NHL Conference Championship Betting Preview

The Overrated Experience gets you wagering ready for the start of the NHL Conference Finals.

Episode Details:

• We look back at the 4 teams that were eliminated and rank what teams should be in Panic mode.
• Props - Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricane Series
• Props - Edmonton Oiler vs Dallas Starts Series

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Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01.974)
Welcome to the overrated experience sports and sports spending podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blonde. And this is the NHL conference finals betting preview. are now through two rounds of NHL action and NHL Stanley cup action. And we're here with the final four and we're going to get into it. We're going to talk about the teams that are gone, the four that left the four that remain on this series that we're about to see and what some opportunities.

from the betting perspective there's going to be here. Welcome back to the overrated experience is brought to you by our extra Twitter. I w which one to use that. don't know. But so X get on there overrated E X P E R two that's overrated E X P E R two star following the podcast online. Like to hear from you. so any Lee fans out there and you leave fans feeling the pain this morning would get into that.

So last night for the city of Toronto, another disappointment, another failure, another shot at the core four or maybe core five, depending if you want to put Morgan Riley into that scenario and that group, at least don't do it again. They fail. I'm going to touch upon that a little more after I walked through the previous other series that finished off as well. We're left with Florida, Carolina on the Eastern conference side, Edmonton, Dallas.

And what playoff it's been so far a lot of good action looking at our remaining odds to win the Stanley Cup. Looking at fan dual bet three, six, five or draft Kings. Edmonton on fan dual is up there with Florida plus two 40 while Dallas is plus two 80 plus 300 for Carolina. Carolina is taking a back seat. Wow. Florida has a really pushed the odds for Carolina really at the start of the playoffs was up. There's one of the favorites and the favorite on some sports books.

Beth 365 looks to have the Edmonton Oilers as their favorite at plus 230 with the Florida Panthers at plus 240 plus 275 for the Dallas Stars and Carolina again at the back of the line at plus 230 at 330 and DraftKings actually has the Florida Panthers at plus 230 so that's the favorite on DK and 265 plus 265 for the Edmonton Oilers plus 290 for the Dallas Stars and Carolina plus 320 so

Kyle Blondin (02:24.024)
for you betters out there you obviously want to keep a range of sports books because if you said Carolina is the pick you want to make you want to make sure you do that on bet three six five if you have those three options gives you the best bet at three thirty triple your money plus a little bit if you want it the Edmonton Oilers you're to jump on Draft Kings because they got a plea plus 265 to win the Stanley Cup compared to the other two books you want to Florida Florida you want to stay on either bet three six five or fin do a plus 240 you're not going to get as good

of odds and decay draft kings after the Dallas stars your best odds are with draft kings of plus two nights are really shop around depending on your pick you want to make sure you got the right sports book to maximize your profit every penny counts don't forget that now looking at how things have developed up to this point and looking at the scoreboard who's the playoff leaders who's up there for con Smythe will look at that so right now Miko Rantanen leads the NHL 19 points wow for Carolina

You'd really like a Mico Rantanen right now to go against the Florida Panthers. If you were the Colorado Avalanche, you really want a Mico Rantanen losing to Mico Rantanen and the Dallas Stars in round one. And if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs, you really want a Mitch Marner to say, yes, I will accept a trade to the Carolina Hurricanes so that you can take on Mico Rantanen. So a lot of teams are with some sort of regrets, not being able to put Mico Rantanen out there.

Dallas stars aren't they paid the price. They got the guy they wanted and he's got 19 points so far two rounds in Connor McDavid no surprise tied with Kyle Connor who's out of the Winnipeg Jets for 17 points behind Miko Rantanen Leon Dreistadel 16 points is in the fourth slot 15 for William Nylander gone Mitch Marner gone Evan Bouchard around and with 12 points so

Got a lot of stuff going on here. Uh, you know, we're only halfway through halfway through, uh, Michael Rantin and also leads and goals. He's got eight, sorry, nine and, uh, Andre, uh, uh, Tim Chalkoff for the Carolina hurricane sneakily. don't know that's a word sneakily, but he has eight goals. So watch out for him. Sam Bennett has, uh, sorry, Nathan McKinnon has seven. He's done. Uh, I got to go back. Is that right? He got seven goals against the Dallas stars nuts, huh? Sam Bennett was six.

