NFL Week 2 - Thursday Night Commanders & Packers betting preview

Its the start of wk 2 in the NFL and we get you ready for all the betting action.

The Overrated Experience likes Jayden Daniels and the Commanders chances in Lambeau this Thursday.

In the pod we cover:

• Picks against the spread
• Over Under
• Props
• Same Game Parlay

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:02.196)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports betting podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin It's the start of week two in the NFL and we're here to give you your betting insight action on the action happening on Thursday night commanders Packers Amazon Let's go if you haven't joined the overrated experience sports betting podcast before you can follow us on exit overrated e Xper 2 that's overrated e Xper 2

And also on Instagram at overrated experience. You're joining a podcast. If you haven't heard this before, that is a square point of view from a betting perspective. We mainly focus on football for the most part, but we do go off until all sorts of sports, NHL, soccer, basketball, baseball, whatever it gets us paid. So welcome to the overrated experience. Last week, if you missed it, we had a few podcasts that led you up to week one. I hope you had a great week one.

Tell me, tell me how it was. Tell me what your record was. I can tell you right now and I'll be very transparent and very embarrassed about the props or an absolute disgrace. The props were an absolute disaster and almost worth a cancellation of this podcast off into the sunset, never seen again. But then I thought to myself, hell, it's week one. We all have our stories of a rough week.

And my rough week just happened to be in the first week of the NFL season. I'll get to a record in a second to all you survivor pool players out there, AKA suicide pools. Pretty safe weekend compared to week one of the NFL season last year. No real upsets. I know I took the Cincinnati Bengals and I might, I, I, took the Bengals in the bigger pool I'm in and the way they squeak through.

I am lucky to go on to week two. Absolute disgust, disgusting, deplorable way that the Cincinnati Bengals handled that game. Should have lost, missed extra points and field goals and a couple of interceptions that were kind of tip balls.

Kyle Blondin (02:21.748)
absolute like I owe somebody something up there upstairs help me out some way somehow because I should have been eliminated in week one but I'm not and I'm not gonna apologize for it so I hope you guys had an opportunity maybe take a game that you didn't have to sweat it maybe took the Colts to spank the Dolphins maybe you took the Bills and Ravens which you'd be stupid if you went to week one chose one of those teams Bills went up winning by a point made your comeback

Vikings show some maxi, look like a tale of two games there. J.J. McCarthy looked horrible in the first half. Caleb Williams look pretty good in the first half with Ben Johnson, new head coach of the Bears. And then things flipped. Mostly late third quarter, fourth quarter. J.J. McCarthy started to look like an NFL quarterback. Caleb Williams look like what Caleb Williams is. And it's a Bears fan, man. It sucks. you can't think of a more...

Parkour NFL city than the city of Chicago the memories of Jim McMahon the fridge in 1985 winning a Super Bowl and from there, know, we've had a you had a trip to the Super Bowl but a lot of disappointment from that point on and You go into last year you make the right pick You would have been crazy not to take Caleb Williams, even though

Maybe there was a few people out there that said Jaden Daniels was your guy. I'd be hard pressed to think that they wouldn't take Caleb Williams. And he's still in the developmental stage. Well, the second overall pick from last year, Jaden Daniels, is on that track to take a team potentially to the Super Bowl or that next level. And you don't really hear the words development when it comes to Jaden Daniels. You hear explosive, game changer, franchise quarterback.

Those questions that Caleb Williams needs to answer seem like they're far in the rear of your mirror for Jaden Daniels. And we'll get to Jaden Daniels. He's going to be a part of this podcast aplenty. And this podcast is going to focus on the Thursday nighter only. We're going to get to another podcast, possibly two, to cover both picks going into Sunday and or a separate podcast or combo like we did last week.

Kyle Blondin (04:45.294)
to try and take another chance, give me another chance, please, cut me a break, pretend week one didn't happen, that we're gonna talk about props. And just to tell you how bad it went, my overall props, I gave out 22 props last week, eight of which cashed in, 36%, absolutely junk. I did a little better on the picks, 62.5%, and that was, was it 23, four, 26? No, that's not it.

Either way, math's off, but I got the percentage, 63 some odd percent for the picks. Let's do better, okay, let's do better. And let me know what sports bet, you know, sports book you're using out there. Now I've been predominantly using FanDuel for this week. That just happened to be the book I have dollars invested in.

