S4E20 - NFL Wk 12 Sunday Bets

The Overrated Experience is back with you NFL wk 12 bets.

Austin from Ajax is back and we talk Football!!!

• Are the Bills done? 
• What's going on in SF with Aiyuk losing his 27 mil garuntee
• Picks against the Spread
• O/U 
• Props!

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Transcript

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Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin We are back for another week of sports betting action Ideally though. We're looking at the NFL and week 12. We're back and we're joined from

Austin (00:16)
Awesome for me, Jax, baby.

Kyle Blondin (00:17)
We can't get rid of him. He keeps showing up. He's here and he's ready to play some, he's ready to play some pick your teams. I don't know, just made that up. He's going to be picking against the spread over unders. And also he's going to follow us just like you should on X and overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. That's overrated E-X-P-E-R-2 to follow the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. Also overrated experience. If you want to follow us on Instagram. Austin, what's going on?

Austin (00:47)
Not much excited to get to get into some more football

Kyle Blondin (00:50)
What Like last week, I'm gonna go into right to our records. I'm ashamed I'm disgusted. I'm like I just feel like I should just cancel this podcast immediately It was so bad. So if we look back at the 13 plays we had last week, I was three of 13 disgusting Deplorable I should be sent away to a boot camp of some sort

Your 6 of 13 were little more respectable, but my 3 of 13 is absolutely horrible.

Austin (01:23)
Coming back in a big way this week.

Kyle Blondin (01:25)
Let's hope because people are listening. They are wondering what in the hell kind of picks we're making. But you're right, I think this week is going to be different. And before we get to the picks, I just want to mention that the Overrated Experience Sports and SportsPending podcast is your podcast. It's kind of in between the sharp and the square. So ⁓ it's kind of a squirt podcast. We're using data analytics to make our picks, but also, you know, we're human.

We get caught up in the whole, you know, we love the main game on 4, 425 or the eight o'clock game and, or get pissed off like everybody else does by losing and a little bit of chasing going on. So we have those flaws. We're not perfect, but that's the kind of sports betting show you're to listen to. And we're going to focus on the NFL and, but we're not limited to the NFL. We also go into other items, whether it be this podcast.

which are probably mostly NFL. And then, you know, as the season goes on, as the year goes on, jump into other sports as well. So, week 12 coming up. However, week 13 is Thanksgiving week. ⁓ What kind of things are you looking forward to on American Thanksgiving? We're Canadian. We've already had a Thanksgiving. What are you pumped for those midweek games?

Austin (02:46)
Honestly, not really just because you know at least on Sunday I'm able to watch the games on the Thursday I'll probably be working so I mean if I have a day off that's gonna be awesome, but you know I'm not American. I'm not gonna have that holiday sadly

Kyle Blondin (02:58)
What I

will tell you is you're a sucker. You suck. Cause I do have the day off. I make it a point to make that a day off for American Thanksgiving to sit back, kick off at 12, watch the Lions and Packers go at it, and then watch the rest of the games here throughout the day. So you are a sucker. Okay. I just want to let you know. know offense, but I'm just pointing that out. Okay. So we've got some new stories that are happening in the NFL. One of the weirder stories, and I'd like to get your take on this is

Austin (03:01)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (03:29)
Brandon Iuke, receiver for the San Francisco 49ers last season, or actually this season, sorry, this season was the whole concept of his story was he wanted to be traded. There was talk he was gonna go to New England as an example, maybe Pittsburgh. And then he turned into, he signed a big contract with the 49ers. Was that last year this year? I think it was last year maybe. I can't remember. I think it was the previous season.

Austin (03:58)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (03:58)
He signs a big time, $100

million contract. And now the story breaks that Brandon Iuke is going to lose his 2026 guarantees on his contract for not attending meetings and like participating in team functions. And he's not even going to put a grievance with the union to kind of challenge the idea of losing those guarantees. And everything points that at some point,

Austin (04:21)
you

Kyle Blondin (04:29)
He may be released most likely next year. The 49ers would still take a bit of a cap hit of dead money because of the bonus money they paid out. But this is such a weird story that a guy turning away potentially locked in $24 million just to attend meetings.

Austin (04:34)
Okay. Okay.

Kyle Blondin (04:47)
What do you make of this story? It's weird. It's odd. could you think about in your life right now, if somebody said, for your job, all you have to do is show up.

and you're locked in for 24 million, what would it take for you not to show up and be okay with getting rid of those guarantees?

Austin (05:05)
For 24 million I'll show up 10 hours early every day Yeah, the only the only problem about the story right is it's a lot of it's a lot of speculation I feel like nobody really knows what's going on It's either something very serious or the guy wants to be released from the team and this is his strategy. So

Kyle Blondin (05:09)
Would you show up naked to work?

Austin (05:23)
I'm not going to say too much more on it just because I don't know. all a guessing game in my opinion. But definitely very, very crazy. Very crazy to give up all that money. For what? know, it's like, we don't know.

Kyle Blondin (05:36)
I see, he's supposed to come back at some point before the playoffs. ⁓ Is he an impactful player? Absolutely, absolutely. But let's say he's on the open market next year. Is somebody paying him $24 million? I don't see it. Maybe.

Austin (05:52)
Not 24,

but he's definitely worth something. Like if you said 15 million right now, that's kind of like a low ball, but I'd say he's definitely worth that. maybe he's really unhappy with the team, he's willing to that pay cut, but I know exactly what you're saying.

Kyle Blondin (06:08)
How unhappy could you be to not just wake up? He's already at the facility, my understanding, the way the story's planned out. He's at the facility, he's training, but he leaves before the rest of his teammates show up. How separated can you be from the organization to not just bite your tongue, sit in a team meeting, and collect, or at least lock in that guarantee? I don't understand it.

I don't know what advice he's getting. He's never gonna make $24 million in the future. He's coming off a huge injury that could happen again. You know, it just doesn't make any sense. Maybe he's delusional that $24 million is gonna happen for the rest of his life on a yearly basis. That ain't happening. So I don't get it, but the 49ers, man, they can really use him right now. They can really use him back, but just a weird story. Very odd. Now.

Austin (06:45)
Yeah.

yeah.

Kyle Blondin (07:07)
I want to get your take on this. In the NFL, it is absolutely horrible to play on a Thursday night as a contender like the Buffalo Bills did and lose and then you have 10 days for people, let's say even three days leading up to Sunday for people to absolutely shit on you. Absolutely shit on you. So the Buffalo Bills lose to 23-19 to the Houston Texans.

CJ Stroud out, ⁓ Mills was in a quarterback. Allen was sacked eight times. Did you watch, like I know you know the score, did you watch this game at all?

Austin (07:48)
No, sadly I couldn't watch. I was in bed by 930 for work. you know, I caught maybe bit of the start, but that was it. But yeah, to hear that they got sacked, or yeah, eight times and lost that game, was kind of blown away.

Kyle Blondin (08:04)
There was a hit, there was two hits that Josh Allen took. One was not even a sack, he got hit from behind, two yard gain, it looked more like a sack but it was encountered as a sack. He grabs his left wrist. There's two times he grabbed his left wrist where you thought, ⁓ God, his season's over. And then he got up, no problem. He got hit eight times, this Houston defense is deadly.

Austin (08:18)
Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (08:30)
And now there are calls for, Sean McDermott, head coach, be fired? Brady, the offensive coordinator, should they get rid of him? Is Josh Allen overrated? Are the Buffalo Bills, their window has closed to be a potential Super Bowl contender? I have a take on this. What are your thoughts on this idea that the window is closed and they should fire McDermott?

Austin (08:53)
Here's my take, know, two weeks before this, they beat one, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then they beat, before that they beat the Kansas City Chiefs. You know, any good team can lose to a bad team. For me, it's more of a fluke scenario, you know, you're coming off of two big wins, and then you get a flukey loss on a short ⁓ rest week. That's kind of my opinion of the matter. I'd like to hear your thoughts as well.

