S4E22 - NFL Wk13 Sunday Bets

Austin from Ajax is back for Week 13 betting action.

We go through the entire NFL betting card giving you our winners and Over Unders.

The Overrated Experience discusses if the Chicago Bears are for real or possible frauds... 

Listen now before kick off!!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to the Overrated Experience Podcast
02:59 NFL Week 13 Preview and Thanksgiving Recap
06:10 Analyzing the Detroit Lions' Performance
08:56 Concerns About the Kansas City Chiefs
12:00 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Analysis
15:05 Chicago Bears Upset Against the Philadelphia Eagles
18:01 Fantasy Football Insights and Strategies
20:52 Week 13 Game Predictions and Betting Lines
24:05 San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns Preview
38:04 Quarterback Controversies: The Case of Mack Jones
42:11 Analyzing the Matchups: Falcons vs. Jets
46:26 Texans vs. Colts: A Battle of Quarterbacks
49:28 Vikings vs. Seahawks: Revenge Game for Darnold
57:45 Steelers vs. Bills: A Clash of Titans
01:01:01 Chargers vs. Raiders: Dysfunction in Vegas
01:04:40 Broncos vs. Commanders: Surprising Performances
01:07:09 Giants vs. Patriots: The Return of Jackson Dart

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blahn and we're joined by Austin from Ajax. Say hello.

Austin (00:08)
Thanks for having me.

Kyle Blondin (00:10)
Alright we're here, we're talking football, we're talking gambling, we're talking betting. And if you haven't joined us before, well what you're getting into right now is a square slash sharp podcast. And it's kind of in the middle of analytics and action and just downright chasing which we tend to do.

So we're going to give you our plays on the week 13 of the NFL. Look back at Thanksgiving and Black Friday. And just to let you know, going forward, obviously we're not just limited to football. We talk about all sports, but here today we're going to focus on the NFL and yeah, here we go. And you can follow us at overrated experience, overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. That's overrated E- overrated E- Oh man, overrated E-X-P-E-R-2.

Austin (01:00)
Hahaha!

Kyle Blondin (01:03)
on action action youtube you can follow at overrated experience and check out our video right now we're live streaming so right now we're live on youtube live on ⁓ as many social media platforms and we're ready to go here but before we kick it off what's going on austin for me jacks what's what's new and exciting been pretty busy huh

Austin (01:25)
Yeah, not much just working like a dog. Not too much time to follow football, but here we are.

Kyle Blondin (01:31)
What's new in the cement business? what is, let's say you're at a job, you're at a site this week, what is cement related? What is the topic of conversation? Yeah, what's the hot item? What's the hot item?

Austin (01:41)
Topic of conversation cement related.

Hot item. guess ⁓ the company that I work at, doing a lot of ⁓ drains. Other than that, yeah, like hundreds, but ⁓ not too much to ⁓ talk about there.

Kyle Blondin (01:52)
Really?

When

you say drains, do you mean? what, like, uh, cause you usually do businesses. So what would you do there?

Austin (02:04)
So yeah,

so basically we're working at a big food facility and they're just replacing all the drains that they have. So it's like 350 per building kind of thing. And yeah, it's crazy. And if you could believe it, each one of those drains is worth like something like a thousand dollars. So it's pretty insane. Yeah. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (02:16)
Holy Frick

Oh man, that's a lot of work and a lot of

things people wouldn't realize that companies have to deal with.

Austin (02:29)
Mm hmm.

Yep. Concrete fun fact concrete is the number one building material in the world.

Kyle Blondin (02:34)
that we want you to come back with a fun

concrete fun fact every time we sit down to a podcast and now I obviously notice that you have a new headset so what is that your gaming headset what tells about that

Austin (02:40)
⁓ man ⁓

Yeah, this is my gaming headset. just found out that connects to Wi-Fi, so I thought I'd give it a shot. And the voice quality sounds pretty good, so this should be the new standard for me.

Kyle Blondin (02:56)
Well, you gotta remember, I have to listen to you, so I'll be the judge for the voice quality.

Austin (02:59)
Yeah,

I guess this would be a fun story to share with the podcast. So I don't always have the best quality because I put my just my phone on speaker and that's how I do the podcast half the time. But we actually use AI to touch it up, which I find is very interesting. Touch up the voice and that's what makes it quality.

Kyle Blondin (03:17)
Yeah, it's ridiculous to look at all the tools on here. It's not just AI to touch up the voice, but I mean, if I wanted to, which I haven't done yet, is you can brush up all the... Let's say, for example, you're making noise and you're not speaking, it would get rid of that. All the mm's and ah's that we are famous for, it will get rid of that. So I'm deciding if I should include that, but at some point we've got to be human, we've got to be natural, and we've got to have errors and mistakes.

We can't be perfect all the time. So if you're looking for perfect, this is not the podcast for you. We are running a live and maybe we'll touch up the sound, but we're going to keep it clean. All right. So here we go on the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast is we look back on one of the biggest weeks in the NFL. We not only have three games on Thursday, but we also had a black Friday game. We'll kick it off and just take a look back and,

Man, I walked into that Thursday 1230 game thinking that the Lions would step up and they would, they would knock off the Packers. But you know, it didn't happen, man. The guy I was expecting Packers to come in flat because they usually have that low, but it didn't have, they rolled over this Lions defense. And really, frankly, this Lions defense is very concerning to me. They did not, Aiden Hutchinson, I didn't, I did not recognize him at all during the game. I forgot he was there.

Not a lot of pressure on Jordan Love and the Packers went up winning. ⁓ Josh Jacobs comes back and they run all over the Lions. mean, I'm, what do think of the Lions? Like, I mean, I'm really a little iffy now than I ever was before with their chances heading into, they might not even make the playoffs. It's not looking good.

Austin (05:06)
To me it's crazy that they might not even make the playoffs, but I do still think they're a legit team. You know, they're not really known for having a top defense. They're known for their ⁓ offense. I think they still make the playoffs. I'm not necessarily concerned losing to Green Bay. Green Bay is a quality team. They got a top defense. So ⁓ I'm not too concerned. You definitely would have expected them to do a lot better by now.

But there's so many teams that are underperforming this year that I'm not necessarily looking at the Lions first.

Kyle Blondin (05:40)
They're third in their division. We're going to talk about the Bears in a minute. Like that's, that's ugly, right? But so as far as the picks I made leading up to Thursday, uh, Jemera, Jemera Gibbs, combined yardage, uh, didn't get there. He's still the focal point of the offense. He's explosive. I don't feel bad about making that pick about total yards over 108 and a half at the time. didn't get there. Jerrick off under a two 38 and a half passing yards. However, genius alert.

Austin (05:44)
Yeah, holy cow.

Kyle Blondin (06:10)
Genius alert right here. I said David Montgomery would be in any time touchdown plus 135 at the time it moved up to 155 and yes they pounded him and he scored that touchdown. So genius alert right here. I want to make sure I get recognized for that. At least I got that one. Same game parlay, golf and love over 200 yards, 39 and a half. ⁓ You know again, surprise. I banked my ⁓

my position on that game to be definitely the Lions, but that didn't happen. So move on to the biggest viewed game of the afternoon. That was a Kansas City Chiefs heading into Dallas. Now what I will say is I had Dallas plus three and a half. I was all over that. I just had that feeling that Jerry's team would step up in the moment. And there's just something off on the Kansas City Chiefs right now, man. They lose by three points to the Cowboys. Man, I don't know. I still can't count them out.

I still cannot put the nail in the coffin, but the Chiefs are in trouble, man. They're 6-6. What are your thoughts on this team? What do you see? And what are you on the side of? This is just a blip, or is there real concern here?

Austin (07:24)
I mean, I think there's real concern. I'm not saying they can't come back ⁓ next year, but this year looks kind of almost like a wash for them. You know, they don't have a winning record right now. It seems to me like it's too late in the season. They're kind of need a miracle to happen. I'd have to look at their, the record, the rest of the way to ⁓ completely count them out, but I'm not hopeful of this team. And, you know, I've always given them the benefit of the doubt kind of, kind of thinking of my homes, like, like a guy like Brady that you don't want to bet against.

But, ⁓ you know, obviously this year seemed like a wash, so.

Kyle Blondin (07:57)
Man, if you, and again, I'm a Brady fan, as you know, but I'm not discounting the level of play, the career so far that Patrick Mahomes has had. I will not be the guy jumping in just to save Brady's legacy by bashing Patrick Mahomes opposite. I love the fact that there's a Patrick Mahomes out there who's absolutely lit it up, got three Super Bowls. He's one of the best of all time already, but.

