S4E7 - NFL WK3 - Thursday Night Bets Dolphins @ Bills

The Overrated Experience has you ready for wk3 Thursday night NFL betting action.

Dolphins are a ticking time bomb... Tyreek Hill will not be in a Dolphin uniform by the end of the season.

Buttttttt...... 11.5 point spread??? is that too much?

Listen to the Overrated Experience and find out.

Follow Overrated Experience Pod on Twitter @OverratedExper2

Join the Overrated Experience Sports Betting Facebook Page

Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/overratedexperience/

Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin. We are back for week three of the NFL kicking off Thursday, Buffalo host the Miami dolphins, one team going one way towards the super bowl and one team going the wrong way. The Miami dolphins. Welcome back to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. If you have not joined us in the past and if you joined us before, thank you. But, this is your square.

view of the sports betting world. Yes, we're going to focus on the NFL over the next little while, but we're not limited to that. We talk everything sports gambling. have our weaknesses. We have our strengths just like you as an average sports better. So that's what you're buckling up and ready to hear today. And we're going to walk through week three of the NFL Thursday nighter. As I talked about at the beginning, we're also going to take a quick look back at some of the news and notes coming out of

week two and the weekend that was an NFL action. And you can follow the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast on exit overrated E X P E R two that is overrated E X P E R two. Here we go. survivor pool this year, I think most of us, many of you are still alive. There has not been an upset that I

can really think of as a significant upset. There are some folks out there that may have joined survivor pools and not aware that the Miami Dolphins are not great and probably bet them or took on week one against Indianapolis. And there's some other games out there like I can't envision many people knocked out. So good luck to everybody out there. took ⁓ this week, the Detroit Lions now.

The lions face a huge test coming up this week against the Baltimore Ravens, but they were the prime team to take in my opinion that you could save some of those other teams like Baltimore and Buffalo. So that, ⁓ think gosh, I'm alive and I'm happy about that. And then when it comes to the weekend that was of week two, the NFL significant injuries that have changed the course of time for many.

franchises out there that had aspirations of playoffs maybe aspirations of Super Bowl in February well squish that is gone Cincinnati Bengals have lost Joe burrow for at least three months due to a turf toe injury grade 3 I believe that will require surgery and Jake Browning the backup quarterback will be in

for the majority of the season unless something else happens. He did throw three interceptions in a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It tells you how well the Jaguars are and how they performed last Sunday. But the Bengals got to be crushed. Joe Burrow once again, once again. I know it's not his fault. However, he's quite the injury guy, right? You know, he's always, you know, he's maybe like glass, maybe bruises like a peach. I don't know, but he is done for a while.

And we won't know if we will see him again in the 2025 season. Justin Fields is out with a concussion and the Jets will go with Tyrod Taylor. And then you have the commander's iffy if Jayden Daniels will play. Apparently had a knee injury. A lot of things going on banged up and ⁓ could change the course. If Jayden Daniels is somehow banged up and is not mobile for the commanders.

They're in trouble and their season's gone. ⁓ we'll see what happens with him and, the game of the day on Sunday was the Cowboys giants, all the good things that Russ Russ, he did Russ Wilson looking like old Russ against Seattle. Like he does every so often. He has that glimpse, the image and the hopes that he can retain the form of yesteryear poof goes up in the goes up and smoke.

throws absolutely a horrible interception in overtime. Giving the Cowboys the ball. All they need to do is kick a field goal. Brandon Aubrey already kicked a 64 yard field goal with ease to tie the game up earlier in the fourth quarter. And all the good that that giant offense produced and all the good that Rusty Wilson had produced has gone down the shitter. So Giants are back at square one.

They're 0-2, host the Chiefs this Sunday. So that was the game of the day. Some other news and notes and trying to think, ⁓ Chiefs are 0-2, wow. But you see how many people are jumping off the Chiefs bandwagon and rating them off? Let's not get ahead of ourselves, folks. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, folks. Remember that the New Orleans Saints last year were 2-0. And it didn't end too well for them, did it? So very early on.