Kyle Blondin (04:50.574)
I the first two rounds and dry saddle five shy flee. Shafely what a big goal against the Dallas stars father passes out hours earlier in that game six and he comes out the first goal in the game despite the loss. What heart what an effort by Mark Shafely and what a story there sad but what a way to come through during that game and then cons might have got to cons might look at here so we have

Out of the three sports books you have Conor McDavid plus 380 on FanDuel plus 360 on 365 and plus 350 on DK. So he's the man that leads the charge right now followed by Mikko Rantinen, Freddie Anderson. Freddie Anderson, I cannot see this happening. Goal tender for the Carolina Hurricanes. Freddie Anderson plus 550 on FanDuel plus 580 I think on, or yeah, 560 on 365 or wrote that down correctly.

Plus 450, they really got a lot of faith in Freddie Anderson. Watch out for Freddie Anderson, he tends to get injured. And yeah, I wouldn't put a lot of dollars or Freddie Anderson to carry the Carolina Hurricanes to the Stanley Cup. Not one bet, but Sergei Bobrovsky plus 750 on fan duel, plus 800 on bet 365, and plus 900 on DK to win the Con Smythe. Sergei Bobrovsky.

is a game changer. You could even see in that game seven against the Leafs, the few chances that the Leafs did have were point blank chances that he coolly and collectively shut down, eliminated, and really sent the Leafs packing. So Sergei Barovsky is not getting the respect I think he should. Dreisaitl is in there. know, Jake Ottinger might be a value pick if you think the Dallas Stars are going to make a run. He's standing out.

I mean, there's no question. Against the Winnipeg Jets, Jake Autinger was that difference maker that the Stars needed to get to that conference final. And he's sitting at a plus 1100 on FanDuel, plus 1400 and 1400 also on both Bet365 and DK. So if you like Jake Autinger or the Dallas Stars, goalkeeper, goaltender, you want to stick with Bet365 or DraftKings to take that futures bet. So that's kind of how things are looking.

Kyle Blondin (07:15.15)
when it comes to the NHL. What's interesting when you look at the goals against average in the playoffs, Freddie Anderson leads 1.36, which is possibly one of the reasons why he's one of the cons my favorites with that statistic, the goals against average, which might play into a decision, but he's only halfway there. And the Carolina Hurricanes are a boring team. I'm sorry to say, man, but they are boring as hell.

Anthony Stollers was second. was out first game against the Panthers, the Leaf goaltender, Bobrovsky 2.31 goals against average Logan Thompson for the caps out 2.41 goals against average and Jake Ottinger 2.47 goals against average. Pretty good. What team did you not hear in that readout? That's right. It was the Edmonton Oilers, the Edmonton Oilers with both, Calvin Pickett and

in Skinner, Stuart Skinner are the two, the team that kind of went back and forth, really unstable, solid enough, goaltending, to get by the Vegas gold Knights. But really, yeah, I, I just, it's a, it's an eye, it's an eye opener. What's it mean going into the conference final? Well, the way the Winnipeg or the way the Emmett Hoyler's played, I don't know if it will, but against the Dallas stars, I think it's.

You know, has to be right. They have to light them up and maybe this is the time where the weather's got to play run and gun hockey because they don't got the goalkeeping that they, you know, the other teams do. So we'll see what happens there. So we're going to just do a quick review of the teams that are not, not in the final four, kicking it off with let's say from least panic to most panic. When I say panic, mean really, my God, we've got a problem here with our core group.

So if you look at who got eliminated, excuse me, from least?

Kyle Blondin (09:19.694)
I the Winnipeg Jets are the least. I mean, you know, the Dallas Stars are a Stanley Cup contender. There's no question about it. You know, they limped in.