Kyle Blondin (09:16)
Well, you're to get my thoughts on this is that I think the NFL is such a week to week, ⁓ panic or praise kind of scenario here. And the Buffalo Bills are just at the wrong place at the wrong time losing on that Thursday night. Have they looked great? No. Would I go ahead and fire Sean McDermott at this point? Absolutely not. That's a move I believe that is an off season move where you reboot.

and restart I think if they fade away and they don't at least make the AFC championship which the odds are lower and lower now that you know they're dipping and losing home field advantage ⁓ I see that's when you make the move I don't think you make the move now what do you replace them with I don't think there's an alternate choice out there that is better than what they have this idea that Josh Allen is declined is absolutely stupid ridiculous ⁓ do I do I believe that the bills need to look at

Any scenario where if let's say a Brandon Iuke, whatever reason becomes available, which I don't think will be this year, but if a guy like that becomes available, you jump on him. Yes. Brandon Cooks who got released, who wanted his release from the Northern Saints receiver, he'd be a good fit in Buffalo. They need weapons. They need to make moves, but absolutely a joke that people pile on. And I have a feeling that Josh Allen will take over. I think he,

Austin (10:29)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (10:45)
He won the MVP last year for a reason. I think we both know that when he's on fire, he's unstoppable. Right? He's unstoppable. So I think the demise of the Buffalo Bills is a little too early and a little too much. When I hear these juke like these assholes and jerks online going all in at the Buffalo Bills, window has closed. Don't write them off yet. I, they probably won't come back and knock off the Patriots, but don't rule that out either. So.

Austin (10:52)
Mm-hmm.

you

Kyle Blondin (11:14)
I feel that there's a little more faith in the Bills than I heard out there. And I feel like going through a table right now, just like Bill's mafia, but no, absolutely shit.

Austin (11:16)
And and you know give them

credit give them credit the last three weeks ⁓ You know doing this podcast with you. I've been on top of all the games You know, Houston's been over performing with Mills in that quarterback. I don't know how they're doing it But you know give them some credit as well, you know, they're they're not a good team, but they're a hot team right now So, you know, it's not like ⁓ it's not like the Bills lost to nothing, you know, you're always gonna have the upset wins and that's I

Or a fluke loss than anything you run that game 10 times the the bills when eight out of 10.

Kyle Blondin (11:49)
There you go. So, Bills, don't write them off yet. They're not dead. But let's get a hold of ourselves, ⁓ Story that I thought we would have been a great story to talk about, Joe Burrow was taking reps for the first team for the Bengals. The Bengals have ruled him out. He will not be playing this weekend, but it leaves some excitement potentially on Thursday when they take on the Ravens. Maybe Joey Burrows will be back, but are you excited to see Burrows come back?

and be a part of the season and not write it off and losing for the entire season.

Austin (12:23)
I'm very excited, know, Joe Burrows, the top five quarterback in the NFL when he plays and you know, that's the difference between even wanting to turn the channel to that game, you know, you see, you see Joe burrow on the Cincinnati Bengals and you're like, here's a contender. You get rid of him and they're, they're a bottom five team, you know, it's so it's, you know, he makes such an impact that for me personally, it's literally the difference of wanting to watch the game or not. You know I mean? So, you know, I probably won't be tuning in much, much as the Cincinnati game today, but, you know, I hope.

You know, maybe I hope that they win so next week, Borough has more incentive to play.

Kyle Blondin (12:56)
Yeah, so right now they're three and seven. They take on the Patriots today and we'll talk about that game. But let's say they go three and eight. This is the perfect Cincinnati Bengals story. They'll go three and eight and have six games remaining and they will probably run the table. Go five and one or six and oh and just miss the playoffs. They'll be in the, they'll have some reason, we'll catch on fire and uh, but it will be too little, too late. Now.

One last thing before we get into the games, interesting developments as the season has progressed. I remember at the beginning of the season, we were talking about the LA Rams, and we were talking about Matthew Stafford. The question about Stafford in training camp was his back. He couldn't even participate in preseason. Back was an issue. I thought for sure the back would creep up. Now he's a plus 125 to be the NFL MVP.

Do you think that's justified? Is Matthew Stafford your MVP so far?

Austin (13:53)
100 % he is my MVP. know the last week we kind of really came to the realization Hey this guy he's not even at the top yet You know take a look at him if you're into MVP betting odds I think it's you know, he's a clear-cut favorite the guy You know the guy's done this before he's run the table before and I think I Think there's an amazing chance. He wins MVP. I would put that money down now if you could I think you know goes to

You know, you're not getting plus money after this week, I think.

Kyle Blondin (14:26)
Okay, so right now Matthew Stafford is plus 125. So like you stated, he is plus money, but that may fade as the season gets shorter and shorter to find out who the MVP is. And when I look at who's behind him, there is nobody else is having like a breakaway season. You know what I mean? You know, it used to be ⁓ Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and you're just trying to find out who's gonna win that race.

So Matthew Stafford is number one, Drake May number two, plus 150. He's had a great, good season, but I think that he's the new toy. You know, he's the new toy. I just don't see him as an MVP though. Now.

Austin (15:01)
yeah, you gotta give him credit. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (15:09)
I think if we have a game, if we have a game, OK? Yeah. Jonathan Taylor. So right now, if you like, right now he's creeping, right? He's plus 700. So here's my thought right now. If you like Jonathan Taylor, the only value in this MVP betting race right now, to me, is Jonathan Taylor plus 700.

Austin (15:13)
Let me say, let me make a guess who you're talking about right now. Obviously it's Jonathan Taylor, right? Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (15:38)
Traditionally, it's very hard for a non-quarterback to win this award. you know, the question's not, it's out of the question. It's happened before, a la Adrian Peterson, et cetera. But today is the day against the Kansas City Chiefs where I think it makes or breaks Jonathan Taylor's MVP race. I don't believe they'll perform, we'll get into the Colts and Chiefs, but if he has a game, he has a Jonathan Taylor type of game today.

I think he goes to the head of the line. if betters out there, your value on Jonathan Taylor plus 700 and he goes off today, he's either going to go up the charts and be number one or slightly behind Matthew Stafford or he'll fade away if he doesn't have a game today. Today is that day to make or break Jonathan Taylor. But if you're going to bet that horse, you bet him today before one o'clock and that kickoff and can't arrowhead.

Austin (16:26)
Yeah

Kyle Blondin (16:36)
takes place. So Jonathan Taylor, if he's your boy, now is the only time he either fades away or goes to the front of the line. That's my prediction.

Austin (16:44)
Yeah, I just want to say one more thing, know, Stafford being a plus 125 here. I honestly still think that's amazing value. Uh, you know, if, if say you replace just the name and you turn Matthew Stafford to Josh Allen and Josh Allen was putting up these numbers, I bet you any money, this would be a minus 300 minus 400 line. The only concern I have is if Stafford gets hurt down the stretch. I think he's the law for MVP. If he stays healthy, you know, this guy, this guy can do it. So, but, uh, you know, I've already.

Kyle Blondin (17:09)
Wow.

Austin (17:14)
laced Matthew Stafford enough, so I'll stop. Or should I say Jared Goff enough? No, I'm just kidding for people that are listening.

Kyle Blondin (17:20)
Okay.

And then just to also add to that, the Rams and Eagles are both plus 500 to win the Super Bowl, so the Rams have got some serious backing from the betting public out there. Are they for real? Do you buy that?

Austin (17:30)
Yeah.

I don't necessarily think they're the best team, but they've been performing like the best team. I'll give them the credit there. So I understand why people would think that. And you know what? They're a hell of an entertaining team as well. So.

Kyle Blondin (17:43)
Okay, and then before we get into the games, we're gonna be going through using FanDuel, Point Spreads, not to say that we're sponsoring anyway, it's just the book we have. What book are you currently using? Is there any promotions that you're finding that are valuable to you? So I know you may not be using FanDuel for your personal plays, what book are you using and how's it going?

Austin (18:03)
Mm-hmm.

So I actually do use FanDuel. I'd say FanDuel is my favorite, but I do use three books. I use FanDuel, Bet365, and the ScoreBet. If you're really looking to make an edge and make money, you're going on multiple accounts. All three are probably going to have different odds, probably very close, but you always want to go with the one giving you the best money. So it's good to be on multiple books and taking advantage of the numbers that you see.

