S4E14 - NFL Wk 6 Sunday Bets

NFL Wk 6 and its Canadian Thanksgiving weekend... 

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome back to the already experienced sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blahn and it's a Saturday. That means betting action. You've joined the right podcast for you square betters out there. This podcast, if you haven't joined us before, is a podcast for you, the average better. I consider myself in between a square and a sharp where I do like to use the numbers. I do like to use the analytics to make my picks, give my takes on games, but I am also caught up in the emotion, the drama.

in the thrill of a great Sunday night or like or a game it's on TV. I have those faults just like you. So join the journey for those who are returning to the podcast. Welcome back. This podcast today is going to focus on week six of the NFL Sunday, Monday action, a little bit of the past looking at Thursday, some of the NFL news and just in general sports betting right now we're approaching probably the best time.

of the year. know the weather's getting shittier, but the situation we have is we have MLB playoffs going on, big 15-inning win by the Seattle Mariners. They'll come to my town, Toronto tomorrow for game one of the ALCS. We have game five, a winner-go-home for the Cubs and Brewers, and the Dodgers are waiting to take on the winner there. I don't know who I want more there. I would kind of like to see Cubs, Dodgers.

NLCS I know that the Milwaukee Brewers had a ridiculous season and they probably are the team that deserves to make that run to the World Series but I don't give a shit I want to see Cubs and Dodgers that's just the way I am we have EPL action while they're on a hiatus right now international action but European soccer is in full swing also NHL puck is dropped last Tuesday we have we seen some action put some bets down there

Are the Leafs going to do it this year? No. But do I hold out hopes? Yeah. OK, so NHL season kicking off. Big slate today. All 32 teams are in action. If you like your betting action, get your money down today on the NHL. This is going to focus on the NFL today. Get your pens. Get your papers ready. Turn off your chat GBT because all the AI knowledge you need is from here. KI, Kyle Intelligence for NFL. You can follow the overrated experience sports.

and sports betting podcast at overrated EXPER2. That's overrated EXPER2. That is on X. If you didn't figure it out, you can also find us on Instagram at overrated experience. So find us, follow us, join us. We're also live streaming on YouTube and Facebook at the moment. Please join, put your comments in, and here we go. All right? So when I look back on Thursday's action,

The seven and a half point favorite Philadelphia Eagles absolutely lay a brutal egg and come out on the bottom. The Giants handed it to them 34 17 and the bets I gave out. Well, it was contingent on the Eagles dominating and just by how much. So I thought the Eagles would cover that seven and a half point spread and keep in mind that game, the Eagles fell down early.

Then they got up and I thought they would put the foot to the throat of Jackson Dart and Cam Scataboo, but they didn't. They fucked up. There's a problem here. So we'll talk a little bit more about that. So the same game parlay I provided was contingent on the Eagles winning this game straight up, which they didn't. I had Dallas Goddard over three plus receptions. He had a day, he had nine receptions against the Giants. He was the main guy.

Here's a lesson learned for us betters out there. So you try to be a sharp, you try to use analytics to make your bets. So I sat here before the podcast on Thursday, decided to go with a Devontae Smith ⁓ over 50 and a half, which he left at 49 fucking yards. ⁓ And a wide open pass missed by Jalen Hertz who would have got me that payout. But I knew and I looked at Dallas Goddard as probably the main weapon for

a New York giant defense that puts a lot of pressure on. They have an excellent defensive line. And who would you hit as a quarterback? You hit the guy that you can quickly get the ball into your hands, and that's Dallas Goddard. But when I looked at the line, I looked, it was like four and a half ⁓ receptions, and yardage was high. I just thought, ⁓ man, he hasn't done it all year. So just because he hasn't done it.

He's peaked around four five, but do I feel confident enough to go with it that he's going to make his season high this game? Why didn't I? Why did I make the mistake of overthinking just because it didn't happen? Everything told me that he was going to have a high volume game. And I stuck away from it because I overthought it. So that's a fail on me. All right. And then I'm not going to necessarily ⁓

go down, be down on myself on a pick of Devontae Smith, you know, under 50 and a half. Again, a missed pass. The opportunity was there. He was part of the game plan. I also had Saquon Barkley receiving yards, 17, over 17 yards. He wound up with nine. He's been very minimal in this, in this offense, right? So Saquon rushed for 58 yards, 12 attempts, nine receiving yards. But this is not the Saquon Barkley of last season where he was

destroying teams. destroyed the Giants last year. He is a minimal factor in comparison to what he was last year. I do not know what's going on on the Eagles offense. Jalen Hurts threw for 253 yards. ⁓ Average, he looks okay, but what's weird about this offense for Philadelphia is that it's starting to look, at least in this small period, keep in mind they're under the microscope in every game.

there's going to be life and death for this team is that I'm looking at like Alabama and Missouri here. Like I have Alabama and already Missouri's up seven nothing like that's how things are going for me. So good start for a Saturday college. You not make it a Sunday for Christ's sake anyway, but for the Philadelphia Eagles, they have that look like they did the in between season from the, you know, the Superbowl appearance where they lost to where they lost the first round against Tampa Bay to winning. They look that

They look two years ago, Philadelphia, the ⁓ offense where they have the weapons, but it just seems it's stale. It's not dominating. And this is an example of that. Missed passes by Jalen Hertz. You have A.G. Brown who did wind up with 80 yards, six reception. So he was targeted. But they're not maximizing these offensive weapons. And then got A.G. Brown, you know, by his locker. I'm talking to the media because I have to, I don't want to get fined.