Tellers was kind of banged up. Shifely was banged up. Couldn't play in one of those games on the road. The Jets lost. Father passed away in game seven. I was he A, healthy? And B, I know he scored the goal, but was he still at a top level? I don't know. I just don't know. Hellebock, question mark again. The Jets did send him to a long-term contract, so he's not going anywhere, but he didn't.

Yeah, he didn't really blow anybody away with his goalkeeping. Really struggled early in that first series against the St. Louis Blues, but it was okay. Made some big saves, but was nothing special. And they do need for the Jets to make a run. They do need their star goaltender to be special. And he wasn't special, but he wasn't dead, you know, god awful. So I wouldn't be panicking there. The Jets seem to have a solid run organization. Kevin Sheveldayoff.

knows how to find value. He'll do it again and I think they'll be fine and they have a chance of making a run again next year. Vegas Gold Knights, I don't know what they're a team that's expecting since day one when they stepped on the ice in the NHL not too long ago and made the final in their first year of existence. Their expectations are to continuously make cup runs.

They kind of like whimpered out against the Edmonton Oilers, I was very shocked about. They didn't really test, my opinion, the Edmonton Oilers goalkeeping situation. The Oilers out-depped them. mean, they got Leonid Dreisaitl and McDavid, which I thought if they were going to win the series, they had to carry them on their back. But they got goals from a lot of places. The Edmonton Oilers did. They were just better than Vegas and most

Kyle Blondin (11:29.652)
aspects of the game. does Vegas do? I gotta bet they're gonna do something. I think they'll make at least one big significant offseason move. What that is I don't know. But they're you know they're probably gonna max out the increase in the cap some way somehow to make a move to be in a position where they're in the conference final or final next year. That is their expectation. So I don't think they're panicking but I don't think they'll sit on their hands either. The Washington Capitals

again, I don't know if they're major panicking. I mean, they got good seasons out of Dylan Strom, great goaltending Logan Thompson. you know, Ovi got his, you know, record breaking goal to, to go ahead with Gretzky there. what does he have left in the tank? I don't know, man. Like, I mean, he scored 40 plus goals, so it's hard to kind of push them to the side, you know, and, know, you know, get rid of old Yeller there, but he's still got something, but.

I don't know man, now that the record's been achieved, does he walk away? I don't think so, but I mean, he's got a cup. I don't know if this team's ready to compete for the cup next year. And how long does Ovi have left? I Carolina walked all over them pretty much and shut them down. They just don't got the depth of what it takes to beat a team like Carolina. So I wouldn't be surprised if Ovi maybe walks away.

But you know, he's a goal scorer, 100 % pure goal scorer, one of the best that we've seen at goal scoring. But you know, he's 40, was he 40 plus or whatever it is? you can tell he's slow on the ice. So I don't know, Washington, you got a decision to make. And maybe Ovi, maybe it's time, you got the record, and maybe it's time to kind of move on, move on, Ovi.

So now we get to the elephant of the room here. And there's a blue white elephant called the Toronto Maple Leafs. And for nine seasons, we in this city have held out hope that the Leafs nine years ago or 10 years ago, you you might've heard the phrase scorched earth, broke this team down, started from the bottom, depend on low draft picks.

Kyle Blondin (13:54.85)
You know, we got lucky first overall pick to pick up Austin Matthews and top of a fourth overall pick and Mitch Marner on top of already having William Melander. and then, you know, the core was born, right? The core was born. John Tavares gets added on a few years later, the Toronto born kid back in his hometown thought to be the icing on the cake, but really.