Shout out if you found any good promotions on some of the sites. It's kind of dried up, if you've noticed. Not like it was back in the day, right? These books are now little sneaky on the way they're calculating odds. They're pushing you to same game parlays. Really not the same world that you betters know from previous years. You know, the benefits of these new sports book and the legalization.

is easy access to deposit not running down to a Western Union to send a money order off overseas to bet 365 to deposit in your account. That's a benefit.

But the odds are such dog shit now that you're hard pressed to really come up with a good, good amount of games that you feel comfortable with the spreads, odds, and, the trust that they feel you're not tinkering with the, the betting action as a sports better. So we're to make the short, we're going to make it sweet. And we're going to talk commanders heading into Wisconsin, into Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers.

Kyle Blondin (06:49.324)
The NFL is such a week to week, like how do you describe it? Decisions are made on a week. Reputations are made week after week. The narrative changes week after week, but God forbid seven days, a seven day window of a narrative that just will not go away. So right now the chiefs

are getting knocked down there that loss in Brazil you know from the Chargers the Chiefs pretty much are getting written off you hear the stories that they done I don't think so they've lost before to open a season and they've wound up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy the Lions are really in the shitter right they did not look good in Lambeau on the road against the Packers could not put up any offense

Jerichoff looked like he was under pressure constantly. Mika Parsons was all over, you know, he's all over the field for the limited time he was in the game, usually in pass rush. Usually third down scenarios he was in the game, but he was a difference maker. So the Packers stock is rocketing. Every power ranking you have heard has put the Green Bay Packers as number one. Will that last? I don't know. You know, jury to me, still out on Jordan Love.

He's got peaks and he also has times where he's very bland, really struggles and his short period of time as a packer starting quarterback. So let's see how goes this week when they take on the commanders in a short turnaround week. And then what other narratives? Cowboys, not really going anywhere. Giants, the G-men, all my Russell Wilson, there's already talk of Russell Wilson being benched.

right after week one, they couldn't really move the ball against Washington. Here's a news flash. What did you expect from Russell Wilson? He's not Seattle prime Russell Wilson any further. So I don't know what, I don't know what Brian, Brian Dayball was selling as head coach of the New York giants to convince the organization to give me another chance and let me have Russ Wilson. He will carry us out of the flames and the, and the ashes and bring us back to playoff contention.

Kyle Blondin (09:13.742)
Well, it didn't look like that in week one and Brian Dayball is on the hot seat for NFL coaches and the Miami Dolphins. Absolutely horrible. And I think the narrative is accurate there. I talked about this at the start of the year that this stock is going down. Mike McDaniels, Rex Ryan ripping Mike McDaniels that calling him a nerd and use like just players don't respect them. So that shine is.

off and everybody is piling on big time. Game of the year, mean the Bills, Ravens, I think the narratives are the same regardless of the outcome of that game. But what other narratives and whatever game? Caleb Williams, like we just talked about his game on Monday night. I mean people are writing him off already. I don't know if we're there yet. He had a solid first half. He looked pretty good. He's got a rocket of an arm.

but he's a little slow to make decisions and that half second delay really makes a difference on, you know, incompletions to potential touchdowns. So, you know, they got to run with them, see what they have, but he's going to get hard pressed and the pressure is on in Chicago and Ben Johnson, that guy looks frustrated. Like you could see on the sidelines talking under his breath. He's, I think he's going to learn that the camera is focused on him because he,

You can't look at it as an offensive coordinator. You got to look at it as a head coach where you're trying to cultivate a franchise quarterback. So those are some of the narratives that are going around the NFL in week one and who knows what it's going to do in week two. Either they're going to turn around completely or it's just going to be more proof to these narratives. But the narrative is going to this Thursday nighter is that the Packers are the better team, that the Packers are going to win this game.

Despite you know the commander is possibly making a game of it keeping it close the commanders are three and a half point dogs on fan duel minus 115 and Again, I can't stress enough. I'm gonna. I'm gonna talk about this on every podcast. Please keep your eye on multiple books You might get a half point here. You're over under which currently is 48 and a half might be 47 and a half or 48 and

Kyle Blondin (11:42.104)
at another book or maybe higher and you don't want to get stuck with those lines you want to take the best line possible I am not associated with betstamp at all it's an app and I only bring this up because I do use it to compare lines in my local area so I can kind of see all the different sports books a lot of big sports books a lot of medium-sized sports books and a lot of sports books I never heard of so you check them out keep keep an eye on those

those other you know like services. I used bet online this along with FanDuel this weekend. It's okay. I mean there was nothing gravitating me to bet online in any way to say got to leave FanDuel or make it a like a regular book that I'm going to use. There was an offer. I took it and I'm not racing back to dump more money in there but

That's not to say it was bad, to say it was good, it just didn't stand out. So we're gonna look at the lines based on FanDuel and then the props for this game are gonna be a mixture of FanDuel and DK, DraftKings. And I'm gonna take a different approach to this game.

