S3Ep27 - NHL Rd2 Betting Preview

To get you ready for round 2 of the NHL playoffs the Overrated Experience Sports Betting Podcast is here for you.

• We talked Future Bets to win the Stanley Cup & Con Smythe.
• Series by Series break down giving you what we think are value series bets.

Go Leafs Go... Can the Core 4 get it done against Florida???? ahhhh I don't know..

Follow Overrated Experience Pod on Twitter @OverratedExper2

Join the Overrated Experience Sports Betting Facebook Page

Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/overratedexperience/

Transcript

Kyle Blondin (00:01.174)
Welcome live to the Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Betting Podcast. I'm your host Kyle Blondin. This is the Overrated Experience, which is a sports betting podcast, also followed by my own preview of reviews. So like them or hate them, you're going to get them. And we're broadcasting live on Facebook and YouTube. Trust me, it's not easy to figure this out, how to get online. But that's maybe my age showing. But anyway, here we are.

The Overrated Experience Sports and Sports Spending Podcast will also be available on the various different platforms. If you can't listen live, Spotify, Apple Music, etc. You can follow the Overrated Experience at overrated.exper2. That's overrated.exper2 on X. And what we're going to talk about here predominantly is the NHL playoffs round two. I know what you're saying right now is that round one is

Totally not completed, but we're getting to the end. We got to get going to be ready for round two. So we got the Winnipeg Jets, St. Louis Blues tonight. We'll cover that a little bit and we'll go into each series. We're to look at some great bets, some insight, some thoughts, kind of maybe look back on, you know, some of the first round performances, what that means for some teams are no longer in the NHL hunt for the Stanley Cup. So more to come. Welcome. And I'll warn you ahead of time. This is a square point of view.

When it comes to sports betting, I'm not gonna lead you to a promised land when it comes to making the millions. I'm gonna give you the entertainment factor. I'm gonna give you my thoughts. I'm gonna give you the opportunity to respond as I chug a couple beers, have a few sips of water, keep myself going as long as this podcast goes. So here we go. I got my trusty notebook right here, ready to go. Just throwing it up there. So there's a lot of note taking, a lot of things I'll reference. You'll see me looking down at the notebook.

Background, I can tell it sucks, it's not the greatest background, it's the generic background that Riverside provides, that's our broadcast provider here. In the future I'm hoping to get a little more technologically advanced with a more of unique background. As my ear cuts off, my headphones cut off, so we'll see what's going on down the road and we'll get going. Try to be available on X as well, we're not, not able to get the profile up and running right for this broadcast, but maybe for the round three preview we'll get into it.

Kyle Blondin (02:19.894)
And then of course, as we travel towards September, the main focus is gonna be NFL football. You goddamn right. Football is the king of sports betting. And you'll find the overrated experience all over that week to week. And in between, we'll see what happens. Now just going into today. Today's Sunday, roughly 4.30 Eastern Standard Time. What's the lay of the land in the NHL right now? We had a pretty good, I'm gonna say out of 10.

I would say 8 out of 10 when it comes to entertainment value in the first round. Do we have any real surprises? Not really. I don't think we got a huge amount of upsets that, I don't think we got really many upsets. I think the Dallas Colorado series that wrapped out last night, we have Dallas moving on. Maybe the biggest event there was how Colorado fell apart midway through the third period. The story of Meekle Rantanen, former avalanche, former hurricane.

coming back to haunt the Colorado Avalanche last night scoring four points, the hat trick to knock out the Avalanche. You can't take a beating like that. In any other scenario, you have the Colorado Avalanche that made a business decision to move Mikko Rantanen in favor, and they got a pretty good haul, Natchez picked up and a few others. It's not a bad haul, however,

What you got was you're making a business decision because you had the fear that you couldn't re-up them, you couldn't bring them back, and you fear losing them for nothing. But did you really bank on where your franchise was at at the moment? You have a franchise that's looking to make a cup run this year, right? Yeah, the window's still open for the Avalanche years ahead. But the peak

year was in 2025. And they decided again to make a business decision to move on from Meekle Rantanen because they didn't want to get left empty handed. Who made that call? Was it Joe Sackett, GM of the Colorado Avalanche? Who was it ownership? Was there a policy that we don't want anybody, you know, who we're going to lose and leave without nothing? I don't get that philosophy. I get it.

Kyle Blondin (04:45.806)
I don't get it as an absolute. Right? The Colorado Avalanche could have rode McKinnon-Rantanen to the cup final this year. And you pissed it all away. You decided to be average. All right? It would have shocked me if the Avalanche made a run. But no, I'm not going to say no it wouldn't have. But when you get an event that happened last night, game seven.

where your former star guy you had the trade away due to a contractual reason, nothing else comes back and mows you down, embarrasses you. You have your superstar Nathan McKinnon. You know that guy's going ape shit. He's going ape shit cause he's a winner and he's absolutely disgusted. He looks over at Edmonton and says, you know, you know, the Oilers are going with dry saddle McKinnon and put the team on their back. Why didn't you let me have this?