Kyle Blondin (18:31)
No, that's fair because right now I'm only using FanDuel and I can't preach enough where you do need multiple books to get the best odds you possibly can of the games you like. right now I'm using FanDuel, I will say there is a lot of positive for FanDuel at the moment. I'm not advocating for same-game parlays and or ⁓ those kind of promotions, but if you like to dabble in those same-game parlays,

They do provide a lot of profit boosts as long as you get to a plus in your betting. So like right now there's a 60 % you can bet up to $300 and have 60 % profit boost. And I might parlay, let's say for example, the Chiefs and let's go with the Jaguar, something like that. Like you know, you have like that where you get the plus and there's some good chance of cash in.

Austin (19:21)
Yeah. It has to be a, yeah.

If I'm not mistaken, it has to be a three leg parlay, but that's still a very great deal. think by far right now of the three beddings, bedding sites that I mentioned, Fandool's by far the best and not only by far the best, but very, very beginner friendly for, you know, the people that want to, maybe you want to do a $5 parlay with a bunch of legs. This is the place to be. Cause you, could easily get double the money sometimes they're offering those kinds of things. So.

Kyle Blondin (19:48)
Yeah.

Austin (19:48)
You

know if you're a new better, FanDuel would be the first place to look.

Kyle Blondin (19:51)
Yeah, this again for you betters out there, same game parlay's are more of a benefit to the book. They want you to take these same game parlay's, that's how they cash in, that's how they make their money. So don't kid yourself, these nice little profit boosts and all that stuff is to the advantage of the fan duels and the draft kings of the world. So it's, I say that, you know, when it's fun, you bet it, but let's not kid ourselves, the advantage is always the book.

All right, and then again, just a couple notes. I know you want to shout out to the Raptors. Great start to the season. Do you want to go there?

Austin (20:26)
Yeah, you

know, I just we don't talk enough about the Raptors on this show, but right now, you know, I'd say they're they're easily the best team in Toronto just as an organization. You know, 11 and five start. I just wanted to mention that Brandon Ingram is looking amazing and the Raptors got me fired up. So just wanted to do a little shout out for the Raptors.

Kyle Blondin (20:47)
Yeah, I feel

like a lot of people, like for whatever reason, you know, off the Blue Jays run, Raptor start, they mention it because it's like a fuck you to the Leafs. I really think it's like a fuck you to the Toronto Maple Leafs who got pasted by the Canadians last night. But I really think that, you know, people like you, like scumbag, I'm just kidding, people like you are mentioning the Raptor start and throwing in the best team in Toronto just to fucking nudge the Leafs. Like, just don't like it.

Austin (20:57)
Yeah. ⁓

Ugh.

Kyle Blondin (21:17)
I don't like it at all.

Austin (21:17)
Hey Raptors are the only team that have given me a championship in my lifetime so it's something I'm never gonna forget and it's always gonna be something that I'm grateful for so.

Kyle Blondin (21:26)
What year did the Leafs last win?

Austin (21:27)
80 years ago 1964 1962 oh oh 1960 I don't know give it to me 1965 1966 or sorry just tell me no 1967 God oh no that all right now I know why you're making me do it all right thanks for that

Kyle Blondin (21:29)
What year?

No, a higher. No, higher.

Go just kill it, say it. No, keep going. No.

Just go one more. You said 66, six, seven.

I guess do it yeah exactly this there you are

alright we get into the games now after that stupidity I just brought up about six seven ⁓ we have the game where it bring me it New England heads in the Cincinnati I get those chills thinking of last year that how many suicide pools I got destroyed because the Patriots walked into ⁓ into Cincinnati lost ⁓

It's right. The Patriots walked into Cincinnati and won with Jacoby Brissette and the Bengals destroyed many, including mine, our survivor pools. So the Patriots were seven point favorites. I think with the news that Burrow was not coming back, pumped it up to seven and a half. So the Patriots are seven and a half, the over under 50 and a half. What do you like here?

Austin (22:48)
You know what? I think you got to ride with the Patriots all day. You know, the Cincinnati the Cincinnati defense is just Swiss cheese and you know say ⁓ There is some uncertainty around the Patriots, but this is a legit offense, you know, even if you don't believe in them It's hard to make an argument that they're not at minimally at least You know the 10th best offense in football and to go up against the worst defense. I think they're just gonna keep putting up points You know, I think they win by 10 to 14 here. So I'm definitely rolling with the seven and a half you said right

Kyle Blondin (23:17)
Seven and a half, yep.

Austin (23:18)
Yep, seven and a half.

And then, ⁓ you know what? I think since he struggles to score, so I'm going to say I'm going to take the under.

Kyle Blondin (23:26)
Okay, I took the over for the sake of the same thing as a Cincinnati defense is absolutely horrid. I'm trying to think of a comparison. How would you sum up to ⁓ a non football person? How the Cincinnati Bengals performance, sorry, how the Cincinnati D performs? I was trying to think of a good analogy.

Austin (23:44)
⁓

like if I'm saying one word, I'll say weak, you know, they get, we talked about last week how there's three, you know, three big defenses to target and, ⁓ actually, I don't know yet. No, no, yeah. The Cincinnati Bengals are one of those defenses you even targeted fantasy. it's, you know, their offense is missing their, their best weapon and Joe burrow by, by a mile or not a mile. Obviously you got your March ace there. but I just, it's a team that's hard to watch.

It's a team that's hard to watch and you know the Patriots, this ⁓ is a destruction spot for the Patriots.

Kyle Blondin (24:19)
So would it be fair to say if I said that the Cincinnati D is comparable to a senior citizens diaper, it leaks very bad. It says there's a lot of leakage going on. Okay, so I'm going to take the Patriots cover as well. I'll take you over. got the under. I'm also throwing in a prop here with, I know Ramon Drey Stevenson is back. So the Patriots backfield is going to have a little more depth, but I think Trevion Henderson is 52 and a half over under for rushing yards.

Austin (24:25)
Yeah, it's it's pretty bad

Kyle Blondin (24:48)
is still low. think that it's going to go over and I believe that at this point in the way that Trevion Henderson has played over last few games that they are going to strategize and game plan to put the ball in the hands of Trevion Henderson and make sure that he gets the touches and explosive plays and I think he'll at least get 70-80 yards in this game in my opinion. So I take the over 52 and a half rushing yards minus 114. All right then we have Pittsburgh Steelers heading into Chicago.

These Bears are two and a half point favorites the over under here is forty six and a half and moved up from forty four and a half from a couple days ago now the story here and we don't have clarity just yet is Aaron Rodgers gonna play I'd haven't seen if he's been ruled out he has a left wrist issue ⁓ Is Mason Rudolph gonna be in there? So we're making these plays based on not knowing a hundred percent who's gonna be quarterbacking for the Pittsburgh Steelers I'll let you take a take on this

Austin (25:48)
Yeah, so you know if Aaron Rodgers is out today, we're uncertain, but you know Mason Rudolph is very familiar with the system I think you know, he's a good fill-in

You know, obviously I would want a healthy Rodgers over him, but would I want an injured Rodgers over him? I'm not sure. So I don't really mind which either way this way goes. You guys know I've been big on the Bears this season. You know, I've been a big believer in the Bears, but I just think this is even though, even though the Steelers are on the road and you know, I think they're a way better home team. You know, I think, you know, Steelers, this is a, this is a really tough game, but I'm going with the Steelers today with the, with the points.

⁓ and sorry that over that over and under total was

Kyle Blondin (26:28)
It's moved from 44 and a half to 46 and a half.

Austin (26:32)
Yeah. wow. That's a big movement. That you know what? That will be the difference between me taking the under that movement in that line because it was two points less. I'd be going the other way.

Kyle Blondin (26:40)
So which way you going?

Austin (26:42)
I'm going with the, sorry, with the under.

Kyle Blondin (26:45)
Okay, I had the under at 44 and a half and now 46 and a half I pretty much locked into that and I do think that the Steelers can interchange Mason Rudolph in there as you stated he's very familiar with this offense very familiar with this team after spending some time in Tennessee last year, but you know Mason Rudolph is a Pittsburgh Steeler. Let's take the Steelers to cover I don't think I don't have as much faith as you do in regards to the Bears. So I'll take the Steelers and I'll take Mike Tomlin to out duel Ben Johnson on this one.

