S4E3 - NFL Betting Kick Off- Cowboys/Eagles & Chiefs/Chargers picks

The NFL season kicks off Thursday and the Overrated Experience is allover the betting action.

Cowboys @ Eagles -8.5

• The line jumped from from 6.5 up to 8.5 right after the Cowboys traded Parsons... Can the Eagles cover ???
• Phi WR AJ Brown going to have a big day.. check out our Props picks.

Chiefs -3 @ Chargers 

• This game will be played Friday in Brazil... anything can happen.
• Total is 46.5 and we will still see an Over.
• Passing & Receiving props 

It's go time!! 

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:03.842)
Welcome to the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting Podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin. We're less than 24 hours to kick off of a new NFL season and what comes with NFL season is betting. So welcome to the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting Podcast because it's betting what you want. This is the place to be. This is the podcast for you, the average bettor like me, the average bettor that goes through all the lines, does the best they can to make some money.

get suckered in sometimes to the same game parlay's and some of the action going on because there's the Sunday nighters on or the Monday nighters on. I'm like you, you're following my experience. Welcome aboard if you haven't joined us before. So you can follow the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting Podcast on Twitter, aka Axe at Overrated E-Axe P-E-R-2. That's Overrated E-Axe P-E-R-2.

and also on Instagram at Overrated Experience. This is season four of the podcast, which usually kicks off for NFL season as the beginning of the season. And we got the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl champion, Philadelphia Eagles, kicking it off tomorrow night. And, you know, we're here to level set you what we think we're gonna go with. You can do what you want, but you're gonna hear what I have to say in relation to the Cowboys, Eagles. We're gonna have some

plays on the over-unders and spreads and some leans either way and then go into the Friday nighter live from Brazil, Kansas City taking on the San Diego, San Diego, holy crap, the Los Angeles Chargers all the way in Brazil. So a lot to go through here on the overrated experience. If you haven't hit us up in the last couple episodes, we talked about the college football season, the special on Netflix, the SEC.

SEC any given Saturdays to go through that that you can do that at any time that's it just goes through the show my thoughts on that the SEC college experience Football wise and then also our previous episode went through your survivor pools What picks we would make in the 18 weeks if you had to make them now in your survivor pools? Please take a listen to that if you don't know what a survivor pool is perfect time to listen to that podcast. All right so You square betters out there

Kyle Blondin (02:31.051)
You regular joes you regular people you regular betters just like me Just some topics we're hit up before we get into the actual lines for the first Thursday and Friday is Expect another podcast to drop to reflect on Picks against the spread for Sunday's games, and then we'll try to pop in a props proper proper props A podcast to go through all the different props to stand out and look good

Now honestly my first look at this is the props are the ones that move a lot. Those are the ones, those are the lines that are absolutely, you know, difference. Differences can be seen at various books. So right now I've used the Draft Kings and FanDuel. Big time differences and a yard counts. Yards do count. When you got rushing yards, total rushing yards, total passing yards, I bet you've lost because of a yard. A yard. So...

Don't discount the minimal, don't minimalize a yard or two. It's a big difference. And props, maybe our opportunity to get to the pay window. So here we go. Some of the news, quick updates before we get into the games. Red Zone announced today. If you're an NFL fan, you're watching Red Zone. All right, if you're an NFL better, you're watching Red Zone. So if you don't know what Red Zone is, it was an NFL property where you had to subscribe.

and it would basically Scott Hanson, the host would bounce to bounce to game after game when teams are in the red zone, recap scoring, you know, if a weird story popped up, maybe a major injury, it would just be like once a stop shop to the actual like action that was going on and no downtime. was a very fast paced. They've announced today that they're going to have full commercials like they've had commercials before.

but usually as you're watching they had it on the side. However, they're going to go on to full on commercials. I don't know what that's going to look like. A lot of noise online, how people feel about that. How do I feel about that? Glad you asked. Well, I think it was inevitable, right? I don't like it. Don't love it. I don't think it adds value to me, the end user who's going to watch every Sunday, but just like everything else, I mean,

Kyle Blondin (04:55.84)
Red Zone's been around for years now. It's now part of your must have viewing experience when watching on Sunday. And they got you. Hook line, bum, then you're done. What are you gonna do? Are you gonna get rid of Red Zone? I'd be very shocked if anybody does. Look at Netflix. Netflix, thing, right? You can really share.

like your passwords all etc etc for years and then Netflix becomes the norm and then they pick a time to crack down on IP addresses etc and what are you gonna do? You're lost. You're gonna get suckered into only having one access or two if you pay more in a tier package for Netflix they gotcha and Red Zone's got you too. Guess what guys? They're here to make money and I don't like it but I'm not shocked.

