓ man.

Kyle Blondin (1:12:35)
The Lions are a very likable team. The Lions and Dan Campbell, you want to see them succeed, in my opinion. ⁓ Give me the Lions, five and a half. They're playing indoors. You got Jameer Gibbs, ⁓ which he's probably the most lightning type player out there right now. Explosive. Jarek Goff coming back, obviously spurned by the Rams. But you do have that MVP favorite on the other side, and that is Matthew Stafford.

Ajax Austin (1:13:04)
Hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:13:04)
He's

also wants to put the boots to the lions who, uh, uh, he's, I'll then we'll circle back after most. We'll check it again because Drake may was the favorite. He had a bye week and staff had a big game against the coal Cardinals. I haven't checked it to see if he moved up in the fan duel, uh, MVP candidate rankings there, but we'll see, uh, 54 and a half. You like the under, I'm to take the over because that's how I roll. And that's why it's called the overrated experience. Uh, so interesting stuff there. Big game.

Ajax Austin (1:13:08)
Is he the favorite? Okay, okay.

Kyle Blondin (1:13:34)
We'll see how it plays out. All right. Let's see if the, ⁓ damn it. All right. I can't believe the Carolina Panthers are division leaders. Like that I just cannot believe that the division leaders of the NFC South are the seven and six Carolina Panthers. I don't get it. So we talked about some of the unpredictability.

Ajax Austin (1:13:46)
Hahaha!

Haha

Kyle Blondin (1:14:04)
Did you see this coming? Would you would have sat here at the start of the season said, yeah, there's good value on the Panthers to really own this division, but they are there in the driver's Bullshit. That's bullshit.

Ajax Austin (1:14:12)
Come on, I'm the biggest Panthers guy you know, baby. No, I'm just kidding, I'm

kidding. No, definitely didn't see this coming, but you know, against the Saints only being a two and a half favorite honestly seems like really great value to me. You know, I'm not saying the Panthers are a legit team, but against the New Orleans Saints they might as well be. And then give me the over 40 and a half.

Kyle Blondin (1:14:38)
Yeah, man, again, we're on the same page here that I don't have full confidence in the Carolina Panthers. I'm still not sold that they're real. They might be real to win this division, but I'm not sold enough where I think there's value here. A division leader heading into New Orleans against a team like the Saints should easily win, but I don't think it's going to be an easy walk for the Carolina Panthers.

Ajax Austin (1:14:42)
Yep.

Kyle Blondin (1:15:07)
I'm just looking back at their schedule and I'm trying to remember. The Carolina Panthers beat the Los Angeles Rams at home in a wild one last week. Lose against the 49ers on the road. They looked horrible. The Panthers did. They beat the Falcons a week earlier and they lost against the Saints at home. Right? 17-7 like a few weeks back. Yeah, you did. You did. You did. You had a little more faith.

Ajax Austin (1:15:16)
That's crazy.

yeah yeah and i called that one i remember is that the one i called yeah so i just think now i

don't know i got i got a feeling now they wouldn't buy a touchdown here

Kyle Blondin (1:15:40)
Okay.

Ajax Austin (1:15:40)
But

we'll see what happens. You know, the Panthers, for me, I don't know, they're just such a hard team to predict. They're one of the reasons why I said it's one of the craziest seasons ⁓ in football in the last 10 years. Who the hell saw this coming? You know, who would have thought, yeah, this team is performing better, ⁓ performing better than the Chiefs this year. It's unbelievable. Better than the Chiefs, better than the Ravens. What is going on?

Kyle Blondin (1:16:08)
Yeah. And the team to me that absolutely has gotten lucky with the way the schedules played out are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because they have the Carolina Panthers next week at home against the Panthers. The Carolina Panthers didn't have to play the Seahawks. Okay. So that's, that's the shot that the Panthers may, that's a tough one for the Panthers to win despite being at home. And then they got ahead to Tampa in week 17.

So that game might be a factor. So Tampa Bay has nine lives after pissing away a game against New Orleans the week previous, losing on Thursday night, choking a 14 point lead against the Falcons. But somehow the Buccaneers are still very much alive for this division. So we'll see how it plays out. So we both like Carolina as a value play. We both like the over. I do think there's going to be points scored in this game for sure.

And then we go into the game of the day. In some people's mind, we have the Green Bay Packers heading into Denver. The AFC West division leading Denver Broncos are two and a half point underdogs at home against the surgeon Green Bay Packers. This is a, this is a heavyweight matchup. Uh, the Broncos get the job done. I I would say that that paints the picture of how this team operates. Their offense is very, it's okay. It gets the job done.

