S4E21 - NFL Thanksgiving Bets

Its US Thanksgiving and that means NFL Football Betting!!

The Overrated Experience Podcast give you our picks vs the Spread, OV/UN and Player Props

3 Games:

• Packers vs Lions
• Chiefs vs Cowboys
• Bengals vs Ravens

Wait there's more! Black Friday 

• Bears vs Eagles 

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle blind and I'm here on a special, ⁓ edition of the overrated experience for us Thanksgiving. Why am I saying us when it's just Thanksgiving? Well, I'm Canadian a, and I got to point out that, I'm following and have always followed the NFL and love the tradition of games on S on Thursdays.

And I go, I'm that old where I can remember there was only two. And if you are out there, maybe some of you are only remember when there was one, when it was Detroit only, but we got three, we're to go through it today and welcome back for those who've been joining us consistently. We appreciate the support. Unfortunately, Austin from Ajax can't make it tonight, but we're to ride solo. We're going to go quick, fast and efficient here to get you ready for Thursday's action. The overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast can be followed via X.

at overrated eXPER2. That's overrated eXPER2. That's right. Let me know. Let us know if you join us and that you're joining us because you listen to the podcast. You can also follow the overrated experience on Instagram at overrated experience and Facebook overrated experience. We've got a lot going on here today. So what we're going to talk about and for those who are joining for the first time,

This is a sports betting show that's kind of in between a square and a sharp betting perspective. Yes, analytics is used to make many of our picks and drive many of our conversations. But like you, we do get caught up in the action. The excitement of three games on a Thursday, let's say that's perfect example. And ⁓ we do the best we can to give you the best insight possible to help your entertainment for

Sunday but in this case of Thursday, so here we go and what we'll do is we'll go through the spreads We'll go through the over-under the three games will go through some of the props I've added a couple same-game parlays and let us know what you think and maybe we'll take a little a little ⁓ Trip in the time machine and go back to Sunday and give a few thoughts on a few things. So let's go Well, if we're looking at week 12, which finished up on Monday night a couple things that stood out to me was

Are the Cowboys for real? Are they real? I mean, no faggots, no problem two weeks ago, but 21 down against the world champion Philadelphia Eagles, march back and win?

Jerry's defensive trades paying off. Wow. And I'll tell you right now that what I love about the Cowboys coming back and knocking off the Eagles is that you have the Kansas City Chiefs back to the wall. Also with a big victory over the Colts setting up this four o'clock, 430 game, which allows a lot more interest for you, the viewer, me, the viewer, and whoever else is the viewer. So that's awesome. Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

against the Packers, that's exciting as well. just going back to the Cowboys, are they for real? We're gonna find out. I'm kinda jury out on if they can keep this going, because that defense is absolutely horrid, or at least it was. I need to see a bit more. Speaking of not horrid, would be the Los Angeles Rams. I must admit, I thought this Rams team was a good team, but man.

They are number one in many, many football insiders power rankings this year. And now I can finally see the light. I can see what the world has been saying about this Rams team. I could not get the idea that if you remember back in training camp, Matthew Stafford had a back issue. And the only question was, could he play? Because he really couldn't play the preseason.

But could he be ready for the season? Not only was he ready for the season, he is the odds on clear cut favorite to win the NFL MVP this season. Unless something goes dramatically wrong, which you never know could in the NFL, but everything points to Matthew Stafford being the MVP. That's a hard sell to me. You can't sell me on anybody else at this moment. Matthew Stafford is the MVP. This Rams team,

is a juggernaut at the moment. Everything's going well for this team. They're rolling through the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which I thought may have had an opportunity to hang with the Rams on the road at SoFi, got smacked around. And Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now, that stock is down. That stock is down. And now Baker, left shoulder.

Probably won't see him against the Cardinals this weekend. Teddy Bridgewater in, Baker out. But the Rams, wow. Just a watch out for the Rams. Two other comments I'll make on a few other items.

