S4E12 - NFL Wk5 Sunday Bets

The Overrated Experience gives you picks from every game this Sunday & Monday.

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Review the Thursday night upset win by the 49ers.

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Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome back to the overrated experience sports and sports spending podcast. I'm your host Kyle blinded. It's another weekend of nonstop betting action here in the bullpen, the bullpen being the basement where currently we're watching some German bundas, Liga soccer. are watching some English premier soccer and we got college football on the horizon. got baseball playoff action, but you're here and I'm here to talk about the NFL.

week five betting action heading into Sunday and Monday. We got you covered to cover the whole car, looking at the point spreads, looking at the over unders. We got a few player props for you to consider and we're going to look back on the Thursday nighter that was and also touch base on some NFL news and some other takes that I may have at the top of my head. And that's just the way it's going to be. So welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. This is your sports betting podcast.

I usually kick it off by saying this is the square podcast. And now thinking about it more and more about should I call this podcast a square podcast? Well, the definition of a square better is ⁓ it's a slang term used to describe a ⁓ inexperienced better, basically the opposite of a sharp. And if you look at a sharp definition, which is a sharp better,

experienced professional or highly skilled sports better who consistently makes data driven value based bets not emotional or fan based. Well, when I reflect on what I do, reflect on who I am over the years and who I am today when it comes to the world of sports betting, I feel like there's a mixture in there. can't 100 % put my stealth in the square category.

have to think outside the box. Get it? Square better, outside the box. Get it? Okay, that's a little bit of sports betting humor. I have a lot of traits that are square, right? Emotional, ⁓ inexperienced. I got experienced. Some of it not great. Some of it is not the best, but I got experience. And I got a casual better. I'm a consistent better. And from the sharp perspective, I try to use data-driven decisions and fact-based, value-based bets.

Try to stay away from emotional, but I still have that weakness a lot of you have as well that emotion drives Some of your betting action, so I'm kind of caught in the middle here I'm more of the square side I guess not completely in the square if you think outside the box again another joke am I a squarp a square slash sharp or am I a square Where it's you know kind of the same thing, but just a different name you so I'm either a squarp or a square

You decide based on listening to the podcast to encourage you. In fact, they demand you go to our X page and that is X page. Is that really the term? Follow us on X at overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. That's overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. You don't have to remember. You can click in the description of the podcast. Follow us. Let us know you're following and give a shout out to the podcast.

So let me take my sip of coffee because I'm getting a little hoarse here.

And here we go. So NFL week five. Thursday nighter, if you joined us earlier in the week, had the Thursday night bets podcast. And how did we do? Well, it was a mixed bag. You know, you could say the least is nobody. can tell you nobody was on the 49ers heading into week five in the NFL season. They were ridiculously short handed at the receiver.

side of things. Brock Purdy on the bench. Matt Jones starting. The Rams coming off a big win over the Colts at home previous week. The Colts are red hot. And you look at the Rams as a contender. A potential threat to the Eagles. A potential threat to the Lions. So coming into this game there's a 7.5 point spread. And the 49ers outright won. I gotta give kudos. I gotta give a standing ovation to Kyle Shanahan.

Mac Jones, Christian McCaffrey, the receivers that were left over like Bourne and others, then Sanfran D. Absolute great performance. It's hard not to respect the effort, the game plan coming into this matchup to not just keep it close but dominate for the most part possession of the ball.

especially early on, the 49ers controlled. Mack Jones kept feeding Christian McCaffrey. What are you gonna do? That's the smartest thing you can do. You hand the ball to Christian McCaffrey, you throw it to him out of the backfield, you're expecting some big plays for those guys out in the receiving core that are not your starters, coming up with big plays, big catches, and that's what exactly happened. Mack Jones had a hell of a game, 300 plus yards.

and they come away with the win. Some of the outstanding bets we had where we had Mac Jones over two 16 and a half passing yards. Yep. No problem there. And Devante Adams longest reception over 20 and a half that hit that was late. It hit in the fourth quarter as Devante Adams, I think had one reception going into the fourth quarter when he started to become a focal point for Matthew Stafford in that passing offense. Puka didn't get the ⁓ volume.

that we're accustomed to. did not crack the 102.5 yards total yardage passing and receiving that we thought he would. Of course, this week he doesn't when I put the money on him. And also Devonte Adams scoring a touchdown. Thought they would find him in the end zone, couldn't do it, didn't get the win there. Our same game parlay was inches away from hitting and that was the Rams minus two and a half.