Austin (27:15)
I just want to make it clear, I have faith in the Bears offense. Their defense still needs a lot of work. And also, just a side bet, and I haven't looked at the line, but it's been a few weeks and I got a feeling that DK Metcalfe's gonna get in the end zone if anybody's looking for a touchdown bet this week. Yeah, sure, sure. Just a hunch.

Kyle Blondin (27:30)
let's look at what it is to see touchdown so you're always thinking

all right so let's ⁓ receiving receiving

Austin (27:39)
If it's plus

money, take it. That's what I'll say.

Kyle Blondin (27:42)
TD score prop let's see DK Mac have is plus 150 anytime plus 850 for sorry he's plus 150 anytime plus 900 for first plus 850 for last so you like that 150

Austin (27:56)
Yeah, I'm talking about anytime. that's

honestly, I think that's great value because I would have done it at plus 100. So to get it at plus 150, I'm ⁓ licking my chops.

Kyle Blondin (28:06)
Okay, I'm gonna write this down so we can hold you accountable for this, okay?

Austin (28:08)
Sounds

good. Add it to my bet total next week. I'm more than happy.

Kyle Blondin (28:12)
Okay, anytime, plus 150, all right.

you're down plus 150. All right, so now a game that shouldn't be much of a contest. The Baltimore Ravens are 13 and a half point favorites at home. we're going to, is a string of big lines that we're going to talk about. 13 and a half point favorites minus one 14 over the New York football jets who are going to start Tyrod Taylor today. The over under is 44 and a half.

Austin (28:16)
You

Kyle Blondin (28:42)
Do you believe that the Jets can come in here and upset the Baltimore Ravens? ⁓

Austin (28:47)
upset hell no but

but ⁓ to you know play within those 13 and a half points i'm gonna say honestly you know baltimore's come back and they're winning these games but they're not blowing anybody out i don't even know if they've won by double digits since lamar jackson's come back and you know obviously the the jets are kind of you know they're a little pathetic but you know maybe they're but this week i think they're a 10 10 loss ⁓ 10 loss 10 point loss team so you know i'm gonna go with that plus

Kyle Blondin (29:06)
Little pathetic.

Austin (29:16)
those plus points today.

Kyle Blondin (29:17)
Okay I also went with the plus points. just do believe that Tyra Taylor is sufficient enough to keep this game at least manageable and I don't see the Ravens crushing anybody. I think they run the hell out of the ball today and get the victory and move on. So I kind of see the things the way you're doing. Also the over under I think will be over 44 and a half points. think there's gonna be some points scored here. ⁓

Austin (29:27)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (29:46)
So what do think about the over-under?

Austin (29:47)
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the over as well.

Kyle Blondin (29:50)
Okay. All right. We're to move on. One of, ⁓ now funny here is like, some of our, you know, mutual people we know are left in a survivor pool and their pick is going to be Seattle today. So Seattle heads into Tennessee. They were 13 and a half point fair. It's down to 12 and a half Seahawks. Wow. Your boy Sam Dardle head. I wanted to point this out. I wanted to call you out on this cause you, he had what three interception, four interceptions last week against the Rams. He not so good when it.

Austin (30:11)
⁓ this one hurts.

Kyle Blondin (30:18)
when it came crunch time and pressure and ⁓ the spotlight was on he did not look good which I expected but your boy is he still your boy?

Austin (30:28)
he's still my boy i still have a lot of faith in him you know i chalk this up to one bad game you know what the four picks out of the way now you know and ⁓ don't throw them later he and the and he's ⁓ you know i honestly i think honestly ⁓ he comes i think he comes out this week and he comes back in a big way you know ⁓ before before this week he had a crazy game with like a ninety percent completion rate and i think against the tennessee titans

Kyle Blondin (30:41)
It's not the flu, yeah.

Austin (30:57)
Obviously I'm not predicting a 90 % completion rate, but I think it's going to be ⁓ back up there to being really really good and You know, I think he's going to come out hungry today. So, you know, even though it's a ton of points You know, I actually think the Seahawks really beat up on ⁓ the Titans today and they they cover that spread

Kyle Blondin (31:17)
Yeah, there's no way in my life I'm going to ever, ever take this Tennessee Titan team. I'm sorry. Like, I mean, we looked at, talked about the Jets covering, which is scary enough that we had actually put our names behind the Jets, but this Tennessee Titan team is absolutely trash right now. ⁓ They're going through an organizational situation where they obviously fired their head coach and they got Mike McCoy in there as the interim coach and really.

Thinking where do I take this team? How do I not ruin Cam Ward our first overall pick which seems like they're doing I don't know why this spread came down and others talks about Kenneth Walker running back for the Seahawks being a little banged up I also like the Seahawks to cover the 12 and a half I would have cut I would have said they would have covered 13 and a half which the line originally was Over under 40 and a half. I think that it's a little that lines a little too low usually the Seahawks do a good job when they're taking on inferior teams

just smashing these teams, right? You see what they did to the Saints at home. So I think the smashing is going to happen here. And I think the Seahawks themselves could put a 40 points. So 40 and 1.5, I'll take the over. What do you think about the over-under on this?

Austin (32:15)
Yep.

Yeah, give me the over as well. Like you said, they're going to really beat up on them. just, guess it comes down to, ⁓ you know, Tennessee, are they going to be able to put up some points today? And that's why I'd be more comfortable in the covering of the spread over the total today. But, that's the way I'm to go with the over. So.

Kyle Blondin (32:44)
Yeah, absolute

punching bag is gonna be the Tennessee Titans. Actually, it's gonna be a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. That's what's gonna happen. ⁓ Giants, also 12 and a half point dogs heading to Detroit to take on the Lions, who kind of got jobbed against the Eagles last week. I don't know if you watched any of that game, but they themselves missed many opportunities on fourth downs. It's Dan Campbell last square. You know, we're fourth in goal.

Austin (32:47)
Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (33:14)
yeah we're going for it and they didn't hit too much goth was a bit off but there was a controversial pass interference late in that game where they would have got the ball back and had the opportunity to march down the field so they kind of got job there at the end ⁓ this lions team when you think they're gonna take off they kind of take a step back a few weeks ago they lose it home against the vikings which didn't see coming and then you know

Austin (33:33)
you

Kyle Blondin (33:40)
Held in there with Philadelphia, but they could have won this game if they executed some plays and now they're at home against the Giants who are gonna start Jameson Winston once again Jack Jackson dart out still with a concussion Detroit 12 and a half. I'm gonna take the Giants to cover. I think they did enough against the bear Last week with how they play last week Who do the Giants have they kept it close for a while?

Austin (34:07)
I can't, I'm blanking on that.

Kyle Blondin (34:08)
My god, come on dry blank

here cuz what? We should be up to speed here on this the god damn it to week 11 the Giants lost. Okay, Green Bay Green Bay won by a touchdown like in at MetLife Stadium Winston I think has two good games in them before he falls off the rails. So this is game two I think they'll keep it close even though it's on the road ⁓ And I don't think the Lions blow them out

I think this game will go under 50 and a half. It moved up from 49 and a half to 50 and a half. But what do you think? So I got Giants covered and I think the under. So what do you think?

Austin (34:43)
⁓ honestly i

think the lines are gonna absolutely crushed them and not only that just ⁓ you know i want to one thing i would really like to look on this game is a better is up montgomery's totals you know it's these games where i think they're gonna run all over the giants they're gonna lead by a lot and these are the games were montgomery's gonna get a lot of usage so i'd be looking at montgomery's those are not really coming with anything specific here just a little on note and also you know i think the the lines cut up

Honestly, I think the Lions are gonna put up 40 points today. So obviously I got to put up ⁓ The total, know, I don't think ⁓ the Giants will be useless either either. I think they'll put up 17 to 21 ⁓ so Give me give me the Lions all day And also I want to mention that Lions are known for being a team statistically that coming off a loss they come back and destroy teams so Give me the Lions all day. I think it's gonna be a massacre

Kyle Blondin (35:15)
Wow.

Are you like money?

Austin (35:40)
And I

think Montgomery and Gibbs both, you know, easily both over 80 yards, maybe both over 100. Yeah. Total yards. Yeah, yeah, total yards, total yards.

