S4E13 - NFL Wk6 Thursday Bets

Week 6 NFL Thursday night bets episode has dropped.

• Can the Eagles cover 7.5pts over the Giants on the Road?
• Will the total stay under 40.5 
• We got Props Props and Props
• SGP play for Thursday

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Transcript

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Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin. This is the Thursday night bets NFL bets edition of the podcast. Welcome back. If you've joined us before, welcome. If you're a newcomer, this is a sports betting podcast called the overrated experience. Cause you might guess it. We like the overs and that's what kind of makes us an in between square and in between sharp betting podcast.

A sharp wants to use analytics, wants to use logic and reason to place his wagers. I try to do the best I can on that, but the square better gets caught up in the emotion, the intensity, the action, and I can't lie, that's me as well. So welcome to the overrated experience. can follow us on exit overrated, EXPER2. That's overrated, EXPER2. Let's get her going. Well first, before we get her going and talk about the Thursday nighter in the NFL, I'll let you know that we're

This podcast originates from the city of Toronto and we're celebrating a Toronto Blue Jays victory over the New York Yankees knocking off the Bronx bombers to head to the American league championship series awaiting the winner of the Seattle Mariners and the Detroit Tigers. I'm sure we could talk betting on that all day because that's what we like to do. But this focus is going to be NFL action. And we're going to kick it off talking about the results from last week, week five of the NFL. We had a pretty good over under week.

10 for 14. So listen in, listen tight and write it down. When I talk about some over-unders, again, the podcast name is based on the concept that we like overs. So we did pretty good on that last week. 10 for 14, not bad. Spread, eight for 14. And okay, so, so just over 500 on that one. What stands out to me this week that just passed, that's worth talking about.

And this is kind of the entire picture on the life of a gambler, the life of a sports better. And that was what we saw when the Tennessee Titans went to Arizona.

But if you have not seen how the Arizona Cardinals pissed away this game, please go back and watch. There are times in my life, there are times in my betting career where certain losses have really affected me where when you're watching the replays of the multiple fuck-ups that if you watch that replay long enough, will it change? Will that scenario where

You know, running back for Arizona Cardinals 76, 78 yard touchdown, decides not to drop the goddamn ball before he crosses the line, which is absolutely ridiculous. Can't believe we've seen that. Again, you know, we're going to the end zone and you flick the ball ready to celebrate and then replay states that you lost possession of the ball. The ball goes to the end zone and that started a, you know, almost like a,

What would you call it? A crumbling, ⁓ the piece of the puzzle being taken away, your legs being taken out. And from there, after ⁓ Tennessee gets the ball back, Cam Ward rolls out, throws an interception, the defender falls on the ground. He, without being touched, fumbles the ball. Two defenders for the Cardinals come over to try to retrieve the fumble. They actually kick it into the end zone and then

allow Tennessee to drop on the ball for a touchdown making it only now a two point lead. Then you add in you know a turnover I can't recall when it happened and that's so far last from Sunday you know right off ⁓ Kyler Murray's mask off a snap and then allowing Tennessee to drive so they can kick last second field goal absolutely disgusting Dan and coach gets fined a hundred thousand dollars from the Cardinals for striking

The running back who screwed up can't do that. I understand why I did it Can't accept it can't justify it can't touch your players, but you know, you know why he did it Again, not justifying it just thinking that we all want to do that if that happened you just can't do it

Sickening absolutely sickening and that I think takes a franchise back a step This cardinal team was teetering on being a mid-row type of team two and two Should be getting wins over teams like your Tennessee, especially at home and they absolutely pissed this game away That was one of the most ugly Situations I've seen it messed my teaser another parlay I had thought I was getting paid out Even took my attention away

from this game and they did a double take when I'm looking at the fourth quarter that the Titans had gone to with gone within two points of the Arizona just disgusting absolutely disgusting so that really hit me in the pocketbook there didn't throw my weekend off you know disastrous but see the ironic part is tonight this is the the square part of me is I took this crazy parlay where I had the Tigers Mariners over six and a half no problem that

that skyrocketed over. I had NHL kickoff, Leafs, Habs, over 4.5, alternative line, no problem, 5-2 finish there. And then I took the Jays-Yankees, the game I just talked about where the Jays have knocked off the New York Yankees. I had it at over 6.5 and it took to...

the bottom of the ninth inning, Yankees down 5-1, Aaron judges the plate, runner at second base 0-2, and he hits a double off the wall. you know, you get fucked over one way, and suddenly you get luck your way, and you get circumstances that are low percentage odds of you recovering, and it comes through for you. You always forget those, but remember those bad beats. bad beat, and now this one was kind of a miracle.