The fact that this team is performing the way they are and if they finish off out of the playoffs, there is no more debate about GOAT. Right? Because Tom Brady, if he's been healthy, has never had a season where he's not led the Patriots at least to the playoffs. So ⁓ I think that's dead if the Kansas State Chiefs go on the path where they are. And Tom is the GOAT. All right. Just want to put that out there. Do you agree?

Austin (08:51)
I already thought he was the goat. mean, they're had to had record in the playoff shows that first of all, know, my home's kind of in his prime versus Tom Brady in his forties and Tom Brady still got it done. So I don't think you can even make the argument that my home's is anywhere close to Tom Brady's legacy.

Kyle Blondin (08:56)
Yeah, that's true.

Now as far as betting goes, had the over 52.5 which paid off. I also had the Dallas Cowboys which genius, genius again, Jesus alert. I don't want to forget about where I lost but ⁓ where I was also a genius was I had Patty Mahomes rushing total over 21.5 yards which he cleared. However, not such a genius on the completions. He was under 25.5 and also I thought because four straight games he threw an INT. He would throw another one, it was a good value play, he did not.

So that plus 106 did not pay off. But that's it. Cowboys are moving up. The KC Chiefs, not so much. Now we move on to the Thursday nighter. Joey Burrow. Kevin from Home Alone. That's what he looks like, right? Joey Burrow comes up and knocks off the Baltimore Ravens. The Baltimore Ravens, although limping along, were what? Five straight games winning?

I think that was the thing chasing the Steelers and they fall off big and they lose at home just you know what we saw the Ravens winning but not winning in oppressive fashion and it really appeared here they could not do anything against this Bengals defense which is absolutely horrid so that's a red red flag to me that they can walk into Baltimore and knock off the Ravens what are your thoughts here?

Austin (10:35)
Yeah, you know, I'm not necessarily surprised that the Cincinnati Bengals to Joe burrow won this game But for the defense to hold up against them is is really insane to me ⁓ But you know Joe burrow, it's kind of like it's kind of like Lamar coming back, right? It's like they could win every game the rest of the way It's the same thing with Joe burrow. This team is not the same without him. So Those are my thoughts Yeah, it's the same story

Kyle Blondin (10:57)
It's the same story. It's the same story since now. They're gonna run here. They're gonna make a run here and just missed the

playoffs. That's what's gonna happen. Every year like they get close and they always think about this is the best team not to be in the playoffs. But they do it to themselves. Joey Burrow, I walked into this game and I took Burrows passing yards over which he hit. I took Jamar chase over 92 and a half yards. He was 100 plus, which is fantastic. When he's healthy.

Austin (11:03)
It's almost like this is what they do every year.

Yeah

Kyle Blondin (11:25)
This team's motoring along, but it's just, feel like he's like glass. there's something gonna happen, but he's obviously, when he's healthy, what would you put him? Top five, top three? Like where would you put him in the rankings of quarterback in the NFL?

Austin (11:31)
Mm-hmm.

Uh, I'd still give it to my homes first, Josh Allen Lamar, and then Joey burrow. I would say, I put them, uh, like I'm, guess I'm, if I'm talking this year specifically, obviously Stafford's among all of them. I'm more talking here. Who would I want to start my team with? You know what I'm saying? Um, so Joey burrow might be fourth on that list, but I mean, if it was for one year, I'll take Stafford out of all those guys right now.

Kyle Blondin (11:47)
No, Matthew Stafford.

Okay.

Alright and the Bengals opening like you know coming into that game were plus seven even with Joey burl I cashed in on that so that that worked out I felt that line was too big the Ravens were not blowing anybody out so we got paid let's say that we got paid we can eat today let's let that that's what happened now we move on the Black Friday Bears ⁓ in the Philadelphia they were plus seven and the outright win and win comfortably

and they ran down the throats of the Eagles and the Eagles didn't look good at all. That offense, not good. like this piss poor. A.J. Brown looked good, but Jalen Hurts stagnant. I feel like it's just not explosive that you would expect from the Eagles. This is a problem. This is a big problem for the Eagles after blowing that lead against Dallas last week, coming into Black Friday just looking

Pathetic Barkley has no like is no hint of what he looked like last year at all ⁓ Just not good in Philly thoughts on Philadelphia Eagles

Austin (13:13)
Hmm.

Yeah,

this is a team I think that almost has to turn around. You know, they're so talented on every facet of the kind of the game, know, defense, offense, so many different weapons. ⁓ And you know what? I'll give it. I'm more disappointed in the loss against Dallas than I am against the Bears. You know, that was probably one of the worst comebacks, like one of the worst. What am I trying to say here? Collapses that I've seen.

in recent years of a football game. But I'm not necessarily ⁓ surprised about the Bears winning. mean, this Bears team looks like they could be legit. Maybe their defense needs some work, but I think they could be considered one of the best offenses in football. ⁓ I'd like to know your thoughts on if you think the Bears are legit this year.

Kyle Blondin (14:05)
Well, that's a tough, that's a loaded question, right? So they're nine and three. I mean, they're nine and three. They've obviously taken to Ben Johnson, you had coaches, offensive scheme. Caleb Williams has looked better than before, but, but I will tell you that this is not a quarterback success story in my opinion. If I, if you watched yesterday's games, he still struggles. And then when I say he, mean, Caleb Williams,

Austin (14:08)
This

Kyle Blondin (14:34)
still struggles to make the easy pass. You know, we see the highlights of him rolling out of the pocket on the run, throwing a bullet, you know, to receivers, but he misses a lot of easy throws and that's going to come back and haunt him. They relied on the run yesterday and they smashed the Eagles just running the football. It was not a Caleb Williams like kind of win. ⁓ It was a scheme win by ⁓ Ben Johnson. And I think they are

Achieving a lot, deservedly so. They're getting turnovers. Their D has been, and I know you question their D, but their D has been pretty solid. And they shut down the Eagles offense yesterday with obviously limitations. They AJ Brown eight yesterday, but their offense, I think it's scheme oriented. It's not necessarily Caleb Williams. He's still a step behind in my opinion. ⁓ Bad decisions, bad throw, throwing off his back foot, missing easy touchdowns.

I didn't get the over I was looking for yesterday. Caleb Williams was under his passing total, which I thought he would at least get over 206 and a half yards, but they just kept smashing the run. It didn't matter because the Eagles couldn't stop him. so I, I like the Bears. They obviously have progressed. They may even win the division, which is insane when you have the Lions and Packers in that division, but they got the Packers twice coming up in three weeks. So they pay the Packers next week in the week.

They actually played twice in a three week span, which is going to make it break the season. But there's red flags to me about Caleb Williams. I'm sorry. I know he's your boy. I know you love him. I know like, like you want his autograph and all that sort of stuff, but there's something not a hundred percent right. It's going to come back and haunt him. He's going to throw picks. He's going to miss passes. Key third down, fourth down drives are going to be stalled because he can't hit an open target. ⁓ this, it, the record's great. Coaching has been fantastic.

Austin (16:06)
Wow.

haha

Kyle Blondin (16:32)
but I think they're still red flags with Kayla Wimps.

Austin (16:35)
Yeah, I, you know, I agree to you to an extent. I just think he has enough weapons on this offense, including the run game to, know, only take the, ⁓ you know, the really good chances and, ⁓ you know, it makes him look a little bit better as a quarterback, but I do agree. You know, I don't think he's great. I think he's good. So I, you know, I'll agree with what you're saying there.

Kyle Blondin (16:55)
Okay, now we move on

to week 13. I can't believe it's actually week 13. Holy shit, like I mean it's been a lightning fast season. We've gone through 13 weeks already and we're coming into the tail end of the season, which is wild. And a lot of things still need to play out. Let me ask you this before we get into this. How's your fantasy, like you have like what, seven fantasy teams? Eight fantasy teams. What's kind of the summary there?

Austin (17:17)
Eight, Yeah.

So eight, first of all, I want to mention eight is ⁓ the most Yahoo fantasy will allow you to play and without paying more to join more teams. Otherwise it would have been a nine this year. Really? Yeah. You can only join. ⁓ Yeah. Eight, eight of each league, guess, like baseball, football, you know, you can only do eight. So, or otherwise you have to pay a premium. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (17:30)
I did not know that. you serious? So you can only limit to eight?

Wow, you do?

How much is the premium?

Austin (17:43)
I think it might only be like $5.99 a month or something like that, $7.99 a month. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you could always start another account and just do it that way. But if you want to access them all from one account and make it simple for yourself, yes, you have to pay.

Kyle Blondin (17:47)
You actually have to pay beyond that? I did not have any clue, but then again, I'm not in eight fantasy leagues.

So you would have been in nine, but because of the pay structure, you stopped at eight.

Austin (18:06)
Or yeah, or because I was limited. Yeah. I just wasn't able to, I wasn't able to unless I paid.

Kyle Blondin (18:09)
Wow, man.

How are you able to keep up with these eight now?

