NFL WK4 - Thursday Night Bets

NFL WK4 Thursday Night Bets covers the Seahawks vs Cardinals.

Both Teams are 2-1 and this is already a very import divisional matchup.

The Overrated Experience goes over our picks and plenty of Prop action.

We even throw in a Same Game Parlay for Thursdays matchup.

Enjoy!!

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:00)
Welcome back to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin. This is the sports betting square podcast where you the average better gets an opportunity to fall along with another better. That's me to look at this week's action in the NFL. This podcast is going to focus on the Thursday night game between the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Seattle Seahawks and all the bets prop bets, same game parlays that we like for that matchup.

Also take a quick look back at the NFL week three and some of the storylines that came out of there. Some of the bad beats, some of the wins and even some CFL rule changes that I want to touch upon. So follow the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast at overrated e X P E R two overrated e X P E R two. This is one of two podcasts will launch this week, either Friday or Saturday morning will launch the

second podcast that will cover all of the Sunday action with props and ⁓ Picks against the spread so tune in for that. I keep an eye out for that subscribe to the podcast and I'll repeat myself that this podcast if you haven't joined us before is Sports betting or sports topics is a football heavy At currently but it's not exclusive football as hockey comes into play soccer football basketball MMA

You can find a podcast that we put out that covers all the betting needs for those various sports. So stay tuned and here we go. So I don't know about you, but this weekend, week three in the NFL, beyond week three in the NFL, EPL soccer, Italian soccer, college football, baseball, I got smacked. I got beaten down.

I know you've experienced this many times the sports betters out there with nothing just goes your way. I can't tell you how many times this weekend I was one shot on target away from cashing in, know, 20 minutes go by and nobody is sniffing a shot on target. College football, like just an example, Arkansas up on Memphis and I needed them to, needed Arkansas to win a win a parlay.

I had going there up getting into field goal range. Sorry, they're down by a point getting into field goal range and with under a minute to go fumble turnover game over. That's my luck and how it went. I had California to ⁓ California and who were they playing? Who they have? they have Utah was at Utah that came to go over 40 points in a parlay had

with the USC and MSU, Michigan State University go over 34 nothing. A team who's favored by seven points gets shut out by 34 points. How is that predictable? How do I see that coming? And going into Sunday, ⁓ we'll touch upon some games that I don't care what handicapper is out there. There's nobody predicting some of these outcomes.

I don't care what Instagram account you're watching, what phone number you're calling, what payphone you're calling from, for these 1-800 numbers that you're paying for, there are some games and the outcomes that occurred on Sunday that nobody's seen coming. Alright, we'll get into that right now. So week three, some of the standout situations where I got spanked, where I took to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots would go over the mark of 42 and a half. This game ends 21-14.

This is I think 14-14 and a half time or 14-7 something like that but all I know is that the New England Patriots turn the ball over five times, five times! A professional football team fumbles, gets picked off, whatever way to turn the ball over five times in a single game. Two of those on the one yard line or at least the one or second yard line, it's unthinkable.

So there goes piss away another ⁓ payout there. ⁓ I'll tell you right now, the Atlanta Falcons getting shut out 30 to nothing by the Carolina Panthers. There is no, nobody's seen that coming. How can you possibly look at the data? How can you analyze looking at past performance, looking at the two teams coming off a week two where Atlanta

absolutely, precisionally runs the ball over Minnesota, squeaks out a win there, but comfortably in control both on the defensive side and the offensive side. Carolina getting shellacked by the Arizona Cardinals making a late comeback, but at the end of the day they do a Carolina Panther thing is and that's lose. Host the Atlanta Falcons and shut them out. Shut them out. And this was like a play for me that was an in game.

play thinking, Falcons are down, 7-0, this is a blip on the radar, there's good value, there's plus money, don't worry I'll just parlay this with later on the Cowboys, which is its own problem in itself, and it just kept getting worse, worse and worse. Michael Pennex is eventually pulled for Kirk Cousins, but Pennex will remain the starter. Nobody's seen this coming, disgusting by the Falcons, and ⁓