Kyle Blondin (35:47)
Really, total yards? Because Montgomery right now is rushing yards are 55 and a half.

And so 55 and a half for Montgomery just rushing 68 and a half.

Austin (35:54)
Yeah, let's say, here's

what I'll say, 200 combined yards between the two of them easily. That's what I think is gonna happen today. And that would be definitely a lot over the predicted total.

Kyle Blondin (36:04)
Hmm, okay. All right. Well, we'll see what happens. Just also note for the Lions, Sam Laporta is out. Looks like he's done for the season. That's a big loss. That's a big loss. Like that's a guy you want in January in the playoffs for sure, you know.

Austin (36:14)
Yep. Yep. That's a big loss. Yeah.

for sure,

you know he's recognized as easily a top three tight end in the league.

Kyle Blondin (36:26)
Yep. Alright, we got a pretty interesting matchup. Minnesota Vikings take on their divisional foes heading into Green Bay. Green Bay is a six and a half point favorite. Yeah, well, for some reason I think the Minnesota Vikings show up when you don't think they will. Just like we talked about showing up in Detroit. I think they come in and cover here. Like Josh Jacobs is banged up.

For the Packers, don't even if he's playing or not. Let's just go in to see if he's on the line here. But he's not feeling too good. Let's make sure he's got a line if he has... No, I think he's out. Josh Jacobs might be out. There's no line for him. I know he was questionable. So that's a big loss for them. I like the over 41 and a half and I like the Vikings to cover. Aaron Jones also has been a go-to and I like his total yards over 72 and a half, passing and receiving and rushing.

What's your take on this one?

Austin (37:25)
You know, I'm not I've been really low on the Vikings this year as you guys have known from the last three weeks I kind of been shitting on the Vikings and you know Green Bay I view them as like a playoff team But they're they're so beat up right now that I think I'm gonna gonna go with you You know, it could be a victory by three points by Green Bay today, but I like the six and a half You know, I think it's gonna be a close game. I think it honestly could go either way as well ⁓ And so yeah, me the Vikings not really this is not my

happiest bad of the day but all take the Vikings and the over was did you say forty nine half sorry forty one half you have given over on that

Kyle Blondin (38:00)
41 and a half.

Okay, it's locked in. Yeah, there's also talk that Minnesota might be panicking a little bit, that they kind of went all in with JJ McCarthy as a quarterback, you know, in the first round two years ago, and maybe, you know, buyer's remorse, maybe not feeling it. What do you think?

Austin (38:05)
Locked in. Let's go.

Yeah.

I don't know if you saw last week. Did you see Justin Jefferson's crash out as well? You never see him like that. But yeah, he actually like he took his helmet. pretty sure he like slammed his helmet in frustration and stuff like that. ⁓ you know, honestly, that's another reason why I think they are going to come back. You know, they got all these weapons. It's just I really think right now it comes down to quarterback play. And I don't know if they're going to fix the problem, but can they make the problem better? You know, I think maybe there's a chance they make it.

Kyle Blondin (38:28)
No, I didn't

Austin (38:51)
good enough to beat Green Bay this week. we'll really have to see. This is a big question mark for me, not a confident bet, but definitely one I'll be tuning into to see what happens.

Kyle Blondin (39:01)
Yeah, if J.J. McCarthy wants to be successful, you gotta put the ball in Jefferson's hands as many times as possible.

Austin (39:05)
Yeah. Yeah.

And even, you know, Addison, Addison's a very respectable number two receiver for a team. And I know he's gotten like very, very little uses this year, you know, in fantasy, you can't even start them on your teams, which is just insane. So, you know, give us, give us some average quarterback play and the Vikings are a legit team.

Kyle Blondin (39:25)
Yeah, I mean what what that's why I like the receiving rushing total over 72 and half for Aaron Jones. If you cannot find Jefferson, you check down Aaron Jones. He can make things happen against his former team. The Packers. ⁓

Austin (39:38)
would really like Jefferson totals today because I think they're going to be... Yeah, no. It's a... You know what? Yeah, I like Jefferson totals today. If it's anything over 90 yards, ⁓ I would take that because I think he either gets to 100 or he's right there in the 90s.

Kyle Blondin (39:55)
really okay let's see what he has then this let's take a look

Austin (39:56)
Yeah. Let's take a look. You can put me down. Let's

see. Depending on what it is, I'll make it another official bet as well.

Kyle Blondin (40:03)
Well,

I think you'll like this. Justin Jefferson, receiving yards, 63 and a half.

Austin (40:06)
Let's hear it.

take that all day. That's crazy. I don't understand. How does that make any sense? I would say, I would say the over and under should be at least 85 yards. So yeah, give me that. That's a, that's a crazy find on live air. That is crazy. Take that. You know, you can't tell me he's having under 70 yards today. That's just insane. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (40:15)
I didn't even look at that. didn't even...

Wow,

the betting community has little faith in J.J. McCarthy for sure. Holy cow, that's way too low for a guy like Justin Jefferson. ⁓ you're new boy. All right, so we move on to maybe the game of the one o'clock hour. It's hard to think of another game in the one o'clock hour that beats this one. We have the Indianapolis Colts, the AFC Juggernaut.

Austin (40:37)
Yeah.

Hey, all I'm saying with Darrell that total might have been a hundred. That's all I'm gonna say. That's all I'm gonna say ⁓

Kyle Blondin (40:59)
heading into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs that are hanging on. Lost in Denver last week. They're being written off again. I think the Kansas City Chiefs are being written off a little too early. They are three and a half point favorites minus 104. This game has a 49 and a half over under. I'll let you go first. Go ahead.

Austin (41:21)
Yeah, so you know, Kansas City Chiefs are one of those teams where you just like, have respect for them. You know what I mean? You know, I still view Mahomes as the number one quarterback in the league. ⁓ It almost feels like a trap game on the side of the Colts. Like it looks like good money, you know, there's some juicy money there for a team that's been so good. Eight and two team, I think they are something like that. But, ⁓ you know, I can't, I just can't bring myself to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs.

I'd be a lot more comfortable if this was three instead of three and a half so I get my money back there if it's a game for a field goal. But I gotta still stay with the Kansas City Chiefs today. Definitely the game of the one o'clock hour, gonna be tuning into this one. ⁓ But give me the Kansas City Chiefs just based on purely respect alone.

Kyle Blondin (42:04)
What about 49 and a half, what do like there?

Austin (42:07)
Give me the, give me an under. Yeah. Give me an under, yep.

Kyle Blondin (42:09)
Under ⁓ underwear. Get it.

Alright so you like the cheap still cover the three and half.

Austin (42:16)
Yes. I...

I wouldn't say I like it, but that's the way that I'm going.

Kyle Blondin (42:20)
Alright, here's my take on this. I think we talked about the MVP race earlier. This is either a Jonathan Taylor breakout, my god, I'm going to be the lead candidate here for MVP. I'm going to set my authority here in this game and tear up the Chiefs D, because the respectability, if you tore up this D, will put him on another level. So that could happen, but I do believe at some point the Kansas City Chiefs draw a line in the sand, they go on a run.

They, I don't think they necessarily need to win the division to make a run in the playoffs. They just need to make sure they're there and Patty Mahomes can win anywhere in my opinion. So he is the best quarterback in football. I don't think there's a question. I think we're overexposed with Patrick Mahomes. So everybody like kind of shits on him and doesn't want to see him move forward versus like respecting the fact that he is the man. I think it happens here. I think they covered three and a half. This is where the dark side of Daniel Jones comes out. This is where I think

We're going to see the situation where, yeah, that's that's Daniel Jones. I have a prediction here that there'll be many times where he turns the ball over, strip sacked, he's caught for bad sacks, he's just loose with the ball. I just see this as a Daniel Jones kind of like, my God, I remember it's Daniel Jones kind of scenario. And I do believe his passing yards.

Austin (43:40)
Okay.

Kyle Blondin (43:49)
will go under 241 and a half. I think he'll be under duress the whole game. I don't think he'll have an opportunity to set up as much as you think he will. So let's take the Chiefs, cover three and a half. I think this game will be under the 49 and a half. And Daniel Jones passing yards under 241 and a half. It's gonna be an ugly, my God, I forgot I have Daniel Jones as my quarterback situation. What do think of that? Like that?