The Vegas Raiders are absolute trash. Absolute trash. And when an organization can't get it their own way, when they can't admit the direction they've taken, the talent they've evaluated was wrong, if they can't come to that conclusion that what's going on in Vegas, it ain't working, it's gonna be a hard

hard experience for the Vegas fans, Raider Nation, if they don't try to steer the ship immediately. And that's the difference between organizations like Baltimore Ravens. I'll put up the 49ers because they've made some bold, risky, ballsy decisions to make personnel moves and not be stuck in the idea that ⁓ Lance was their quarterback, even though they

moved a lot of a lot of capital to move up in the draft to pick him up. They said, no, you know, we may have traded multiple first round picks to move up to take Lance, but we're good with the guy who was Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick overall in Brock Purdy. So that's something the Vegas Raiders got to come to the conclusion that this ain't working. Why would they think about trading Max Crosby?

when they get some assets for them. But if they weren't thinking about it at the trade deadline, that's a must in the off season. This team is going nowhere. They have no quarterback. Do you know Smith? He is what he is. He's at best chasing, leading a team to potentially just fall short of the playoffs.

That's what he is. Nothing more, nothing less. Geno Smith is not the answer if your answer is that I want to win a Super Bowl. Pete Carroll. This is the insignificant coaching job that nobody will remember with Pete Carroll. They fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly after Sunday's loss to the Cleveland Browns. It ain't working, Pete. Just ain't working.

Time to hit the golf course, retire, and leave it for the young man out there. And yeah, so my last point would be, what is my last point? I almost forgot it. Well, my last point is Carolina Panthers are frauds. Man, they're recipe to success, and believe me, they've had success. It is all on their defense.

in creating turnovers and they do a great job at it no question but I think you'll see now that they have a few guys in the secondary banged up going forward that this team it will fall quickly out of the playoff hunt

They are a fraud. All right, write it down. You heard it from me first. But now we're gonna head into what you want me to talk about. Why you're gonna wake up and probably took the day off on Thursday if you live outside of the United States and if you live in the United States, happy Thanksgiving. Love the tradition that as the turkey's cooking, you just drink beer.

Eat, eat, watch football, then break out the turkey to have the real meal. Try to digest all that turkey. Sit back and watch the late game, Cincinnati and Baltimore. Try to digest that. Maybe you're hitting that box of wine, like we all do, that box of red wine. Maybe you gotta put that coffee on to stay up. But let's get these three games going.

And just on a side note, ⁓ we're also going to talk about the Black Friday game where the Bears take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Pretty good matchup. All these matchups are pretty good. So this is pretty wild. We got a good Thanksgiving. We're going to gobble it up. See what I did there? See what I did there. Holiday, Thanksgiving, gobble it up. This is all for free, guys. This is all for free.

I make this stuff up at the top of my head and you're just the end result that they can hear it and take it in. So you're welcome. Big divisional matchup to lead off and kick off Thursday action. The Green Bay Packers walk into Detroit, two and a half point underdogs to take on the Detroit Lions.

This game moved from a 49 and a half to 48 and a half. And again, for those who haven't joined us before, we're using FanDuel as our line. We're not sponsored, nothing, no, no connection. Just happens to be the sports book I'm using today. That is who we're using. So those are the lines could be different to somewhere else, but these are FanDuel.

We watched the NFL opening weekend Detroit into Green Bay and the Lions look bad. They look bad. Green Bay looked like a juggernaut that D with Mika Parsons lights out. Jerichoff could not breathe. It was ugly. The Lions looked like it was, my God, they're taking three steps back. And the Packers look like they were taking a

easy route to the Super Bowl. Well, it's been a little bit up and down for both teams. Packers have seen their woes. Lions have seen them turn it around and then, you know, loot, you know, just not get the job done in Philadelphia two weeks back and then skip past the New York Giants with Jameson Winston as the quarterback in overtime. So the Lions haven't been anything special of late, but

There's always a but. The Packers always have a lull. Every time you think they figured this out, every time you think that the Green Bay Packers have turned the corner, that they have the lights out defense, Jordan Love is going to just tear through any defense he comes up against, there's a game where the Packers look flat.

You remember Cleveland? All right. You remember Carolina at home? These are realistic situations that people forget coming off big wins, ⁓ you know, one or two weeks previous, but don't forget about them because it's going to creep up again. And tomorrow it's going to creep up. The lions get the job done. They cover the two and a half points at home. think this is going to be a theme guys. Just throwing it out at you.