asking about a sit down he had with Saquon and Jalen. The Saquon mentioned that they had to discuss the offense and he denies that this sit down never happened. And it's getting to the point right now where, yes, I recognize that AJ Brown is a top five NFL receiver. And I said this on X. When does the distraction and the headache become not

⁓ It doesn't it outweighs the performance on the field are the Eagles really better? With AJ Brown in lineup if he if he's all in yes the narrative after this game on Thursday should have been we Team we we got to do better as not we us we we like it instead of of it's it's more of a me me me And again, I'll go back to many talent in the NFL

If you got talent, man, you can be I, I, all you want. That's the way it is. The NFL, if you produce, but we're getting to the point right now where the Super Bowl champs might have to make a decision, is this guy a cancer? Right? Can we live without him? Are we going to be more, our goal is the Super Bowl, back to back Super Bowls. Are we better off with AJ Brown? You are, if you go on a 10 game winning streak, cause everything's going well and you're feeding them the ball.

But if there's any hiccup, anything that takes the team off the rails a little bit, AJ Brown is going to bring you down where you can't get up. So I want us to think about that. AJ Brown might be better for the Philadelphia Eagles gone. That sounds so stupid because usually there is a big, big gap of ⁓ more and more flexibility for a personality like that. But I think we've

reached the peak over the last couple years where we've seen AJ Brown act like a baby and I think he's doing worse than good with the Eagles franchise. On the giant side, Jackson Dart threw, he only threw for, what'd have, had 195 yards. It's not like he tore them up, but he had 13 rushing attempts and we got the over there and Jackson Dart's rushing. 58 yards, Cam Scataboo had three touchdowns. He had a day, 98 yards. Definitely.

things in New York for now for Brian Dable. I don't know if he's going to survive, but looking up as far as the future, and I think that's what the giant fans wanted. Hope, do I have a quarterback? And I got Kim Scadaboo who's like a character. Like, you know, he's like a bowling ball out there. People love that.

ripping his shirt off with Fitzmagic on TV. don't know what the hell that was about, but that was happening. But the last comment I'll make on this game was that Brian Dayball, coach of the New York Giants, got in a little bit of hot water as Jackson Dart went to the blue tent with under concussion protocol. You could see him basically chewing out the doctor on the sideline, you know, really complaining that, you know, where is my quarterback? Is he coming back? Not a good look.

for the NFL, not a good look for the New York Giants. Obviously concussions are very, very sensitive at the moment. And they have been, guess, for the last few seasons that you cannot twist an arm to get a player back in the ball game just because the game's on the line. I get it. But the concussion has to take first priority. So Giants owner, ⁓ John ⁓ Mara, did ⁓ comment and he did say he spoke to Brian Dayball.

that that was not a good look and kind of not something the franchise wants to publicly be perceived as not looking at player health as the first and foremost ⁓ focus. there. Now we get on to, no, I was going to say Sunday action, but yeah, I'm going to talk about Joe Flacco in the series of games we're going to talk about. We'll talk about him a little later. season tomorrow, week six is going to kick off in London.

The Denver Broncos seven point favorites are going to travel to London and take on the New York Jets, the 0-5 Jets. And right now the Jets, you know, are under fire. Aaron Glenn, new coach, came from the Detroit Lions, defensive coordinator, defensive guru, kind of made his chops, you know, with his resume with the Lions D. And this Jets D looks like shit, man. It does look like shit. He's getting pressure. There's, I've heard talk of people not being surprised if he's one and done a season.

And it just, you know, I look at, and I'm gonna do a podcast that focuses on the Dallas Cowboys Netflix series that looks back at the nineties and the build of that, you know, Jerry Jones team to what it is now. And what I'll say to this is that, you know, you look back at the, like a team like the Cowboys and you look at their three Superbowls, 200 Jimmy Johnson, but you know, in reality he helped build that a nucleus and core.

So they could win three Super Bowls, but it didn't start off well for Jimmy Johnson. He had a horrible, horrible season, know, under, you know, in Dallas, you know, Troy Eggman wasn't winning games. He was under siege his first game, first year, winning a couple of ball games. And it eventually grew to obviously a Super Bowl champion, America's team, three Super Bowl rings. And you know, you have three Hall of Famers. So what is the New York Jets? Do they have that much, ⁓

faith in Aaron Glenn that they will hold on to him to ride this out. You know, it would be just like the Jets, the panic and get rid of them right away.

But I mean, if you're going to go with Aaron Glenn, I think you got to give him a couple of seasons, right? You got to give him a couple of seasons that they're progressing, moving up, you know, towards a playoff, get him a quarterback. For Christ's sake, get him a quarterback. Justin Fields, there are guys in the NFL that are just not starting quarterbacks. And I don't understand why people don't see this. Justin Fields is a good stopgap quarterback when you don't have a plan in place. That's just the way it is. That's the way he's always going to be. There is no team out there, 32 teams.

It's going to say, the next five years, I'm giving the keys to Justin Fields. He's going to lead us the way. No, you're going to make a huge mistake. He is what he is. Many quarterbacks that show their hand on how they perform don't necessarily get better with time. It's as simple as that. Right? I mean, I'm sure there's exceptions. I wouldn't put Baker Mayfield in that group. He was kind of run out of Cleveland for unknown reasons. He provided playoff wins.

are a win against the Steelers and almost knocked off the Chiefs when he was there. yeah, just ⁓ I like Denver in this game to cover the seven. I like this game to go over 43 and a half. I tend to believe when both teams are playing on a neutral site, the score goes up a little bit, a little bit more ⁓ pass happy. And so that's what I might take on that. So 9.30 AM tomorrow morning, get up, get your coffee ready. Game from London. Here we go. No player props on this one from my perspective.