You know, with Miko Ranthinen. The results are the results and the avalanche are moving out and the stars are moving on. So, well, we don't know who the stars are going to play yet, but the story about Miko Ranthinen is a big one. In the fallout in Colorado, you know, that it might, there might be a problem with McKinnon going down the road of not trusting management. What are the decision making? What's the philosophy? I mean, what's the goal here?

Nathan McKinnon is in his prime and then you pissed away another year to get multiple rings. They got that ring, you know, Nathan McKinnon has that ring, but who is it with? It was with Mika Rantunen. So there's gonna be a fallout in Colorado.

but it's gonna we're gonna see how it plays out but ugly for the avalanche absolute value and justification to not only make that trade with the carolina hurricanes but the sign ranting into a long-term contract absolute justification they're off the hook we'll see what happens but that's the series that tied up last night we have another game seven tonight winnipeg and

Kyle Blondin (06:58.966)
St. Louis, the St. Louis Blues. This has been a home team type of series. Interesting series. mean, when Winnipeg is away from home, they don't look like they can hang. Right? It gets away from them. It gets ugly. The Blues stomp on them. Right? We're talking about the President's Trophy winning team here in the Winnipeg Jets. And when they're on the road, which is abnormal compared to the regular season, that they are getting stomped. And it begins with Kyle Hellebock.

It begins with Halibut, right? He's just not stepping up, man. There are goaltenders in the playoffs that feel that you just can't beat them. And Sergei Bobrovski of the Florida Panthers, which we'll talk about in depth with the Leafs starting Monday, is one of those guys. He gets in your head, I can't beat him. I gotta have the perfect shot. I can't float one on that.

I have to have an open lane, I have to have the perfect one timer. If my aim is just off a little bit, if there's any doubt that I'm get the puck on net, I gotta get the puck to somebody else. It gets in their head. With Hellebuck, something's going on there, right? He's gonna be our 2024-25 Vezna Trophy winner in the NHL this year. There's hands down, it's not gonna change. He's up for the award, I think it's a slam dunk. But when you really...

tie in how he's performed in the playoffs and not just these playoffs. There's been some real question marks. Yes, he's made a couple of big saves over the last couple of games. You've seen paddle saves, wide open nets. Those are great highlights, but their end result is he's not stealing games. And that's part of the bread and butter of the Winnipeg Jets. Connor Hellebock is not stepping up the way they expect. And tonight though, redemption.

Your redemption right now is to move this Winnipeg Jets team on, to stand on your head, to perform, and to get to the next round. Can he do it? Jury's out. What's hurting the Winnipeg Jets and it's gonna really be a standout tonight is no Shifely. Shifely is out. And really, I mean, they need all hands up. Mark Shifely is a go-getter, he's a gamer, he's a difference maker in that Jets lineup.

Kyle Blondin (09:22.478)
Once again, one of the reasons why their president's trophy winning team. Can they get by? If they were on the road in St. Louis, I would say no. I still think that the Jets will somehow squeak out a win here tonight against the St. Louis Blues. And hats off to the St. Louis Blues. Jim Montgomery comes in. know, Boston, piss away Jim Montgomery. He comes into St. Louis, turns that team around. What do they have? A 14, 15 game winning streak to put them into the wild card?

absolutely outrageous. You know the real sign that coaching is a difference maker in the NHL. So Montgomery is an example of that. But I just think that that home ice advantage, the white out in Winnipeg is going to be the difference in the series. they're going to, the Jets, although I believe they're going to win this series, they're going to limp in against Dallas. They're going to open at home. That's the privilege they had for having the best overall record in the NHL, but they're going to limp.

in to that series against Dallas. And think the Dallas Stars are on, that stock is going up, that jet stock is going down. And most of it is because Hellebuck, Connor Hellebuck not playing at the level they need him to play at, elite level. And then the injuries are gonna pile up for the Jets. So we'll see what happens tonight. But one bet that really stands out to me here is.

Plus 150 on FanDuel for this game to go over 5.5? Do we think it's gonna be a grind out, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 game? I don't know man, I think the value's on the over. That 150, let's call keep in mind, if you've never joined us, the name of the podcast is the overrated experience as a reference to liking overs. That's the square side of me that doesn't take, you know, hey.

Entertainment does come into my decision making and that's kind of what I'm trying to get away from but I can't ignore the value that one team might start running up this score. And then you get into the third period where season's on the line. There's no tomorrow. There might be two empty net goals in a three, two game. You know, heading into the last five minutes. It might end in seven goals. So watch out. There's gonna have to be, there's different decision making on that ice when you're in a game seven.

Kyle Blondin (11:42.466)
and things get away from you. A 3-1 lead in the third period might work out. Last night Colorado, Dallas was going 1-0 in the third period, ended 4-2.

Kyle Blondin (11:54.031)
So we'll see what's happening there. We'll see the results, but I think the Jets are gonna pull it out. But like the over, take the over, plus 150. Now looking at some of the odds, now that we're gonna begin round two of, as I've used FanDuel, Bet365, and DraftKings as my North Star barometer on what the betting market looks like. Of course, there's many books out there, and I would encourage you to utilize those many books, because of the different odds, and if you decide to pick a future.

and you really need to know which book is going to give you the best value. So out of these three books, and we're looking at the overall odds to win the Stanley Cup now that we've weeded out, you know, half the teams in the playoffs, except one series. The Dallas Stars on FanDuel take top spot at 380, plus 380. Florida Panthers plus 420 in FanDuel. However, Florida kind of jumps to the top in many of the books with Beth 365 and FanDuel.