Come back for this guy here. So going into the props, we were six for 10. Some we were amazing on, I liked the ⁓ Baker Mayfield and Jay and Daniel's total yards passing and receiving, ⁓ plus those two together. No problem, they went above. Jarrett Goff passing yards, he smoked the line. And a couple losses, just didn't call it right. Daniel Jones.

had a successful day against the shitty Raiders, but could not put up the passing yards. But when it gets ugly like that, you know, the team's going to want to keep it on the ground. Those are the kind of plays that didn't work out, but had a pretty successful day outside of that. I'll just give you another example where I lost. So don't look like I'm just gloating on the things I did win on. Daniel Jones lost passing yards, also Pickens wide receiver for the Cowboys did not go over 52 and a half yards.

I think he only had two receptions. He had one long one so he was 50 plus but did not reach the 72 and a half which was surprising as the Cowboys blew out the Jets. Hit on Baker as I said, Jaden Daniels and goth whatever. And the last note here, you know, wrapping up week five is I was absolutely shocked on Monday watching the Jaguars

and the Kansas City Chiefs for three and a half quarters. And you know, the Jaguars were Jaguar. Am I saying that correctly? The Jags. I'm going to just go Jags. The Jags stuck in that game. Trevor Lawrence made a mistake, you know, reaching for a touchdown at the goal line earlier, giving up a fumble. The Jags D came through big time, big return for a touchdown. Patty Mahomes were still dealing. ⁓ But it really impressed me with

under two minutes to like the two minute drive where Trevor Lawrence made some tough throws. He made some tough runs, but he, he, he had it on a string, a bullet pass to Brian Thomas Jr. on a key, think it was third down for a first down, absolutely non Trevor Lawrence like, at least in his NFL days. And he made another throw, which was on Trevor Lawrence like, and it's shocking that, you know, you got to give credit where credit's due.

and he played like a franchise quarterback for those two minutes, which resulted in a goofy win because if he's seen how they score the winning touchdown, he steps back, his guard steps on his foot, he falls twice, but still gets up and rolls to the end zone to score the winning touchdown. So pretty impressive there for that two minutes. And maybe, just maybe, is Trevor Lawrence turning a corner? I don't know. We'll see. But impressive to say the least. Now, news since week five concluded, heading into week six,

One being that we had a trade in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals went out in a division, swapped late round picks with the Cleveland Browns to pick up Joe Flacco, quarterback for what was the Cleveland Browns now going into Cincinnati. But not, doesn't stop there. They've already announced that Joe Flacco is going to start against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Days, know, minutes, hours after ⁓

You know making the trade. He's our guy. He's going to be in the lineup. He's going to be taking snaps right away. Now what do I think of that? Well, I think it's a bold ballsy move by Taylor, head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals. Smart because I'll tell you why the Cincinnati Bengals going nowhere. You might say, hey, doesn't know the playbook. Is he taking a risk? There is no risk. Jake Browning has been absolutely horrid, horrible for the Cincinnati Bengals.

You have too many weapons on the Cincinnati Bengals team, too many Ferraris, too many Corvettes, too many like just high end talent to leave them with the shit that was Jake Browning. Now I didn't see this like drop off to this extent coming as Browning's been under there before as Joe Burrow's been out two seasons ago and he was decent, decent. He's been well below decent in his multiple starts with the Bengals and it's smart.

ballsy and don't wait you can't do worse by putting Joe Flacco in on a few days notice so that's an interesting note we'll see what happens there ⁓ Shredor Sanders just another we talked about him last week and kind of like his reaction Dylan Gabriel being the starter now that Joe Flacco was benched now gone and the question was to Stefanski the ⁓ Cleveland Brown said coach does that make Shredor your number two

He got a dancer out of it. didn't acknowledge that Shador was number two. ⁓ So it's interesting what is going on there. There was nobody putting a gun to the head of... to kill a fly. Sorry, I a podcast. Nobody put a gun to the head of the Cleveland Browns to draft the second quarterback in the same draft that they picked up Dylan Gabriel, but they did.