Now we got the Cleveland, Joe Flackolis. How do you say that five times? Joe Flackolis heading into Pittsburgh to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are five and a half point favorites. The Steelers, wow. Holy shit, they are the lead. This division is theirs. The Ravens went to shit. Maybe they will stay shit, I don't know, that's, I never count them out, regardless of who's injured. Bengals are toast, maybe.

And the Browns, well, they're in transition again. They're there because they got to show up 17 games a year. And, you know, this is not going to be a playoff run for the Cleveland Browns. Now, Dylan Gabriel had a solid performance in London or Tottenham Stadium last week against the Vikings. They did lose. I think he moves the ball well. I do think they're going to cover. don't think the Steelers are a perfect team.

I think they'll be susceptible to the lights out defense that the Cleveland Browns provide. So I think this game stays close kind of like it did against the Minnesota Vikings. Maybe the Steelers win by four or five, but as long as they cover the five and a half, that's what I'm stating here. Cleveland will cover. This game will go over 38 and a half. I think there'll be a little more scoring here. All right, both teams getting up to 17-17 and then maybe the Steelers pull away on a field goal or such.

And I like quitting junkins, running back. This guy is the real deal. You know, he was 90 plus last game, I believe. I can't remember what his yardage was. His overhunter here is 77 and a half, minus 114, but I like it. I like it, I like it a lot. So take junkins over rushing total, minus 114. Note on this one as well, looks like Jalen Ramsey is questionable, hamstring issue. Now that is important to veteran, he's a gamer.

And Jalen Ramsey is a difference maker. He would eat up a rookie quarterback. So if you're Cleveland, do not, your hope in that question will go to out. I cannot perform. My hamstring is so fucked that I can't get out in the field and chase, read mind fuck Dylan Gabriel and be where you didn't think he was. And then Jalen Hurts is trotting and doing what he does on the defensive side, disrupting offenses, because that's what he does. And if he shows up tomorrow,

Expect at least some sort of pick or fumble recovery from Jayla Ramsey, heard it first, but he is questionable. So keep that, keep an eye out for that. The LA Chargers. Remember a time when we were talking about the LA Chargers after two weeks, maybe even three weeks, I can't recall what it was. Yeah, three weeks I think. And we're talking about winning a division, we're talking about, know, playoffs are pretty much locked and Jim Harbaugh.

you know, coach of the year. I thought they were looking good. Jimmy Harbaugh was, you know, arguably one of the ⁓ possible value bets for coach of the year that you could have taken, you know, three weeks ago, but they're a little bit, they have a slide going here. No, they lost to the giants two weeks back, which fucked me in my survivor pool, but Hey, what are gonna do? And then last week they got taken to the woodshed about, you know, with 27 straight points by the Washington commanders, Jaden Daniels,

really really ⁓ you know taking it to them and now they head into Miami Miami is just

McDaniel's coach for the Miami Dolphins is dead man walking. He's not going to survive. I have no idea why, you know, the, the rumors are at least the tweeters out there or the news is that Rex Ryan might be the guy, you know, comes in because he has that different perspective on coaching that disciplinary coaching that, you know, McDaniel's Josh McDan, no, Josh. What is Mike McDaniels? What the fuck is his name? It's McDaniels.

didn't have. but he was good enough to hire and he was a boy genius that first two years, right? And then things go south. Now he doesn't have the traits and the attributes of a head coach that you don't think you want in your franchise. Let me remind you, the Rex Ryan, yes, he did have a positive run with the New York Jets back in the day, two AFC championship runs, but he did have a tenure with the Bills that we'll forget. He didn't make a difference there. He was a blip on the radar. ⁓

and you almost forget he was a Bills coach. I don't think Rex Ryan's your answer. And then maybe this is why you shouldn't have your owner necessarily be the guy who's making decisions on head coaching. What the fuck does Steven Ross know about football? Honestly, he owns a team, but is he, just because on the surface he has a personality trait you like, is that gonna put extra Ws up? I don't think so.

You made a mistake by drafting Tua versus Herbert. And the quarter starts with your quarterback. Simple as that. You constructed the team poorly, can't play in cold weather, they disappear in the playoffs. It's more than just the coach, even though the coach I think is gonna go and you know, his resume is telling you and his results are telling you it's probably the right idea, but just jumping in with a Rex Ryan type, I don't know, Miami. I don't know what the fuck you're doing. Chargers four and a half point favorites this game.

has an over under 43 and a half. I do think this game is gonna go over 43 and a half. I don't think that's a problem. I like you over there. Chargers probably cover the four and a half after what I seen last week from Miami pissing away against Carolina, a big lead, and losing handily. So I have no faith in the Miami Dolphins. I have no faith in to lead this team anywhere. I didn't know if they could lead them out of the locker room.

So take the Chargers, not much to say there, but I think there'll be some ⁓ points scored for sure. Look this, Alabama has tied at seven, seven, five, 24 to go in the first quarter. Things are looking up. Man, everything has changed since we first opened up and talked about Alabama being down seven, nothing. It's gonna be my day. Maybe not, I don't know. New England, they are the prize right now in the NFL. Head into New Orleans, take on the Saints. The Patriots knocking off, they'll.

undefeated Buffalo Bills, Sunday Night Football, Drake May having a game for himself, had a really good game. Now, I mean, the perception of the New England Patriots has absolutely changed with that win, right? know, they, ⁓ the perspective is that they're an up and coming team, which they are, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here, right? They had a great game against Buffalo. I don't see the consistent train necessarily ⁓ rolling here New England just yet.