Carolina still remains a a top dog on fan to a plus 500 and Edmonton plus 550 Vegas plus 650 Washington plus 1000 the Leafs plus 1000 if you're gonna bet the least and I know many of you will You crazy sons of bitches in the t-dot that are waiting since 1967 and most of you haven't read there back in 1967 are gonna lay some cheddar on the maple Lisa plus 1000

Because if you look at FanDuel and Bet365, and know many Canadians in Toronto especially are on Bet365 and you're going with the Leafs, that's plus 700. Go make that FanDuel account right now at plus 1,000. If you're going to bet 500 bucks or 100 bucks on a future right now, don't waste your time on Bet365 if you're taking the Leafs. Take them on FanDuel and the various books depending on what it is. So as an example, if you like Dallas,

You want to go on DraftKings. They're plus 550. You don't want to go on FanDuel plus 380. Use your head. Use your options. As much as it can be bad, because it can be really bad, if you can handle the responsibility of gambling, that the accessibility to these sites is very fast, quick, and you get to bet down the next 10 minutes if you want it to. And that's going through the whole hoops of opening an account. So do your research. Do your homework.

Kyle Blondin (14:20.578)
Take the time to look at what odds are available to you and what makes most sense and what's gonna put more money in your pocket. Now when you look at Con Smythe for the NHL playoff MVP, the current odds, there might be some value here. There's a little bit of differentiation between the books. I'm gonna point out some of those. So again, I'm gonna use FanDuel, Bat365, and DraftKings. So on FanDuel, McDavid, Connor McDavid, McJesus, like some of you like to call him.

Man, the guy's best player in the NHL. There's no question. If there's gonna be a player that carries a team on his back, it's Conor McDavid.

What I do is I do respect the Edmonton Oilers. They at least don't hide that, fuck it, he's our guy. We're all in on Connor McDavid. We're gonna run the wheels off of Connor McDavid in his prime, him and Leon Dreisaitl, until he can't go no more. Or until he says, screw it, I'm out of Edmonton, I'm off to the Rangers, Detroit, Toronto, whatever it may be, which will happen at some point. But for now, you run the wheels off of this kid.

and he's plus 950 to win the Con Smythe for Angell WP. Mikko Rantinen, he's the flavor of the day, guys. I'm not saying it's a wrong flavor. I'm not saying a flavor you don't ride, and it shouldn't be your favorite flavor for the rest of these playoffs, because Dallas could make a run like anybody else. But man, the last two games of performance of Mikko Rantinen has been the reason why he shot up the Con Smythe odds here. He's plus 1200 on FanDuel to win the Con Smythe.

And if you really wanted to go with Mikko Ranthinen, you really want to go to Beth 365 because they got him at plus 1400. And you have Jake Ottinger. Man, people loving the stars. People loving the stars. Plus 1400 to win the Con Smythe on FanDuel, but you want to absolutely be on either DraftKings or 365 on that one because they got him a plus 1800. Leon Dreisaitl. He's been a horse. I don't think if they make a run that he's going to supersede McDavid.

Kyle Blondin (16:28.142)
in the playoffs for this, but there's every chance he can, because he can really run up the goal total, which I think will be, I guess, a thought factor for voters out there. So he's plus 1,500 on FanDuel, only 1,400 on both 365 and DraftKings. And if you go down further, you got to Sebastian Aho's plus 1,600. But Broski, so if we look at it this way, this is, again.

justification why you want to look around to different books if you're interested in putting some money down. Bobrovsky is a plus 1600 to win the Kahn Smythe on FanDuel, but plus 2200 to win on DraftKings. Let's look at that. You tell me based on what you've seen from Sergei Bobrovsky the last few years. Two years ago, cup run. On my back, let's go. They lose against Vegas. Last year, on my back, let's go. Cup.

winning team. All right. Now, the only time the Florida Panthers look beatable last year and this year is if he plays average. There is times in the playoffs where he could be down to that average factor, but for the majority of time, he's different, difference maker time, difference maker, Sergey Barovsky standing on his head. That again, he gets in your head, gets in your kitchen. You can't score. You cannot beat him.

You're not gonna run up three or four goals. You better play tight because if you give up three or four goals, you're not coming back. That's the value that Sergei Bobrovsky offers. That is value in the betting world plus 2200 should be something you're considering. And then when you go down the aisle, you got, you know, Barkov plus 1700, Jack Eichel plus 1900. I mean, he had a slow start so far in the playoffs, but he can get it going.

You can get get hot. We'll see what happens there. And it's looking at the first round performance and looking at the leaderboard in the points production and goal scoring. Miko Rantanen, Miko, Miko Rantanen, 12 points, five goals, seven assists, the only player ever to have a hat trick in a third period in Stanley Cup playoffs. Is that status correct? That's what I heard last night. Four points in the third period last night really inflating his

Kyle Blondin (18:51.456)
overall series support and they're banking on him to be a difference maker in Dallas. McKinnon, 11.7 goals, four points. And I'm sure Nathan McKinnon is absolutely going off and probably will have a few words to say to Joe Sackack on what occurred during the season getting rid of Miko Ranthanen. And you go down the board, not surprising, you see Connor McDavid, you have Adrian Kemp, for the Kings, had a great first round and a loss though. Dry saddle, time points, three goals, seven assists.