Austin (18:15)
Yeah, you know what it would it wouldn't be like, you know doing fantasy basketball with eight teams You know, you only have to set these lines once a week. So I don't find it too hard You know, you probably have to invest 20 30 minutes a week setting your lines. I don't think that's too much to ask Usually do before the Sunday games just with you know, you have the most updated health information there So I usually wait till like an hour before kickoff half an hour before kickoff and I just set all my lines and it's as simple as that

Kyle Blondin (18:43)
Yeah, you really gotta watch, especially, you know, we think fantasy football is the, at least a little more calm compared to MLB, NBA where it's daily. NFL still has its quirks, right? You gotta make sure you check who's questionable, who's starting, who's not starting, and really take a second, maybe a last look at around 11, 12 o'clock to see who's finally in the lineup or not. Can make or break your week in NFL action, so.

Austin (18:45)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (19:10)
⁓ Any other any tips this week for fantasy football any waiver wire pickups you were surprised to pick up anybody you would suggest somebody search the waiver wire for

Austin (19:20)
⁓ you know, it might be too late now being late in the week, but, you know, CJ Stroud's coming back and in my eight leagues, he actually was a free pickup in one of them. Actually crazy enough, I think in the four one six league, the league that you run, CJ Stroud was available and you know, I might've been using Kirk Cousins last week just so to see, to see CJ Stroud available. I'm not saying he's the best option, but if he's a free, he's definitely worth the add up. If you got the spot.

Kyle Blondin (19:46)
Yeah, Kirk, cause you want to dump that you want to dump that right away. Like, uh, he's not playing like the Kirk cousins have passed and, uh, probably smart idea to look at a CJ Stroud option and gets a Colts defense. We'll get into that in a bit, which is a big game in that division. So we move on to week 13. The one that we're going to kick off, uh, looking at our picks is the LA Rams in Carolina. Take on the Panthers.

Austin (19:48)
⁓ yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (20:14)
Carolina get pasted by the, I'm gonna say, maybe that's an overly, ⁓ that's too strong of a term, but the 49ers handled the Carolina ⁓ Panthers. The offense is absolutely garbage. I'm convinced after watching that Monday nighter that, you know, they've earned their wins. Like they're six and six. But it is absolutely critical that they get turnovers from their D. Or the other team makes mistakes.

So this offense is no reason why they have six wins. Absolutely horrid. Bryce Young looks terrible. He looks absolutely terrible. So they're banking on that their D gets key turnovers at key times. And Horn, their cornerback, is out ⁓ who picked off Brock Purdy last week but got concussed. I don't have no faith. I'm going to take the Rams. 10 and 1 half. So we've got 10 and 1 half. I'll still take the Rams.

Austin (20:52)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (21:12)
And the over under is 45 and a half. I'll take the over. Why not? It's an overrated experience. I'm to go with it. What do you think of heading to this game?

Austin (21:19)
You know what? ⁓ It is a big number, but I think I'm still going to roll with 10 and a half to, know, Rams could be considered the best team in football right now. And you know, the Panthers, even though they've been kind of all over the place, you know, you're right. You know, they don't really have the talent. They're kind of seem disorganized. I think this is the year or not the year that I think this is the game where the wheels may fall off and they get crushed. So give me that and give me the over as well.

Kyle Blondin (21:45)
Now, can you make an argument at this, if the season ended today, can anybody displace Matthew Stafford as the MVP of the NFL? Can you make an incredible argument for anybody else?

Austin (21:49)
Mm-hmm.

No, I think...

No, I don't think so. think he's the clear standout, the clear option. And to be honest, I haven't looked up looked at the updating betting lines. But two weeks ago when you could have made some good money on this, even then it looked clear that he was the option. So

Kyle Blondin (22:11)
Yeah, we talked about this, right? We talked about the betting lines when Josh Allen was the number one ⁓ pick for many. Now, Matthew Stafford is minus 240. Like, I mean, remember when he was plus money?

Austin (22:18)
Yeah.

Wow, I told you guys,

yeah, I told you guys, I told you guys a couple of weeks ago, I the record hasn't been the best, but when it comes to ⁓ this one, I told you guys, get on it now, get on it now. And I'll be honest, right now you don't bet it. You've missed your opportunity, but if you've been listening the last couple of weeks and you're locked in, this looks like guaranteed money.

Kyle Blondin (22:44)
Okay, let me throw four players that are behind Matthew Stafford and you tell me, would even any of these names trigger you to reach for your wallet at all? For value, okay? Or are your hands on the table, no flinching at all? So Drake May. Okay, Dak Prescott.

Austin (22:54)
Mm-hmm. All right, let's hear it

no.

No.

Kyle Blondin (23:05)
Okay, Jonathan Taylor. No. Jonathan Taylor's opportunity was that Chiefs game and he really didn't stand out and that was it. Josh Allen.

Austin (23:11)
Yeah.

No, no, no. Yeah. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (23:15)
Okay, there's just nothing. There's nobody even,

you know, in the ballpark right now to contend for that MVP other than Matthew Safford.

Austin (23:24)
Yeah, Stafford's locked in, you know,

he had that, ⁓ don't know if the streak has continued, but he had that like three, four game streak with like four touchdowns, zero interceptions, you know, that, yeah, that doesn't, that doesn't, and you know what that happened? ⁓ and it was under the radar, you know, and that's why I was like, we have to take our chance. So, you know, hopefully you guys are locked in.

Kyle Blondin (23:32)
That's insane,

You know what I'll say

was also under the radar was the fact that Devontae Adams was a free agent. And you, if you have a Matthew Stafford and you got a, you got a quarterback that you load them up with weapons and that was absolutely a weapon to bring apart and add with Pukka Nakua. I think that's like a steel. That's absolute steel and they, they're not just adding them. They're utilizing him. He's the touchdown guy.

Austin (23:50)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (24:12)
Pukka is the yards guy and De Montes the touchdown guy. Absolute steal of free agency for the NFL.

Austin (24:12)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

You know what? I haven't thought of it much, but is there another like one, two wide receiver tandem that comes close to that duo? I don't think so.

Kyle Blondin (24:29)
Well, not, I don't think so, but you got Pickens and CD Lamb, which is also a pretty damn good duel, man. That's, that's lights out and that's only the thing keeping the Cowboys alive. It's not the D, although the D has improved over time, but that's also one too. Anybody else? Any other one too? You can think of?

Austin (24:42)
Mm-hmm.

you know, Addison's fallen off too big this year to say Jeff Jefferson Addison, know, he's Addison's looking more like a, like a second tier guy. Yeah. So you can't blame them, but if, if you're talking just pure like wide receiver talents, you know, that's up there too. Obviously Jefferson's Jefferson's carrying a lot of the workload, but, ⁓ you know, I can't, I can't really think of any other one, two right now that comes anywhere close.

Kyle Blondin (24:50)
Yeah.

But the quarterback play is absolutely horrid,

Well, as we go through the games, maybe we'll think of one, but heading into another game, we have the Arizona Cardinals heading into Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. This line opened up a three now up to minus four and a half for the Bucs and 45 and a half. It was 44 and a half. So the line moved and you know why it moved? Tell me why it moved, Austin. Come on, tell me why it moved. Why did I, no, don't ask me the question. Tell me the answer to why it moved. Come on, I'm putting you on the spot and I know you don't have an answer. Come on, come on.

Austin (25:33)
Why did the line move?

⁓

The line may have moved maybe a wide receiver and Mike Evans Mike Evans. ⁓ is Baker hurt.

Kyle Blondin (25:43)
It's your boy. Your boy. It's your boy. No, it's your boy. Who's your boy on Tampa?

my God. I know that you've been working, but Jesus Christ. So Baker Mayfield had ⁓ an injury to his left shoulder on Sunday night. He had to leave the game. The odds were, cause Teddy Bridgewater had to finish that game on Sunday night. Right. And then the idea was that Bridgewater probably start this game, but now Baker's playing.

Austin (25:53)
You ⁓

Mm-hmm.

that's right. I didn't know that, yes.

Kyle Blondin (26:12)
Blake Baker explained that's where the jump is right so it was open up as a plus minus three now minus four and half that's the Baker effect so you get the Baker the Baker effect right there the Baker's dozen right there so we got Baker Mayfield back in four and a half the Arizona Cardinals what do think here like I'm scared the Baker's not 100 % but

Austin (26:12)
Really?

I like I wouldn't be able to call myself a bucks guy if I didn't take the four and half for the bucks in this game. I know the Cardinals haven't been a pushover team this year, ⁓ but you know, the bucks have been really struggling and I think this is, you know, this is kind of like their easy win in the schedule that they have to get done. So I'm definitely rolling with them and sorry, the over and under for this game.

Kyle Blondin (26:39)
Bye.