The three and a half point favorites on the road against New Orleans Saints who did knock off the Giants last week at home. I think that three and a half points is a little too much for me to take the Patriots on the road. Will they win this game? Possibly. Is it a field goal game? Maybe. Does New Orleans win? Maybe. I mean, is it really out of question that the New Orleans Saints who got to win last week gave the Bills a run a week earlier can't win this game? I'm going to say they, they're going to

I'm gonna say the least cover. So give me the Saints to cover three and a half. I don't think there's gonna a lot of scoring in this game. Give me 45 and a half under. Yeah, it's called the overrated experience for a reason, because we love the overs, but this game, it's gonna go under. Lock it in, write it down. Whatever the hell you do to record your bets, just make sure you listen to that one before you go to your book and make your wager.

All right, here we go. Now we got the Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars. Actually pretty solid game here, right? ⁓ Seahawks coming off a loss against Tampa Bay at home. know, Tampa Bay is really good. Baker Mayfield, we'll get to him in a bit. Having an MVP kind of start. Jacksonville knocking off the Chiefs. They are three and one. Looking to go four and one. Is this franchise turning around? We've seen Trevor Lawrence.

have a spectacular two minutes to conclude that football game on Monday night. And I'm not lying, like he was average Trevor Lawrence, you know, for the rest, for most of the season already, through the first three quarters and 13 minutes of the season until that two minute drive, knocking off the Chiefs where he, for whatever, a light went off, he threw darts to Brian Thomas Jr. He's running the ball with authority.

Even when he falls multiple times, getting it to the ends. And so let's see what happens here. They are a point and a half favorite at home. I like the Jaguars at home, point and half. I think that's too low. I think that's the betting public that has probably not the faith in a three in one team that if it's not the Jacksonville Jaguars, you put the exact same team with the exact same start. This is at least a three and a half to my opinion. So you're getting the Jaguars at a good value at minus one and a half. Take the Jags.

I do like this to be a bit of a burn burner, as the kids say. Over 47 and a half, it's moved up from 46 and a half for the over-under, but I still like points to be scored. Liam Cohen, head coach, offensive minded, will keep coming at you, and I think will be putting the ball in the end zone, and Seattle will have to keep up. So, 47 and a half, take the over. And when it comes to over, that means there's a lot of receiving yards, right? So I'm gonna like Seattle's Jackson, Smith and Jigba.

This guy's a gamer, still under the radar in my opinion because he plays in Seattle. If you play for the Cowboys, he played for the Giants, he played for the Bears, he's going to be a high profile name. So when I see 81 and a half on the main go guy, four to five games, he's 90 plus yards receiving. You know, even if you watched that Thursday nighter ⁓ with the Seahawks and Cardinals a couple of weeks back, he didn't make the 90 yards, but all his 70 plus yards that game were in the second half.

And when you watch them play in the smarts this kid has, you understand why he's the go-to guy. So 81 and a half, I think he's breaking 100 in this one. All right, let's move on to Arizona, Indy. I can't, every time I see Arizona, I'm disgusted, I wanna throw up. Based on what we've seen last week in that loss to Tennessee, one, you're losing a fucking Tennessee at home. Disgusting. The way you lost, pissing away a lead, dropping balls before you get in the end zone, kicking balls into the end zone after you intercept them to the...

Titans can score touchdowns, fumbles off a mask in a shotgun formation. Absolutely terrible deed to not shut down the Titans on their last drive to kick the winning field goal. It's bringing me back, man, flashbacks. Talking about even the Cardinals coming into this game into Indy is really upsetting me. Really upsetting me. But what I'll tell you in this one is are the Colts real? Their seven point favoritist was up six and a half, the line, at least when I got it, is now up to seven, a full touchdown.

But I'm not shy away from the Colts. I'm not shy away from the Colts. Kyler Murray's questionable, by the way. He's questionable. And even if he plays, he's got a foot injury. His whole game is to be able to get out of the pocket, run around, back and forth, buy some time for his receivers, and if he's a half second slower than he normally is, then he's average at best. And if he's below average, I don't like their odds. The Indianapolis Colts cover the seven. I think this is a...

is a comfortable win for the Colts. I do think it's, I did say under 47 and half minus 115. So I do think it's not as a crazy game as the Colts usually find themselves in. think they control Jonathan Taylor. Just, yeah, it's gonna be Colts, okay? I don't have more analytics on this one. Also, from a player prop perspective, I will, I do think, I do think that

We have a, well look at this targeting man. Alabama receiver just got taken out. Here come the flags. He isn't moving, that's not good. And we're probably gonna get a targeting and an ejection from Missouri. That is not good. This player, I don't know who it is right now, the receiver for Alabama is still and he's not moved as far as I can see on the field. Not a good look there. Hopefully he's okay. Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals. They got him down to 53 and a half minus 114.

He's you know, he had 90 plus yards in a losing situation against Tennessee last week I think the Cardinals will have opportunities to move the ball. He'll get his four or five catches He'll get his 30 plus yards most likely on one or two of those. So I think that's too low I like Marvin Harrison juniors ⁓ Receiving yards over 53 and a half in a losing cause Against the Colts and they'll have to chase and throw so he's gonna be a big-time target moving on moving on the LA Rams

Losers to the San Francisco 49ers and Thursday Night Football week back. Now they have a 10 day gap, a little bit more rest than the Baltimore Ravens who are going to host this game. The Rams opened up as a seven and a half point favorite, no faith in the Ravens. Now it's down to seven with the over under 44 and a half. And really when you look at this game, you have to make sure you're keeping an eye on who's playing, who's not playing. So Lamar Jackson is out.