I think there's going be points. guess the betting world believes that there's some indicators to bring this down to 48 and a half from 49 and a half. But I say, let's take the over. Let's not fuck around guys. It's Thursday, Turkey time. Let's go for the points. You don't want to be sitting on that couch with a drumstick or ⁓ maybe pre Turkey that your ⁓ chips beer. I'm sure you don't want to be.

uh... looking for defensive battle so well do for you is i'll take the over in hopes that will trigger an exciting match up here but i believe the lions get the job done i believe the game goes over forty forty eight and a half some of the parlays are steered starting as some of the props are really geared towards the detroit lions being successful jimmy r gives outstanding jimmy r gives one of the best impact players in the nfl currently so i'll take

His combo receiving rushing yards over 108.5 I have no problem with that whatsoever. Minus 118. Jared Goff over 238.5 minus 114. I don't think that we'll see the same disaster that we've seen at Lambeau on week one. And just some interesting news that we just heard today is it won't impact tomorrow's game but retired Detroit Lions center Frank

right now is decide he's coming back he's coming out of retirement and might be ready to go against the you know on the Thursday nighter. ⁓ So that's that's pretty cool so that will help beef up the Lions offensive line they need they need it but for tomorrow I think they'll have enough to get by. David Montgomery here's Valley keep this in mind he has kind of been. You know really placed in the shadows of Jimmie Ruggibs but you know I see.

plus 135 for an anytime touchdown. And you know, the odds are still good that, you know, there's going to be a flag in the end zone putting the ball in the one yard line and that Dan Campbell will maybe want to just bash that ⁓ into the end zone for a touchdown who better than David Montgomery. So I'm not gonna throw that as an official play, just something to think about. I you to ponder that.

If you're what I'm looking at, if you're watching me live, I'm trying to keep an eye on the Montreal Canadiens Utah Mammoth game. I need this game to go over five and a half. And it's 15 minutes to go in the second period, Habs up by two. So it's caught my attention. You know why? Because we're gamblers. That's why I have to multitask, do the pod, and keep an eye on the ongoing bet. So Montgomery, any time touchdown, more of a lean that, something to ponder.

Same game parlay, I know you love those same game parlays. I got a couple here today. So, I'm put three bets together. Jerk off alternative passing yards, 225 or more. This game to go over 39 and a half. And Jameer Gibbs, rushing yards, 50 or more yards. That is plus 152. I feel very comfortable with that same game parlay.

I'm going blue. No cheese tomorrow for me. Now potentially what I heard for the 430 game, the Kansas city chiefs heading into Dallas is that this is usually the non-playoff game that is generates the most ratings. It's right in that time where most people are sitting down for dinner, sitting in front of the TV, probably rolling up the table in front of the couch. So.

Possibly with this matchup could be 50 plus million people watching which is insane ⁓ That just shows you continuously shows you the beast the mammoth the giant that the NFL is They own sports at the moment, especially in North America The Chiefs come in as three and a half point favorites Cowboys dogs at home at Jerry's World now these two teams

are desperate, Baxter against the wall. Just because they came off big victories last week, that's over now. No, none of these teams can afford to lose. All right. The Denver Broncos are running away with the AFC West. Doesn't look like the chief's hopes for division title are going to be possible or real or realistic. A playoff spot is the desperation they find themselves in.

The Cowboys also in that situation where they're outside looking in and they need to go on a run. So what's going to give here?

Well.

I think the Cowboys cover. I can't believe I think this. They may not win, but I believe they at least cover the three and a half. There's something, when they go, when they get hot, they get hot. And I think they'll produce. I think there'll be points in this game. Shocker, I know. This game is going to go over 52 and a half. All right. And the last two games have shown me that Patty Mahomes, I believe, is putting the team on his back. Knowing that

I need to be the guy with the ball in my hands dictating the outcome. Massive yards from Paddy Mahomes. Massive rushing yards from Paddy Mahomes. Paddy knows that the Chiefs offense is him. Andy Reid knows that. So watch out. Patrick Mahomes is going to selfishly, and I say that in a good way, selfishly take over this game.

But the Cowboys will keep it close. All right. So here's my props for this. Mahomes over 21 and a half yards rushing. So he had 30 last game, only three and five yards previous to, but four straight previous to that. He is going to take off out of the pocket. Remember that Cowboys defense is horrid. And then.

He's going to complete over 25 and a half passes. Minus 102. So it's going to be a Patty Mahomes kind of day from the prop side of things. And that's where I see it happening. Some key things to really look at include Rashid Rice has a hammy issue. It looks like he'll play, but he's not 100%. Isaiah Pacheco running back from the Chiefs is back. He'll play.