45 and a half, it started out 44 and a half, now it's 45.

Austin (26:58)
Yeah,

I think both teams put up points. think I go with the over there as well.

Kyle Blondin (27:03)
Yeah, I think also just to just to note Bucky Irving might be back for the Buccaneers, which is huge, right? He's an explosive player. So the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need this big time. Absolutely big time. They're kind of fading. And ⁓ if they're getting their weapons back, you know, obviously Mike Evans still out, but if they get more of these weapons, they should take care of the Cardinals. So, so what'd you say the over under? What was your pick there? Okay. So let's, I'm to go with the under.

Austin (27:08)
Mm-hmm.

Yep. Yep.

I took over.

Kyle Blondin (27:33)
And but I do like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the four and a half.

Austin (27:36)
Yeah, I see the Cardinals putting up 20 as well. And then I think, you know, the Bucks put up like 27. So that's kind of my prediction on the game.

Kyle Blondin (27:44)
Okay.

All right. And then we had to another barn burner where I don't think anybody is going to watch, but the Jacksonville Jaguars had in Tennessee to take on the Jaguar. Sorry. Take on the Titans. Titans did do a backdoor cover against the Seahawks at home last week. ⁓ so it wasn't complete blowout that we thought it would be, ⁓ based on the scoreboard. The Jacksonville Jaguars coming in a little hot. They're a little hot. They get, well, they, they won in Arizona. didn't.

Austin (27:53)
Oof.

Kyle Blondin (28:11)
went easily. kind of, you know, let it, there's a questionable call at the end where the Jaguars were up three and they decided to go for like a fourth and six, like in the, in the red zone. instead of kicking the field goal and forcing the Cardinals to chase a touchdown, they, they didn't make the fourth down and really had to sweat it out to get the win. So there's a lot of questions on maybe even the coaching decisions, what Trevor Lawrence we're going to get. So.

Austin (28:29)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (28:40)
Ideally if you're still in a survivor pool this Jacksonville Jaguar team should be a consideration But this has even though I'm not gonna go with it. It has upset all over it I feel like I just don't trust the J. Do you how we how much on a scale of 1 to 10? Do you trust the Jacksonville Jaguars? 10 being like I trust them like with my life

Austin (28:44)
Yeah.

Yeah.

But

four or five, four or five. ⁓ but I mean, I do agree with you, you know, there is a little bit of upset potential here, but you know, the Tennessee Titans, it's just, hard to pull that trigger. ⁓ obviously depending on the spread, but, knowing that the Tennessee Titans might be the worst team in football.

Kyle Blondin (29:13)
That is.

Yeah, that's this is like the worst of both worlds here. I just want to make sure they got the latest spread. Yep, six and a half, forty one and a half. Yeah, six and a half. What do you think?

Austin (29:25)
Six and a half?

Yeah. This is a hard one. You know what? If six and a half, I'll roll Tennessee with you. I know it's crazy. I know this is a crazy one, but I'll do it too. I'm not... ⁓

Kyle Blondin (29:40)
Yeah, I'm gonna do it.

I can't believe I'm doing this too. I'm gonna do as well. I just don't trust the Jaguars to cover a touchdown. They fuck it up on their own. They just they find a way to fuck it up. Like they really do. So, okay, we're gonna both roll with the Tennessee Titans. Imagine we had big money on this game sitting in Vegas watching because we're Titans cover. That would be the worst. That would be the worst decision ever. Just sitting there.

Austin (29:48)
you

my god.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (30:05)
mortgage on the line because we're hoping our hopes are banked on cam ward and the tennessee titans okay all right

Austin (30:08)
Maybe maybe

after this week, we'll both become ward guys. knows? Yeah. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (30:15)
We could be a wearing k-more jerseys after Christmas there we go ⁓

What actually if you had to get a k-more jersey would you get the Titans blue or would you get the white one?

Austin (30:25)
Probably the white one because that represents more like toilet paper than actual jersey anyway, so it might as well be white. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (30:34)
all the old toilet paper reference okay all right so we have ⁓ jacks okay

so we're both on the titans which is psychotic we shouldn't be doing that but we did what about the over under 41 and a half it's ⁓ kind of low i i think the over in my opinion that's okay

Austin (30:49)
Yeah. Give me the over as well. Give me the over over

there too. Cam or cam ward goes crazy. Career game.

Kyle Blondin (30:54)
Cam Ward goes crazy. We have no faith

in the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence, okay, if the Jacksonville Jaguars cover, you need to grow your hair like Trevor Lawrence.

Austin (30:59)
Your.

I don't know about that one. I don't know if I'm commit on on air

Kyle Blondin (31:07)
Come on, come on, a little mullet, come

on, little ⁓ business in the front, party in the back, haircut, come on. Little locks, you're, you're, you're chucking cement and you know, hot day in the summer, you're just waving your like head around and come on. All right. So this, okay. I can't think of a game you would watch less than the New Orleans Saints going into Miami to take on the Dolphins. ⁓ Do you have any desire?

Austin (31:15)
Alright, if they win by 30. If they win by 30.

Kyle Blondin (31:37)
to pop this game on, get away from Red Zone, and really focus on the Saints in the Miami. Like, is there any thought that you would head into, let's say Vegas again, and ask them to put on the big TV, look, can we get that Saints game on there?

Austin (31:52)
You know, I'll say this. I'll say that I'd rather watch this one than the last game just because you know, it's too hard to predict who wins, you know, the other one the other game it's more like you cross it off your list and you're like, yep I already know how that one's gonna play out but with this one it's like, you know, it really could go either way, you know, they're not playoff teams but it could be a good game, you know, back and forth who knows, right? Or it could be both teams shitting the bed but all I'm saying is, you know, it's harder to predict and that's probably why I'd want to tune in just to see what's happening.

Kyle Blondin (31:56)
yeah, OK.

Okay, so Miami's five and a half point favorites and it's 42 and a half. What are your thoughts on as far as the line here? So what side would you take?

Austin (32:25)
Hmm.

You know what? I will say Miami

is probably the, or no, Miami is definitely the better team. You know, I always talk about how they got waddle and a chain. They still got a respectable core of talented players. ⁓ but you know, with the five and a half, I think you go with the saints. You know, I think it's closer than that, even though I think they're the better team. I think you're looking at more like a three point game that honestly could go in either team's direction. You know, I can see a lot of they have in a big game here. So give me the saints and give me that low, ⁓ that low over. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (32:46)
Hmm.

I love it's questionable. he's questionable. Kamara's out.

Kamara's out.

Austin (33:02)
Ooh, that's big. If Olavi is out, honestly that could, he's questionable. Okay. I mean, the Camaro being out is big, big as well. I'll still, I'll still roll with the Saints here. ⁓ if, if, you know, if you get that, if you haven't placed the bet yet and you see that Olavi is out, definitely don't bet it. You know, this guy's a difference maker. ⁓ but that's how, that's how I'm going with this. And that's a low, that's a low total. I like the over.

Kyle Blondin (33:05)
No, he's not out, he's questionable, don't- he's not out, but Kamara is out. Alvin Kamara is out.

Okay, so you take the over I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins I think that the Saints struggle in the red zone and they can't score touchdowns they settle for field goals, which and I think that Miami Has spurts at home where they're playing teams like they did with the bills They have the bye week after the big win against the Bills. They can put up points I think they're gonna put up points here against the Saints that have been respectable but I think they get rolled here Miami kind of

tries to make up for their lackluster season and try to put some points up and they get it done five and a half I also like the over so 42 and a half in a Miami game is way too long

All right. Here's a weird one, man. Here is one that I will be focusing on big time. And that is the San Francisco 49ers heading into Cleveland to take on the Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns were lights out defensively last week ⁓ in a victory over the Vegas Raiders. Vegas sucks balls. They're terrible. But ⁓ man, did you watch any of that Monday night against Carolina?

Austin (34:36)
So although I didn't get a chance to watch, did follow one specific guy that we've talked about on the podcast, ⁓ Miles Garrett. And I didn't realize that, and you know, my information could be wrong here, but what I read was that he was sitting at 18 sacks on the season. And you know, if he's actually sitting on 18 sacks for the season, ⁓ you know, he probably is this year's best defensive player. You know, I heard he's going for the all time record in sacks.

which is just absolutely insane. think this guy changes that defense. Just having a guy like that is like a prime Khalil Mack right now. It's crazy. And I do agree with you, this will be an interesting game. ⁓ But I don't know if just a top defense with the offense that this team has can get it done. I know the rookie also overperformed last week, their rookie quarterback. But I'd like to hear your thoughts. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (35:14)
Woo.

Austin (35:32)
being somebody who hasn't been following football as much.