Right there and some key notables that are back on the defensive side of the ball because they were terrorized on the defensive side of the ball. Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey safety quarterback are back. Are they 100 %? I don't know, but they're good enough to play and those guys are difference makers.

I have more faith in the Baltimore Ravens overall and John Harbaugh to somehow rectify the monstrosity which was last week when they got blown out by Houston at home. Cooper Rush is a career quarterback. He did it in Dallas. He had some pretty good games as a backup. There's no kidding ourselves.

It's a backup, right? I got to believe that the Ravens will come back with a little bit more ferocity, a little more shame that they got embarrassed in front of their home fans. Actually hearing fans in Baltimore boo the Ravens team, top five organizations in sport. I was going to say football, but I mean, they're a class act all around. They know how to find talent. They know how to keep a competitive team year in, year out, and they're on hard times right now.

Right, other season's kinda getting lost on them. Only one win.

I think they cover the seven here. I Cooper Rush has a solid game. Derek Henry has to be more of a factor. He has to be dominant. He wasn't that last week. I think they cover the seven. I would have loved if it was seven and a half. Hopefully it jumps again. ⁓ When I look at the side of the ball for, when I look at the players, look at a prop in this game, even though I got Pukka Nakua and Devonte Adams, which are producers on the Rams side.

I'm gonna go with Zay Flowers on the Baltimore side receiver. 53 and a half yards over. I Cooper Rush will get him the ball. He's had 70 plus yards the last two games. I don't think it changes here. think he's gonna get volume. I think he'll be over 53 and a half for Zay Flowers. Raven's cover, I do like probably the under, man. I think this is gonna be a tight ball game. 44 and a half under, let's say that. Dallas, how about them Cowboys? Right, how about them Cowboys?

Is this where they lay an egg? They go into Carolina and you know, cause they walked into, you know, with the Jets last week, demolished them in MetLife Stadium. They tie the Packers who are heavy favorites at home 40-40. Is this where they lay an egg? Cause this is what the Dallas Cowboys would do. Right? So they're three point favorites. They were three and a half point favorites, but they're three point favorites over the Panthers. Panthers coming off a big win at home against the Miami Dolphins.

They got a lot of confidence going. They got a couple wins already. I like the over 49 and a half. It's going to be a shit show. think there's going be points coming out of our ass there. It's going to be a touchdown after touchdown, fumble interceptions, bad field. When I say bad field position for the defenses, it's going to be sloppy. I'm going to still say the Cowboys cover the three. Am I confident, super confident? I'm going to say no because it'd just be a Dallas Cowboy thing to walk into Carolina.

It will look like the Dallas Cowboys that walked into Chicago in week two of the NFL and laid an egg. Okay. So don't be surprised if you don't get that win, but I'm to take them anyway and just hope to God they cover injury news. as you know, CD lamb is still for the Cowboys. Turpin, the other key receiver is out. So I like George Pickens to get over 70 and a half, ⁓ yards receiving as player prop there. You didn't get much last week, but I got to believe that.

fewer and fewer receivers that Dak is comfortable with are in the lineup. So I gotta think that more and more of the game plan is gonna get the ball in Pickens hands and let him fight for contested throws and see if he comes down. And from the Carolina side, Chuba Harbor for second week in a row is out running back. I didn't see him hurt him last week, so you take it for what it is. So the Cowboys cover the three, over 49 and a half and.

Pickens over 70 and a half yards receiving.

I can't think of a game that I would watch least and that is the Tennessee Titans taking on the Vegas Raiders.

Vegas Raiders, Raiders are five and a half point favorites. Tennessee coming off a win in Arizona, I think it's pretty accurate to say that nobody believes that they won the game in a normal, we were better than you fashion against Arizona. Fluke, you could say. But Las Vegas, I don't know what they're bringing to the table. They're messed up, they're messed up.

They're a messed up organization right now. They're in between. had a game plan coming into 2025 season and now it's hit them in the mouth that, shit, maybe we have taken the wrong turn and set our franchise back a few seasons. They were banking on that Geno Smith would put them in a position to make a playoff run. It's not looking like that right now. Now, I think if you're the Vegas Raiders, you have no choice to ride this out and hope that Geno

turns it around, but you're banking on one or two interceptions a game. And I don't think he is playing to the actual makeup of this Raiders team. It's gotta be a run first team with Gentry, you gotta get him in the offense, and they're starting to do that, but he's got to learn to throw the fucking ball away. Or check down. He has a Superman, and I've heard this before, it's not my term, like a Superman complex, where he's trying to be like Josh Allen.

Throw 70-yard bombs in a poor situation where it's more of a live and fight another day. That's what he should be doing so I'm still gonna say they cover though. I believe Tennessee's that bad. I just think Tennessee's that bad. They want to have the same fuck ups as The Cardinals did now keep in mind Brock Bowers tight end is out and I'm not the first guy to say it but you know if he had a bum knee why was he in the lineup he probably

Could have rehabbed that knee and been 100 % in this game already. That's just a bad, poor decision by the Raiders, it looks like, and how they handled Brock Bowers and his knee issue. This game will go over 41 and a half. Yeah, this will be a sloppy game again. Maybe Gino's on a heater because he's playing poor competition. Throws a four touchdowns, I don't know. But it goes over 41 and a half. That's all I can say about that. Not much else there. No player props, wouldn't touch that at all.