I really thought he would hit that five goal mark. Really didn't do it, but I think it's gonna be brighter things ahead for the Edmonton Oilers and Leon Dreisaitl as far as statistics. And you got Kiel Kiprizov, what a playoff for him. I mean, he was shining against the Vegas Golden Knights till they kind of shut him down near the end.

But he just came out to show the rest of the world what a skilled player he is in Minnesota. Kyle Connor, gonna need him big tonight, four goals and five assists. He can add to that total tonight. Willie Nylander, three goals, six assists, nine points. And as I go down to number 12, which I won't even bother going, is there any other leaf there? No, no there's not. Where's Austin Matthews? All right.

No, don't get me wrong, I'll get into this. Like, I want him to succeed. And yes, did he score a goal in a pivotal game six against Ottawa? Yes, he did. But let's face it, he's not... McKinnon. He's not Connor McDavid.

You know, he's not Leon Dreisaitl. So let's temper it. Let's temper what our expectations are, guess, with the hopes until he shows it. Forget it.

Kyle Blondin (20:39.16)
So what else are we going to talk about here? Well, we're going to move on to the playoffs and we'll talk at the end, maybe about a few news and notes in the NHL. Round two, live from Toronto Monday night, where I resonate. We bleed blue and white, Toronto Maple Leaf country. A little belief in the first round. We can see it slowly coming, slowly coming.

Stop your car, take a look to your right. The bus stops, you're seeing a few Leaf hats here. Leaf jerseys here and there. Little more and more, people are not afraid anymore. It's okay, I'm gonna support the Toronto Maple Leafs. I'm gonna get out there. I'm not gonna expect the worst, but I'm not gonna overdo it either. I found myself in a situation where, you know, I'm seeing Ottawa jerseys in the local area here. You know, three or four years ago, put a trash talk. Would've ran my mouth.

about Toronto running them out of the playoffs. But I'm beyond that now. Maybe it's maturity, maybe it's realism that I'm gonna enjoy the ride for the Maple Leafs. But we're gonna look at the reality is that for nine years, I guess it's nine years, that the core four has been put together. And again, Taveras maybe not there the whole time, but the core four for the lengthy period of time that I've witnessed them in the playoffs have not necessarily.

Move the needle into the positive direction that the hopes of a Stanley Cup are coming to Toronto, but Let's have fun with it. It's probably wear the jerseys badly put the hats on Cheers have a few beers have a few laughs Let's not let's cut the shit though. Okay about this team and the current makeup of this maple leaf team It's go time now or it's never gonna be go time for this group. All right You've burned the bridge

You've taken too long. You've missed opportunities. For me to have any empathy for the Toronto Maple Leafs in this series going against arguably the best team in the NHL. Defending Stanley Cup champion, Florida Panthers.

Kyle Blondin (22:54.37)
taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs, what are we gonna get here? Right, what are we gonna get? We're gonna tell you that that Tampa Bay series, I thought Tampa Bay would put up more of a run here, put up more of a fight, maybe even win that series. Hell no. Florida is suffocating, they're bullies, and they're better than you. Simple as that.

Kyle Blondin (23:20.088)
Water Panthers play at such a pace.

Such a pace that there's no way you feel comfortable. Whether it's five on five, whether it's a power play, the Florida Panthers are the most aggressive team in the NHL. They are the team that makes you feel uncomfortable. You're thinking that I have to make a decision with the puck in an instant because they're going to be all over me and they're going to counter attack and score.

All right, the Florida Panthers. If you look at the top five goal scorers in that series against Tampa Bay, Sam Benet, sorry, Sam Reinhart led with two goals and four assists. And then four other guys, five points. That's Benet, Tichak, Anton Lindell, Alexander Barkov. They're pretty strong across all, you know, their lineup. I mean, the goal scoring can come from anywhere. Sam Benet's gonna pose a problem for the Leafs.

All right. They don't have that game. They don't necessarily have that top six forward. That's going to be in the face of Panther players. All right. Is Matthew Nias working to that guy? He might. He might. Right. He scored three goals against the senators. Impressive. Noticeable. Watch for that in this series. Is Austin Matthews noticeable? Is Mitch Marner noticeable? Is William Nylander noticeable? You sure we're getting at this?

Is John Tavares noticeable? Are they noticeable for the wrong reasons? Right? So for the Leafs to win this series, there is no chance if they can't become successful in the power play. Simple as that. Their superstars have to be difference makers and actually produce. I don't give a shit. If Austin Matthews

Kyle Blondin (25:19.662)
looks great but can't score. Hits four posts. Arguably, hey, he was inches wide. No, he has to be inches on point. Simple as that. He has to produce to be successful. This is your barometer, Toronto. This is the barometer. It is this team got what it takes. All right? The jury's out here. I mean, the jury is out. If they get spanked like they did last year in five games, then it's going to be a problem.