Under 54 and a half and Kyron Williams 50 plus rush yards. Now keep in mind, we had it. Williams had a late burst where he hit 60 yards and then as he's about to walk in the end zone, bam, fumble turnover. Absolutely critical point of the game. 49ers go down, get the ball back and they, from there, you know, the 49ers eventually take a field goal lead.

And the decision now is for McVeigh, for a nine-territory, fourth and one, do I go for it or I kick the tie and field goal? They decided to go for it, which is not uncommon here in the NFL in 2025. So they don't get it. And now the narrative is going to be for the next 10 days is Sean McVeigh making a poor fourth down decision. I don't think the fact that he went for it on fourth and one.

is the decision, I think it was the fact that it was a running play that was stuffed and it just didn't look good. However, in his mind, and I can see it, is they've been pounding the ball, you know, in the entire season with Kyron Williams, his old line, I'm sure he's had big time faith in, was gonna get the job done to get a yard. They didn't get it. He's gonna hang the blame on himself. They should have been able to get that first down. ⁓

So the narrative is going to be that Sean McMay fucked up huge. Maybe he did, maybe he didn't, but they should have been able to get that yard. The narrative for the 49ers is going to be for sure, is Mac Jones your quarterback? When Brock Purdy is ready to come back, what do you do? Well, what do you do? My prediction will be that the 49ers will let Mac Jones ride until he sucks. And if he sucks. So there will be no rush.

to pop Brock Purdy into the lineup once healthy. I don't think they'll rush him back. And I think Mack Jones will get a run. I mean, the jury to me is still out. mean, there's obviously gonna be, and I'm gonna say the word narrative many, many times about, know, Mack Jones, if he would have been with the 49ers instead of the Patriots, this is what we would have seen right from the get-go from the start of his career. I don't buy that necessarily. I think he's in his zone now.

but it can quickly fade.

at any point. That's how day to day the NFL is as far as you're the hero or the zero. And the 49ers do have what I do like about them. What they do have is they have the decision making of what they think is going to win them ball games and what's going to get them to the Superbowl or closer to the Superbowl. You know, you've seen that when they drafted Trey Lance, gave up a lot of draft picks, you know, moving up to get him.

But when it wasn't working out, made a quick decision to, they made it. Here's my phone going off during the podcast.

Sorry. So quick decision ⁓ from there to trade Trey Lance and move on from him and give Brock Purdy the job, even though he was the last pick in the draft. So they have the mentality that if they deem that they have to cut, if they have to move on, if they have to make a decision, they're not necessarily looking at the past as far as the contract they signed or the draft capital or trade capital.

They gave up. They're going to, they're going to make the decision based on what do you think is going to win? I think they'll stick to my, uh, Mack Jones for now, but very quickly go to Brock Purdy if needed. So that's, that's how I see it playing out. So that was the Thursday nighter. Very good game. Not bad. Pretty entertaining, surprising, but you got to give kudos to the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan and the game plan and the execution of that game plan by the guy, 11 guys on the offensive side of the field and the 11 guys on the defensive side of field. Awesome job. So.

Heading into week five of the NFL. Um, actually before I do that, that, that's the reason why you're here. I, again, I'm to throw it there. I'm probably going to do a special one-off, uh, review of the Dallas Cowboys Netflix series. I'm on almost, I'm onto the last episode. And again, if you're in my age group, 25, 26, no, I'm just kidding. In your late forties, grew up with the Dallas Cowboys. I'm trying to think.