The Chiefs will rebound starting this Sunday with a win over the Giants and really disappointed in the two Monday nighters we had here ⁓ this past Monday because they're Monday nighters that happened on Monday. That makes sense. Tampa Bay and Houston started out as back and forth scoring points. You know, for those who bet the over like this guy and fade it, you know, mid second quarter in

really didn't do much until the late fourth quarter stages so wow that that game looked like it was going to be amazing and then it just fell flat but Tampa Bay does win the game Houston man CJ Stroud he looks hesitant he looks slow he does not look like he does not look like he is comfortable in the pocket like he did in year one so

That's gotta be a red flag for Houston Texans fans. They just have nothing going on. Houston is so bland offensively and ⁓ they gotta get something going here because they're gonna lose this season and be a blah, maybe a playoff team, maybe not in a crappy division, but something's wrong there. ⁓ The Raiders and ⁓ Chargers, Chargers can't easily win, right?

Vegas doesn't put in much of a fight and I don't know what the Raiders like I get the trade to bring in Gino Smith and I'll go through my bets and how we did but first play of the game pick, right? First play of the play, guess who said to take that prop? This guy. Gino Smith is very predictable and there's a handful of quarterbacks.

Gino Smith being one, Danny Dimes in Indy is another and he will show this as time goes on. They have an issue with not letting a play go and put themselves in bad positions to throw a pick. It's almost like a gambler that just has to chase, right? Just cannot call it a day. Can't say I'll get you next time. He got me this time. I'm going to walk away and start fresh and you know, move about my day.

That's not Gino Smith. That's not Danny Dimes. There's a few other quarterbacks like that, just not, not, not playing quarterback. Like it makes sense. the Raiders bring in Gino Smith. They, they bring in Gentry, you know, first round pick at a Boise state. You think they would hammer the ball on the ground, be a running team and then compliment a veteran quarterback like Gino Smith. It feels like Gino Smith.

has to get a quota of throws in and it doesn't make sense. The flow of the game should dictate what weapons you're going to use on a week to week basis. And with Geno Smith, feel it doesn't matter. He's going to the air 75 % of the time. Like if you watch the Sunday nighter, the Atlanta Falcons, I'll give credit to who credits due, they looked at the situation that Bijon

Robinson just hand him the rock. He's going to get the yards sprinkling a few throws here there and But we're to win with B John Robinson because we have a JJ McCarthy led Vikings team that is not moving the ball and I'm going to dictate my offense accordingly based on the games going it just Doesn't seem to be happening with the Raiders and Gino Smith so Red flag there in my opinion

And then you look at my week of success, my picks against the spread, 12 and 17, very successful. Kudos to me, pat myself on the back.

Parlay player props still I was eight five hundred eight sixteen But cut you know just just not hitting him right now Don't don't have a good feel for it at the moment, but I'll give you some more that are coming up on Thursday And it reminds me well, we're gonna put together another podcast to talk about the Sunday games the picks Over unders and more player props, so we'll be ready for that and we'll go for that subscribe to the podcast Also over unders 11 for 16 so it's pretty successful there

Took a little more of the underside, which I don't normally take and seem to be successful. So can't be biased to the overs, even though it's called the overrated experience for a reason, because I'm biased to the overs. So that's ⁓ how it looks successful weekend. As we head into week three, we look at the Miami dolphins who are heading to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Two and O Bills, O and two Miami dolphins.

Dolphins coming off a crushing loss. I'm to say crushing because their offense started going, started clicking, Tyree kill, a hundred plus yards receiving exactly what they need to win. But Tuwa just can't get the job done. Throws an absolute ugly interception late in that game costing the Dolphins any chance to knock off the Patriots. ⁓ This is a time bomb in Miami and

If they can't, like, they're 11 and a half point underdogs here in this game. Even though was at 12 and a half to begin the week down to 11 and a half. I think the only thing they got going for them is their desperation. The fact that the Bills are on a short week. Looked like Josh Allen broke his nose against the Jets.

And the only way I could see them covering this 11 and a half is because of the short week and lack of preparation. But the Miami Dolphins are taking time bomb. Honestly, they're probably not going to win this game based on, you know, one team is way better than the other. Simple. But I, this, this, if they go 0 and 3, it's pretty much season over for the Miami Dolphins. Let's not kid ourselves. There's, there's no.