Okay, so I gotta believe that the Leafs gonna show up a little better, a little more impactful than they were last year. But you gotta prove it, show it, show your hand. Willie Nylander led with nine points in the series. You gotta believe he's gonna be a force again. Okay, he's gonna be a force.

Kyle Blondin (26:13.792)
Also, when we look at the rest of the series, are we going to see? We're going to see Ruff play. Can they keep up with Sam Bennett? I don't know. I don't know. Marshawn is going to play a problem like he always has with Lisa in Boston. what's going on there? That's why you got to keep your Bluetooth off. Let me get my Bluetooth off. okay.

Alright, so Leafs, here's my predictions guys. It's gonna be, I hate to say it, if you're a Leaf fan, cover your ears, cover your ears.

It's gonna be four and six.

Show me, show me the money. I'm down with a win. I'm down with the Maple Leafs winning the series moving on to the conference finals. But realism, reality hits me. I don't like the chances against the Florida Panthers. All right. So Florida in six and some of the bets that stand out to me here is Willie Nylander on FanDuel to have seven or more points in the series.

I look at it of any Lee forward that I feel he's going to be the most effective against Florida, whether it be on special teams, power play, four on four or five on five. I think you'll see the consistency in Willie Nylander putting up points out of the court for he's the one I believe in the most. So I like that plus two 25 seven plus or more points in the series on fan duel Matthew nice two goals or more plus 100 even money. He's going to be a factor.

Kyle Blondin (28:00.654)
on the power play, he's gonna pop a couple in. This is kind of where his value as a power forward's gonna pay off. He's gonna be in front of the net, he's gonna pop in a rebound, he's gonna be in a scramble and put one home. Sam Reinhardt, great goal scorer for the Florida Panthers, four plus goals in the series, he looks at plus 330. You he only had two goals in the first series.

But against Elise, I think he's gonna pop a few more. I think he's gonna have a game where Elise has two goals and chips in with another goal or more in the rest of the series.

So I find that value plus 330. Go over to bet365, which not as impressed with the number of player series values that I'm seeing here, but I did see Willie Nylander over two and a half goals at plus 135. There's value there. Again, I think Willie Nylander is going to be the most effective leaf in this series. On DraftKings, Sam Bennett to have over four and a half points plus 130.

He's the type of player that's gonna give the Leafs problems. can't say it enough. Sam Bennett is gonna be a problem. He's gonna be a thorn. He's gonna be a pain in the ass for the Maple Leaf defenseman. And he's gonna somehow terrorize the Leafs for at least five points, if not more. You he had five points in the series against Tampa Bay. And that's my look. And the series starts on Monday. And we go May 8th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 14th, 16th, 18th. Focal point being a Friday, game three.

Get your beer out, your keg out, get your tailgating going. It's go time on Friday in Florida. But Monday kicks off and we'll see what happens. And just one note, know, the Tampa Florida series, I did bet it, I bet it a lot. Every night I was betting over, unders, under, overs, whatever the fuck you want to call it, in that series. And to find out that Victor Headman was playing with what, a cracked bone, a broken leg?

Kyle Blondin (30:06.936)
And I was thinking to myself watching the series, man, he looks slow. He looked like he was half interested. And you tell me as the NHL has creeped into engaging the betting world that one of the premier defensemen in the NHL, can't, I shouldn't know before wagering on your sponsored, you know, various different betting sites that one of the best defensemen in the world is playing with one leg. That's unacceptable.

You wouldn't accept it in the NFL. Why were you accepting it in the NHL?

Kyle Blondin (30:41.72)
That's significant news. It's also the NHL has sponsored, know, these various pick your bracket. Well, maybe I was going to take Tampa Bay because I liked Victor Headman on the point was that kind of ick factor that put my decision to go with Tampa. Broken leg may have turned me away from that decision to go with Tampa Bay. So get your head out of your ass, NHL with this whole betting.

slash injury concealment. It's getting ridiculous. It's getting ridiculous. So I'll even put a caveat on the bets I'm giving you. I mean, could tell you William Nylander is going to have seven plus points, but is he playing with a broken hand? I don't know. Would that affect me telling you that I think that he'll have seven points? You're goddamn right it would. So I don't know why we're holding these injuries back. The bigger picture is that you have income.

based on sponsorship for betting, and you have to be true to it and be legit. That's not legit. It's BS. All right, Carolina. Washington, interesting series, interesting series. Carolina, know, man, I really don't think there was much that they really would fear against the New Jersey Devils. They kind of spanked them. New Jersey had one good game.

pissed away a 3-0 game in the final game that they eventually lost. Carolina again one of the betting favorites. Oh by the way I should have said on the various sites in the Florida Toronto series Florida heavy favorite minus 176 on FanDuel minus 180 on 365 minus 170 on DraftKings plus 146 for Toronto on FanDuel plus 150 on Bath365 and plus 145 on DraftKings.