Austin (43:54)
Thank you.

Yeah, I like his unders as well.

Kyle Blondin (44:17)
Okay. And we have Shador Sanders in the four o'clock hour opens up his first career start. He came in last week in relief after, you know, what's his name? Got concussed the other rookie quarterback. I just lost my train of thought. Sorry. But Shador Sanders makes his first start. The Vegas Raiders who are an absolute shit show are three and a half point favorite over the Cleveland Browns. What do think the over under is in this game?

Austin (44:47)
I'll say the over and under is, uh, give me 41 and a half. 36 and a half. Oh, that's brutal.

Kyle Blondin (44:56)
36.5. 36.5. There is

zero faith that this game will be at all entertaining based on the betting line here. So the Browns, 3.5 point dogs, Shradur Sanders. What do you think his over-under and passing yards is? Shradur Sanders.

Austin (45:12)
170?

Kyle Blondin (45:14)
158 and 1 half. 158 and 1 half. There is no respect at all for this Browns team, for this quarterback, Shadour Sanders, the son of Deion Sanders, Hall of Famer, current coach of the Colorado Buffalos in the NCAA football. What's your take on this one?

Austin (45:16)
Damn.

Yeah.

I know this is a hard one. I think this one comes down to ⁓ defense and offense. know, Browns, you know, they have like Miles Garrett. You could argue like if you were a Browns fan and you argue to me like, Miles Garrett is the best defensive player in football. I think you'd be wrong, but I think you'd at least have an argument to make there. You know, it's the Browns have a decent defense and, ⁓ you know, I think the Raiders have a decent offense. I think they're all lines really shitty right now. ⁓

but I'm gonna go with the defense since I'm getting the three and a half points. Give me the Browns, know, a couple of turnovers today against Gino, you know, rookie quarterback, a lot of uncertainty there. It's not a confident bet, but that's the way I'm gonna go. And you know, I'm gonna, I'm gonna take that over just because that total is so low. You know, it's, it's, it's hard not to take a total like that. My prediction was 41 and a half. So I think it gets right around there. Can't really justify it going the other way now. ⁓ Give me those.

Kyle Blondin (46:26)
Yeah, I'll tell you what, if this podcast is called the Overrated Experience because we like overs and I bypass a 36 and a half over under and take the under, then we're going brand change, name change. And that's not gonna happen.

Austin (46:39)
Yeah,

weird call, but I think what's gonna happen in this game is, you know, there won't be a lot of offense, but there'll be turnovers to set up the teams in good offensive position. I think for some reason that's what's gonna happen. And I think you easily get that total. Maybe not easily, but I think you get that total.

Kyle Blondin (46:57)
Yeah, I'll tell you, I'm gonna take the over for sure. Also, potentially tease it where you get six points off and make it 30 and a half, which I think is even better, obviously. So, I'm also gonna take the Browns to cover. A guy like Miles, the Cleveland D is lights out. Better at home they are the road. But watching the Vegas Raiders on offense, I gotta believe that they're licking their chops to kind of smash Geno Smith in that offensive line. This team is disgusting.

Austin (47:04)
yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (47:27)
I don't know if you watched any this against the Cowboys. ⁓ They're off, they're just bad. They're just bad. And it's bad from on the field to off the field. I don't even think that the planning coming in with Pete Carroll, when we look back on Pete Carroll, we're gonna remember him from his USC days where he's winning national championships to the Seattle Seahawks where he won a Super Bowl, got to two Super Bowls. But it's gonna, yeah, I remember he coached the Raiders.

Austin (47:34)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (47:56)
There's nothing gonna be remembered here. It's gonna fade away. This is an absolutely shit organization at the moment. So I'd like to browns to cover three and a half and I'll take Chidor Sanders over 158 and a half passing yards.

Austin (48:09)
I

just curious if you agree with me if somebody was dying on that hill that miles Garrett was the best offensive player football would you call that person crazy and also second question would you consider him top three defensive player.

Kyle Blondin (48:22)
would tell the person to shut the fuck up and don't bring that up. I'm just kidding. ⁓ When you say it, when you're talking about it, I'm thinking, yeah, would I be ready to call him the number one guy? I was like, I don't know if I am, but I was kind of going through my head. else is out there? it TJ Watt? it, ⁓ like, who do you pick as the, if you were starting a team today and had to win a game, who's the number one defensive player you bring to your team?

Austin (48:24)
Jesus!

Yeah, honestly, I'm thinking like Mika Parsons, know, Mika Parsons is he could be the biggest difference maker, in my opinion. But, you know, after that, might be Miles Garrett number two. So, you know, I wouldn't call that person crazy just because we're one rank off. know what I mean? You know what? And then you got the guy, ⁓ Sir Tan from Denver, you know, just, you know, he could easily be considered the two guy, too. But I'll probably put those three guys as the best defensive players in football at the moment, personally.

Kyle Blondin (48:47)
Okay, yeah.

Okay, well, that's a good argument.

Okay. All right. We're to move on to a game that I know you will dedicate your time to and that's the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Arizona Cardinals here. I'm sure that that will, uh, you'll make sure you exclusively watch this one. The Jaguars are two and a half point favorites coming off a smashing, which I didn't see coming against the Chargers. They smoked them and the Cardinals are fading away. They're insignificant. This is like such an insignificant, uh, team right now. A Jacoby Brissette was a nice story for a bit.

Austin (49:22)
Hahaha

Mm.

Kyle Blondin (49:44)
But really they're dead on arrival and two and a half point dogs here forty seven and a half ⁓ I like the Jaguars to cover Do I love it? No, because they they are you can't predict what this Jaguars team does They look great against the charges, but they probably look shit today against the team They should easily roll over so I like them to cover the two and a half, but I cringe as I make that pick

Austin (49:54)
Yep.

Kyle Blondin (50:10)
And I like the under 47 and a half. I don't see this as a high scoring game. What are your thoughts here?

Austin (50:14)
Yeah, I have to take the Jaguars. I've been really low on them this year. But you know, going into the year, I would have thought maybe they're like a borderline wild card team. To see them beat up on the Chargers honestly was a big surprise for me too. And you know, two and a half ⁓ doesn't seem like a lot for them to go get. So give me the Chargers ⁓ minus two and a half. I just want to give one extremely bright spot to the Cardinals. Trey McBride. McBride.

Easily right now the number one foot tight end in football, know, I was looking at his numbers yesterday And I was kind of disbelief, know in fantasy for like three weeks in a row. He's almost at 30 points I'm like this guy This guy's special. Maybe that's why they're competing in these games You know, they got the best tight end in football right now But other than that, you know, I don't enjoy watching the Cardinals I don't really enjoy watching Jacksonville either Jacksonville either but give me Jacksonville

Kyle Blondin (51:09)
47 and half, what do like there?

Austin (51:11)
⁓ Give me the under. Give me the under. I think it's gonna be a lower scoring game. Even after Jacksonville went out and gassed. Give me the under.

Kyle Blondin (51:21)
Okay, so the question now is would you exclusively in the four o'clock window watch that Jacksonville Arizona game or decide hey let me watch that Atlanta New Orleans game. That's got a lot riding on there. This is like insignificant like I have to play this game kind of game. The Saints are one and a half point favorites over the Falcons who Pennex is done for the year. Kirk Cousins is in there. What's your take on this one?

Austin (51:31)
Yeah!

Hmm.

You know, I think I'm kind of surprised that Atlanta is not the favorite here I'm not saying they should be a heavy favorite maybe even a point and a half favorite But I think they should be the favorite here and obviously for that reason I got to go in their direction You know, Kirk Cousins has been terrible his last handful of performances But I've never been a Kirk Cousins hater per se, you know, if you're calling him a quarterback I think Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback or a good backup. Sorry So yeah, give me

Give me the Falcons today. Yeah, yes.

Kyle Blondin (52:18)
You want the Falcons today?

I'm doing that too. Anyway, I forgot to mention the previous game. Brian Thomas Jr., receiver for the Jaguars, is out. Also Marvin Harrison Jr., with an appendectomy, is out another week for the Cardinals. Just something to note. Drake London for the Falcons is out. So that's a big loss for them. That's a big deal. ⁓ Tyler Schloell, or Schu, what the hell's his name is, the Saints quarterback there. He's been pretty solid, I would say. ⁓

Austin (52:31)
Hmm.