So we'll see what that experience looks like starting Sunday. Of course, most of us bought your NFL package or bought Red Zone.

Before this was known, I'm sure that was coincidental. Not. And the NFL is corporate, and if you haven't noticed that, it's not for the love of the game, it's for the love of franchise values and the next TV contracts. That is what this is about. And then, you know, this talk, I know if anybody wants this to happen, but is Taylor Swift gonna play the halftime show? What are your feelings on that? I was listening to local radio today in Toronto.

And the thought was maybe this might be the one act that may look bigger. know, is Taylor Swift the biggest act of the Super Bowl in history? I gotta believe so, And would she do it? Would you care? I don't really care. But, to each his own. So those are my thoughts and that's just the way it's gonna be.

Kyle Blondin (07:01.422)
So we're get to the real life action here. Dallas Cowboys. Mika Parsons, no, not Mika Parsons. They decided they wanted to screw around with a potential Hall of Fame defensive player in his prime that is paid to put pressure on a quarterback, which seems to be the second most desired skill position.

behind quarterback and the Dallas Cowboys decided, no that's not for me. I'm not interested. You know, he's in his prime. Let me send him into another NFC team in the Green Bay Packers for two first round draft picks, which may be late picks and then also an aging defensive tackle.

Look, as you become, as we get older, and we have that team when we grew up that were generational teams. So I was never in the LA, Oakland slash Vegas, Al Davis era, when they were winning Super Bowls. I came in as, you know, that was on the decline. You know, the Raiders became a joke, right?

You know, it looks like they're probably back on track a little bit. We'll see what happens. But I mean, for a long time, the Raiders were a joke. And that's what my perception was with Al Davis. I didn't see him in those years where he was a genius and, you know, winning Super Bowls. Where I was when I grew up, Jerry Jones was that guy. Jerry Jones was my Al Davis. I hated the Cowboys. I was a 49ers fan at that time. But Jerry Jones won three Super Bowls.

Right? He buys the Dallas Cowboys, hires Jimmy Johnson, makes the Herschel Walker trade. And if you don't know this, go back, use ChatGBT, look it up. Herschel Walker was one of the best running backs in football. Trades Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for a ton of draft picks. They build the team with Troy Aikman, a quarterback.

Kyle Blondin (09:21.952)
Emmett Smith and running back, Michael Irvin at wide receiver, like I said, Jimmy Johnson coaching and a whole host of other players joining on both sides of the ball, always known for having a ridiculous O line. They went back to back Super Bowls. They get rid of Jimmy Johnson, bring in Barry Switzer and that's where the decline starts a little bit, but they go ahead and win a Super Bowl and that's the last time America's team, the Dallas Cowboys have sniffed the Super Bowl. All right.

So I've seen Jerry Jones, you know, genius, or maybe he just had the right people around him that were the geniuses. And then now the decline. So, you know, he's unable to assign Mika Parsons and then the Packers immediately have, you know, name on a contract.

and have them sign up long term. So what does it mean for the Cowboys? Will the Cowboys walk into this game against the Super Bowl champions, division rival, and what do they have? What are they gonna put up against the Eagles here? And I'm gonna tell you right off the bat, I think you have two situations here where I think the Cowboys are a bit deflated. You know what I mean? You you had your best pass rusher, your best player on your team.

You know, a week ago, now he's not on the team. He screwed around with his contract situation where it became a distraction. And then you got an Eagles team, Super Bowl champions, division rival, that I don't think is going to the foot off the gas here. And I think they're going to kick the shit out of the Dallas Cowboys. It's not going to be, it's not going to look good. The Eagles are not going to put their step, uh, take their foot off the throat of Jerry's boys. Okay. And my bets are going to reflect that.