I know the Patriots obviously had a big run with Tom Brady, but I don't know if we've had a team with the characters owner coaching controversy, ⁓ you know, off the field shenanigans, success, a team you wanted to see lose, but just couldn't lose. And when they did, you loved it. And they rebound and win a Superbowl. And that's the Dallas Cowboys during that era.

And then from that era on, 30 plus years, they can't even reach an NFC championship game. And you watch this documentary and you hear in the stories of the Jimmy Johnson transition to Barry Switzer, Jerry Jones's interaction with his players, the Big Three, Troy Aikman, ⁓ Emmett Smith and Michael Irvin. And then you sprinkle in Dion Sanders. It's a fascinating look at

that era of football in the NFL and the impact that these guys had to the game, especially during that 90s era, it was their era and then how it came to an end. So I'm

Kyle Blondin (12:06)
All right, we're going to get into Sunday card action here. I apologize that the podcast has a little bit of a breakup. I believe I was like three games into covering the Sunday until I noticed that there was no recording taking place. So that's very upsetting, very painful to go back and repeat myself, which I got to do here. So I apologize if the, ⁓ if there was a little bit of a mix up and it looks confusing, it's because the recording stopped. So we're going to kick off in the Sunday action. We're going to kick it off in London, England.

where the Denver Broncos will, no, sorry, not the Denver Broncos, man, see them all discombobulated. The Minnesota Vikings will visit the home Cleveland Browns. When I say home, that really means they're in London and Wembley. So Wembley or Tottenham, I don't know, whatever, who cares, they're in London. And the Minnesota Vikings are three and a half point favorites. The Browns are three and a half point dogs. And Dylan Gabriel, rookie quarterback, will be leading the charge for the Cleveland Browns. Minnesota Vikings,

Have a lot of injuries, especially in the O-line. This total is 35 and a half Very low. So what do we got here? I still believe that Kevin O'Connell the Minnesota Vikings coach I have more faith his game plan will allow the Vikings to beat the Cleveland Browns Dylan Gabriel We don't know what we're gonna get with him left-handed quarterback will get the ball out of his hands quickly probably more quicker than Joe Flacco and I do believe this game is gonna go over 36 points

despite Cleveland having a absolutely outstanding defense. So give me the Vikings three and a half. And I was talking on end in the previous podcast that didn't record of the controversy with Shudder Sanders, third string quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. You know, when asked about Dylan Gabriel, he was, you know, mocking using mime or whatever the hell he was doing to, you know, kind of like show his displeasure for not being the guy picked to start after Joe Flacco.

And I guess my thought on this, because there's a lot of people shitting on them, a lot of people that are negative toward them. You know what? It's the NFL is a cruel world. If know, Shadour Sanders gets in that under center at some point this season is lights out, nobody's going to care. They're going to think it's funny. It's going to go, Shadour Sanders, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You know, just like his dad, his dad was very outspoken, but he was prime time and he produced and nobody cared what he said.

It's like, holy shit, this guy come back. What he's talking about. But shorter standards. What I'll say to this is if he produces, nobody cares. You'll have a long, you know, at least to be, to do whatever the hell he wants, like any other superstar in any sport, but it's becomes tougher in the window. Very short. If his performance is not outshining the off the field stuff, no team is going to want a quarterback.

that it draws attention, especially if he's not a starting quarterback. So there's a fine balance here. He's shortening his window of opportunity. That doesn't mean if he doesn't get the opportunity, that goes wide open again. The NFL will pick you up, chew you, and spit you out, maybe right away, or maybe when they're done with you. So that's just the way it is. So we'll see what happens with Shredor Sanders and his career with the Cleveland Browns how it goes from there. Now we move on to the Houston Texans heading into Baltimore.