That's a big deal. That is a big deal. Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (52:46)
I'm gonna say the scene to win this. No, I'm gonna change my vote. Screw this. I'm gonna change it. I'm going off on a...

Austin (52:49)
Really? Wow. Yeah, the

Saints, I'm not, I wouldn't be surprised either way this goes. You know, there's a reason why the line is so close. ⁓ but you know, I want to believe that Atlanta can perform with a couple of their key guys here. I, I think they should be the, ⁓ they should be the favorite here, my opinion, but that's just me.

Kyle Blondin (53:05)
I let

Well Atlanta is an organization right now is pretty fucked because the fact is they decided to go all in while they had Kirk Cousins to get Michael Pennex Jr. Now he has another ACL issue. So this guy's had multiple ACL issues. Can I move forward with Michael Pennex as my franchise quarterback for the next four to five years? Or if I finish so shit this year with my record, do I start thinking franchise quarterback first round again? They're in a tough spot.

Austin (53:32)
Yeah.

Kyle Blondin (53:39)
Raheem Morris, like I don't get, like I put some coaches into that recycle bin kind of coach and Raheem Morris is that guy. He sucked in Tampa Bay. Raheem Morris is a coordinator. He's not a head coach. You'll see him done, cooked. He'll be fired at the end of the year. And when they get serious about a coach, then maybe they will take, they look at the talent they have. You know what I mean? Like.

Austin (53:39)
Yeah.

Yeah, they have a lot

of talent.

Kyle Blondin (54:05)
They

have lot of talent. Like you should be at least 500 with B. John Robinson alone.

Austin (54:09)
Yeah, B-genre, yeah, they got a lot of talent there. Even Kyle Pitts, know, not the worst Titan in the world. Yeah, I'm surprised they are constantly underperforming of late. But I'm giving them a chance this week, so.

Kyle Blondin (54:22)
get they lose they

lose back to back or season series against the Carolina Panthers piss away a lead last week and lose and overtime and I don't know if you've seen the way overtime played out. Atlanta gets the ball first drop ball penalty like and they got a punt in Carolina marches down the field and quickly get into

like no brainer field goal position because that Atlanta defense is absolutely shit. It's just, just a disgusting display of an organization right now.

Austin (54:53)
Yeah. But if,

if, if they can't beat the Saints today, then they're not the team that I thought straight up. So, you know, we'll be back here next week and we'll see if they really are just a complete loss of a team. If you, you're, you're coming in as first of all, you're already coming in as the underdog against the Saints. I don't know how that's possible, but if they actually lose this, ⁓ you know, all, all faith will be gone.

Kyle Blondin (55:17)
Okay over under is 39 and a half, what do like this?

Austin (55:20)
Give me the over on that, that's kind of low.

Kyle Blondin (55:21)
Okay,

so here's my prediction. Mark it down. It's not a betting line. If the Saints beat the Falcons today, where he Morris is relieved of his duties. Watch that head coach Falcons is let go today or tomorrow. But today's it. I think it happens after this game if they lose. One of the bigger games, probably the only game that you go to your way to watch in the four o'clock hour with Dallas Cowboys hosting the Eagles.

Austin (55:35)
Yeah, I agree with that. think that happens too.

Kyle Blondin (55:51)
They opened up as a three and a half point dog, but now it's gone to three points So field goal and the over under forty seven and a half Cowboys coming off a big victory over the LA Las Vegas Raiders Eagles coming off a big victory over the Lions I Am going to take the Cowboys in this one. I have not been overly impressed with the Eagles What's impressive about the Eagles is their defense is you know, very annoying. I find their

And that's a compliment. They're a very annoying defense that even a guy like Jared Goff couldn't get comfortable. And that's the kind of way they play football, which is very effective. We've seen that in the Super Bowl. But I think for some reason, there's no reason why the Cowboys should win this game. But maybe it's selfish that the Cowboys win so that they head into Thursday on the Thanksgiving game to take on... Fuck, forgot. Did they take the Chiefs on Thursday? Hold on, let's double check. One second.

Come on, what is going on? week 13. Yeah, Dallas hosts the Chiefs on Thursday, so that'd be a wicked game, but I want the Cowboys to win. So this is more of a want for the Cowboys to cover and win this game outright, and I like this game to go over 47 and a half. It's a shit show in Jerry's world. When you get onto that field, I think the Eagles will open it up. If the Cowboys open up, it'll be chaos. It's gonna be over 47 and a half. We're gonna get some points. We're gonna make some money. What do you say, you?

Austin (56:58)
Yeah.

You know I'm going I'm going the other way on both both bets. I'm going the other way on both bets I think the Eagles you know I just yeah I just think you know the I look at the Eagles and maybe they're not you know winning games in a sexy way But they always have enough to get it done. You know it's a pretty close total here. I'm surprised. It's not like five and a half ⁓ You know the Phillies defense is just so good. I got to think they force a couple turnovers today

Kyle Blondin (57:19)
Duh!

You... The flating.

Austin (57:45)
⁓ Give me those bets.

Kyle Blondin (57:48)
So I've got them down so we look at this game a little differently, but you're totally right There's not a team of football that I could say that the Eagles matchup Homer road or at home that they can't beat like they could be the best team most talented team in the NFL But they've turned into the worst visual Watching team in my opinion. It's just hard very hard to watch the Eagles the way they play right now

Austin (58:10)
Yeah.

You know what the perfect example is for me? It's the Kansas City Chiefs last year. know, the Kansas City Chiefs were like barely winning games, but you know, they ended up making it all the way to the Super Bowl. And then that's kind of when the wheels like really fell off in a way. But they kind of remind me of that team where it's like, you know, they've kind of fallen out of the glory, but they're still the best. And you know, they're even this game, like I don't think they're going to even them being the best team, you know,

You you might think like all that i'm gonna think they're gonna beat up on the cowboys i think they're gonna win by like six i think they're gonna win by seven. You know so i don't think they're gonna get this done in a destruction way where i think based on where philly ranks and ⁓ the cowboys rank it's a big disparity but ⁓ i think they cover the spread. ⁓

Kyle Blondin (59:02)
That's a fair play. It's just so hard to watch this team and I scratch my head when I watch this offense. Like how are they winning? Like how are they getting it done? They'll have a big player too. Explosive, their defense will come up big, there'll be a turnover. Man, it's really hard to watch this offense and ⁓ there's no flow whatsoever, but they get the job done. So I can't argue with that. At the end of the day, you win. That's it. That's the measurement. That's the bar.

Austin (59:11)
Mm-hmm.

the

Kyle Blondin (59:30)
So that's okay. look at things differently. So maybe we'll have a side bet. I'll get the Cowboys and Eagles. Okay. How about that? All right. ⁓ Now we look at the Sunday nighter, which is a pretty good matchup. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the LA Rams. ⁓ Rams opened up a six and a half point favorite. It's up to seven. There's over under 49 and a half. The bucks themselves, man, their stock has kind of gone down to me. Some of their performances of late, they're not really a threat. So

Austin (59:35)
Okay.

Kyle Blondin (59:59)
I'm not surprised this line went up to seven. This is the matchup of Baker who heads to LA and you kind of look at Baker's career being rejuvenated with that short time ending the season a couple years ago when he joined the Rams, basically got off the plane, started one, ⁓ which was, I watched that game, it was an amazing performance, really put Baker back on the map. And now obviously we look at Baker and have high regard for him and the way he plays.

and wouldn't mind having Baker as our quarterback if we started a team today. He's a go-getter. Spucks team needs a big game here. They need a actually turn of events kind of game. I don't know if they're gonna get it. I'm gonna say they cover against the Rams. It's gonna be a little tighter. And this game, I'm gonna say over, but I'm not too confident on that. And I see the combined passing yards between Stafford and Mayfield. I just don't know why. I just think it's gonna be 550.