Their defense stands out obviously, but ⁓ what do think of them as dogs at home against the Packers?

Ajax Austin (1:17:40)
You know what I you know, they say the great saying is that defense wins games right and I'm not saying I Guess green base got an amazing defense, too. But you know, I got a feeling being at home Denver Broncos get it done this week ⁓ Two great defenses, honestly this week over forty two and a half maybe too much even ⁓ So I'm gonna I'm gonna roll with

Kyle Blondin (1:18:01)
Do you go under again?

Ajax Austin (1:18:03)
⁓ yeah, I'm to go under again, man. It's it was a big streak of overs and now it's a big streak of unders is actually pretty crazy. But yeah, give me, give me Denver. I really, I that's the one I'm confident here, the over and under 42 and a half, you know, that's it should be right around there in my opinion. but those are my picks.

Kyle Blondin (1:18:07)
My God. Well, three of the last four have been under.

I'm

gonna go the other way. I think this is back and forth. I say Green Bay wins by a field goal. I think they're surging right now. There is a chance they go flat. They've done that a couple points this season where they come into a matchup, let's say against Carolina at home and lay an egg and their offense can't do anything. But I think they're in that consistent range right now where I think the offense we're seeing over the last few weeks is gonna be the offense we get. Watts in there and receivers lighting it up for Jordan Love.

They got a lot of good things going. know Josh Jacobs is questionable, but if he's in there, man, he's a difference maker. And I think that they get the job done. I'm to take you over. It's a prime time afternoon game. A lot of hype. A lot of things are going to happen. So give me ⁓ over 42 and a half. But this is game for sure. You might turn red zone off and you might focus on this game to watch. We move on to maybe the story of the NFL so far this year.

The Indianapolis Colts head into Seattle 13 and a half point dogs over under 42 and a half. The Indianapolis Colts lose Daniel Jones for the season for an Achilles issue. also earlier this season lost Anthony Richardson. He's hovering around, but he broke a bone, an orbital bone in warmup. I don't know. This guy's career is going off the rails.

This would be the opportunity where Anthony Richardson would have had to at least show what he could do, but he's not available. It's not his fault he got injured, but it just things are not going well for him. And usually a quarterback in a situation like Anthony Richardson is never going to get a sniff to get starting again, unless there's a key injury to a Daniel Jones and he wasn't there to fill the spot. Instead they have brought in

44 year old Philip Rivers who knows Shane Stike and head coach of the Colts very well knows his offense and There is a shot that Leonard sits the quarterback that came in and mopped up for Jones and Philip Rivers starts and not only starts But starts after like four or five years of not being in the NFL looks like he's 30 pounds overweight and He goes into Seattle. Maybe the worst place to play

So what are your thoughts here? First of what are your thoughts about, know, Philip Rivers just playing? Or potentially playing?

Ajax Austin (1:20:50)
Yeah,

unbelievable. you know, Philip Rivers when he did play was always a solid quarterback. I wonder if he could just be a game manager now. Obviously there wouldn't be high expectations, but you know, could he reach that Jacobi-Bressette level where he's a good backup quarterback, you know? To look at this line and see 13 and a half actually blows my mind. Just curious, does this give you any respect or do you think this has anything to do with Sam Darnold or not at all?

The filet-o-fish of football as we've discussed. Yeah. Give me that double patty filet-o-fish.

Kyle Blondin (1:21:20)
I know you love the fish of quarterbacks, which yeah, that's it's, you know, sometimes we get in the mood for

a flay of fish and you know, put the big Mac on the back burner, but I don't know, man. They, think the, ⁓ lion is based on the history of the Seahawks team at home. You know, whether it be the saints, whether it be the Cardinals, ⁓ you know, really putting the boots to some of these unfortunate teams. And I think the betters out there are.

labeling the Colts into that category now. think they're...

Ajax Austin (1:21:53)
Yeah, they should, like I thought that the Colts would have a little

more respect than this. Like, you know, nine and a half is very different than 13 and a half. That's a lot of points. But Seattle, yeah, man.

Kyle Blondin (1:22:01)
Yeah, it is. And I think that

the fact that Jonathan Taylor has kind of been quiet as well over the last few weeks, hasn't been, you know, he was up there in the mix for MVP consideration and that's off the table. And you know, he hasn't lit it up the last couple of weeks or made a difference to where the quarterback play has fallen off. So man, I don't know, man. If they go down the road of Philip Rivers, I get the idea that you got to think outside the box. You got to have balls as a coach to have the risk.