The line and got you guys you got to look at the line You have to have multiple books just just a heads up to compare lines compared to prop lines and take the best value because they are different in this case Most books that I'll compare fan dual draft kings and bet and MGM These lines opened up at six and a half And then the Mika Parsons, you know trade it goes down. We see a point go up to seven and half and now we're currently sitting at

Kyle Blondin (11:44.548)
you know, eight and a half on all three books. So if you look at all three books, eight and a half is the pretty common pick here. And you have to decide, you know, people are betting this number up. Should I still take it? What are the Eagles going to win by? Assuming you are on the same page as me, which you should be. This is why you're listening for the advice on the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports betting podcast. Will the Eagles blow out the Cowboys?

Well, look at this. The Cowboys have no run game, right? They have no run game. They got top notch, know, stud receivers, C.D. Lamb and George Pickens. But what do the Eagles have? They have an excellent pass rush. You watch it in the Super Bowl. The Holmes could not find the time at any point in that ball game to be effective.

You think that the Eagles are gonna let Dak Prescott off the hook here? He's gonna be under pressure the entire game. And the Eagles, with Saecon Barkley, their O-line, their talent everywhere, is gonna squeeze the Cowboys. Possession. Venge Dallas is gonna have to chase. And this is kind of where I'm going with this. So, kick it off. Will the Eagles cover 8 1⁄2?

I say yes. So I'm going to take the Eagles minus eight and a half and not feel any way about it. Okay.

Kyle Blondin (13:23.951)
Well, Over Under has now gone up from 46.5 to 47.5.

I'm gonna stay away from it. would lean, I always lean over, but in this case I'm gonna lean under, but I'm gonna stay away from it. I don't know if the Eagles will dominate the scoreboard versus dominate, like when I say dominate, I mean crush.

I think they wouldn't handle it either way. But will they just, you know, instead of going for the knockout punch, really put the Cowboys in a guillotine choke and just drain out the game with no hope for the Cowboys, Jerry and his boys? So I'm going to just lean under but not take it.

Then we get into the props side of things. This is what's interesting and I suggest, can't stress this enough, you need multiple books going into the NFL season. Check out incentives to jump on board, deposit incentives, get in there. And I'll tell you why. When I look at the props I like and compare FanDuel to DK, some of going DK, some of going FanDuel. Some of them obviously going one way or another. So Eagles total.

FanDuel 26.5 Sorry 28.5 it was up was down to 26.5 and now 20.5 same with DK Minus 118 but minus 105 when it comes to DK so why would I take the lower higher juice on FanDuel I would take the 28.5 over on DraftKings and not FanDuel

Kyle Blondin (15:09.219)
So count that, Eagles total over 28.5. I'm gonna pick Dak Prescott. rushing yards over seven and a half. Seven and a half right now for Dak Prescott minus 108 on FanDuel minus 105 on DraftKings. Again, gonna have to go with DraftKings because they have the better odds. don't get, why would you not take an extra dollar here or there based on the better juice?

Okay, so Dak Prescott over seven and half yards. There has to be a scenario in my opinion where he's going to be running around all night, all night. And at some point, multiple times, he's going to be left at three and a third and 15, third and 10. And the Eagles are going to let him pick up seven yards, eight yards, nine yards here and punt the ball away. That's how.

I envision that prop being met. Not in a spectacular hero way, not in a spectacular brave, oh my god, Dak Prescott is running for first down after first down, la Lamar Jackson, that ain't happening. Dak Prescott is banged up. He is banged up, okay? So this is just a mercy bet. Over seven and a half, Dak Prescott rushing yards.

Saquon Barkley, what a pick up last year for the Eagles, discarded by the New York Giants, poorly, piss poorly. His Russian total right now is 93.5 on FanDuel, 92.5 on DraftKings. I like the over. Which one would you pick? The 93.5 for the 92.5, of course, DraftKings.

Right now is the way to go. AJ Brown, any time touchdown. Plus 150 on FanDuel, plus 160 on DraftKings. multiple, same bet. Better odds in one place than another. Now why AJ Brown? Well, I think we've seen, if you've watched the Eagles and followed the Eagles over the last couple years, in good times and bad, in good times and bad, AJ Brown wants the ball.