Carolina, the favorite here, know, minus 164 on FanDuel in the series, minus 170 on Bath365, minus 160 on DraftKings. Washington, if you like, there, cup of tea, plus 136 on FanDuel, plus 145 on Bath365, and plus 140 on DraftKings. So let's just do Education 101 on various sportsbooks. If I like Washington,

Kyle Blondin (33:03.426)
You're goddamn right, I'm going for the Bet365 option at plus 145. If I like Carolina, I'm going for DraftKings because they had the lowest use at minus 160.

Do your shop. Interesting is Washington had the best record in the Eastern Conference, so they will have almost advantage. Carolina, heavy betting favorite as we just talked about. Sebastian Ajo is really their go-to guy in Carolina. They do spread out their scoring, but Sebastian Ajo, I find quietly leads his team and produces points. He's a great player, right? Followed by Shepchenkoff.

who had actually five goals, sneaky five goals, I didn't pay attention to that. Seth Jarvis, two goals, three assists. Gostebert, who was limping into the playoffs, went up with four points. And then Jackson Blake, never heard of this guy. Jackson Blake, one goal, three assists. Outside of Sebastian Ajo and maybe Shevchenkoff, five goals. Nothing really blowing me away about the Carolina offense, but they did get the job done. They do have the talent. Washington side.

I think we lose sight on some of the players that make up this roster because of the whole OV chase for the Gretzky record. And the fact that he's producing at his age and it's still a factor. Right now he's a goal scoring specialist, right? He's lined up in the power play. He's a real threat. I like him because he's going to put a puck on net anytime he can. And he should because he's got a howitzer and he's just a naturally gifted.

all-time great goal scorer. But Dylan Strom led this team with two goals and seven assists. And Dylan Strom is an interesting story. He's a first round pick, early first round pick of the Arizona Coyotes. And he's bounced around to Chicago and other teams and has found a home in Washington. And playing like an early first round pick. So he's gonna be a factor in the series. What a player. I like that story.

Kyle Blondin (35:09.742)
player that's kind of ended down and out, bouncing around, almost on the verge of being a bust, and reinvents himself, and has become a mainstay in Washington. Kudos to the Capitals for recognizing the value of bringing him on board. Ovechkin, four goals in the series against Montreal, really, really put a dart in the Canadians' hopes once he scored that opening goal in that elimination game.

game six Connor McMichael nice player there he's a difference maker two three goals two assists Tommy Wilson two goals and three assists but but game five Bell Center place going absolutely ape shit Montreal up two to one

And so Tom Wilson completely wrecks. I can't even remember who was, but he fucking smoked the Montreal Canadiens. I just lost train of thought who it was he hit. Smoked them, puck comes down the ice, Washington turns it around, ties it up, eventually wins the hockey game, moves on to game six and eliminates the Montreal Canadiens. One hit. One hit.

stopped the Habs momentum, stopped the Montreal gains, turned the series around, stomped out the Canadians for good. Tom Wilson was an absolute beast, and he'll be a beast in this series. How do these two teams match up? I think we're underestimating the Washington Capitals here. I'll tell you what. I'm take Washington in seventh. I'll take that plus 145 on Beth 365. Actually, I'm banned.

from Beth 365, so I'm have to go to DraftKings and take the Washington Capitals.

Kyle Blondin (37:06.742)
I like the mix of Tom Wilson is going to be a problem. He is going to be a factor where the Carolina hurricanes are going to be the Seth Jarvis's of the world, the Sebastian Ahos, the Shevetchenkoffs are going to be skating around thinking, where's Tom Wilson? Is he on the bench? Is on the ice? I got to keep my head up because of Tom Wilson. He's going to fuck me up if I hit my heads down. He's going to be in the back of their heads. He's going to be a factor.

They're going to take extra pokes on him. They're going to be guys that are going to go out of the way to kind of show that they're going to stand up to Tom Wilson. He is going to be a beast in this series. You watch it. All right. And I think that's going to lead to the demise of the Carolina Hurricanes. Dylan Strom's going to have a strong series. Connor McMichael is going to have a strong series. You're also going to have, again, Alex Ovechkin is going to do his part. He's going to score us four or five goals. So what he's going to do.

That's what he's there for. That's what he does best. And in that Carolina, Frederick Anderson should be back. He got knocked out the devil series concussion. least I believe that's what it was. They never tell the truth. So I don't know. He also decided a one year extension for 2.75 million. So Carolina still has faith in him, even though he's injured every four days. But is there a chance we're to see Peter Kocheknoff cough? can't butcher his name, but he was in the series against the devils.

Step below Freddie Anderson. I think if Freddie Anderson gets hurt again, or is not ready to go by game one, which he should be.

That's not going to be good news for the Carolina Hurricanes. Logan Thompson played spectacular against Canadians. He had his moments. He's a good goalie. He's not amazing. He's not, he's not Bobrovsky. He's not, you know, he's not a Oughton-Jer, but he is a guy that can get hot and not be a negative detractor for the Washington Capitals. had a great season. So I don't worry about him at all.

Kyle Blondin (39:13.774)
Series kicks off on Tuesday and then Thursday both starting in Washington, the capital, DC. So we look at some of the betting going on here. Alex Ovechkin on FanDuel, four plus goals, plus 160. I like it. Powerplay, Powerplay, one-timer, one-timer. It's going to happen. Connor McMichael, I talked about, I liked his game. Two goals or more in this series.