Two playoff series wins in nine years. Two series playoff wins in nine years. Man, there is such a gap here between the teams that got eliminated in this second round to major overhauls required. And the Leafs are that team, right? Depends on what they I guess it depends on what they want. If they want a solid division contending regular season, yeah, keep the same team together. Go out and blow your brains out and...

signed Mitch Marner to $14 million a year. He's not taking a hometown discount, but you're nuts if you do. know, Mitch Marner, if you noticed last night, you know, he touched the puck. Every time he touched the puck in that third period, he was being booed. Mitch Marner is like milk right now. He is expired, right? There's chunks. It's past the due, the good date of, you know, to drink that milk. His time,

is over. His time is over. And I get the concept here and the idea that you don't know what's on the other side if you start taking these pieces away. And we don't. But we know what is here. And that is a limitation of results. It's a limitation of where the Leafs are going to go and how they're going to go from here. If they keep the same team together,

We're just going to get the same results. So look, they had their opportunity. They had a big game six win against the Florida Panthers. They obviously, had an opportunity to come home, had all my ice advantage and absolutely got dominated by a better team outclassed by a better team, better players, better pickups at the trade deadline, better management, better everything, better goaltending, but

Kyle Blondin (16:19.03)
If your stars don't produce results, the results are going to be not what you want. And that is another elimination. Jersey's being thrown on the ice. So Leaf Nation has spoken. If you are the Toronto Maple Leafs, you will let Mitch Marner walk as a free agent. You know what? 31 other teams I heard on Axe today, we're going to line up and pick him up or really have a bidding war.

So be it. It's not working here. It's a 32nd team that we've been down this road and it ain't working. And when the fans start booing out of hatred, it's time to cut ties. Say thanks for your service and move on. It ain't working. Auston Matthews isn't going anywhere unless he's demanding a trade out of Toronto. So the reality is he's there. I mean, the question is though is what is Auston Matthews?

is his ceiling.

I mean, he's a great regular season goal scorer, but he can hardly be found in the playoffs, right? He's not even close to dominating, let's say, you know, the LA Kings on a three game West Eastern road trip, you know, or into San Jose or Chicago. But when it comes up against the Boston Bruins or the Florida Panthers or somebody that, you know, high level, is a fraud. He is just gone. He disappears.

little fraudulent little fraudulent so Austin Matthews he'll be here but man he's gonna lose face he's the next guy on the list he's the next guy on the list of the fans will get all over when things go sour again next year I hope I'm wrong I hope I'm so at least need some significant moves what those are we're gonna we're gonna find out I mean Aaron Echblad my understanding is a free agent Florida Panthers defenseman

Kyle Blondin (18:22.286)
and maybe he's the guy that we need to add that winning culture, impactful defenseman. You've seen him kind of terrorize the Leafs in this round, this series as well, if he's available. He's a guy I'd be looking to go after. And I wouldn't be too upset if the Leafs decided to part ways and move Morgan Riley as well. I just don't think he is an elite level defenseman. And you kind of need a number one pairing defenseman, the horse. And look at that Florida Panthers lineup.

You got Seth Jones and Eric Neck-Platte in there on that blue line. Just spectacular. So outclassed and it's over. Core four, done, over. And it was over. And I've been saying it for long time. It's been way too long. Too much faith to run it back year over year. And that's on Brendan Shanahan, president of hockey operations. Time for him to go? It's go time, Brendan. Sorry, you gotta hand in that resignation tomorrow, but we'll see.

So that's state of the world, state of the least, state of the blue and white as seen from a Torontonian. Not happy about it, but that's reality. And to be honest, did I have real faith that we were gonna win that game seven? Did I want them to? Yes. Did I have faith? Nah. Nah. It wasn't really, you know, it's kind of, I have to see it to believe it. And I've seen what I've always seen for nine years. And that's not anything good. So speaking of winners.

Cause I'm not talking about winners. want to talk about the Leafs right now. I'm talking about winners moving on one step away from getting to the Stanley Cup final. The Eastern Conference series is the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes. Are these the best two teams in the Eastern Conference? I mean, obviously they're here at the end. they the best two teams? Yeah, I'm going to say they are. Uh, it's Carolina, you know, kind of that team. It's always been on the bubble of underachieving.

And from underachieving to getting to where they expect to be, yeah. Now what's gonna happen in this series? I can't see Florida from what I've seen and how they've conducted themselves over last three seasons, this being the third, that they're gonna allow a Carolina hurricane team that is a solid club, has depth all around, but they don't have a killer.