Just this tells you how unpredictable football can be at most times. So that was ugly. But most sports bettors, most professional gamblers are going to talk about the Rams, Eagles, and many, many of the sharps, the experts, were laying three and a half with the Rams. So that, you know, it came upon the Rams, before we get came upon a field goal down there, the Rams,

Had a big lead heading into the third quarter. Eagles chip away, eventually come back. Rams set up shop to kick a field goal, which would put them up one. But you know what? The Sharps don't care. If they had the Rams plus three and a half, miss field goal, who cares? The Rams lose by, with, cover the spread. Doesn't matter. Instead, blocked field goal, run back for a touchdown. Many are saying one of the worst beats in a long time.

Definitely the worst bad beat so far in the 2025 season. There is a lot of people that most likely What how do you call it? Like maybe lost their house lost a mortgage on that particular game So I'm sorry for you for your loss everybody out there, but that's the reality of sports gambling

Green Bay killed many, many, many survivor pool folks out there. Blowing ⁓ a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter. The Cleveland Browns come back to tie it up. Green Bay sets up for a winning field goal. McManus ready to kick it. Green Bay is blocked. Browns block it. Joey Flackle leads the team down the field. Kick the winning field goal.

And many of you who are listening to this podcast, and there are millions, there are millions, are out of your survivor pool. Thank God. Thank God I took the Seahawks. Because they handle this, the New Orleans Saints pretty easily. What a joke game that was, the Seahawks absolutely beating down the Saints 44-13. This was 14-0 very quickly. This was very safe.

⁓ survivor pool pick so thank god i picked the seattle seahawks bears dismantle the dallas cowboys there is red flags everywhere when it comes to the dallas cowboys they didn't give it didn't sniff caleb williams at all they let him deal back there no pressure because guess who folds under pressure caleb williams of the bears he folds under pressure and guess who the cowboys had that would have been the perfect fit

to provide that pressure. Michael Parsons no longer with the Cowboys, didn't want to pay them, sent them off to Green Bay, now they have no pass rush whatsoever and they got lit up. One in two Cowboys.

And the Chiefs, well, the Chiefs sent the Giants packing and most importantly sent Rusty Wilson packing. He's going to be riding the bench. Jackson Dart, first round pick of the Giants will be the number one. Going forward, rookie quarterback in New York leading the charge for the Giants. Scataboo running back will be the tandem. Two rookies in two big profile offensive positions. We'll see how that plays out.

I don't think it's going to play out well for Brian Dayball. He's not going to, I can't see him saving his job. Even if Jackson Dirt starts to develop, I think it's time to move on from that for sure as a head coach. And I'm going to throw this out here and you, you hit me up on overrated E X P E R two on X for overrated experience. And that is watching the lions on Monday night win 38 30 pound for pound.

They have the most entertaining offense, easy on the eyes offense to watch in the NFL. Yes, when you go to Baltimore, you do have the flashiness of, let's say, Lamar Jackson. Let's say, Derek Henry in his long, powerful runs for 30, 40-yard chunks.

You have Jaden Daniels in Washington who's exciting. You have Josh Allen who's lights out in Buffalo. But when you watch this Lions offense, you got the one, two punch from Montgomery and Gibbs in the backfield. You got the ⁓ La Porta tight end. ⁓ St. Brown and the receiving core is outstanding. Jerrick Goff is a drop back, quick quarterback, quick throwing quarterback, exciting to watch.