On the Dallas side, Pickens is a little banged up. So he was questionable. It looks like he'll play, but he was limited at practice. So he may not be a hundred percent. another one for value here. You may not think this, this is where the stats, this is the analytics. This is the sharp analytics that you expect from this podcast. Patty Mahomes interception.

plus 106. He's thrown an interception of four straight games. Four straight games. The Chiefs have been playing backs against the wall, desperation. So do you ride the stats plus 106 to Patty Mahomes to throw one pick tomorrow? Possibly. So let's go there. I thought I had a same game parlay here.

But I had it and I didn't put it down. So maybe just one today and that Detroit came. So we now go on to the Cincinnati Baltimore matchup, the late one, the late window. Now here's the ⁓ interesting portion here. The Bengals season, probably over. They're not coming back, right? You know, three and eight, not the best record. Not at all. Baltimore chasing a division title.

They haven't looked great, but they got the job done. got the W's. That's what counts. So what do we have here? Joey Burrow is back. Joe Burrow is back. And what's the motto of the Cincinnati Bengals? We're going to make a late playoff run, put ourselves in one of those impossible scenarios in week 17 where they can't possibly make it without 65 other teams winning, losing, tying.

that could happen and the risk here is how fragile is Joe Burrow how dependable taking any props Joe Burrow is I'm gonna pretend I'm gonna look the other way on the injury front I'm gonna pretend that Joe Burrow is gonna finish this game we're going to make a factor that Jamar Chase will be back after the one game suspension T Higgins is out

but I still believe this divisional matchup that the Cincinnati Bengals get the job done as far as covering the spread. I'm not, I believe they'll cover the seven points here. Again, 51 and a half. There's been some real shootouts this year, or sorry, over the last few games, the Ravens and Bengals have played. So I take it, I'm going to bet it for the points not under.

I see a shootout here Lamar Jackson gets back on point He's been throwing under 200 yards many games and something right there, so we'll find out if he can turn it around So if Burrow could start I'm gonna take a few props on the Cincinnati bandwagon here Jamar Chase I think he's gonna get 100 plus yards if Burrow goes through this whole game unscathed but 92 and a half minus 114

Gimme Jamar.

Joey burrow above 251 and a half passing yards give me Joey burrow I'm banking on 100 % Joey burrow that's that for that and now we got Black Friday Wow the NFL lucked out with a matchup right now Chicago Bears having a fine season heading into Philadelphia taking on the world champions but the Bears get no respect the Bears have no respect

The Eagles coming off a loss on the road against the Cowboys. Didn't look great. Second half of that ball game. Bears squeaking through many of a game here this season. But on the right side, seven point dogs. Is that disrespect? To the Chicago Bears? Is that disrespect to the Chicago Bears? I don't know. But I'm going to say it is. I'm going to actually call it out and say yes.

the Bears will cover that seven points at minus one eighteen and then when we look at the props I'm put my faith in Caleb Williams here. Two props on Caleb. I gotta believe that he's gonna be running around scrambling a lot. I just think two six and a half passing yards is way too low. know the Eagles are the Eagles and they have

you know a great D and can be very frustrating but 206.5 minus 114 I don't know ⁓ rushing yards I'm gonna say over by the way so when I say and I mean that rushing yards for Caleb Williams over 20.5 minus 114 like I said he's gonna be scrambling he's gonna be out of the box he's gonna be taking off I think you'll get like 30 40 yards in my opinion but that's that for the over under

didn't touch on that because you know what I'm going under 44 and a half minus 110 I'm actually going to take the under in this I see this as a sloppy kind of game the Eagles grinding offense killing the clock run short run time before you know it's halftime so I think the Bears cover I think this game stays under and I Caleb Williams has a solid day

Enough where ⁓ he can cover some of these lower lines that I believe are part of his props. Well, that was it. That was the appetizer. Dinner's tomorrow. Alright? So that was the overrated experience. The pleasure was all yours. Again, to our American partners out there, American contributors, listeners, ⁓ friends, Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy. Don't eat too much.

Stay awake, watch football, and enjoy the next day with your shopping and getting ready for Christmas. Good night everybody. Have a great one. Overhead experience is over and out. Bye.