Kyle Blondin (20:45.592)
They don't have a killer. The Carolina Hurricanes went out earlier this year, made a big trade with the Colorado Avalanche to pick up Mikko Rantinen. And Mikko Rantinen is exactly the type of player that they need in this particular series, a killer. know, the Dallas Stars know what they got, but they picked up Mikko Rantinen without having a contract in place, which makes zero sense.

and then having to dump them at the trade deadline because they felt they could not resign. Weird decision too, as well, is that you got the player that you feel that you want is going to be the guy pushing over the edge, and you got a team right now, it's not going to be great forever, and you decide it because you didn't take your chances on this team this year to get the job done. So I think that's going to be the missing factor here in this series.

I think Florida gets the job done. think it goes six. And if you look at the betting lines, the Florida Panthers are the favorite. FanDuel has them at one minus 125. 365 has them on minus 130. And again, DK minus 125 while the Carolina Hurricanes are pluses, plus 110 on Beth 365. So if you'd like the Canes in the series, that is the betting site to pick it on if you're using these three sites.

And if I go through each of the three sites that I'm just using as my examples, I'll give you my best bets. And here they go. Fandol, the series, minus 125, Florida takes it. Not big money, but solid. You know, if you feel comfortable, I feel very comfortable that the Florida Panthers will do this. And also the Florida Panthers win this in, you know, max six games, which will give you the

Winning by minus one and a half of plus 162 so four games to two or four games to one and they Florida takes it I think value bet is it that the series goes six games exactly a plus 195 Now here's a running theme you'll find as I go through each of the betting sites and that is the total goals in this series by an individual player or two And here we have Brad Marchand three goals in this series is plus 450

Kyle Blondin (23:10.062)
Plus 450. Okay? And why not guys? What am I missing here? He scored three goals against the Leafs. He's been very impactful. He'll score empty net goals. He'll be out there in a tight game near the end. He makes things happen. So there's real value putting some hope that plus three goals plus 450 on FanDuel for Brad Marshawn.

Carolina Shevchenkov, three goals, plus 220. Well, he's got eight goals in the playoffs. I mean, if there's a guy for Carolina that's going to score, it's going to be him. And have three goals in the series, very possible. And I think it's very good value there. So that wraps up FanDuel with one exception, one thing to consider. Now, you could also bet on the Stanley Cup matchup, so the various different matchups.

Fan duel now. I didn't write this down because I was I don't know why I write this down, but Just throw it out here. I give you a good pick and I think it's valuable Do you feel confident? That Florida's gonna win this series like I do if you do the one I'm say to you is If you pick the matchup of Florida Edmonton or Florida Dallas either each of those matchups is plus 200

I'm find the right balance here, here. is it? Of course when I want to find it, I'm gonna find it. Son of a beep. So I would be very, let's go, on, let's play off specials. Hypothetical Stanley Cup Finals. So, all right, so Stanley Cup Final here, Edmonton, Florida.

Kyle Blondin (25:05.206)
It's not doing what I thought it was. Never mind. I thought it was the matchup But it's not giving me that All right, you know Anyway, I thought it was gonna be a Edmonton matchup. There is that bet. I just can't find it. So the Edmonton Florida matchup is plus 200 and change and The Dallas in Florida matchup is 200 and change just for the matchup alone so I think that we will see is

uh sorry I'm rambling on because I'm trying to find this bet but I would take two bets of $100 each on those plus 200 scenarios because I'm that confident that Florida's gonna win this series and then it won't matter if it's Edmonton or Dallas in the final so uh I like it and that's that's how I see a plan out Florida will be there now

Draft Kings, sorry going down to bet 365 in this series the Carolina Florida Panthers series so back to Brad Marshawn He is a plus 120 to score two goals in the series. I like him at three Give me two goals a plus 120 good value there and Back to DK if you don't have bet 365, but you do have draft Kings Brad Marshawn to get two goals or more is plus two 120 good value there same as bet 365 Series total plus 200 which is actually better

than FanDuel so I'm talking about the series going six games exactly. OT Prop, I'm contemplating this. Will any of these games in this series go to double overtime? At plus 400. If there's a series out of these two that's gonna go double overtime, if not triple, it's gonna be this one. So that's maybe a good value, plus 400 there. Series total over 31 and a half goals. Wow, minus 120.