Austin (1:00:31)
Hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Kyle Blondin (1:00:57)
these

pieces passing arts here what do you what your thoughts on this game

Austin (1:01:00)
Yeah, honestly, I... Kind of the opposite of last game. I agree with you on literally everything there. Literally, I don't... I think it's gonna play out the exact same way. I don't have much words. You covered exactly what I wanted to say. you know, you guys know that I'm a big Bucs believer. I might not have the Buc curtains today and I've been a little low on them lately. But, you know, I think this is one of those games, kind of a feeling of a prediction.

Kyle Blondin (1:01:13)
Well, me, yeah, I'm okay.

Austin (1:01:29)
But it's either comes down to the fourth quarter in a tie game or even overtime. So I think it's going to be a, you know, a three point winner, six point win. So that, that those seven extra points give me that big safety cushion that I want. ⁓ you know, LA has been phenomenal. Don't get me wrong. And, I also think, yeah, I think, a lot of points are put up this game. You know, the Buccaneers get Chris Godwin back today and to put a weapon like Chris Godwin in the hands of Baker Mayfield is no joke. you know, he might not be their, he might not be their Evans, their Mike Evans.

But he's right there, of just a tad below him in my personal opinion. Some people agree he's even better. You know, so, and they've been just absolutely decimated by injuries all season. You get just a little bit healthier, but I think that's enough to keep it within six. So give me that plus seven all day. I'm riding with you.

Kyle Blondin (1:02:15)
Okay, and then isn't this something about Tampa Bay, you just want to see them successful for some reason, you just want to see them?

Austin (1:02:19)
Yeah, you know Baker Mayfield Baker

Mayfield is one of the most entertaining quarterbacks to watch in football in my opinion and you know, they got I don't know they got those entertaining superstars They you always want to tune in and see what they're doing, you know, I would even argue, you know over even Philadelphia You'd want to watch the Buccaneers personally, but that's just me. I'm a big Buccaneers guy Let's roll Yeah

Kyle Blondin (1:02:41)
Okay. Let's roll. That's the wrong guy.

That guy's that let's roll guy in Russell Wilson can't even, you know, keep the backup position with the giants. That's how bad that's how far he's the client. Huh? what did you say? Let's roll. He said, okay, sorry, sorry. All right. Now the Monday nighter is pretty interesting. I San Francisco hosts the Carolina Panthers who are

Austin (1:02:51)
Yeah. Hey, well, that's, that's, that's let's ride. Isn't that, that's right. Isn't that let's ride. I said, let's roll. Yeah, it's okay.

Kyle Blondin (1:03:09)
Still in the mix to make a playoff run here. This line moved from seven to seven and a half in favor of the 49ers minus 102. 49 and a half. Now what, before we get to the picks here, interesting, you look at Bryce Young. He threw for 448 yards last week. 448 yards last week against the Falcons, who should be just fooled as a franchise to let that happen. He'd even.

Austin (1:03:09)
Ooh. Yeah.

yeah.

If I'm not mistaken,

sorry to cut you off, if I'm not mistaken, his last like three weeks before that may have like combined for 500. So it's like, ⁓ really?

Kyle Blondin (1:03:39)
Yep.

Well, that's, that's where I was going. So he hasn't, he

didn't throw for 200 yards. The last time he was over 200 yards, much less 448 was in week two. He hasn't thrown for 200 fucking yards. And then he throws for 448 where he more should have walked out, handed his resignation in and said, I guys brace young got me. He got me. I can't let you got me. I can't let this happen. It's time to go. It's time for me to go into like pickleball or something. It gets terrible.

Austin (1:03:50)
Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. ⁓

Yeah. ⁓ my God.

Yes

Kyle Blondin (1:04:14)
So Bryce Young comes in this game. Carolina, I have no idea when they come in and win and lose. They lose at home against New Orleans, but walk into Green Bay and win, walk into Atlanta and win. So they're 7 and 1 point dogs. The 49ers got Brock Purdy back. I was a little questioning about taking Mac Jones out when they were riding a hot hand there. But Brock Purdy was lighting up the scoreboard last week.

I'm going to get your take first. Where do you see this on Monday night?

Austin (1:04:44)
Yes.

You know what? I've been, I've been pretty lucky with my Panthers predictions the last couple of weeks. you know, and you know, I've even told you guys that I'm a big fan of San Francisco. You know, I think they're a, ⁓ you know, they're not a top team, but they're this kind of the second tier team. But I just think this is one of those weird moments again, where Carolina somehow gets it done. ⁓ you know, they're at home. ⁓ they're coming off that big win. San Francisco was at home.

Kyle Blondin (1:05:05)
Ugh.

No, San Francisco is at home. Yes,

that's a big factor here, yes.

Well, didn't you say you researched heading into this week?

Austin (1:05:17)
No, well, I researched

his past performances. just kind of had a little brain fart there, but you know what? No, you know what? The home field advantage. You know what? No, I'll still stick with Carolina. You know, I think they're a wild card team this year and I think San Francisco is like borderline wild card team. I think they'll be done first week of the playoffs, but.

I think they get there somehow and I think they got to get this game to get there so. Give me Carolina this week. ⁓ Did you say San Francisco or you haven't made a pick? Yeah, let's hear what you have to say. This may be the hardest pick of the week.

Kyle Blondin (1:05:51)
I'll tell you what I think in a second.

Okay, 49 and a half, what do think of the over under?

Austin (1:05:58)
Gimme... Gimme the under.

Kyle Blondin (1:06:00)
Okay, yeah, I'm riding the under as well. But what I'll say to you is this is the team that is the opposite to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where you kind of like hope they win. I hope this team fucking loses. I hate this team. I think they're a bad football team that keeps hanging around. It's like somebody shows up at a party. Yeah, Caroline, you know when they show up at a party, it's like, why are here? Like, who invited this guy? That's the way I look at this team.

Austin (1:06:19)
Carolina, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that's a perfect way to say it.

Kyle Blondin (1:06:29)
And I don't want to be sitting here in January, you know, waiting to bet on a Carolina Panther fucking playoff game. There's no way. So I hope they lose. I hope they get smashed. I hope this playoff joke is put away and ended this week. I'm going to take the 49ers, but not surprised if the Carolina Panthers somehow walk in and outright win a nine six game that they have got themselves into against the 49ers. But I'll take the 49ers. I'll take the under, but I hate this team. I'm going point that out.

Austin (1:06:36)
Yeah.

Yeah, I couldn't

I want to say I couldn't agree with you more even though I think they're gonna win just based on that those kind of like weird feelings that I have I don't think I don't think anyone really wants to see them there Yeah, and yeah, and like I said, you know you think oh they get there but they're not they're not real, know, they'll get kicked out first week Yeah

Kyle Blondin (1:07:07)
No, just go away. Like, go away.

It's a waste of time. It's a waste of

time as even talking about the Carolina Panthers. They're a joke. Okay. Anyway, that ends the schedule here. I think we talked about if time permits this week, they will try to squeeze Thanksgiving, ⁓ quick pod in before Sunday, sorry, before Thursday, and then try to get another, obviously one for Sunday. what are your final thoughts about this week? What we've discussed? Anything has popped to your mind as we've talked?

Any betting tips, any fantasy tips you want to point out?

Austin (1:07:49)
I'm not really you know I wanna say going forward I I like that we had a couple of like side bets that were not necessarily this ⁓ the spreader the toll so I think every week I'm gonna try to come in with one or two of those ⁓ you know maybe maybe even looking at Justin Jefferson again going forward ⁓ if the totals are that low for example and then other than that no advice I think we covered mostly everything just wanna give a couple shout out outs ⁓

Just to a couple people that are consistently listening, friends of mine, and I wanna give a shout out to my friend Jelly Bean and my friend Yannick. Thank you guys for watching. Thank you for everyone that still continues to watch. And those are my final thoughts. All right.

Kyle Blondin (1:08:31)
All right, so

Jelly Bean and Yannick, welcome to the podcast. We look forward to you as listeners forever. Now you're committed, you can't get out now, now you had a shout out. that's a lot of pressure. Okay, yes, we do appreciate you listening. All right, so the overrated experience is done here today. The pleasure's all been yours. The overrated experience is over and out.

Austin (1:08:39)
I don't know if I want them to feel that pressure, but I appreciate you listening.

Awesome from Ajax, out.

Kyle Blondin (1:08:56)
All right, goodbye everybody.