This is not like a Kansas City Chiefs situation on one two where, you know, things are looking up. I got Patty Mahomes, I got Faith, they got history on my side. That Miami Dolphins team does not. And guess what? They don't get better with cold. So they usually excel in September and October. And the more they don't excel, they tend to expire. So this is a huge game for the Dolphins. When I look at the spread of 11 and a half,

It's gotta mean that money's coming in on the Dolphins. I do like, this is crazy, after last Thursday getting burned with Jaden Daniels, riding Jaden Daniels and the Commanders and nothing worked out my way, Packers dominated that game from start to finish. But I'm gonna be crazy enough, I'm gonna roll with it. And I'm gonna say the Dolphins will cover the 11 and a half. Again, based on a short week, the Bills probably wanna get a little, ⁓

you know, we can early weekend action going in their private lives. So let's assume that they're not interested in running up the score, maybe like it was against the jets. And once they put the foot on the throat and have a comfortable lead, I got to imagine it's going to be handed off to James Cook. A lot of keep the clock running and not necessarily worry of covering that 11 and a half. So let's take the dolphins at 11 and a half. Let's look at the dolphins.

putting up some points and you look at some key injuries from the Buffalo Bills, Matt Milano, linebacker out, pectoral issue, defensive tackle at Oliver out. That can't help prevent, you know, the Dolphins putting up points. I'm putting a lot of faith into was not going to go get desperate and start taking off and putting his head down and trying to gain an extra yard. Like we've seen in the past. And then suddenly his

He's been carried out in a stretcher due to injury. So I'm banking on staying in this ball game, putting it up enough yards to make this somewhat of a watchable game on Thursday. So I let the game go over 49 and a half. 49 and a half is what I think is going to happen. There's a lot of points going to be put on the board here. And I like it. I like it a lot.

So add to that we got our player props. So Tyreek Hill has been back his prop is down to 64 and a half minus 114. I gotta go to You know I gotta go to the well. Tyreek Hill demands the football. Tua only hope to be successful is to get the ball in Tyreek's hands. And I am still convinced Tyreek Hill is not gonna be in a Miami Dolphin uniform.

by the year's end or by the end of the trade deadline. Just can't see it happening. Don't see why Miami would want to retain them. And we need to see Tyree kill in a playoff chase and a contender. Also look at Tyree's still longest pass reception over 22 and a half yards minus 112. He tends to load up in big chunks. You will catch and receive or just receive a long pass, but know, expect him to potentially take a short pass and break it open.

Tyree Keele burns the Bills at least one or two plays in this game. From the Buffalo side, Josh Allen over 29 and a half yards rushing. ⁓ Two games in a row, he's overdone it here over 29 and a half ⁓ yards rushing. And why would it change here? So I think that's pretty decent play at minus 1.14. James Cook running back for the Buffalo Bills, his three touchdowns in two games. I like his rush.

and receiving yard total over 86 and a half yards. Game one of the season against Baltimore didn't have many rush yards, put up some receiving yards along with rush yards exceeding 86 and a half. His rush yards alone against the Jets succeeded 86 and a half. He's a major player in this Buffalo offense. That's not a news flash. That's not breaking news. So look at James Cook to have a big monstrous day as well. And again,

as the Bills probably lead the majority of this game, the Bills are gonna wanna keep the ball on the ground and probably keep it in the hands of James Cook. And for you, same game parlay, aficionados, here's one. It is heavy based on the Dolphins moving the ball, which could be to my detriment, but I'm gonna do it anyway. What the hell? It's called gambling. some balls.

Dolphins alternative line plus 20 and a half again I think this game is gonna be closer based on being a short week and the desperation of the Miami Dolphins and the Bills looking to get a comfortable lead and then maybe squeeze the clock versus putting the ball in the end zone. Tyree kill 50 plus yards receiving and that the game two level throw in the game two level throw 200 yards plus you know in the air.

That $100 will turn into $104 profit based on it being plus 104. So when I give you the same game parlay, these will be plus. Not a shock. Maybe it's not a plus 1800 that many of you take on these same game parlays, but this puts you into a better position to get a payout, at least even money.

That is it guys. That is where we stand. Again, follow The Overrated Experience every day of your life on X at overrated, E-X-P-E-R-2. That's overrated, E-X-P-E-R-2. We are also on Instagram at overrated experience. Follow us, let us know you're there. And we're gonna be back this week. So check us out when we look at the larger ⁓ card for Sunday and Monday. ⁓

Hopefully I'll be ready to tell you who my Survivor Pool pick will be. Would it be the Bills this Thursday? Maybe. Is that the obvious choice or are they going to overlook the Dolphins? So I'm a little iffy on taking the Bills here. So pleasure was all yours. The Over-Raid Experience is over and out. Bye bye.