You like that kind of series watching goals? I fear that there's going to be a 1-0, 2-0 game here. Or will they average? If they go six games and they have five goals a game, but maybe one of those games they have a 5-4 barn burner, that will get us over the 31 and 1 half. So something to consider, minus 120, 31 and 1 half goals over in the series. That's pretty much it for the Florida Carolina.

Kyle Blondin (27:31.982)
scenario here Dallas and Edmonton very impressed with the way Edmonton's been playing very impressed and how it's not just McDavid not just dry sidle the Zach Hyman's the Evander Keynes the Corey Perry's have stepped up really in a big-time situation there you know they've had their injury woes a lot of just guys coming through when they needed it the most big goals being scored

So absolutely tremendous hockey being played by the Edmonton Oilers. Can they keep it up? Man, I was back and forth in this series. The Dallas Stars, I think, are destined to kind of make that Stanley Cup run. But I flip back to the Edmonton Oilers. I'm going to, know, right now, if you look at the Oilers on FanDuel, they're minus 118 to win the series, minus 120 on Beth 365, and minus 118, sorry, minus 110 on DK.

DraftKings actually has Dallas and Edmonton even at both at minus 110. But you can find Dallas at a plus on Beth365, minus 102 on FanDuel. depending on the site is depending on who thinks who's going to win and who's got the better odds of winning. So maybe do your shopping. Keep putting it out there. Again, reminder, you can follow the overrated experience on exit overrated, EXPER2.

That's overrated, E-X-P-E-R-2, also on Facebook and Instagram at overrated experience. So what do we got here? What do we got playing out? Well, we have one team that has a superstar goalie in Jay Cottinger, and the other team that continuously bounces back and forth. think Stuart Skinner is the guy they're to go with. But Calvin Picker may see some action in this game, or this series, sorry, that

if anything goes south I think Knobloch is not afraid to go back and forth coach the Edmonton Oilers if he sees fit so don't count on Stewart Skinner starting all these games but I do think the Edmonton Oilers win this in seven seven games and here's some of the bets I like all right so FanDuel Leon Dreisaitl four goals or more plus 120 he's a goal scoring machine he didn't come through for me last series

Kyle Blondin (29:50.888)
the way I thought because of the spread out scoring but I think that changes this series. Zach Hyman. I think he'll be in the mix. I think he'll pop in three goals in this series and that's plus 200. think there's value there. Connor McDavid, three goals or more. This kid, this guy can throw in, know, in three pucks behind Ottinger in one period. he's the best in the world. There's no question about it. He's a game changer every time he steps on the ice.

So there's the value at a fan duel. Bat365 also has dry sidle plus 130 to score four goals, which is a better odds than we've seen a fan duel. Mikko Rantanen, over 6 and 1 points in this series is minus 115. He leads the NHL.

playoffs as you know in points right now with 19 so why not he's gonna be the guy he's gonna be in the mix so seven points in the series which might be a high scoring series I don't think is too far-fetched for that to happen and that's it for Beth 365 DraftKings back to our dry saddle plus 135 even better than the first two so if you look at the four goals for Leon dry saddle plus 135

If you're on DraftKings, you're going to take that over the other two, but good value there. Well, what else are we going to say? It kicks off tomorrow night against, we're going to have a game, Carolina, Florida kick it off. Followed by a Wednesday, we have the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars. They're going to kick it off. Who do you like? Let me know on Twitter or X at overrated E-X-P-E-R-2. And I'm going to say this, the pleasure has been all been yours.

And the Over-Raid Experience is over and out. Until next time, bye-bye.