Now we get to maybe the interesting game of the four o'clock hour, the most interesting game I should say, and that is the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The Buccaneers have moved from a three point favorite to a three and a half point favorite. The 49ers coming off a huge man win against the L.A. Rams last Thursday where Mack Jones.

how the game of his career solidified himself as a career NFLer. If he doesn't somehow wind up quarterback in this 49ers team for the rest of the season, he will find himself in the free agent market, or at least one team will consider him like a Sam Darnold, like a Seattle. But I don't know which team this is, but they will give him money to quarterback if the 49ers.

you know, stick with Brock Purdy. paid him, but the 49ers again are a team that is not afraid to cut ties even though they've invested and change course. That's kind of a respectful thing for this franchise.

But Tim Ibebe is a buzzsaw right now despite injuries. Mike Evans still out. Bucky Irving out running back. then Chris Godwin is out. So weapons a little depleted but not for Baker Mayfield. Baker is the guy, right? He got me a payout last week with a combination of his passing yards and running. Fantastic. So Baker Mayfield is gonna lead this team to victory. Now what's key and we need to know here is Brock Purdy

It doesn't look like he's gonna play. pretty gonna, I'm just gonna say he's out. Ricky Pearsall, receiver is out for the 49ers. Mac Jones is questionable. Mac Jones, the guy we just talked about, who led this team to a victory in LA, provided hope to all the faithful in San Francisco, may not play. He's questionable. Can Kyle Shanahan work his quarterback magic?

with Adrian Martinez. Adrian Martinez, who the fuck is Adrian Martinez? Well, I'll tell you, Adrian Martinez played his college ball at Kansas State in Nebraska, and he spent time with the Birmingham Stallions in the UFO.

And my guess is if Kyle Shanahan thought enough to bring him to the roster, there's gotta be something he likes about Adrian Martinez. And we'll work some sort of magic if Adrian Martinez finds himself in this ball game to be credible. But I do believe that three and a half points, well, I think the Buccaneers are gonna cover that even though it went up from three to three and a half. This game's gonna go over 47 and a half because fuck Baker Mayfield is a

run and gun son of a bitch man he's a run and gun son of a bitch that he is fucking balls out he's going he's going to be putting up points whether it be putting his head down or putting a 40 or 50 yard pass up you know to ⁓ to somebody in the end zone so that run and gun son of a bitch Baker Mayfield's gonna have a game now I gotta I'm gonna point out something that pissed me off is that FanDuel which is the book I use right now and I always tell you if you've joined us before

and I'm not doing it, I'm being hypocritical, is I'm only using FanDuel at the moment, okay? Ideally, you should have multiple books to get the best odds you possibly can on a game you like, whether it be the spread of player, player props especially. The numbers are varying across the board when you look at DraftKings, FanDuel, Beth365, and you can find value for those plays you like. Now, last week, I went to the pay window because I took Baker Mayfield's...

Pass and rushing yards combined and won the over because he was outstanding last week Fandals not even offering Baker Mayfield outside of the passing yards, which I'll take over 239 and a half fine. I'll take it but my focus was on You know the combo of the pass and rush yards and if they put it in fine great But yesterday when I checked to put it in and put prep for this podcast. It was not there so

I want to point out if you don't think that these sportsbooks aren't trying to fuck with you and Put you in a situation where you have the least possibility of Think again think again You know gambling is not a prosperous entity for many right? But they are twisting Everything you can think of to put the awe it's almost like they're

using analytics and it's not surprising to crush any little hope that you have. ⁓ I've noticed it, especially in your same game parlays, and this is suckers, I do it too for soccer, mostly soccer. They pump you full of promotions to do same game parlays for every sport. As long as you get to plus even money, we'll give you a 50 % boost or no sweat bet, whatever it may be. And I get suckered in too. Don't get me wrong.

That's the square side of me, I do it as well. But when you go into these scene game parlays and you start looking at what you're gonna add to it, there's sometimes restrictions that, oh no, no, you can't combine these together. You can't put over six and a half corner kicks with over a goal and a like it's just, like give me a chance, man. I'm gonna lose anyway most likely. Just give me a chance to pick what I want. And then the odds don't make sense, right? You know, like the, you know, you're picking a,

a part of your same game parlay, it's minus 500 compared to a minus 245, but if you choose one or the other, there's a little difference at all, it makes zero sense. So we're being manipulated, this is why you gotta look at it for fun. Don't kid yourself, the same game parlays are not your friend. Stay away, bat straight up, and think that your sports book is fucking with you. And more importantly, get multiple books so you can fuck with them, okay?

But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gonna cover here. This game's go over 47 and a half. And Baker Mayfield goes over 240. 239 and a half minus 114 passing yards. So we move on to Cincinnati and Green Bay. And if you join us Thursday, we talked about Cincinnati making a bold, ballsy, nothing to lose move, which I love, making a trade with the Cleveland Browns to pick up the veteran.

40 year old Joel Flacco.

Wow, you know, I wonder what that conversation look like. Hey Joe, this is Zach Taylor from the Cincinnati Bengals. We just traded for you. What time can you be on a plane? Because we got you starting at four o'clock Eastern Standard Time in Green Bay. You know, Green Bay, the team you beat for Cleveland in week two or week three, sorry, whatever it was. We need you. We need you to be under the, you know, fuck, I'll fax you.