Kyle Blondin (35:34)
Well, here's my thoughts on this one is that it moved down from five and a half to four and a half. So the 49ers are favorite still. However, there were a lot of red flags on that Monday night with Brock Purdy. I mean, like, he came back, he performed, but there were feelings last week that when he stepped back to pass, like you were scared that he was going to throw another pick. He threw three picks. All right. Two of the three were absolutely on him and

Austin (35:39)
Mm-hmm.

wow, I didn't know that.

Kyle Blondin (36:05)
There was, like, I really felt that he was keeping Carolina in the game the way his decision making was poor. ⁓ I don't know what his thought process was checking down to certain guys he was thrown to, but it was real shaky. And you know, a Brock Purdy does not want to see a Cleveland defense on the road and probably piss poor weather and Miles Garrett chasing you down. So.

Austin (36:29)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (36:31)
I think it's going to be a bad news for the 49ers here. The only thing that will save the 49ers in my opinion is that if Shadr or Sanders, you you got to, you got to, you have a week's film on him now that they can game plan to shut him down. So this is a, like just a weird kind of matchup. I think the defense for Cleveland will be a factor here. Brock Purdy, I do not think will excel here in Cleveland.

Austin (36:43)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (36:59)
But I don't know what I'm gonna get with Shudder Sanders. I don't know what he brings to the table. He could be lights out, another performance, solid performance like he had against the Raiders. Or he could just be disaster. So, man, I don't know. I'll tell you what, I'll go, based on the Cleveland defense, I'll take the Browns to cover the four and a half at home, because they're usually lights out D on home. fuck, it's 36 and a half. What am I gonna do? Am gonna tell you the under?

Austin (37:11)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (37:27)
I did that last week with the Raiders. said the over, they didn't cover Browns and Raiders, but I'm going to take the over here just because I had a principal. I can't just let that go. So that's my take. What do you think?

Austin (37:27)
Yeah

You know what you've convinced me and I do agree that the defense is a difference maker. ⁓ I don't know. I don't know if I take them straight up before you said it's four and a half, right? Yeah. Four and a half. know what? Four and a half and the total reflecting how, you know, tight of a game, how low scoring of a game. is going to be, give me the points. You know, I like, I like what you said. Give me the Browns over the 49ers. And you know what? Just, just a thing to mention.

Kyle Blondin (37:47)
Right, it's down from five and a half to four and a half.

Austin (38:04)
You know, I wonder if they do lose to the Browns this week being the, ⁓ the expected wins. Do they talk about Mack Jones potentially filling this quarterback role?

Kyle Blondin (38:13)
think you have to. There was no reason based on Mack Jones' play where you would pull him. And the 49ers have ⁓ a history with Trey Lance to make those tough decisions that if they feel, I don't care if I just gave this guy a contract, if Mack Jones is the guy, I'm gonna go to him. I wouldn't even be surprised if Mack Jones makes an appearance during this game.

I think the leash is very short for Brock Purdy. So expect Mack Jones to potentially, you know what, maybe look at the, ⁓ man, I didn't do any player props this week. My apologies to our audience here. No player props, but I'm just looking at even Brock Purdy's passing yards. Let's check it out. by the way, good call last week on DK Metcalf on the Anytime Touchdown. Way to go.

Austin (39:06)
Thanks. I just had a feeling on that one. He was due. He hadn't had one in a while.

Kyle Blondin (39:10)
So let's look at the passing totals in this game. So Shadour Sanders is over under 155 and a half. 155, he threw for 200 plus yards last week. I would take the over just for the sake of principle, man. can't let that go. I can't have it that low. Like 55 and a half. Like you think he's throwing underhand. Like what is he, what's going on? So Brock Purdy's 204 and a half, which is still low, but I just don't see him finishing this game for whatever reason.

Austin (39:20)
Wow.

155 and a half? Wow. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (39:39)
So I, man, I wouldn't really consider the under for passing total for Brock Purdy. I don't see him finishing. Mack Jones is going to be in this ball game one way or another, and he may be taking over for this team. He was light. He threw like 300 plus yards in his last game before Purdy came back. So I was not a Mack Jones fan, but consider me a Mack Jones fan right now. This guy had this offense humming all their, all their tools.

Austin (39:45)
Yeah.

Hmm.

Kyle Blondin (40:07)
All their weapons are back. Joanne Jennings is having a big year. Tittle back. ⁓ Obviously we know about Brandon Iuke's not really gonna be back for the 49ers. But they have things. Christian McCaffrey is absolutely nuts. Like this guy, pass, catch, rush. This guy is absolutely a weapon. I think Mack Jones makes it sing, not Brock Purdy at the moment. I'm really scared for Brock Purdy.

Nothing.

Austin (40:35)
So

if you were making that decision, Mac 10 would be starting this week.

Kyle Blondin (40:39)
I don't think you have time to fuck around you have to win you have to win in Cleveland is not a good spot to head into on the road and Have questions that only got every time my quarterback steps back. I'm fearful that he's gonna make a bad decision Not a good place not a good place

Austin (40:43)
Yeah.

Yeah, and you

know what? San Francisco has always been one of those teams that's not afraid to make a quarterback change, you know? So if they really if they really do lose this week, I think Mac 10 is a starter going forward. I'm almost sure. I'm almost sure of it. If they lose this game.

Kyle Blondin (40:59)
Not at all, not at

Okay, so we're on the Mac 10 watch here, okay?

Austin (41:11)
Yeah.

Where's the, where's the Mac 10, ⁓ MVP odds sitting at right now? No, I'm just joking. I'm just kidding. I'm totally kidding.

Kyle Blondin (41:15)
I don't think I can scroll that far down to get it. Well, honestly,

if he would have hung around, ⁓ there might have been some thought of Matt Jones, but okay.

Austin (41:23)
I don't know if I'd go that far, but I know what you're saying. Like

he, he was doing good. He was a guy. would, he, you know what, you know, we were talking about potential fantasy pickups. you know, if you are desperate for a quarterback or in a two quarterback league and, and, Mack 10 is on your bench. He could potentially be a stash. You know, I wouldn't, if you had to drop somebody good, I wouldn't do it. But if he's a free pickup, you know, he might be a guy to I being the starter going forward. If they lose this game.

Kyle Blondin (41:50)
I don't disagree with that. Throw them on the bench, see what happens.

Austin (41:53)
Especially for a two quarterback league.

Kyle Blondin (41:55)
Especially to

quarterback lead and especially his playoff time is coming up in fantasy football Very soon that you might want to throw on the bench and see what happens because he's gonna put up numbers Alright, so what so I we both have the Browns. I took the over 36 and a half. What was your take on the over-under?

Austin (42:02)
Yep, exactly. ⁓

⁓ Yeah, total being that low give me the over

Kyle Blondin (42:14)
man were suckers for that alright again another game there is a lot of fluff I mean there's a lot of shit games like absolute shit like absolute flush don't even look kinda games like in this is one of them the Atlanta Falcons are minus two and a half heading into New York to take on the Jets what what what's again at a 10 what is your scale of interest 10 being I'm so focused on this game

Austin (42:23)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (42:43)
one are one being I care less where would you put your focus on this game. ⁓

Austin (42:48)
I mean,

I guess you could look at it as either team could win again, but ⁓ you're right. There's a lot of bad games this week. This is not one I'll probably be tuning into. ⁓ That's all I really have to say. Yeah, there's not, no.

Kyle Blondin (43:01)
Wow, there's really not much going on here.

I I didn't even look here. Is Tyra Taylor starting again? I gotta assume he is. Yeah, he's starting. Kirk Cousins, your boy. You suggested maybe to dump him in fantasy. Not a great pick there. I'm gonna take the Jets. I feel that Tyra Taylor's at least little safer than Kirk Cousins at the moment.

The Atlanta Falcons are going to go through that or they're to fire Raheem Horace. He's an average guy. He's not your guy that's going lead this team to another level. Just simply, that's just the way it is. He's not a coach that's going to move forward. just don't see it. I didn't understand the hire in the first place for a team that you're building from ⁓ the draft and you decide to go with Penix and have Cousins sit on the bench. Now Penix is out. Once again, this franchise is kind of in disarray.

Not knowing maybe where they're be quarterback who their quarterbacks gonna be going forward after thinking you had to I like the Jets here I like this game to go over thirty nine and a half again because a little total I'm suckered in. What do think here?

Austin (44:08)
I'm actually going to go on the other side with the with Atlanta. I think I think that with, you know, the key guys that the Jets have traded on defense that maybe maybe Bijon Robinson can have a big game here. And that and that's the reason why all ⁓ I'll go with Atlanta. But I will say I do think this game goes under as well under the thirty nine and a half. Just be just just yeah, just because if it's a Bijon game, which I'm predicting here,

Kyle Blondin (44:09)
Whoa! Whoa!

Whoa, under!

Fair

enough.