I'm going to look at the Washington commanders as a team that is going to come in here and give the Packers a run, if not outright win this game. The commanders are on a roll since last year, despite getting blown out in the NFC championship. They got the job done last week. Jaden Daniels is the best player on the field. I don't care if we're talking Mika Parsons, if you've got the best quarterback on the field.

one of the best up and coming quarterbacks in the NFL that gives you a definite leg up and a lot of my bets can be based on Jaden Daniels having a spectacular night so we're gonna kick it off when it comes to the spread three and a half I mentioned that the commanders are underdogs I will take that at minus 115 take Washington to keep it close but I am I would suggest even look at the money line I'm not going to talk about it here but it's worth

Kyle Blondin (13:57.78)
a thought or two and some notes on this game. I maybe should start off with that. The Packers have two starting offensive linemen that are iffy, may or may not play. Zach Tom and Aaron Banks are potentially not playing so that offensive line might be a little depleted when it comes to the Packers. Not good news for a solid commander's defense. And then on Washington's side

Jaden Daniels did show up in the injury report and that kind of threw me back a little bit. What the hell, Jaden Daniels? Wrists, has wrist issues. But listen to Mike Florio's podcast, Pro Football Talk. He did remind that the NFL is obligated, each team is obligated that a player jumping into the trainer's room to have treatment has to be reported or risking fine.

to the NFL and doesn't necessarily mean that he has a devastating wrist injury. He's a full participant in practice on Tuesday. So I feel confident that there's nothing really to worry about there. so Echler, Echler also banged up. Don't know if he's going to play. Noah Brown also questionable. Both guys questionable. So just a couple injuries. I believe there's an issue with Washington's punter, Tress Way.

I don't know what impact that will have, but here we go. So Washington covers the three and a half as I mentioned. 48 and a half is a big number for the over under, but I think, man, I just feel like I'm an over guy, I'm overrated. Experience, it's because I tend to focus on the entertainment aspect and that is betting the over, which is absolutely stupid. What is the right play here? What is going to pay out?

Is it going to be over? Is it going to be under? What is the smart, rational play here? Well, I'm to look at it as this is going to be a little bit of a shootout. Jaden Daniels is not Jarek Goff. I enjoy Jarek Goff. Jarek Goff is a great quarterback. However, he has lack of mobility and I think Jaden Daniels mobility is going to play a difference here.

Kyle Blondin (16:13.935)
both evading tackles, both keeping plays alive where receivers are able to get open, and or using his legs to break off big runs. So I'm gonna take the over 48.5, mark it down guys, mark it down, put it on Twitter, call me out if you want to, that's your call. So we got commander's cover over in the game 48.5. When we look at the props here, I did mention,

The Jaden Daniels is going to be the focal point of these props that I'm going to provide here today. I believe he's going to have a standout game and be the best player on the field. So on fan duel, Jaden Daniels passing yards 226.5 minus 114. I got to believe he's going to be in the least to 230 aspect here. And I know that's a tough Green Bay D, but Jaden Daniels gets the job done. goes through the air. Jaden Daniels, here's a theme.

Guess what? Jaden Daniels pass and rush over 275 and a half. He had 60 yards rushing against the Giants last game. So I gotta believe it's gonna be a big part of his repertoire. Remember a quarterback like Jaden Daniels is not just running on broken down pass plays. He has designed runs. And when he's got, if he's got room, he's gonna put up a huge amount of yards that is going to pay us off by the end of the night.

Most pass yards, so comparing him and Jordan Love. I like Jayden Daniels to put the ball in the air a little bit more. think Josh Jacobs for the Packers is going to be the focal point of the Packer offense. So I think that the commanders will put the ball in the air. And I like that at minus one 13 that he'll have more passing yards than Love. So three straight prop plays of Jayden Daniels. Gotta say I love it. And I stick with the best players instead of 55 other players that I

think are going to squeak over their prop. Let's go with the superstar. And then we got Terry McLaurin, receiver for the Washington commanders last week, only a few targets really wasn't a focal point in the offense. And I gotta believe as the number one guy and the guy who got paid and returned to the commander's lineup is going to be a focal point for Jayden Daniels because he knows that connection has to be going for the commanders to go places.