Ajax Austin (1:22:11)
Yeah. Unbelievable.

Kyle Blondin (1:22:30)
because if it pays off, you're a genius. But if it doesn't pay off, it's an embarrassment. You look like such a fool and it could damage your credibility going forward. So I respect the thought that I'm going to think of any way to put myself in the best position to win a football game. But I don't believe in Riley Leonard, the guy that's been there with this team on the bench. And I'm going right to a 44 year old quarterback. I think he's going to probably

Ajax Austin (1:22:32)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:22:58)
be on the bench backing up this week and then called in if it gets ugly, right? But I think the Seahawks don't cover. I'm gonna have faith. I like your faith in the Colts. I'm going to go with the Colts. I think this goes over 42 and a half. I think Enjigba gets his yards like he normally does. But there might be some points here. What do you think?

Ajax Austin (1:23:04)
Mm-hmm.

Mmm.

Mm.

⁓ I'm gonna ride it with you. I'm gonna go with the Colts plus 13 and a half ⁓ and the Over.

Kyle Blondin (1:23:28)
All right. And I'll tell you right now, I know you don't remember Philip Rivers maybe like I do ⁓ because you know, I'm older that Philip Rivers already had a reputation that he barely throw the ball. It looked like he shot putter, right? So four or five years later, I don't know what he has left and against that Seattle D two. Wow.

Ajax Austin (1:23:40)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah, but he was always

a solid game manager, right? Like he was with what, the Chargers? Was he with the Chargers?

Kyle Blondin (1:23:51)
He,

bulk of his career was with the Chargers. He ended the last couple seasons with the Colts.

So that's an interesting one. Keep an eye out for the news on Philip Rivers.

Ajax Austin (1:23:59)
Very interesting play. That's definitely

gotta be one of the most interesting stories of the year. 100%.

Kyle Blondin (1:24:05)
100 %

and then we get into a pretty decent matchup here. got Minnesota which I thought would be ⁓ a Kind of a garbage matchup, but they come off a big win against the commanders the Cowboys losing and really crippling their hopes at a playoff matchup our playoff position They get CD lamb back. It looks like he's gonna play after being concussed. I don't did you see him get concussed against

Ajax Austin (1:24:29)
I didn't

see it. heard about it. Didn't ⁓ I knew he was a question mark

Kyle Blondin (1:24:35)
Yeah, he had one of those moments though where he his fingers were going, you know, in the weird that we got cussed. So it's hard to believe. I guess luckily played on a Thursday, but he's going to be back. How much is he going to participate or contribute? Well, CD lambs in a lineup. He's a go to guy. Obviously the Dallas Cowboys currently sits six, six and one, ⁓ three games out of a, well, I guess two and a half games out of a playoff spot and unlikely to be in the mix at season's end while the Minnesota Vikings are

Ajax Austin (1:24:39)
yeah. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:25:05)
Basically one game away from the E beside their team name eliminated What do you think in this matchup the Cowboys are six and a half point favorites? 47 and half is the over-under ⁓ What say you on how this is going to turn out?

Ajax Austin (1:25:19)
One thing that was really interesting to me in that last game was when they won, Justin Jefferson really got no usage, you know? Which is kind of a big surprise. That being said, I got a feeling... I'm wearing a cowboy jersey though. But I got a feeling, I'm not necessarily saying that they win, but I think I want to roll with the plus 6.5 for the Minnesota Vikings. And I also want to roll with the under for the game. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (1:25:35)
Yeah, you are.

Ajax Austin (1:25:49)
Those are my picks. ⁓ know, Minnesota still got a solid defense. You know, I believe that the quarterback plays their issue with McCarthy this year. But you know, maybe they get a little momentum from last week's win, keep it at least competitive. And I think 47 and a half is a lot of points to score.

Kyle Blondin (1:25:49)
Ooh.

It is okay, so you like Minnesota. All right, well let's see. I'm take the Cowboys. I think they light up the Minnesota Vikings. I think it was a blip on the radar of what we seen last week and that went over the commanders. You like the under, I'll take the over. I can't go into a Cowboys game thinking they're not gonna score points. Their D is not that great, it's been better. But it's J.J. McCarthy, I don't know, he looked good last week I guess, but then

Ajax Austin (1:26:08)
Yes.