Austin (44:37)
You

know, you know, the running back controls the clock kills kills a lot of time. And I think this game moves slowly because of that. ⁓ And then, yeah, and then I see the Yeah, I see the jet struggling to put up points. I'm not, you know, I'm not a Tyra Taylor hater. But, you know, ⁓ two and a half, I think we cover or sorry, Atlanta covers and that's my pick for the day.

Kyle Blondin (44:44)
Okay, that's.

So Bijan's rushing total is 78.5 minus 114. Does that appeal to you?

Austin (45:04)
Yeah,

yeah, I would say it's a ghost at least at least 90 yard game, you know, or if I'm sitting over under I just probably like at 90 85 and a half. So yeah, give me give me that prop bed as well. Lock me in for that.

Kyle Blondin (45:17)
Well,

let me throw this out at you. So would you prefer the over 78 and a half or the player rush and receiving yardage over under is 115 and a half minus 114 rushing yards? Okay. Okay.

Austin (45:29)
Give me the rushing yards. Give me the rushing yards. Yeah. I think the

rushing yards is what he crushes.

Kyle Blondin (45:34)
Write it down in the book here, that means it's official. It's locked in, it's over, what did I say, 78 and a half. Rush. That means you're committed. This podcast now is banking on your credibility based on this pick you made with Bijan. All right, Bijan's your guy. Bijan is your guy. Okay. Make sure your name's on or not mine. All right.

Austin (45:36)
Let's go. It's locked in.

Pijons my guy this week he's my guy.

Kyle Blondin (45:58)
So that's that. said the under, we're taking the complete opposite in this game. So I'm supporting the Jets on this one. We move on to a very interesting matchup. I don't know if the word exciting is on there, but I mean, I'll pay attention to this one. It's one of the big games in the one o'clock hour, maybe the biggest. And that is the Houston Texans with CJ Stroud back heading into Indy to take on the Colts who look normal. I mean, they look, you know, they looked unstoppable.

Danny Jones, Danny Dams and Tara and Jonathan Taylor or running across the NFL, just destroying teams. But now they've taken a step back. You know, they lost against the co chiefs last week and overtime pissed away a lead that they could have solidified that division. Now the Texans have CJ stroke back this they're coming off with just a lights out performance against the build eight sacks of Josh Allen. This line was ⁓ Indy.

Austin (46:51)
Close.

Kyle Blondin (46:55)
So four and a half now down to three and a half. gotta believe because the confirmation of CJ Stroud is back, but the quotes are still favorite 44 and a half. What's your thoughts on this one?

Austin (47:06)
You know, I actually think the Colts get it done this game. I think the Colts beat the Texans here. You know, maybe I want to see, I really want to see how sauce Gardner goes up against ⁓ Nico Collins. I think that's going to be a big deciding factor in this game. ⁓ But you know, the Colts, the Colts also got Jonathan Taylor. get, I feel like they got more going for them. And that's why I'll, I'll take the Colts today. What's the, what's the over and under on that?

Kyle Blondin (47:31)
44 and a half.

Austin (47:32)
⁓ Give me the overs while I see a lot of points in this game.

Kyle Blondin (47:36)
Yeah, I'll take you over as well, but I do think a little differently. I think the Houston Texans cover at least three and a half. I think this comes down to a field goal. ⁓ this Texas defense is real. They're not phony. They're not fake. They're not just a paper, ⁓ you know, defense that runs up sacks and a blowout. This D is absolutely the jet. I'd still based on history watching Daniel Jones with the giants and somewhat little blur blips of, ⁓

Austin (47:44)
Hmm.

Kyle Blondin (48:05)
piss-poor play with the Colts. I think we see a Daniel Jones under duress. I think he fumbles. I think he throws a few picks. I don't think this is gonna be a good day for Danny Jones. Danny Dimes. I think there's gonna be questions on oh shit. This is actually who we have a quarterback, which is better than Anthony Richardson, but maybe I'm overstating it here, but I think the Texans make it hard for Danny Dimes to set up shop and produce so.

Give me the text and seer to cover. Let's put the K beside the Houston and take opposite sides here.

Austin (48:39)
Yeah, just a question. Do you think there's any chance, any chance, because I don't, I don't, but if CJ Stroud struggles that they talk about putting Mills back in, I don't think so. Right.

Kyle Blondin (48:51)
Not at this stage man. CJ Stroud is a franchise quarterback and unless he's banged up or absolutely horrid, I don't see it. That would just cause more problems than anything else. I mean, just don't see it. I just don't see it.

Austin (48:55)
Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah.

That guy did it. He really did hold it down.

Kyle Blondin (49:07)
He

did. did. All right. So we head into the four o'clock hour, three games in the four o'clock hour. ⁓ I don't know what this peak of interest, where would you put this out of 10? Minnesota taking on your boy Sam Darnold in the Seahawks at four o'clock. ⁓ Sam Darnold, still your boy.

Austin (49:28)
100 % still my boy and this is this is a revenge game, right? Call it a revenge game

Kyle Blondin (49:33)
Yeah, fair, yeah, you know what I didn't even think

about that right this is a revenge game in there But is it revenge and is your boy good enough to cover 11 and a half points? Do see that 11 and a half points? Yeah

Austin (49:44)
11 and a half. That's the that's

crazy. I know I know Seattle is relentless like, you know, they'll keep piling it on. So, you know what? Wow. I cannot believe that line, but I'll choose. I'll take them covering. I'll take them covering. That is a crazy one. How bad is JJ McCartney? I know I've been crap talking him for weeks, but to see this actual line.

Kyle Blondin (50:02)
Wow

Austin (50:13)
And no, he's the main reason because of it is crazy to me. Like Justin Jefferson's like, you know, after last week, I don't even think I can bet Justin Jefferson totals.

Kyle Blondin (50:19)
Noah's eye, he's not...

So now this is where I want to crush your like, you know, you've been working so hard that you know that JJ McCarthy is not playing in this game. ⁓ He's out. He's out. Concussion. Max Brosmer for the Vikings will be starting quarterback. Max Brosmer, yeah. So let's look at a little, nobody's going to confuse you for like, know, Ian Rapoport ⁓ on this. ⁓

Austin (50:33)
Really? They bench him?

Wow.

Who? Never heard of them.

Ha

Kyle Blondin (50:57)
Okay, Max Brosmer, he's 24 years old Let's see he was New Hampshire Wildcats and a Minnesota Golden Golfer so he is 6 foot 2 218 pounds He says he's a rookie right? He this is his first year, but he's gonna be starting and I didn't tell you that obviously 11 and a half and 41 and a half Here's my thought on this is that

I had the Vikings and Packers to go over. That was kind of my my teaser game. I dropped the line to over whatever 35, 36 points, whatever it may be. This Minnesota offense was so bad, especially in the second half. They couldn't move the ball at all. And when you're following on your phone, you know when you're not watching but you're following on your phone, it just felt like the Minnesota Vikings kept going backwards. It just, just terrible. J.J. McCarthy is a problem. This is a big problem for the Vikings that

They banked on him being their franchise quarterback to let your boy go, Sam Darnold, and it's not paying off. I thought it would be more successful, so I was wrong there. I thought that they felt that Sam Darnold could only take him to a certain level, but J.J. McCarthy's going nowhere right now. He is absolutely horrible. Kevin O'Connell, the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, when he first came aboard in first couple seasons, he was able to get a lot out of quarterbacks that stepped in.

Austin (51:59)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (52:21)
You know, when Kirk Cousins was hurt, example, getting wins, you know, for quarterbacks that are, you know, coming off the bench, but it's a complete opposite right now. He, he's doing nothing with JJ McCarthy and it's a red flag that he may not be the guy going forward. Max Brommer, whoever this guy is, can't be worse. He can't be any worse than JJ McCarthy. And all he has to do is make a few passes.

Austin (52:21)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (52:51)
to get the ball in the hands of, you know, Justin Jefferson and Madison. Like he, I mean, he cannot get worse. So I think that somehow they are in a better position with maybe a credible quarterback that just is average, average, that's all they need. So I like them to cover the 11 and a half. I think there's a story here that this guy might be, ⁓ you know, impactful. Do they win? Probably not.

But I like the cover, I like the scheme to go over 41 and a half. What was your thoughts on the over here?

Austin (53:24)
Yeah. ⁓ over 39 and a half. Give me the over 39 and a half. 41 and a half, 41 and a half. ⁓ I'll, I'll still take that number. I'll take over 41 and a half. think you're right. You know, the situation can't get any worse. Give us some average quarterback play and the Vikings are probably better. Yeah. But I mean, I'll believe it when I see it. I know, I know that, ⁓ you know, it's a team that beats up on a weaker teams and, just is relentless when they're up.

Kyle Blondin (53:26)
Sorry, 41 and a half. Sorry. Yeah.