Kyle Blondin (18:35.224)
So look for an actual effort for Jaden Daniels and the commander offense to find Terry McLaren. I like the over 55 and a half and I also like Terry McLaren over 21 and a half as longest reception. That's minus 122. So I like that combination happening on Thursday. And you know that little mansion, the Jacobi...

Crockett Merritt running back for the Washington commanders. I think he's got a he'll hit over 37 and a half yards rushing minus 114 Like I said Austin Neckler looks like he's a little banged up. So more and more the rock is gonna go with your Kobe

Kyle Blondin (19:21.712)
That's what I got there and then on DK. I'm look at some other props are a little unique now Mika Parsons has if he pretty good bet for a sack over 0.25 That means he at least has to have one sack or a half credit for a half a sack is minus 113 He's going to be dedicated at least for at least in a short turnaround where he was already doing this on last Sunday in obvious passing situations, so he is so focused

is to rush the quarterback. I feel good about that one. Also, any team to hit 30 points, minus 110, I do think this game's going over. I wouldn't be surprised that one of these teams hits 30. I mean, I'm banking on the commanders to put up points, but you tell me this won't be a 30-23 game or something like that on a Thursday night or short turnaround week. I think there's good value there.

2 point attempt Like it's plus 125 not a success a 2-point conversion success. This is a 2-point attempt 2-point conversion attempt how many games on Sunday? Went for 2 points the bills and like the bills Ravens like I Should look back at how many games but I feel very confident the teams are going for 2 when there's a penalty

Teams are going for two late in the second half. They're not waiting necessarily for to get within one score. Many teams have adopted the philosophy down two, so they're down 15 and they score that touchdown. They're going for the two points right away. So that's something to keep an eye on. think that is a missed, that is, sorry, a bet that is not being assessed fairly. So I think the value is there.

that you'll get that more than you won't. Especially with a guy like Jaden Daniels or you got your Jalen Hurts with the tush push, those quarterbacks that can use their legs. The Money Niner, J.J. McCarthy, multiple times for the two point conversion. One successful to Adam Thielen, one not so successful, I think, I can't remember who you started to earlier. So I like that plus 125 at two point conversion attempt. Have you heard of this bet?

Kyle Blondin (21:47.013)
probably have but it's a square box podcast maybe you haven't who knows it's called an octopus will there be an octopus and what that means and this is plus 1400 by the way will the touchdown score also be the score of a two-point conversion that is immediately follows that touchdown so the eight eight points will they score eight points

and be that it's not like you get a touchdown and later in the game that same let's say running back score or quarterback scores at two points of jail and hurts runs it in and he runs it in again for the two point conversion that's an octopus you get paid at a plus fourteen hundred interesting maybe it's worth putting ten dollars just for fun but can happen

And then for you same game parlay folks out there, and there's a lot of you who love the same game parlay, and guess what? The sportsbook love you too. They love me too, because I do it too. Have you noticed all the sportsbooks are incentivizing you to go down that path because the odds are extremely low that they're going to get hurt and you're going to lose your money. They feel very, very comfortable that yes, you may get that one payout.

but there's a whole bunch of other suckers that are dropping dimes and they're cashing in. So remember that is in favor of the sports book for you to continuously bet sport, same game parlays, regardless of the sport. doesn't matter in this game. So if we're doing a same game parlay, I three bets for you. And again, the theme is going to be Washington and points being scored. So I like the alternative over 39 and a half over

Jaden Daniels alternate passing yards 200 or more and Washington alternate spread moving their spread from plus three and a half to plus 10 and a half. $100 payout profit of $109. So I'll try to get you a Thursday night same game parlay every week and try to make it a plus to make it worth your while. So that being said, it's a short, it's a quick.

Kyle Blondin (24:08.208)
It's a Thursday night preview here on the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting podcast. Join us again on X overrated E-X-P-E-R-2 and on Instagram at overrated experience and watch out and subscribe so you can see our next podcast and next podcast after that. And after that, the other one, and especially you want to get ready for week two props and picks. It's going to be here. So stay tuned. The overrated experience is over and out.

Good luck everybody.