And when, as soon as they decided to pick up Shador Sanders, he was always going to be a story, right? Cause he's a name. He played in Colorado with his dad. He, he made a name for himself. He was projected potentially to be a first round pick early first round pick in slid. That was a story in itself. And now you're dancing around if he's number two. I mean,

I don't know if they're handling it the best way they possibly can. I know that they have to do what they need to do, but they've created this whole mess themselves. And I don't know what they're doing. So it'd be very interesting if they wind up bringing a practice squad quarterback to be number two, even though he was number three and he just didn't move up the depth chart. They bring in somebody off the practice squad, you know, maybe because it's a veteran. I don't know what they're doing. Cleveland is a little, ⁓

Little messed up as you might notice already. Well, anyway, that's the past. This is the future This is the future going into Thursday night and to let you know there will be another podcast dropped either Friday or Saturday and That will cover all of Sunday's action plus Monday two games to Monday and that will give you spread over under like I said 10 out of 16 over on her pay attention and player props and can't give you a lock-in amount that I'll provide you and player props and

Whatever stands out to me, I will provide. What's the prop I provide over a four and a... I'm just kidding. Anyway, going into Thursday night, we have the Philadelphia Eagles coming off a loss against the Denver Broncos, taking on the New York Giants. The Giants also coming off a loss. The excitement of Jackson Dart, the excitement of a win, first win of the season, dashed and put out that fire going into New Orleans, New Orleans, and then the Luzon.

and they lose and didn't look great. Didn't look horrible, but you know, Jackson Dirt looked like a rookie quarterback. Let's say that. Fumbles, turnovers, can't get the ball in the air. ⁓ You know, quick out of the pocket to run. A lot of things that rookies do, but he's there to develop. So what do we got coming into this week? Well, we also have an Eagles team that has to keep AJ Brown happy. Will that factor into my props? Find out, listen, two minutes from now, you'll understand. So,

Seven and a half is the line here. Philadelphia Eagles, our favorite divisional matchup heading into MetLife Stadium. And the over under is a low 40 and a half. So what do we expect to play here? ⁓ Eagles are four and one, right? But you know, there's a bit of panic here. Like I said, you have AJ Brown, who's kind of at a distraction, I guess you would say for this team. ⁓

4-0 before this loss. He was already upset that he was not receiving the attention the volume that a custom top receiver would get He's got a point. I mean if you got a Ferrari you drive it if you got a Corvette you drive it I and as a receiver, there's nothing much you can do unless the ball is thrown your direction ⁓ So many times in the history of watching the NFL You know from Randy Moss to Ocho Cinco

to Michael Irvin, to who else out there, like top guys, they want the ball. know, Jermar and Jamar chase you, Justin Jefferson, they want the ball and they'll make it known when they're not getting the ball or they don't feel like they're the ball enough and that's what A.G. Brown's doing. Eagles got to balance all these relationships. They're high profile team. So what do they do coming into this weekend? I gotta believe that the, you know, objective here

is that they got to believe that they got to open it up a little bit. Right. Even Saquon has really not put together a dominant game like we seen last year to make him the offensive player of the year. I don't think he's had 100 plus rushing yards. And I got to believe the first priority is to get the ball in his hands. So I do like him more from a receiving perspective.