Kyle Blondin (17:37.176)
and they have to serve up the monster. They have to feed him, regardless of the scenario. So look for the Eagles to make him the first option, unless they're on the one yard line and we got a tush push here, to try to find AJ Brown in the end zone, multiple times as this game goes on. They want to keep him happy. They do not want drama.

And AJ Brown will create drama if he's not fed the ball. This doesn't matter if they're up 30 or down 30, he wants the ball, they gotta keep him happy. Staying on the theme of AJ Brown, his over-under for receiving yards, 69 and a half on FanDuel, 71 and a half on DraftKings, obviously, FanDuel, way to go. Okay? So I'm gonna take you over on that. He's gonna have a couple big plays. He's gonna be six, seven receptions, big chunk yardage.

running after the catch. So take AJ Brown have a big game, 69 and a half. know there is reports of him having issues with his hamstring, but he looks like he's going to go. I don't think he's going to be less than a hundred percent.

Two point conversion. Actually, let me circumcise that. So, and I'll tell you what, from now on, if you hear me call it the fan duel, or the DraftKings line, you know the other line is not as good, okay? But if there's a wide gap, I'm gonna point that out. Look how I changed on the fly, you're welcome. Saquon Barkley longest rush, right now, on DraftKings, over 19 and a half. How many times have we seen Saquon break out

50 60 yard rush Many times I mean that was a trick question, but I'm sure you knew the answer Many times 19 and a half say quam you have Jalen hurts on the You know the RPO It's gonna happen guys, it's gonna happen so 19 to half I love that bet So look in the last bet in this game that I like and I think is worth

Kyle Blondin (19:50.024)
Exploring a plus 130 on DraftKings Will there be a two-point conversion attempt? Let's look at the that's the good facts here The Cowboys are most likely to be chasing down multiple scores Has to you know, know configure the scoring, you know, they get they're lucky to get a touchdown Most likely they're gonna go for two based on the scenario. They are having probably in the second half or Let's say

Eagles score multiple touchdowns. There's an offside on Dallas and the ball moves up to the one yard line. What are the Eagles doing? I'll stop and pause. You can answer. Yes, that is correct. They're going to be on the one yard line. They're going to go to the tush push. They're going to look at that too as a locked in two. So plus 130, there is value there.

So think about it. Think about it, sleep on it, but don't sleep on it too long before the betting line closes tomorrow night. And that is another interesting note in this game is the Eagles picked up Sam Howell in a trade because Tannermagie, the back of quarterback, looks like he has a broken ring finger. So what does that mean if this game gets out of hand? How quickly?

Will the Eagles pull Jalen Hurts? Will they? Because how well does Sam Howell know the playbook? I don't know. But that's an interesting note just to keep in mind as you look at your second half lines in your live betting. Now we move to Friday. Looks like it's going to be tradition in the NFL to kick off a game from Brazil. Okay? Brazil.

What's that out last year with the Eagles Packers game in Brazil? Well, what I can tell you is Jordan Love got hurt. I can also tell you the field was slippery as shit. I haven't heard any reports that they have made any changes to that. And I think what this does, puts an abnormality into this game that I think it's a little more chaotic and less predictable.

Kyle Blondin (22:09.328)
which doesn't suit well for a podcast is trying to predict, but we'll do our best anyway. So Kansas City is, think the road team on here, LA, the Chargers are the home team and the Chargers across all three books, FanDuel, DKN, MGM, minus three are the Chargers, sorry, the Chiefs of the Favorite minus three. And the Over-Under is hitting a 46 and a half across all three books.

Where are we gonna get this game? I think we're gonna get a shootout. I think it's gonna be sloppy. I think there's gonna be issues with the turf. I think there's gonna be missed tackles. I think these teams, we're talking about teams flying a lengthy period of time to get where they need to go to São Paulo, Brazil. I haven't really heard reports, but they're probably not leaving their hotel rooms. They're cooped up in the hotel. It's just not a normal week of preparation. So don't expect.

especially defensively in my opinion, this will look like if this was taking place either at SoFi Stadium or Arrowhead. So in this case, Kansas, I'm gonna lean, man, I'm gonna lean Kansas City, but I'm gonna stay away from that, not betting that. What I would bet is that over 46 and a half, it jumped from 45 and a half. So I like the over. Surprise, because the podcast is called

the overrated experience. Now we get to the props action here. We're going to look at both teams here. So Justin Herbert, quarterback for the LA Chargers.