I'm just kidding facts, you're hell facts. Do you think you can pick up the phone book type of playbook between now and four o'clock on Sunday? Like, Joe, we need you. Get on a plane. We're gonna have you start. I don't care if you go to the hotel. I give a shit where you sleep. You just need to be at the facility. We're gonna hand you a playbook and you're gonna start going through it. We're gonna prep you as much as we can to get you to be ready for that four o'clock kickoff in Green Bay.

Don't think about playing cards on the plane as you travel. You're going to be inundated with probably a Zach Taylor podcast, audio book of the playbook. It's wild. And I love it. Right? When you look at the Cincinnati Bengals, what do they got to lose? Right? So far, what we know of Jake Browning is that he can't get the job done. He makes his team worse. So if you're looking at a team, I believe,

is trying to do something and probably has pumped up his locker room and that's go get Joe Flacco. If he gets sacked eight times tomorrow and he throws seven interceptions, it's not like they had an alternative that was better. Let's just say that. Nobody would think heading into Green Bay tomorrow, they were going to knock off the Green Bay Packers. Nobody. As simple as that, nobody would think that. Okay. I think it's outstanding that the Bengals have the balls.

to make the move. Keep in mind, they fucked up many times in the organization. From going from great moves to lock up Jamar Chase and Higgins, and then having your first-round draft pick hold out because of a wording on a contract, and ⁓ Hendrickson also holding out to the last minute. You look like Bush League franchise that people think you are. And then you go out and do this, which gives you a little more face. Then you go and do this.

and you put the faith and the belief back in the Cincinnati Bengals. Good for you. And I'm hoping Joe Flacco has an outstanding ball game, all right? But Jamar Chase is questionable. So you have the positive, like let's have a ballsy move, let's think outside the box, let's go to Cleveland, pick up the phone, they don't want Joe Flacco, let's pick him up, let's see what we can do with this season. And then Jamar Chase is questionable because of an illness. Fuck. Fuck. Zach Taylor's like, ⁓ fuck.

I can't catch a fucking break here. So hopefully he's questionable, meaning that he'll be in this game.

But I think the Bengals cover 14 and a half. Okay, 14 and a half is way too much. They obviously couldn't cover against the Browns back in week three. They lost outright. They couldn't cover the Cowboys where they went up with a tie. And I do believe there's gonna be more scoring in this game than we think. It's gonna be over 44 and a half. So let's see what's going on there. Over, sure.

Cincinnati covers and I Joey Flacco 207 and a half and this is probably me just thinking man I like the situation I just want to see him do it I want to see him go full fucking Johnny United's out there and just terrorize this green babe hacker defense All right, 207 and a half. I gotta believe it's all or nothing. I'm getting the ball Out of my hands. I may throw five picks, but I'm gonna throw 500 fucking yards. Go Joey Flacco. I got your back

And what's also keen, like it's really, I just came across this. Brandon McManus, the Green Bay kicker has a quad issue. He's questionable.

That's significant guys, that's significant. You know, because your kicker is going to make a lot of difference in how you look at your offense. And when maybe you're going for more fourth downs, you know, that's, that's a difference. Do you make them? Do you not make them? So keep that in mind. So apparently, ⁓ you know, they might have Mark McNamara, off the practice squad, who's never appeared in an NFL game as a kicker. So keep a close eye on that. Like even if Brandon McManus is activated,

Do you feel 100 % that he can boot a 50 yard field goal? I don't. So keep that in mind. Go Joey Flacco. I got your back.

Sunday nighter, great matchup, great matchup. I love it because it's Thanksgiving weekend here in Canada. So Monday's an off day. You can truly sit back with a few.

cocktails, let's say. Enjoy the Blue Jays on one hand, kick off their American League Championship Series against the Seattle Mariners. Go Jays.

And then you got the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs big time matchup Sunday night football. Chiefs are two and half point favorites. They're looking better even in that loss against Jacksonville chalk it up to the Jaguars were just better than you that night in that last drive.

Lions, I think they come to town, they win this game. They are motoring. They are motoring. The only team that's gonna get in their way is themselves, is somehow, Dan Campbell goes all chaotic, starts going for fourth and tens and shit like that, or they don't make the fourth and ones that they traditionally go for, they're at the goal line, don't settle for a field goal, and if they don't make those, then they're dead. But they usually do. So give me the Lions, straight up. Give me the Lions straight up.

Okay, give that man his money, that's me. Give me my money. That's what I want. And this game is going, I said under 52 and a half.

hate it. I hate that I put that down. I hate it. put my pen on paper to said under 52 and a half. Look at this. See the pen? Yep. Yep. It's going to cross out the under and I'm going to take 52 and a half because the square better me wants the over. He wants the lions to win this game. I want it out there that I want a hundred to a hundred score. I don't give a shit. I want all out offense all the time in this ball game. I'm going to take the over 52 and a half. That change is live, live stream change.

from under to over in this ball game. As far as a player prop goes, I like Jameer Gibbs. I'm gonna ride the Jameer Gibbs prop all season long. And a lot of it is the pass and receiving, sorry, rushing and receiving prop. Right now it's 102 and a half. They're feeding this guy the ball any which way they can because he's a game changer. Yes, they have the one-two punch with Montgomery, but Gibbs is the volume guy.