He had three goals in the series against Montreal. I think he's gonna produce, he's a guy. That's gonna get things done. Beth365 didn't really find anything too appealing on here to be worth mentioning, nothing there. Draft Kings, Undership Tchenkov of the Carolina Hurricanes. Three plus goals, plus 240. Yeah, he had five goals. Again, the Devil Series. He's gonna put the puck on net. He's gonna be a factor. He's gonna be some goals scored in the series.

And I really think there's going to be at least one ridiculously stupid game here, as we've seen the Carolina, both Carolina and Washington had in their respective series where things just got out of hand offensively. So the bet of 10 plus goals in a single game plus 200, there's value there. There's absolute value there. It's going to happen. All right. Other news and notes in the series, Taylor Hall, Carolina Hurricanes signs a three year extension.

$9.5 million over three years. But again, Washington in seven. Thought I had another note on this. I gonna talk about not necessarily this series, but DraftKings. At the beginning of round one, they had a lot more bets that were, will this series have this? How many of the wild card teams will advance? How many shutouts will there be in the actual round?

So they didn't have that, or at least I could find it on DraftKings, but I expect because Washington, sorry, because of Winnipeg and St. Louis are still going. That has been delayed, so we'll see what happens with that, but keep an eye out for that. Some interesting bets there. Never onto a barn burner. You like that term, barn burner? The Edmonton Oilers take on the Vegas Golden Knights. Now the Edmonton Oilers, I thought, would bow out to the LA Kings.

Kyle Blondin (41:39.715)
I didn't think they would have more than Conor Mcdaven and Dry Saddle, which I think could on their own have taken out anybody in the NHL. However, they got the support, especially later in the series from other guys on the roster. Even if Ander Kane returning got a few goals, was a factor in this series. Stuart Skinner got chased, which I thought would happen. Calvin Pickard now in looks to be the starting goaltender. Well, who's kidding ourselves? We, I didn't see this bet, but come on.

What game do we think that we'll see another Stuart skitter signing or citing not signing sighting a Stuart skinner sighting from the Edmonton Oilers. They're going to bounce back and forth. They're not locked into one guy. They're going to jump back and forth between the two. No question. It's a, it's a fucking tire fire for the goaltending in Edmonton and they're hoping that the rest of the roster makes up for it.

Matthias Akholm out again. The thought was he would only not be available in that first round. He won't be there again. There's no upside to him not being there. It's going to be a taxing on their defense core. It's been a comedy act with Nurse and Bouchard defensively. if there's a team that's going to take advantage of it, it's the Golden Knights. The LA Kings played more of a defensive role. Counterattack, where the Vegas Golden Knights are a little more aggressive.

You know, they got, you know, offensive minded. So we're gonna see some goals in this series and I like it, man. There's gonna be a lot of shit going on in the series. A lot of goals. I think it's gonna get down right out of hand. It's gonna get it right out of hand. Edmonton's a minus 1.14 favorite on FanDuel. Minus 1.15 on both Bet365 and DraftKings. Vegas minus 1.05. FanDuel and 3.65. And DraftKings, so all three across the board. Pretty similar.

I'm going to say the Edmonton Oilers win this series in six. I was high in the first round that the Vegas Gold Knight value was at least to get to the Stanley Cup final. But the way Edmonton has reinvigorated their hopes that maybe they don't have quite the fall off we expected. Maybe they were able to recover from those injuries and not as banged up as we thought they were. Yes, their goaltending is a problem.

Kyle Blondin (44:08.856)
But I think that with Connor McDavid and Leon Dreisaitl, that it might overshadow a slow starting Jack Eichel, which maybe not. think he's going to step up. But Edmonton's Achilles Hill is going to be the goaltending. Simple as that, goaltending. Can they keep the puck out of the net? They're just going to score six goals, but will they give up seven? Which could very well happen. McDavid obviously led, him and Dreisaitl, 11 and 10 points respective for the Edmonton Oilers.

Evan Bouchard, seven points for those being goals from the D-Man.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins solid five points. Connor Brown, Connor Brown, Journeyman Connie Brown, five points effective.

Kyle Blondin (44:56.724)
On the Vegas side, Tomas Heldl, five points, three goals, two assists. Eichel five points, Mark Stone four points, Shea Theodore, Brett Houdin four and three points. Really nothing standing out, nothing spectacular. Nobody putting the team on their back, but they got the job done against the Minnesota Wild. It did not look good halfway through that series. And Vegas, Aiden Hill, solid goaltender, he's in that.