That's all.

Austin (53:52)
⁓ and you know, it is a revenge game. So give me, give me, ⁓ Seattle with those points. Yeah, it's, it's, yeah, it's, I like what you're saying though. I completely agree with you. And I just want to say one of the biggest tragedies in football is Justin Jefferson not having a quarterback. Yeah. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (53:57)
Seattle with the points.

Yeah, it's a waste. It's a waste. we

always wonder why receivers yap and they piss on, like, want the ball, whatever. It's because you find yourself in a situation like Justin Jefferson is right now. He has no recourse. He has no ability to change the fact that he doesn't have a quarterback to get on the ball.

Austin (54:17)
Yeah

Yeah.

Yeah. And you know what I want to say as baby as it seems, as like childlike as it seems, like, know, AJ Brown being the perfect example. It's like this guy, you know, he'll whine and complain, but then it always seems to work out for him. You know, they start feeding him the ball because he's complaining and you know, it's, it's sad to say, but it like, uh, it works.

Kyle Blondin (54:47)
Yeah, and there wasn't many bright spots for the Eagles yesterday, but AJ Brown was one of them. He made some plays that only an AJ Brown type of receiver could make, especially trying to come back. there is some truth to what you're saying. But speaking of receivers, how good is Jackson Smith and Jigba? How good is this guy? Holy cow.

Austin (54:52)
Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah.

Right now he's considered

the best receiver in football right now.

Kyle Blondin (55:13)
This may look look at his okay let's go through his last let's say does it like a lot of games so last game eight reception 167 yards to touchdown nine receptions the previous game against the Rams 105 yards five reception 93 yards 129 yards 123 yards 162 yards hundred thirty two yards 79 socks you guys garbage 96 hundred three one twenty four

Austin (55:24)
Holy shit.

Hahaha

Kyle Blondin (55:43)
Amazing is this guy like he's outs. He's so underappreciated in the NFL. It's insane

Austin (55:44)
Yep. He-

Yeah.

He is, ⁓ I don't know if you're aware of this and I'm sure you could guess it, but, right now, if you're redrafting and fantasy football, JSN is the number one player. He is the number one most valuable player in fantasy. You know, he, does all this. He's kind of like putting like puking, Nakua numbers, but he has no injury risk. You know, he, he's not, he hasn't played football the same way, but, ⁓ man, is he good, man, is he amazing? And I mean, listen, I'm not.

Kyle Blondin (56:04)
Yeah.

He's as hell too, like, yeah.

Austin (56:16)
I'm not saying that it's the main factor because I think he's talented regardless, but it's good. You know him and Darnold like man, they're what a duo, what a duo. Like I know you're not necessarily a bigger, the biggest believer in Sam Darnold, but like, man, is he getting full usage out of him? Sam Darnold, even if he's not the most talented quarterback, he gets usage out of his guys. And that goes a long way, you know,

Kyle Blondin (56:42)
You know they say the chicken to the egg who who's helping who Sam Darnold helping because in jig bar jib was because of Sam Darnold.

Austin (56:46)
Yeah, who is who is yeah

Yeah. But, but hey, you still got to be good

enough to use those weapons. You know what mean? I think, I think, I think Donald is not, he's good enough to get you by if you have the weapons and you know that, that would have been all the Vikings needed. You know, if, if the Vikings have Sam Donald, you know, I'm thinking they're a 10 win team straight up. And you know, it's like, if you're telling me all those wins aren't worth paying the guy, I don't know what it is.

Kyle Blondin (57:18)
That's true. Alright, so that's that. you like the cover. Sorry, I like the Vikings to cover. I'm gonna get Max Brosmore jersey, you know, for the Vikings. He's my guy now. ⁓ But you like Sammy Darnold and Njigba looks to have an outstanding, huge performance once again, like he's done all year. Underappreciated for sure. Now if we look at the four o'clock hour, the game of the day has to be...

Austin (57:19)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (57:45)
And I don't think we can argue this is that the bills go into Pittsburgh and take on the Steelers. Rodgers is back with the Steelers. Steelers lose last week to Chicago. know, Mason Rudolph is a serviceable backup quarterback, there is so, the NFL is so telling because when you're a backup quarterback, it's so hard for you to take that next leap to be the starter. You can't be so bad to not be considered a backup quarterback.

Austin (58:09)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (58:12)
But you have your limit. That's it. That's all you have. You're a backup quarterback. And that's what Mason Rudolph is. And the only hope that the Steelers have of doing anything is if Aaron Rodgers is dialing up. So that's, glad he's back. The bill's coming off that loss to the Houston Texans. Dalton King-Kate I think is out. I think he's still questionable heading in. Most likely won't play.

Austin (58:16)
Yeah.

Yep.

Kyle Blondin (58:37)
But this game is now down to three. The Bills were three and a half point favorites, now down to three. 47 and a half, the over under. What do you think is going on here?

Austin (58:47)
⁓ I gotta go with the Bills and I man I just want to say you know you're completely right about ⁓ Mason Rudolph you know I was watching that game that was probably the game I was most locked into ⁓ Steelers and Bears last week and to see him throw an interception on the first play I was like man this sucks you know and they they did keep it competitive but you know obviously after the Bears also beat the Eagles you feel a little bit a little bit less worse about them beating the Steelers

are the Steelers losing I ⁓ But I think I still got to go against the Steelers today. know the Bills the Bills are a playoff team and I think three and a half is honestly too low. Give me the Bills. I'm sorry it's three on the dot. Okay then I'm even more happy about it because I get that push if it's a three point game. So definitely lock me in there.

Kyle Blondin (59:34)
Three, it's three, it's three, yeah.

Look, I'm gonna change my mind here. I was gonna go ride the same thought process you were, but I'm gonna go with the Steelers. I just envision every so often this Pittsburgh D lights it up, TJ Watt, you know, making things uncomfortable for the quarterback. And the Bills have shown that they can't stop a pass rush, a good pass rush. So I'm gonna go with the Steelers on this one. Quick change. mean, I agree with everything you're saying, but let's go and just go and bite, you know, a thought.

Austin (59:46)
Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:00:11)
Feeling and the Steelers somehow get to Josh Allen make it rough for him And we see when that happens they can't overcome When when they they cannot block it's as simple as that 47 1 half is that too high or is that too low?

Austin (1:00:24)
Yeah, and

⁓ give me the over as well.

Kyle Blondin (1:00:31)
Okay I'm gonna go with the under. I just see this is like a scrappy kind of game but... ⁓ you had a thought I cut you off. ahead.

Austin (1:00:38)
Yeah, I just want to, you know, I mentioned this every single week, you know, I'm like a broken record on certain certain subjects, but the Steelers and this is helping your case, not my case, but the Steelers are a way better team at home. So, you know, so I'm less confident about my bet, but I'm still, you know, the bills, I want to believe Josh Allen is that guy. So I'm rolling with, I'm rolling with Josh Allen.

Kyle Blondin (1:00:51)
and they're playing at home, so there you go.

Okay, all right.

Rolling with Josh Allen. That's not a bad thing to roll with, but based on last week's performance, maybe not the play to make. But we'll find out and we're going to go now to a game which we expect it to be one sided. The LA Chargers host the Vegas Raiders. Vegas comes in as nine and half point underdogs. Let's get over under 40, 42 and a half. No, 40 and a half. Went down again. So 40 and a half.

from 41 and a half. ⁓ Now the Raiders, they, what's the defense court? ⁓ Special team coach, he fired a few weeks back after the game against Denver. They fired the special teams coordinator. Now after the game against the Cowboys, sorry, against the Browns, they fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly. So Chip Kelly's out and there was reports, like this is how fucked up the Vegas Raiders are that

Chip Kelly, their offensive coordinator was calling plays that were not worked on during the week. Like it would be confusing to Jean. He was throwing things in there that weren't, wasn't part of the plan. Like that just tells me how dysfunctional this team is. That if the issue is not just that he was ineffective in his play calling, but if the reports are true that he was, you know, off, you know, on a different page than the quarterback, this team is messed up.

Austin (1:02:15)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:02:30)
And by firing your special teams coordinator, firing your offensive coordinator is just a shell game to the fact that Pete Carroll has no control of what's going on with the Raiders as head coach. And it's getting ugly. So I have no faith, zero faith in the Vegas Raiders. I'll take the Chargers all day on this one. And then over under, I'm going to go 40 and half over. God damn it, can't. I have to do it. So go ahead, what are your thoughts?

Austin (1:02:42)
Mm-hmm.

Yeah.

Yeah,

no, you know, I I agree with what you're saying, ⁓ know, you kind of strengthen my opinions to this game So i'm taking i'm taking it the exact same way as you give me the chargers getting the points and give me the over you know, ⁓ justin herbert could go crazy here He could be he could be like a a big ⁓ big quarterback play he could be number one quarterback in fantasy this week. I I like I like this play that's

Kyle Blondin (1:03:24)
416 I got Justin Herbert. What about McConkley?