They the game plan they come out with either is a combination of smashing in the mouth by running the ball trickery gutsy calls and fourth down Dan Campbell, you know putting up a middle finger basically to the public who questioned that he wouldn't survive necessarily without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn his offensive and defensive coordinators from last year who've left and additional coaches that have also left the staff for other opportunities

Well, he gave a big fuck you to everybody out there because that team looked fantastic, exciting. And am I a Lions fan? No. Am I a Dan Campbell Lions fan because I want to watch them in prime time television? You're absolutely right. That they have a lethal offense, exciting offense. And when you compare it to what you watch on the Sunday night or with the New York Giants.

not even close, not even the same atmosphere, stratosphere atmosphere. Stratosphere as the Detroit Lions offense, the creativity, the preparation, the planning, the risk, it's outstanding, enjoy the Lions, I consider them the number one entertaining offense in the NFL. So, I'm gonna talk a little CFL here. The CFL,

for you folks that don't know, who are listening outside of Canada. It's called the Canadian Football League. It's been around for over 100 years, older than the NFL. lot of tradition here in Canada. And what stands out in the CFL is different rules, different field dimensions, even a different size ball. Three downs versus four downs, 110 yard field versus 100, wider field, all those kinds of things that are...

Unique to Canadian football. There's nine teams. There's not 32 like in the NFL, but there's nine teams, many of which have been around for over a hundred years. Now the announcement on Monday was that some changes to be incorporated over the next two seasons, not this season, but the following season include shrinking the field of play from 110 yards to a hundred yards, shrinking the end zones from 20

to 15 yards. Also moving the goal post from the front where the beginning of the end zone on the goal line, that's where the uprights are, the field goal uprights today are. They will be like probably in two years that change will take place and it will be moved to the back similar to the NFL. benches right now in the CFL, they're both on the same side.

So it's not like the NFL where they're opposite, but it will change the opposite. There's going to be a 35 second ⁓ running clock, play clock, which is different than today where there's a 20 second ⁓ play clock that starts on the referee whistle, which probably slows things down a lot. And that's a lot of the, and the Rouge, the Rouge, if you haven't heard of the Rouge, it's a single point. And a lot of American media picked up on that the Argos

won a game recently, the Toronto Argos beating the Saskatchewan Rough Riders, a tie game that was won because of a missed field goal that went out of the end zone, which counts today as a single point. Sounds weird, but that's how it's always been. That rouge, that one point will change to only be awarded to a team if the offensive player, let's say, receives a punt or a kickoff and has to kneel or gets tackled in the end zone. That's the only time.

that the point will be awarded not when the punt rolls out of the end zone or the field goal is missed and rolls out of the end zone. That will no longer add a point for that team. a lot of, I think it's about 50-50 what I'm hearing. I personally think these are interesting, creative, and rules that I find very interesting. The Canadian Football League still maintains three down football.

not four downs like the NFL. The width of the field is still the same size it is today, which is much larger than the NFL field width wise. just outside of that, it's like, the ball's the same. It's, there's actually even a, what's going to remain the same. There's a, there's a quota of Canadian players that need to be on, ⁓ each team's rosters. So I feel that it hasn't lost its Canadian feel with the announcement of these new.

rules and changes etc. I think there are enhancements improvements and excited to see what can happen when these rules get implemented and the field configuration gets changed. So if you didn't think you were going to hear some CFL information you're wrong because you just did. Moving on to the Thursday nighter which you're all here about and what do you want to hear what I have to say not shockingly is we have a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals in Arizona divisional matchup

The Cardinals are 2-1 while the Seahawks are 2-1 so it's a very big game between these two teams in this division. The 49ers of course are 3-0 so they're chasing the 49ers and the Rams who are 2-1 as well. So very, very critical game here. Now the interesting part about the spread here is it's flipped. So the Cardinals at the start of the week came in as the 1.5 point favorites. Now it's flipped.

The Seahawks are 1.5 point favorites heading into this game. Most likely James Connors news running back for the Arizona Cardinals that he's out. Out. He's out. For the whole season he's done. Ankle surgery. Big loss for the Cardinals. And I think really affected the line here. So looking at these two squads, have I been impressed by Arizona? Not really. I mean...