And last week he scored a 57-58 yard touchdown out of the backfield ⁓ via a pass. And right now his receiving yards are only 16 and a half, minus 114. I like the over. I think it's way too low. And I think the Eagles have realized that I have to make Saquon a part of this offense. And if it's not running the ball, I'm going to get the ball in his hands one way or another. And with this Giants D-line,

You know, even rookie Abdul Carter having a successful rookie campaign. They're going to provide pressure to Jalen Hertz and Jalen Hertz is going to have the run pass option. A lot of dump ops. think a lot of design plays like we've seen against Denver that puts the ball in Saquon's hands multiple times. And I think he breezes over the 16 and a half, at least on one play and one play alone, much less multiple balls heading his way. So he'll be the focal point and will, ⁓

⁓ Will Brown be the focal point? No. I think there's problems there. I don't think it's going to be fixed on Thursday. And I don't know if we're going to see ⁓ Brown really necessarily ⁓ squash his displeasure for what volume he's getting. But I do think his counterpart there, DeVante Smith, will...

be focal point once again 100 plus yards in the loss against Denver is over under here 50 and a half minus 114. I like this to go over. think Donate Smith is a big time receiver. You know, obviously he was a Heisman Trophy winner for Alabama. Am I right on that? Yeah, don't don't have to Smith. Yeah, he was hasn't. Yes. Well, I'm drawing a blank here for the technology to check this.

That'd be great. ⁓ So I think he's going to be the factor in this matchup. I don't think we're going to see as much ⁓ Brown as you might think. And we're going to have drama, drama, drama that AJ Brown is going to bring up once again for the Eagles. But the Eagles get it done. The Eagles get it done. They cover that seven and a half. I think they win this game comfortably. I think they do want to put the ball in the air a little more and

I think it's gonna go over 40 and a half. The Giants will score their 14 points, whatever it may be. Let's call it like 30 to 14. And the Eagles get it done, they cover the spread. And one last prop for you on this one. I do like Jackson Dart rushing yards over 35 and a half. He is in the part of his career right now in the NFL where he is going to quickly drop back and if something's not there, he's going to make the safe play and take off.

and run and the last two games he's had 50 plus yards rushing himself. When I see a line of 35 and a half for Jackson Dart, I'm going to take the over. So to recap the props on there, Devontae Smith receiving over 50 and a half. AJ Brown, like I said, I'm not trusting that they will feed him the ball tomorrow. Saquon over 16 and a half receiving against his former teammates. He tore them up last year, but I just can't buy that he's going to tear them up again this year based on

what we're seeing so far this year and plus that D line is much improved for the Giants this year. And then Jackson Dart over 35 and a half yards rushing and then I got your same game parlay. You degenerates, you degenerate sons of bitches know that you shouldn't be doing the same game parlays but every sports book that you're involved in including FanDuel where these lines are coming from, they throw everything at you to incentivize you to make that sucker's bet and do the same game parlay.

I fall into the same trap when it talks about a 50 % bonus or a boost, sorry. I get caught up in it. I gotta do it, right? But I'm just as degenerate as you are when it comes to those same game parlay's. But we shouldn't. We should know better. But we don't, right? But if you gotta do it, let me give you some advice. So in this game, and I'm always gonna give you a plus, okay? I'm give you a plus, same game parlay. This one, I got three legs in this parlay.

Eagles money line, I don't think there's a question that the Eagles win this game. I don't think we see a surprise win like we did last week with San Francisco walking to LA and knocking off the Rams with all those injuries. Dallas Goddard, alternative receptions over ⁓ three plus or more, tight end for the Eagles. Like I said, that Giants D-line is no joke. Dallas Goddard is gonna be the best friend of Jalen Hurts.

reliable receiver short passage yardage at least three minimum and then throw in Saquon 10 yards alternate receiving total 10 or more yards receiving I like it I like it a lot $100 will pay you a profit of $128 well like I said this is the Thursday bet show this is the NFL Thursday bet show it doesn't last long I'm gonna sit back and watch the celebration

that is here in Toronto with the Blue Jays heading to the American League Championship Series. I'm wish you the best of luck and I'm gonna demand, outright demand that you guys follow us on X and let us know you're there at overrated EXPER2. It's overrated EXPER2. Follow the podcast on your provider so you know every time an episode drops and we're dropping one soon.

And we're also going drop one in the near future that covers the Netflix series about the Dallas Cowboys. ⁓ Interesting series that just wrapped up. So we'll get to that. So stay tuned. Pleasure's all been yours. The overrated experience is over and out. Happy Thanksgiving, you Canadians out there. Bye bye.