Now Jim Harbaugh is, Coach Harbaugh is a run first, heavy run first coach. So I think the Chargers will attempt to get on the ground and dominate the ground. But when you got a quarterback like Justin Herbert, you gotta let him fly, man. You gotta put him out of the nest and let him go.

Kyle Blondin (24:19.268)
And eventually at some point in this game, it's going to become a little bit of a shootout. That run game is not going to be where it wants to be. And I think the over under on the passing yards for Justin Herbert over 231 and a half minus 114 is the play here on fan duel. Note running game for the Chargers, Najee Harris, free agent signing, fireworks victim. Yeah, that's right. He got hurt on July the 4th with fireworks.

I don't understand the number of people that are fascinated with fireworks, like fascinated. Like I have to watch something blow up. I get it, it's entertaining. But I'm in the midst of an NFL career and I'm gonna be the guy, one lighting up the firework? Like getting that close? Like what are you doing? Like what are you thinking? So, Najia Harris looks like he's gonna play.

He's on the active roster at least. Let's put him down as possible. One of the big losses for the Chargers in the off season was Rashawn Slater, offensive tackle out for the year. So that can cause some protection problems for the Chargers. And what I think will happen along with the successful over on the passing yards for Justin Herbert, I think he's susceptible to a little pick. A little pick here, a little INT.

Easy to spell, plus 116 on FanDuel. So I like that one as well, I'll take it. Mahomes Herbert combined 500 yards. They're gonna put on a show on Friday. I like one of them to go off at least 300 yards. And the other one to be like the early 220s, 230s. I think that 500 dollars, 500 yards is very, very doable. They're gonna put on a show plus 125 in FanDuel. Gonna go on with FanDuel again.

Now we get into the receivers. Excuse me. We have Lad McConkey of the Chargers. You know, he's the guy over the middle. He's the little guy. He's going to take a lot of volume, can break open some big plays and 71 and a half yards. I think he's got it. I think he's going to get that. No problem. He's going to have a big game. And then Xavier worthy of the chiefs longest reception over 21 and a half, Andy Reed and Patty Mahomes.

Kyle Blondin (26:45.238)
look at Xavier Worthy as four, five to six big explosive plays that they have in their back pocket every time he steps on the field. So if he hits one of those, this could be big, big time yardage. Okay. He's got blazing speed. They're going to put him in a position to be successful. That's receiving yard. So I like that one. That's over 21 and a half minus

114, yep, minus 114 Fandle. Back to Lab MacConkey, total receiving receptions over five and a half, minus 122. He's gonna get actually minus 120 on DK, so that might be better. He's gonna get peppered, okay? Herbert's gonna pepper him. He's gonna pick up a lot of yards, and he's also gonna pick up a lot of volume and receptions. So look for Lab MacConkey to have a huge day here today.

I threw a late one in here, late, all right, based on the marriage proposal, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelsey. My thought, thinking, is that Travis Kelsey had a bit of an off year this year. Now he's getting prepared to get married, we don't know the date, a lot of excitement going on in the world, big news, all right, non-football fans, football fans, Swifties, everybody's in awe of this announcement. Yeah, wow, wow, amazing.

But I think Travis Kelce rebounds has more of an impactful season, right? And I think it begins in Brazil. So his receiving yards are over 46 and a half, minus 114. I'll take the over. I'm going to take the over on this one. think that he's going to have a couple of big plays. He's going to have five or six receptions. And I think we see the old Travis Kelce make a big run to redeem.

His place is the top tight end in football.

Kyle Blondin (28:46.372)
And that's it guys, there's nothing more can tell you. You bled me dry of information for these two games. We will be back to talk about the rest of the Sunday card and the Monday nighter. We'll be back to talk about the props and I encourage you to take a look at multiple bets and props you like because you're gonna find better deals other places than others. So keep those options open to yourself.

Follow the Overrated Experience on X at Overrated, E-X-P-E-R-2, and Overrated Experience on Instagram, both of which are explained in your podcast provider's summary of this podcast. So click on that. And what else I tell ya? That's it, pleasure's all been yours. We'll talk to you again. Have a good Thursday, Friday kickoff to the NFL season. Bye bye.