The Baltimore Ravens are without Lamar Jackson who has a hamstring injury. That's a keynote because the Texans are actually a point and a half favorite minus one 15 game 40 over 40 and a half. Cooper rush going to be quarterbacking the career quarterback. That's a backup spent a lot of time backing up in Dallas and actually getting a lot of reps and a lot of games where Dak couldn't stay healthy. So it's not like he is a nobody and could move this offense. I do believe Houston's going to cover this point and a half.

but I also think that there's going to be 40 and a half points over. So take the over there Lamar's out. I like CJ Stroud to pass for over 210 and a half yards minus one 14. That's your first prop of the day. Write it down. Now we go into new Orleans, two struggling football teams. One who has a win under their belt, the New York giants with Jackson Dart, new quarterback who will be the quarterback for the rest of the year. According to Brian Dayball, that coach of the giants.

visit New Orleans Saints. Saints are actually a point and half favorite. This game is listed at 41 and a half. What do I like here? I do like the Saints to cover. Jackson Dart had a successful debut, but that success was a lot of yards under the ground, a lot of help from the giant defensive line who's putting pressure and not allowing too much fluid, offensive, you know, fluid. I don't know where I'm going to go with that, but they gave the Chargers problems. So, and Justin Herbert.

So I think the magic runs thin here. The Saints get it done. They are producing points. I mean, they hung in there with Buffalo until the fourth quarter. I don't think the Giants are a very good football team, whether they are with Jackson Dart or not. But New Orleans gets it done. And the game stays under, 41 and 1 A little scoring game, ugly game. Probably don't watch it. Miami, heading into Carolina, Miami off the Mighty Niner short week.

Beating the Jets, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. And no Tyree kill. I'm sure you've seen the twisted knee, the cartilage, the chaos ⁓ last Monday night.

So it'll be without tarry kill, but the Carolina Panthers are gonna be without starting running back. Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard is out. And the Carolina Panthers suck. Just putting that out there, you know it, I know it. The Dolphins are not great either, but they have enough weapons I think they'll get by Carolina and cover the point and a half. This game will go over 44 and a half. I don't think Miami mind scoring points. It will try to keep it up and score about 30 points in this while Carolina may score about 17.

Moving on, Daniel Jones hosts and the Colts host the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders coming off of a loss against the Bears. What are the Raiders? What is Geno Smith? I think they're a team a little lost right now. The direction, they got to break it down offensively. They got to keep the ball on the ground. Gentry, you got to see what you have there. Plus 100 yards, first game that he showed what he brought, you know, similar to Boise State. And then Geno Smith, average quarterback.

man, he's an average quarterback. He's not your franchise quarterback. He's not your starter. He's an average quarterback at best. It's just the way it is. That's the way it goes. That's why Seattle said I'm fine to get rid of him. And he's an average quarterback, a placeholder until you can have a young quarterback to take your franchise to another level. And I think the quotes will cover the six and a half here. I think the game's going to stay under 47 and a half. Daniel Jones passing ours over 27.

227 and a half. He's done that all four games more than you know passing yards. I don't think it changes here. I'm not scared of the Raiders defense to be able to Jonathan Taylor and both Daniel Jones down. It's gonna be another long day and a lot of questions when it comes to Pete Carroll and the Vegas Raiders. We turn the page on to the next game, which is the game of the day potentially Denver Broncos heading over.

across the country to visit the Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl champion Eagles. Eagles are four and a half point favorite. The Denver Broncos coming off a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the Bengals suck. I think that just shows a little bit of false, that's a false narrative coming into this game. And I think the four and a half is very doable for the Eagles to cover. And I think they do. I think this game over under 43 and a half is low. I think there'll be points scored in this game. Philadelphia gets it done. They cover the spread. This game goes over.

No player props in this one. Dallas Cowboys heading into MetLife Stadium, not to take on the Giants, but to take on the New York Jets, the other resident of that stadium. George Pickens, I think will have a big day again. I like his over 72 and a half yard receiving. Now note, although I do like the Cowboys to cover the point and a half spread, for you batters out there, three offensive linemen are out, starting linemen for the Cowboys with another tie at.

Tyler Smith, questionable. So there is problems on that O line and that could be a problem. Even though I think that the Cowboys will get it done, it's an important note to know as you play some wagers on this game. This game I think is going to go over 47 and a half. Justin Fields will put up some fake numbers and make people believe maybe is he a starter quarterback? He's not a starting quarterback. He may be a starting quarterback, again a transitional like the Jets are probably in right now, but that's what he is. He's not going to be your guy that's going to get you past the top echelon of the NFL.