Kyle Blondin (1:26:36)
I don't think it's going to keep up. But we move on. Monday night Minnesota heads into my missus up. Is that the Sunday night of the Minnesota Dallas game?

Ajax Austin (1:26:45)
not certain uh...

minnesota sir i didn't have a ready here no that was uh... you know what the sunday night around the monday nighter of miami versus pittsburgh steelers we we just in minnesota cowboys

Kyle Blondin (1:26:58)
Okay.

I'm looking at a potential handball in the box. That's a handball! They better call that! I need a goal! That's a handball!

Ajax Austin (1:27:06)
Hahaha!

I guess I'll give you guys my thoughts ⁓ right now. know, I think Pittsburgh, I always say it every single week, different team at home than they are on the road. Minus three is not a lot of points. Miami is kind of a shell of what they were a couple years ago. They were never really good against competitive teams. ⁓ Regardless, they always have that star power and a chain of waddle. But I think minus three is too low.

Kyle Blondin (1:27:12)
Yeah, go ahead, because I'm caught up in Italian soccer,

Ajax Austin (1:27:40)
Give me Pittsburgh at home minus three and give me the over 41 and a half although I think it's close to that number

Kyle Blondin (1:27:48)
Alright, are you aware

that TJ Watt is out?

Ajax Austin (1:27:52)
I wasn't aware of that and that makes more sense with the line. But you know what, I'll still, he's an impactful guy, don't get me wrong. And the line, I'm less enthusiastic to take this now, but I'll still ⁓ roll with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Kyle Blondin (1:28:06)
Okay, and then TJ Watts out, had a lung infar- I think a collapsed lung, so he's out. ⁓

Ajax Austin (1:28:09)
Yeah. Yeah. And you know what? Did I take,

did I say the under? I'm definitely with TJ Watt out. Okay. Yeah. With TJ Watt out, I'm definitely going over. That's a, that's a big difference that to me, that's an extra touchdown from Miami.

Kyle Blondin (1:28:14)
You said over, I think.

I mean the Dolphins are technically hanging around there six and seven six seven and it's funny how you look at the Dolphins as all can they make a run to the playoffs but they the same record as the Ravens and Chiefs where the chiefs are like other done right there you're like it's it's a strange way of looking at how each team is sitting right now outside the playoff window but the Dolphins I think I think there's something about this team that's

Ajax Austin (1:28:28)
Wow, lot of 6'7 teams.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:28:53)
They're on fire right now. I'm gonna say the Dolphins cover.

Ajax Austin (1:28:55)
Yeah, just I have a random. Yeah,

I have a random question for you. All right, if if you could take the Dolphins, the Chiefs or the Ravens, one of those teams to make the playoffs at even money, would you take it or no?

Kyle Blondin (1:28:59)
Yes.

I would take the Ravens cause they have a better more. They have the.

Ajax Austin (1:29:13)
Yeah, so you would take the

bet. I'm saying that only one of those teams would have had to get there and you make your money. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I would say the Ravens are the best bet. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:29:18)
I would say the Ravens. The Ravens for sure. remember, they have the division. They have

more control of their destiny. Do you think so?

Ajax Austin (1:29:26)
Yeah.

Yeah, and then obviously the bucks, because of that same reason, even though they've been struggling also have a great chance. But no, I agree. I agree.

Kyle Blondin (1:29:33)
That's right.

They have more control of their final destination.

Ajax Austin (1:29:39)
And I'll say this, their performance this year, although they should have won a couple games recently, their performance this year is excusable just because Lamar did miss like a third of the season or roughly half of the season, whatever it was. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (1:29:50)
Right.

Okay. So let's look at where we're at now on the awards front. We wanted to talk about who is the leading odds on NFL MVP. So let's go there. Hold on, on a second here. Awards. And we got Matthew Stafford back at number one at minus 180. Drake may behind a plus 210 and he didn't even, didn't even play last week, but, but.

Ajax Austin (1:30:09)
⁓

Kyle Blondin (1:30:16)
I mean, this could flip based on if the Patriots get the job done against the Bills and Matthew Stafford has a bland game against the Lions. So this probably is the make or break of the NFL MVP this weekend. Would you agree?

Ajax Austin (1:30:29)
I completely agree, but I also think, ⁓ I think after this week Stafford runs away with it and he's no longer plus money. You know, we've been all over Stafford all year. I think Buffalo is going to beat the Patriots. So I think, ⁓ I mean, he's already got leapfrogged, but I think Stafford, ⁓ even though I, you know, I think they're going to lose too, but I think that's a...