They still got issues with Marvin Harrison Jr. dropping easy receptions, hindering the team. They lose their top running back. McBride's, tight end McBride's is outstanding. But I think they are coming in a little bit banged up, obviously, for the Cardinals. ⁓

Everything's leaning toward the Seahawks in this one. So give me the Seahawks. Give me Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. They're on a roll right now, smacking the New Orleans Saints big time. They'll cover the point and a half. I was tempted to look at the over-under of 43 and a half and say, this is going to be like a 2017 game. And then I thought, ah, what do I want more? I think there's going to be a little bit of an explosion here. think Kyler Murray is going to have to go to the air a little more.

He's gonna have to the ball in his hands, he's gonna have to use his feet. I think that will spur some offense. The Seahawks have been putting up points in their last two games against Pittsburgh and New Orleans. I don't think that changes. So I like the over 43 and a half to be covered there. Now we get into player props. I got three that I like heading into this game. Now that is the main guy, the main receiver for the Seattle Seahawks, Jackson Smith and Jigba. He has

been the massively favorite receiver of Sam Darnold. And I like his over-under for receiving yards over 84.5 minus 114. He is crushing it right now. 100 plus last game against the Saints. He is the guy. He is the main guy. And let me add in, let me parlay, no, not parlay, let me double down on the Njigba props here. I like Njigba's over longest reception, over 25.5 yards.

Right now, over three games to kick off the year. His longest reception has been 40 plus each of these three first games. So I like 25 and a half. He's a target. He's an impact player. And you would have heard more of him if he wasn't playing in Seattle. But he is a beast. So watch out. And those are good value plays from the overrated experience. And the last one, player prop, I got Kyler Murray rushing yards 27 and a half over.

He's been plus 30 yards each of his three games. I don't think it goes down. I think it goes up without James Connor. I think the pass rush for Seattle will at least allow one or two times where they do not get to him, where he breaks it open for a lengthy run.

And I think the Cardinals will be in a situation where unlike the last three games, two of which they've been leading, three of which has been a tight, tight, tight game with the 49ers, that they will be in a chase scenario where they probably have to put up points, more points, maybe have to get a touchdown ⁓ versus just getting a field goal range. So I like the idea of Kyler Murray.

putting the ball on the ground. so is Kyler Murray going to be taking off using his feet? And you guys like your same gay parlays, your SGPs, which I have to warn you are not the best thing to do in sports gambling. You're giving the book what they want. If you've noticed and if you've read up on your sports gaming industry news,

many of the topics where the sports books are trying to push more and more same game parlays, they're trying to fuck you with the odds in the same game parlay, if you've noticed it sometimes when you're picking selections, and this is me speaking using FanDuel, that sometimes they make a a prop that is available, suddenly it's not available because you can't configure these picks together. What's up with that? And I

I haven't sat down into the math, but some of the odds you, some of the choices you make that have better odds in your favor, but you add or take out the total amount you're going to win doesn't make sense. So keep an eye out for that. You're kind of getting screwed with the same game parlay, but let's do it anyway. So here's my three legs, same game parlay. I'm always going to give you even money or more.

So this is more around the even money portion of it. So take Njigba wide receiver Seattle Seahawks alternative receiving yards 60 plus 60 or more. Then put in Seattle alternative line ⁓ alternative spread which I'll put Seattle is plus six and a half. So as long as they don't lose by six and a half and remember they're a one and a half point favorite and the game to go over 34 and a half. $100 will pay you $106. I've needed some good value there. I think it's

a very, very good same game parlay that was going to hit on Thursday night. Well, until Thursday night, we're going to shut her down. Pleasure's all been yours. The overrated experience can be followed on X at overrated EXP overrated EXP error 2. I expect you to sign up, follow, and let's go. Remember, going to drop another podcast to look at the rest of the games on the weekend, either Friday or Saturday.

So be ready for that. So let's go. Let's get some wins. Let's get to the window. Let's get paid out. The pleasure's been yours. The overrated experience is over and out.