You know he's going to be their guy. Edmonton, it's going to be a carousel of goaltenders in and out, out and in, in and out. Injuries talked about, Mateus Echol for the Oilers, Pavel Deve... I can't even pronounce his name. Day-to-day, that we'll see what happens. That makes a difference there for the Vegas Golden Knights, but I'm sure they got the depth. This series kicks off Tuesday. It's going to be the late game live from Vegas. Man, that'd be fun to go to Vegas just to follow.

couple games stay in Vegas enjoy the joy of the time there oh to dream oh to dream FanDuel minus 114 I think the solid value for the Oilers to win the series you probably what you know I if I was going to take that which you probably probably will still you probably want to put a little more cheddar on it to make it worthwhile Dry Cytl on FanDuel plus 135 for four goals or more

I'm gonna pencil that in. I know he got three goals in the first series against the LA Kings, but again, I think it's gonna be a little more of a shit show of goals. So look at Leon Dreisaitl. Any props with him goal scoring, there's That 365, you have Conor McDavid to lead, have over two and a half goals, plus even money, plus 100. How does he, he's got the puck in his stick. plays like 40 fucking minutes a night. So it's, I think it's a no brainer, right?

hat-trick in one game that's dry saddle to have over three and a half goals in this series as well at better odds than fan duel so if you have both fan duel and bet 365 focus your efforts on that bet at plus 160 for dry saddle to score four more goals draft kings Connor McDavid to have most points in the series plus 130 Vander Kane to have two plus goals he had a couple goals he's gonna be a factor

Kyle Blondin (47:19.084)
And this again is going to be a shit show of goals scored I think. So plus 145 good value there for Evander Kane. Dry saddle again back to the four goals or more plus 185. But even look at plus five goals or more plus 425. This is going to go six games if not seven. You think dry saddle is not going to be factor? He's going to go off in at least one game. A three or four. Three goals at least. He's going to have a hat trick. He's going to have something. Dry saddle is the guy.

Mark this down. Write it down. Okay, wait, you ready? Got that pen? All right, so it's gonna be any time goal, any time game, 10 goals or more in one of those games, plus 145, it's gonna happen at least once, if not twice. It's gonna get out of hand, guys. It's gonna get out of hand. And if I look at the Dallas series, well, I don't know who they're playing, right? So I'm not gonna touch that right now.

but they got obviously the hot hand with Mikko Rantinen, Rope Hintz, seven points as well, Wyatt Johnson, Thomas Hurley, Hurley, sorry, defenseman. was part of the Four Nations for Canada. He's really moving up the ladder of recognizable defensemen in the NHL, solid game there. Tyler Sagan, veteran Stanley Cup champion with the Bruins, back, produced four points, couple goals here and there.

We don't know the status of Jason Robertson and Mikko Heiskanen Both seem like they were potentially options late in the series against the Colorado Avalanche but never happened So is Robinson closer than Heiskanen? I don't know Is Heskenen closer than Robinson? I don't know NHL? What the fuck are you doing on injuries? I don't know what you're doing because I can't tell and those are two significant players

that I would love to know from a betting standpoint, are they going to be available in the series or are they not? And one note I did miss in the Leafs series, Aaron Echlad will miss game one, defenseman for the Florida Panthers, being suspended for the elbow to the face in that final game or that game five, or game four against the Tampa Bay Lightning. So keep that in mind as the Florida Panthers are still loaded.

Kyle Blondin (49:42.159)
all around the roster, but they're going to miss Aaron Echblad for game one. So just some other news and notes to the NHL. Quick thoughts. Coaching change in New York, Mike Sullivan moves from Pittsburgh. Suddenly he's no good for Pittsburgh, but the Rangers feel he's the reason, he's the man that can lead this team. They probably don't want to break up that roster. That roster was expected to make a playoff run, not just make the playoffs, which he couldn't do, but actually make a run and make a trip to the Stanley Cup final.

Rick Tauke is out in Vancouver, decided not to come back. We don't know the real story of what was going on. Did he turn down a big package to get closer to the East coast? Maybe. Let's see what happens. Perfect fit in Philly. Makes sense. Let's see what happened. Shrifely out, we talked about that. World championships for you hockey fans out there. Traditionally for the teams that don't make the playoffs, many of the players go over and represent their home countries.

in the World Ice Hockey Championships. This year's tournament will take place May 9th to 25th in Denmark. Some good betting options there. Check out the rosters. Canada, solid roster. I mean, you look at the players, not necessarily the Sidney Crosby's of the world. But when you look at the European rosters, the Czech Republic is an example. Pasternak is there. Sweden's pretty loaded.

When look at their roster, so a lot of the European teams obviously take this more of a priority than the Canadian US teams do. Actually, the US team has a very solid young team. Take a look at their roster. Also, Marc Andre Fleury, legendary goaltender, best known for his time in the Pittsburgh Penguins, first overall pick back in the day, 21 year career comes to an end, and still remaining without coaches are the Anaheim Ducks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins.

Chicago Blackhawks Philadelphia Flyers Vancouver Canucks in the Seattle Kraken So a lot of movement there a lot of cheapskate teams that will not provide You know big dollars for coaches even though the coaches like a Jim Montgomery has shown Can't make a difference between a playoff team and a non playoff team

Kyle Blondin (51:59.022)
And that's it for the overrated experience. So I hope you enjoyed the journey here with me here live on Facebook and YouTube. We'll put this up as a podcast as well. You can find it on your Spotify, Apple podcasts, everywhere you can find your podcasts will be seen. And you can follow us at overrated experience, overrated EXPER2. That's overrated EXPER2 and that's on X. Let us know that you listen to the show.

Let us know your thoughts, respond to tweets, whatever you want to do. But this pleasure was all yours in this live streaming. I did it for you. The Wolf Rated Experience right now is over and out. Bye bye.