Austin (1:03:29)
⁓ yeah, he could have a big game too. ⁓ you know, the steam, the steam has a lot of weapons. I'm not exactly sure where it's going to go, but lad has been, ⁓ you know, he made a big comeback in kind of the second half of this year. You know, he started off a little slow now he's full go give me the chargers. Let's go.

Kyle Blondin (1:03:44)
235 and a half

is Justin Herbert's passing yard. Do think he goes over that?

Austin (1:03:48)
Yes, easily. $250 for sure.

Kyle Blondin (1:03:50)
Okay, I'm a Concrete, I'm over 51 and a half. Okay, that's it, 416, I need that win. So we're almost in playoff time, man. It's finishing football's coming down to the...

Austin (1:03:52)
275. Yeah. Yeah.

Let's go.

Yeah, I'm

sitting in the buy spot right now in week two for your league. I'm pretty excited about that one. It's probably my best team that I have.

Kyle Blondin (1:04:06)
Okay.

Yeah, that doesn't help me at all. All right. So we also have the Sunday nighter, which I, well, they should have flexed out of this game because they have the ability on Sunday nights to, you know, a couple of weeks in advance flex out of the game to move to another game. Right now Denver is in Washington to take on the commanders. What game would you have, like if you were NBC and you had to push a game into the eight o'clock hour, which game on this card would you have taken?

Austin (1:04:11)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:04:40)
to push to this time. Yeah, yes, not the Falcons Jets.

Austin (1:04:40)
⁓ Mean I guess I guess it would be the Steelers game then the Steelers Steelers bills would have been the easy play ⁓ But I mean there

yeah, but I will say there were so many bad games this week that I'm glad it wasn't like a Like like it is this isn't like the worst game imaginable. It's just kind of like an average game. I would say yeah

Kyle Blondin (1:05:01)
Well the Broncos are five and a half point favorites. This is down from six and a half where it opened up and the over under is 43 and a half. Let me just double check that, make sure that line still holds true. Yeah, the Broncos, man. We're talking about the division leading Broncos in the AFC West and they are significant. Nine and two, this Broncos team is probably gonna chalk up another win here.

Lock in this division. Did you see this coming? Bo Nix and Sean Payton have led this team most likely to a division title. And you're talking about a division that has a Kansas City Chiefs in it. Are you shocked in how they're playing? Are you surprised or is this something that you expected?

Austin (1:05:47)
I'm not shocked about how they're playing. I'm definitely shocked about how the Kansas City Chiefs are playing. you know, you know, ⁓ Denver has been known for the last couple of years to have one of the best defenses in football. And then you got Bo Nicks with a super strong arm. You know, I know their offense has been a little shaky this year, but I think they're legit. You know, I think ⁓ their quality team, say defense wins games. You know, me and you have also talked about Sir Tan maybe being the best defensive player in football, least top three.

Kyle Blondin (1:06:10)
Right.

Austin (1:06:15)
So, you know, I'm not surprised and, you know, I think they win this game and they cover. Sorry, sorry, I just want to conform before I lock it in though. The total was three and a half.

Kyle Blondin (1:06:26)
So the five and a half for the Broncos. Yes.

Austin (1:06:28)
Five and a half.

I still like that. Jaden Daniels is still out, correct? Yeah, so the fact that Jaden Daniels is out and this offense for Washington has been struggling all year, I think it's an easy pick.

Kyle Blondin (1:06:34)
Yep, he's out. He's out.

Okay, so yeah, I just can't see myself taking the commanders, know, with no Jane Daniels equals average at best in my opinion. 43 and a half, sorry, what'd you take there? Do you want the over, you want the under? Over, okay. I'm gonna take the under. Surprise, under, all right. Now we have the Monday nighter to wrap us up here. Jackson Dart is back.

Austin (1:06:50)
Average at best,

Give me the over. Yep.

Kyle Blondin (1:07:09)
as the Giants head into New England to take on the Patriots. The AFC, look at this. We just came off a game where we talking about the AFC West, Denver Broncos looking to probably run away with the division. Now we're talking about the New England Patriots. Non-Tom Brady New England Patriots looking to run away with the AFC East. Is this wild or what?

Austin (1:07:25)
Mm-hmm.

It's crazy. It's crazy to see that they're so far ahead of the bills right now. ⁓ you know, unbelievable.

Kyle Blondin (1:07:39)
Yeah, it's kind of wild that it's got this far. knew that Vrabel would be a positive impact. Drake may look like to be rising, but to put together the wins that they've put together, it's very ⁓ shocking and the Bills have fallen back. So we'll see what happens and how it plays out as the playoffs roll around and the Patriots will be there, which we didn't see coming. I didn't necessarily see it coming, but they will be and they'll be a force to be reckoned with. Now we have the Patriots at home seven and a half.

Is there an Upset Special potentially here?

Austin (1:08:12)
No, I don't think so. Do you? No, think I think the Patriots team role. I don't know. They said good Patriots team. I'm not I don't want to doubt them anymore. I don't necessarily think, you know, against each other, they beat the bills. But I think they run the table and they control this number one seed the rest of the way.

Kyle Blondin (1:08:13)
Come on, this is supposed to end this here drama, man, drama!

Yeah, I don't disagree with you. mean, I can't see how Vrabel, ⁓ here's, here's my thoughts on this. I guess I, I see variable as a smart defensive minded coach where I think you'll have a game plan against Jackson Dart coming into this game. I think they covered the seven and a half. also if you're the New York giants and you have a returning rookie quarterback that's coming back from a concussion, do you put some limitations or strict guidelines on Jackson Dart when he takes off out of the pocket?

Austin (1:09:04)
Oh, 100 % because you want this guy 100 % ready and healthy next year. You know, you're not fighting for anything this year. So I think, you know, they should be playing it safe. They shouldn't be doing risky things.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:16)
And if Jackson Dart doesn't have the free autonomy to roll out and run as he sees fit, is he really as effective? I mean, his legs have been, like the whole thing has been successful for him.

Austin (1:09:22)
Mm-hmm. You're completely right.

Yeah, he's been rushing for what like 4050 yards a game he's been rushing for like that's that's that's a difference in a game. I like what you're saying. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:31)
Yes, yes.

I just don't see it. Yeah, I don't see

him being able to take off. I think he's gonna take the safe approach. So I don't like this for the Giants.

Austin (1:09:41)
Yeah, think that translates

to lot more puns, that's for sure. Yeah. I've never been over and under in puns, but honestly, that might be.

Kyle Blondin (1:09:48)
I should check the overrunner and punts. That'd be good. The line exists. Oh man, come on

Imagine like cheering in a Vegas book because oh yeah another punt we got to over one more point Like oh, but there's degenerates out there. It doesn't do this shit. So alright, so that's the last one But the over under forty six and a half. I'm gonna say under what do you think of this? forty six and a half

Austin (1:09:57)
Yes Yeah Yeah

yeah, give me the under two. I don't see the giants putting up points, right? We said a lot of puns. So that means a lot of time taken off the clock. give me the under for that one. Yep.

Kyle Blondin (1:10:12)
Okay.

Okay, so you like a lot of punts here. All right,

you're looking you're basically doing your scouting on the punting situation You're the special teams guy you're the punk guy. Yeah. All right. Well that wraps up week 13 Thanksgiving week for the NFL ⁓ Obviously next week. got week 14 coming up and some exciting near the end of the season matchups And we'll get back at it again next week any final thoughts anything about sports anything about life you want to talk about before we go?

Austin (1:10:24)
⁓ I'm the punt guy now.

So my work schedule this week should be a little lighter, so I should be more locked in, know, have some more prepared player props, for example, for next week. You know, definitely been out of the loop this week, but I think next week I might come with some more concrete picks, let's say.

Kyle Blondin (1:11:05)
⁓

And you also said a little lighter. I don't think the cement business is anything light about the cement business, there? Okay. Well, the over under, sorry, over under, holy crap, man. The overrated experience has, it's been a pleasure to ⁓ reach out to our audience in Austin. There's a lot of people in the U S and around the world that are listening to your voice. So ranging, there's no limitations. ⁓ Who's listening to us. So.

Austin (1:11:13)
Yeah, no.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (1:11:35)
We're glad to have you here. We're glad to go through another week of NFL action and betting action. So the overrider, man, I'm doing it again, over under. The overrated experience, the pleasure's all been yours, but we are out of here and gone for another week. We'll see you next week with week 14. Bye bye.

Austin (1:11:44)
Hahaha!

Awesome from Ajax out.

Kyle Blondin (1:11:55)
All right, bye bye.