Tennessee heads into Arizona. Tennessee absolutely sucks at the moment. Cam Ward, know, fantastic talent that I think is probably being underutilized so far with the, you know, the Tennessee Titans. Probably new coaching staff will need to be put in there to get the most out of him. Cardinals getting done. They covered the eight and a half and the Skingles are 41 and a half minus 102. Tampa Bay, Seattle, you could consider this the game of the week.

Big match up, two, three, and one teams. Tampa Bay is a three and a half point underdog. I like Tampa Bay to cover that. I like this game to go over 44 and a half. I think there'll be a lot of points scored here. And Gimme Baker Mayfield passed plus rush over 246 and a half. He's going to put the ball in the air. He's going to be running. He's going to be running for first downs, big chunks like we see all the time. It's going to be the Baker Mayfield show. He'll get that prop done.

Remember, Bucky Irving is out for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rashad White will be carrying the load for the Bucs. And again, Mike Evans remains out. know, they're obviously Pro Bowl, future Hall of Fame wide receiver.

something to note now we get an interesting matchup Jaden Daniels looks like he's gonna return to take on the LA Chargers on the road Chargers are a two and a half point favorite ⁓ I Think the charges get it done, but I can be swayed either way I'm gonna say they're gonna cover the two and a half points I think it's gonna be a high scoring game forty seven and a half what I do love though is Pass and rush for Jaden Daniels to be two four two fifty five and a half minus one fourteen you'd have to be crazy

to not look at the Giants playbook, what was successful, ⁓ moving the ball against the Chargers last week with Jackson Dart's legs. And who's got better legs than Jaden Daniels? Not many NFL quarterbacks do, so I think that's gonna be a factor. That's why I couldn't just sit on the low total passing yards. I think there's gonna be a combination where Jaden Daniels gets it done. I'm assuming here he's fully healthy and he's ready to go. There's no limitation, so that's kind of where my mind's at on that. All right, so that's that and that's that.

We move on to the Detroit Lions visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Cincinnati Bengals absolutely horrible. Both sides of the ball. I don't know what they are right now. Can they turn the ship around? They are two and two, but they looked horrible at two and two. So the season is not over, but man, if they have any sort of resemblance to what they have the last few weeks, they're dead. They're dead in the water. Detroit Lions look to be peaking at this time. They are 10 and a half point favorites in this matchup.

Hard to not look at the Lions as covering this and kind of running away with it. I'm gonna take the Lions covering the 10 and a half. This game's gonna go over 48 and a half. The Lions do not take the foot off the gas. They will put up points. There is no quit, there is no stop with Dan Campbell in this Lions offense, this juggernaut. And the Bengals will put up some points, but I just don't think it's gonna be at the level where they'll cover that 10 and a half point spread. I do like Jarek Goff, passing yards over 239 and a half. That is another player prop. Take it, he's gonna be...

hitting his weapons and they're gonna produce big time. Big time. And then the Sunday nighter, we have the New England Patriots, maybe the second best team in the NFC East, which doesn't say much because the Buffalo Bills are still a mile ahead of every other team in that division, including the Patriots. They are an eight and a half point favorite and the Silver Unders 49 and a half. Give me the Bills under the lights, primetime football. This game to be a high score in 49 and a half. Nothing much else to talk about on that one. We all have a Monday nighter, big matchup, Kansas City, who look fantastic.

against the Baltimore Ravens. Looks like they're back, their offense is rolling. ⁓ Jacksonville, sneaky, win against the 49ers. Are they real, not real? They are three point dogs. I'm take the Jags to cover. I think you have a sneaky match up here that the Jacksonville Jaguars get the job done. They cover this spread some way somehow. This game goes over 46 and a half and we got a pretty entertaining Monday nighter. Lock it in. That's what I'm saying. All right.

overrated experience is done with week five. Hope you guys get paid off. Go to the window, cash in your checks, and that it's a very profitable weekend. The overrated experience is over and out. Bye bye.