Kyle Blondin (1:30:47)
Right?

Ajax Austin (1:30:53)
Wait, Stafford? ⁓ man, always get Stafford. I get Stafford and golf mixed up on this podcast almost every week and now they're facing each other great. But, yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:31:01)
There you go. Well, let me ask you this though.

Let me ask you this. Jordan Love is plus 1200 right now. Is there any chance he gets into the mix here depending on how these last few weeks play out as a potential MVP? don't, I think the, I wasn't thinking about Jordan Love, but how could you not? Where this Packers team is going, if they walk into Denver and he has a game where you know or feel

Ajax Austin (1:31:25)
Mm.

Kyle Blondin (1:31:29)
that his play pushed them to a victory and then the other two don't have too much of a showing on Sunday. Does Jordan Love become a value play right now before Sunday kicks off?

Ajax Austin (1:31:42)
I mean, I could see it moving up to like a plus 600 with a great performance and a bad performance from those other guys, but I mean, I'd have to dive more into the numbers to get a for sure answer on that, but that's definitely a good, ⁓ like a really good find, I would say. Dark Horse.

Kyle Blondin (1:31:57)
and then got Josh Allen plus

$1,400. I think the ship has sailed on the MVP talk for Josh Allen or has it?

Ajax Austin (1:32:05)
I think I think it has I don't know. I just look at Stafford, you know going count like, know five or six weeks where he's got three or four touchdowns zero interceptions It's like looking back at just the regular season. It's like man I don't think these guys have come anywhere close to that, know Drake Drake may make sense because he's been like dominating the league unexpectedly and not only that but I understand that the public money would go towards there because the excitement but I really do think that Drake may and staff

are the clear guys and less like someone kind of goes supernova, you know, but love I will say loves love is not a bad one Josh Allen I don't think they'd give it to him But right now, you know, I want to stick with Stafford. I kind of don't want to look at anything else I'm so convinced he'll win and a plus 180 to be so certain of that guy winning It's like I'm telling you guys to focus on that and hammer that over even these decent value plays We can agree to disagree

Kyle Blondin (1:33:00)
Wow.

I'm not gonna disagree, but what I'll tell you is that as much as the MVP is supposed to represent the performance over a 17 game schedule, if somebody finishes strong, think that's weighted a lot heavier than if they performed earlier in the season and kind of were ⁓ insignificant as the season concludes. let's look at this. There's a chance that a Josh Allen could be in the MVP contention if

Ajax Austin (1:33:05)
Okay.

Kyle Blondin (1:33:32)
They go into new England on Sunday when they knock off the Cleveland Browns the week after they beat Philadelphia and they head into that last week and steal, steal the division from the new England Patriots. If they come back, if Josh Allen, who is looked at as a guy that's putting a team on his back and leads them to a division you thought was lost and this bill season, see the narrative I'm building here.

Ajax Austin (1:33:45)
Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:33:58)
that the bills

are written off, their window has closed, Sean McDermott needs to go, and then suddenly week 17 ends and they are division champions and everybody's hyped up like we were talking earlier that they have the pathway to the Super Bowl. That's going to be a big factor when it comes to NFL MVP voting. And maybe unfairly that a Matthew Stafford, remember he dropped out and Drake May became number one because the narrative was Drake May's rising this team up.

Ajax Austin (1:34:12)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:34:27)
in New England to a division lead, it was unexpected. But Matthew Stafford didn't slow down. Yeah, he had a piss poor game against the Carolina Panthers, but he came back strong in Arizona. But if he has a flat game against Detroit and then insignificant numbers as we move forward to the playoffs, or maybe he gets fewer reps because they're leading into the bye, they don't want to risk injury, does that hurt his chances of winning VP? There's a lot to play out here, and I think there is value.

Ajax Austin (1:34:27)
Mm-hmm.

Hmm.

Yeah. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:34:55)
on a Jordan Love and a Josh Allen. saying that we have locks here and embed it now, but don't lose the idea that this could happen. So that's my take on it. I'm very adamant about it. Yeah, so let's mark that. Let's remember this conversation when we talk about, and let's just do one more for fun. Let's see who right now with the top three teams betting are to win the Super Bowl. Who do you think's number one?

Ajax Austin (1:35:03)
Yeah. That'll be fun. That'll be fun looking back at the end for sure. Yeah.

⁓ number one, ⁓ it could be the Rams.

Kyle Blondin (1:35:26)
Could be the RAMs, because it is the RAMs. So they're plus 390. Now who do you think the next two are?