Okay, he's the explosive game breaker that every team wishes they had. He's gonna have a huge game against his Chiefs defense, which is good, but they have him great. They're traditionally great with Spags as the D coordinator. So take the Lions, take the over, man, last minute change. I just put the over on that one. That's hot off the press. Jameer Gibbs, total yards, 102 and a half minus 114. Now Monday night, we've got two games again. We have Buffalo.

coming off a loss against New England in Atlanta as 4 and 1 point favorites. Hmm. Hmm, hmm, hmm.

I think the Falcons cover this. mean, this game is gonna be closer than you think. You have the Bills on the road. They're not a perfect team. Yes, they probably have the best top three player in football, Josh Allen. James Cook is ridiculous. I think the Bills get it done, but it's not a walk in the park. What I'm saying, huh? Not a walk in the park. All right, Alabama just picked off Missouri. Go to hell, Missouri. 14-7, love it. Love it. Okay.

So I was also, was about to take an interesting prop. didn't take it. I'm not going to give it out, but I was that close to taking a first quarter, Bijon Robinson total yards, you know, rushing and receiving. And I think it was 27 and a half or something like that or 30. You got to believe a land is going to want to establish Bijon right away. Now it sucks if he gets shut down, but you know, he breaks one tackle.

He's got that 30 yards ready to go. And it's plus money. I was that close to give it. I'm going to regret it if he does it. you know, I'm a hypocrite. Again, I just talked about, well, I looked at Dallas Goddard, but I just can't lose a fourth quarter bet like that. I can't do it. I just cannot put money on a first quarter and it's gone like that. It feels great when you win, but when you lose, it's just like, my God, happened. like having $100 at the blackjack table and it's gone into three hands. Can't do it. Don't want to do it.

And maybe I should do it, but I'm not gonna do it here. But what I do like is this game to go over 49 and a half. It's gonna be a back and forth, I think, shoot out. And James Cook, right now, 70 and a half rushing yards. James Cook, man, this guy is a gamer. I think he's way too low. The run has to be a part of the Bills offense, and they know it. James Cook is a gamer, right? So 70 and a half, give me that all day. All day. And then the second and final Monday nighter are the Chicago Bears.

and Jaden Daniels, Washington commanders. If you remember last year, this game ended at a Hail Mary, where Jaden Daniels threw it up, tip, commanders win. Really, the commanders went in one direction, the Bears went in another, and the commanders are still in different direction, and the Bears are in another. Bears have looked pretty good, coming off a win against Vegas, before their bye week.

So you gotta give them props and respect. I Ben Johnson, coach from the Lions, is a good influence on Caleb Williams.

But when you look at these two quarterbacks that were drafted in same year, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, do you really look at them differently? I do. And I'm sure you do too. This is a stupid question I'm asking, but the reality is we're still talking about Caleb Williams' development. we're beyond that with Jayden Daniels too. How far can he take this Washington commander team and can he take them back to the NFC championship like he did last year?

Those rookie, inexperienced development conversations are totally out the window when it comes to Jaden Daniels. But they're still at the forefront when talking about Caleb Williams. It's just got to be sickening. Washington was in a better position because they had no choice. The Bears are to take the first quarterback off the board, and you just take who's left over. There's really not much to think about, right?

Jayden Daniels might've been their guy if the commanders were picking first overall, they just might've been, but you know, and I know the pressure in the NFL was that Caleb Williams was that number one quarterback. And it might've been a tough pill to swallow for any general manager to go away from that narrative, take Jayden Daniels first overall. And then it turns out it was the bad choice. You would be fired and probably never hired again in the NFL. I just think that kind of pressure did exist during that draft.

So the Washington commanders were in the better position to pick whoever was not picked. No choice, no thinking. And it worked out big time. It's worked out so much despite what the president wants is the change back to Redskins. Jaden Daniels and the success the commanders are having, and just Jaden Daniels being the rock star he is, is putting a new life on this commander's brand, right?

You only know Jaden Daniels as the commander's quarterback. So I think single-handedly, he has kind of crushed that narrative to bring back the name. I don't care what you hear. I can't believe that Jaden Daniels, you think of him, you think of him as a commander, and I think if they wanted to keep the commander's name versus going back in time to the Redskins name, he was a blessing in disguise for that franchise and the brand.

That conversation is dead. Do the commanders cover four and a half? I think they do. Jaden Daniels is lethal. As you've seen last week in his return, back into the lineup, knocking off the Chargers on the road and lighting up both from his feet and in the air. Man, guy's a fun guy to watch. He's devastating for defenses. And he's the real deal. So I think it happens. I think they win comfortably.

I think the commanders are racing Formula One while the bears are racing go-karts. This is going not be much of a race here. They cover the 4.5. It does stay under 49.5.

I'm gonna go with Caleb Williams under. Yep, that's right, passing yardage under. 234.5 minus 114. Doing it. I'm gonna stick to it. Not changing, right? Not like that over in the Kansas City Detroit game. Not changing. Well, I mean, it's been a long time here. It's been like 56 minutes of talking. Your pleasure to you, I know. But we've gone through the card.

We look back in time at Thursday. But your Sunday NFL Bets week six podcast is coming to an end. I wish you the best luck. Shouldn't be luck. It should be best results, best payouts possible in your Sunday journey of what we do here. And that's the love of sports gambling. We love it. For you Canadians out there, and I'm one of them, enjoy your Thanksgiving. Enjoy that extra time to enjoy.

some Blue Jays action, Go Jays Go, and Sunday nighter, have a few cocktails for the overrated experience, and follow us at overrated, E-X-P-E-R-2, that's overrated, E-X-P-E-R-2. Pleasure's all been yours, the overrated experience is over, and out. Bye bye.