Ajax Austin (1:35:28)
yeah. Yep.

The next two. ⁓ Patriots are two or three, I bet. No, Buffalo Bills two or three?

Kyle Blondin (1:35:40)
No? Well, there's four. Buffalo Bills are four, Patriots are five. Who's the two and three?

Ajax Austin (1:35:42)
Therefore...

⁓ who... who would be two and three? I'm struggling here. Yeah, eagles! Eagles are still there? No.

Kyle Blondin (1:35:50)
NFC think of NSC the top teams in the NSC right now. Nope,

they're wait. They're even on the top six

Ajax Austin (1:35:57)
Yeah, okay, Broncos? Or sorry, that's AFC.

Kyle Blondin (1:36:01)
NFC,

think about your boy and your flay a fish.

Ajax Austin (1:36:04)
yeah

are the broncos up there we ⁓ really seattle is number two or three i would i i would have never i would have never guessed their number two

Kyle Blondin (1:36:08)
Seattle is number two a plus 750 significantly behind but they are number two.

And number three, also a plus 750, who do you think there is? Show me the love. Yeah, show me the love.

Ajax Austin (1:36:19)
It's NFC as well?

Show me the love. Chicago? Chicago?

Kyle Blondin (1:36:24)
Come on, I gave it to you.

No, show me the love. You're gonna kick yourself. Yes. Yes, Green Bay is at number three, basically tied with Seattle. So, I mean, if you're looking at value here, LA, Seattle, Green Bay, only one of them can make the Super Bowl. Right? And the bills there are plus 900. I mean, if you have a one-off road or at home,

Ajax Austin (1:36:30)
I don't- ⁓ Green Bay, Green Bay!

Wow.

Yeah.

I like that one. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:36:52)
I mean, do you really think that Josh Allen can't take that next step with the Chiefs out of the picture?

Ajax Austin (1:36:58)
Yeah, he's the best quarterback that's going be in the playoffs. Yeah. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:37:01)
Okay, well there you go. At least in the AFC, right? He's

going to be the best quarterback and the most significant impactful quarterback that will be in the playoffs. So we'll see how it plays out. Any other comments? Any other, any, what's your betting strategy this weekend? Like I know NFL starts tomorrow, but do you have any plays, any thoughts heading into NHL coverage, college basketball? ⁓ Man, I love it because we have NFL action. The college football playoff will start off next Friday.

leading into the weekend. Anything you're looking forward to other than the NFL this weekend or this week coming up.

Ajax Austin (1:37:37)
⁓ Just a small thing to mention as Blue Jays fans here, good signing for the Jays, Trevor Rogers. ⁓

added to the rotation or the relief or the bullpen I guess it would be the bullpen so that's a notable mention but all my bets and picks I pretty much gone through throughout the podcast one thing it's not even a great one but ⁓ you've told me multiple weeks to come with a fun concrete fact because ⁓ I made ⁓ yeah you told me yeah you gave me crap on the podcast for not coming with the concrete fact and this is even a great one I'll be honest I was on Google before the podcast making sure I had this

Kyle Blondin (1:37:48)
Borepain yet?

Concrete fact, that's very good.

Okay.

Ajax Austin (1:38:15)
ready. Fun fact concrete has been mixed in space before. So there you go. There you go. Yeah. Yes concrete has been mixed in space before. I don't even know the intricacies or how that happened what they did but it's been done and there's your fun fact for the week.

Kyle Blondin (1:38:19)
really? It has? Okay.

Okay, that's your

job. For next week, you've got to come back and tell us a little more why and what was the reason why it was mixed in space.

Ajax Austin (1:38:37)
Alright, sounds good. I'll have that done. Let's go.

Kyle Blondin (1:38:40)
Concrete Facts by Austin from Ajax. Okay, so as we go forward,

we want a few more concrete facts or stories about concrete each edition of the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports betting podcast. Anyway, the pleasure's all been yours for you listeners out there. Hopefully you can pass it on to your friends. Follow us on Overrated Experience on XO, Overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. That's Overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. Follow us on YouTube at Overrated Experience.

Ajax Austin (1:38:52)
Ha ha.

you

Kyle Blondin (1:39:07)
The Over 8 Experience is over and out, Austin is.

Ajax Austin (1:39:11)
Austin from Ajax is out.

Kyle Blondin (1:39:14)
All right everybody have a great weekend, good luck on your bets and we'll talk to you again next week, bye bye.